• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Electoral College Map: Biden holds a solid lead over Trump

BrotherFease

BrotherFease

DP Veteran
Joined
Jun 15, 2019
Messages
5,729
Reaction score
3,825
Location
Western New York
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Moderate
I am not saying this to be anti-Trump, but his election outlook is not looking good.

Joe Biden is leading comfortable in 14 states, worth 183 electoral college votes. Donald Trump on the other hand, leads comfortably in 20 states worth 125 electoral college votes.

That leaves 17 states as toss-ups. Keep in mind I am using the polling data from RCP and 538.

When you look at the so-called toss-up states, they lean mostly toward Biden.

Biden - Nevada (6), Arizona (11), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Penn (20), New Hampshire (4), Maine (3), Virginia (13), and Florida (29).

That's 12 out of 17. He needs at least 87 more to win.

Trump - Texas (38), Iowa (6), Georgia (16), and North Carolina (15).

Ohio is pretty much even. If we averaged them together the 2020 polls, it would be Biden by a hair.

Colorado, Maine, and Virginia are approaching safe territory for Biden. He's mostly registering in double digits in those states, but RCP still has it listed as a toss-ups and I am going to air on the side of conservative.

You can call this "fake news" all you want, but it doesn't look good for Trump.

My sources:

Ohio President: general election Polls | FiveThirtyEight

RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - Battle for White House
 
BrotherFease said:
I am not saying this to be anti-Trump, but his election outlook is not looking good.

Joe Biden is leading comfortable in 14 states, worth 183 electoral college votes. Donald Trump on the other hand, leads comfortably in 20 states worth 125 electoral college votes.

That leaves 17 states as toss-ups. Keep in mind I am using the polling data from RCP and 538.

When you look at the so-called toss-up states, they lean mostly toward Biden.

Biden - Nevada (6), Arizona (11), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Penn (20), New Hampshire (4), Maine (3), Virginia (13), and Florida (29).

That's 12 out of 17. He needs at least 87 more to win.

Trump - Texas (38), Iowa (6), Georgia (16), and North Carolina (15).

Ohio is pretty much even. If we averaged them together the 2020 polls, it would be Biden by a hair.

Colorado, Maine, and Virginia are approaching safe territory for Biden. He's mostly registering in double digits in those states, but RCP still has it listed as a toss-ups and I am going to air on the side of conservative.

You can call this "fake news" all you want, but it doesn't look good for Trump.

My sources:

Ohio President: general election Polls | FiveThirtyEight

RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - Battle for White House
Click to expand...

In the Trump era I just don't know how reliable polls actually are. There are a lot of closet Trumpers who apparently lie during polling. While Biden's lead seems bigger than Hillary's was, let's not forget that pretty much everyone on the planet believed that Trump never had a chance, to the point Hillary didn't even bother writing a concession speech. On top of that, we are still months away from the election and the economy has plenty of time to improve and we may even come up with virus treatments and a vaccine before the election. Trump has a huge basically unspent war chest and revelations are bound to come out about Obamagate and Ukrainegate, whether true or not. Conclusion: If I were the left I wouldn't be popping the cork on the bottle like they did in 2016.
 
Don't be counting chickens at this point. I do think that Biden goes in this with a leg up, but the Democrats can still blow it.
 
Ikari said:
Don't be counting chickens at this point. I do think that Biden goes in this with a leg up, but the Democrats can still blow it.
Click to expand...

True. I think so much will depend on who he picks for his running mate. If he picks an incredibly unlikeable and uncharismatic apparatchik like Kamala Harris, a woman who appears just slightly less unpopular than terminally metastasized bone cancer in the black community, he is asking to fail.
 
Moderate Right said:
In the Trump era I just don't know how reliable polls actually are. There are a lot of closet Trumpers who apparently lie during polling. While Biden's lead seems bigger than Hillary's was, let's not forget that pretty much everyone on the planet believed that Trump never had a chance, to the point Hillary didn't even bother writing a concession speech. On top of that, we are still months away from the election and the economy has plenty of time to improve and we may even come up with virus treatments and a vaccine before the election. Trump has a huge basically unspent war chest and revelations are bound to come out about Obamagate and Ukrainegate, whether true or not. Conclusion: If I were the left I wouldn't be popping the cork on the bottle like they did in 2016.
Click to expand...

Nobody should be popping any cork or feel complacent, but if the election were held today, Biden would win.

Obamagate or Ukrainegate doesn't have any traction beyond the mouth pieces of the Fox News network or right-wing media outlets. If you bring up Ukraine, then you open the floodgates to Trump asking a foreign government for dirt on a political opponent, which is illegal, and that Hunter banking off of his father's name is no different than Trump's kids making millions off of their father's name.
 
