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One things for certain, Trump's advantage among independents he had over Clinton in 2016 seems to have vanished. Independents don't dislike Biden anywhere near as much as they disliked Clinton.
Very true. Speaking of that. Here's something I found that is interesting when I was checking or delving deep into the polls. In 2016 according to Gallup 25% of all Americans disliked and didn’t want neither Trump nor Clinton to become their next president. The dislike factor or the hate factor depending on how one’s view this.
One in Four Americans Dislike Both Presidential Candidates
According to the exit polls, these folks who didn’t want neither candidate broke for Trump 47-30 over Clinton. Trump’s favorable back then was at 36%, Hillary’s 38% nationally.
What I’m seeing today using RCP favorable averaging is Trump is up from 36 to 41% nationally, Biden up from Hillary's 38% to 44% nationally with those who disliked both candidates down from 25% to 14%. Being this election is a referendum on Trump, I expect those who dislike both candidates to break for Biden this time around instead of going to Trump as they did in 2016. An even split would benefit Biden, but most polls show Biden winning this dislike both candidate group. In 2016, 6% of all Americans voted third party, against Trump and against Hillary Clinton. I don’t expect that high of a number in 2020. Probably closer to the normal average of 1.5%. The disliked of both candidates are way down, also instead of polls showing at the end of May 2016 13% stating they would vote third party, at the end of May 2020, only 4% are doing so. Advantage Biden in my book.
Am I reading this right, time will tell.