Moderate Right said:
In the Trump era I just don't know how reliable polls actually are. There are a lot of closet Trumpers who apparently lie during polling. While Biden's lead seems bigger than Hillary's was, let's not forget that pretty much everyone on the planet believed that Trump never had a chance, to the point Hillary didn't even bother writing a concession speech. On top of that, we are still months away from the election and the economy has plenty of time to improve and we may even come up with virus treatments and a vaccine before the election. Trump has a huge basically unspent war chest and revelations are bound to come out about Obamagate and Ukrainegate, whether true or not. Conclusion: If I were the left I wouldn't be popping the cork on the bottle like they did in 2016.
Click to expand...

Very true. Thus far, while Biden is ahead, it will be interesting to see how this plays in the swing states after his running mate is chosen and when the debates happen.
 
Felis Leo said:
True. I think so much will depend on who he picks for his running mate. If he picks an incredibly unlikeable and uncharismatic apparatchik like Kamala Harris, a woman who appears just slightly less unpopular than terminally metastasized bone cancer in the black community, he is asking to fail.
Click to expand...

I don't think Biden's VP will make any difference, unless he picks Stacey Abrams or Sally Yates. I am assuming Biden is going to play it safe and pick somebody seen as at least competent.
 
Felis Leo said:
True. I think so much will depend on who he picks for his running mate. If he picks an incredibly unlikeable and uncharismatic apparatchik like Kamala Harris, a woman who appears just slightly less unpopular than terminally metastasized bone cancer in the black community, he is asking to fail.
Click to expand...

While it's "cool" to speculate on VP, I honestly don't recall VP choice ever making a difference to people.

Unless VP has a last name of Obama, or maybe unless it's Bernie or Oprah, I just don't see it mattering whatsoever.

BrotherFease said:
I don't think Biden's VP will make any difference, unless he picks Stacey Abrams or Sally Yates.
Click to expand...

Sorry, I don't think choosing Abrams or Yates will make a difference either.

BrotherFease said:
Nobody should be popping any cork or feel complacent, but if the election were held today, Biden would win.
Click to expand...

I don't believe that necessarily. It's much easier to answer a poll than to get off your ass and go out and vote. Election will be determined by number of people who end up NOT voting, and polls do not seem to reflect that well.
 
Last edited:
BrotherFease said:
Nobody should be popping any cork or feel complacent, but if the election were held today, Biden would win.

Obamagate or Ukrainegate doesn't have any traction beyond the mouth pieces of the Fox News network or right-wing media outlets. If you bring up Ukraine, then you open the floodgates to Trump asking a foreign government for dirt on a political opponent, which is illegal, and that Hunter banking off of his father's name is no different than Trump's kids making millions off of their father's name.
Click to expand...

1. The election is not being held today

2. If the 2016 election would have been held on Nov 7th instead of Nov 8th, Hillary would have won (I don't think so)

Hey, I'm not a Trumper but, as I said, the polls under Trump are fairly inaccurate. They can't really be trusted because there are a lot of closet Trumpers. I'm not even saying that Biden won't win. I'm just saying that anyone who wants to bet on the race would be smart not to bet very much.
 
Felis Leo said:
Very true. Thus far, while Biden is ahead, it will be interesting to see how this plays in the swing states after his running mate is chosen and when the debates happen.
Click to expand...

I don't think either Michigan or Florida were very happy with lock down orders. I see Trump winning both of these two.
 
After his latest...and racist...gaffe, Joe's political future is probably now in doubt as far as the DNC is concerned
 
BrotherFease said:
I am not saying this to be anti-Trump, but his election outlook is not looking good.

Joe Biden is leading comfortable in 14 states, worth 183 electoral college votes. Donald Trump on the other hand, leads comfortably in 20 states worth 125 electoral college votes.

That leaves 17 states as toss-ups. Keep in mind I am using the polling data from RCP and 538.

When you look at the so-called toss-up states, they lean mostly toward Biden.

Biden - Nevada (6), Arizona (11), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Penn (20), New Hampshire (4), Maine (3), Virginia (13), and Florida (29).

That's 12 out of 17. He needs at least 87 more to win.

Trump - Texas (38), Iowa (6), Georgia (16), and North Carolina (15).

Ohio is pretty much even. If we averaged them together the 2020 polls, it would be Biden by a hair.

Colorado, Maine, and Virginia are approaching safe territory for Biden. He's mostly registering in double digits in those states, but RCP still has it listed as a toss-ups and I am going to air on the side of conservative.

You can call this "fake news" all you want, but it doesn't look good for Trump.

My sources:

Ohio President: general election Polls | FiveThirtyEight

RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - Battle for White House
Click to expand...

The problem is polls can't predict turnout. If Democrats and liberals had turned out for Hillary, Trump wouldn't be president. Trump got fewer votes than Romney. The Republican party is actually declining. Every year Texas becomes bluer and bluer.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom