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Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts

Rogue Valley

Rogue Valley

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Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts

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5/20/20
Unemployment is spiking at an unprecedented rate. Consumer spending is vanishing. And GDP is collapsing. History shows that dreadful economic trends like these spell doom for sitting presidents seeking reelection. The coronavirus recession will cause Trump to suffer a "historic defeat" in November, a national election model released Wednesday by Oxford Economics predicted. The model, which uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results, predicts that Trump will lose in a landslide, capturing just 35% of the popular vote. That's a sharp reversal from the model's pre-crisis prediction that Trump would win about 55% of the vote. And it would be the worst performance for an incumbent in a century. "It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favor Trump," Oxford Economics wrote in the report, adding that the economy will be a "nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November." The model has correctly predicted the popular vote in every election since 1948 other than 1968 and 1976.

The national election model assumes that the economy is still in bad shape this fall, with unemployment above 13%, real per capita incomes down nearly 6% from a year ago and brief period of falling prices, or deflation. "The economy would still be in a worse state than at the depth of the Great Depression," the Oxford Economics report said. A separate state-based election model run by Oxford Economics forecasts that seven battleground states will flip to Democrats: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina. Oxford Economics developed the state-based model last year. It would have correctly predicted Trump's upset electoral college victory as well as seven of the nine prior elections since 1980.
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I'll caution Democrat voters to not become complacent. Betting odds still favor Donald Trump and the GOP holding the Senate.

It's important that you vote on November 3rd. Register your family members and your friends. If the GOP retains the WH/Senate in 2020, America will become unrecognizable.

Vote for your Democrat candidate for US Senate on November 3[sup]rd[/sup]​
 
Rogue Valley said:
Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts

milwaukee-bg-e4fa97ea-8400-11ea-ae26-989cfce1c7c7-250x250.jpg

!

I'll caution Democrat voters to not become complacent. Betting odds still favor Donald Trump and the GOP holding the Senate.

It's important that you vote on November 3rd. Register your family members and your friends. If the GOP retains the WH/Senate in 2020, America will become unrecognizable.

Vote for your Democrat candidate for US Senate on November 3[sup]rd[/sup]​
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I’m late 60s and it is unrecognizable now!
 
I'm sure Trump is out. Voters are tired of his antics.

Will the democrats win the senate? That's the question now.
 
I think that this is a bit of counting chickens, and I think that would be a very poor choice to do. Trump could easily win, if the Dems don't take that seriously, they'll blow it.
 
Ikari said:
I think that this is a bit of counting chickens, and I think that would be a very poor choice to do. Trump could easily win, if the Dems don't take that seriously, they'll blow it.
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I have no faith in the idea Trump will lose in a landslide, or that he'll lose at all.

Prior to, probably 2006, any President that acted like he did in the leadup to this would have wound up with a 40+ state sweep against them.

But not in 2020... Far too many people have undone millenia worth of evolution to become troglodyte like thinkers.
 
Jetboogieman said:
I have no faith in the idea Trump will lose in a landslide, or that he'll lose at all.

Prior to, probably 2006, any President that acted like he did in the leadup to this would have wound up with a 40+ state sweep against them.

But not in 2020... Far too many people have undone millenia worth of evolution to become troglodyte like thinkers.
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I am not making it a prediction. It should be a goal
 
I think people are people are getting pretty sick of all the lockdown crap and are aware of who wants to keep it going, but we’ll see.
 
swing_voter said:
I'm sure Trump is out. Voters are tired of his antics.

Will the democrats win the senate? That's the question now.
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I wish I had your confidence in that.
I saw a Trump, before there was a Trump get re-elected to office.
So I am skeptical.
I will say, though, that if Trump loses, I think the D's take over the Senate as well.
 
Ikari said:
I think that this is a bit of counting chickens, and I think that would be a very poor choice to do. Trump could easily win, if the Dems don't take that seriously, they'll blow it.
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tenor.gif
 
X Factor said:
I think people are people are getting pretty sick of all the lockdown crap and are aware of who wants to keep it going, but we’ll see.
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Well pretty much all the States are pushing for opening, so it would seem that no one wants to "keep it going".
 
X Factor said:
I think people are people are getting pretty sick of all the lockdown crap and are aware of who wants to keep it going, but we’ll see.
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I don't doubt that. And the protests, such as they are, signal to that noise.
But, if we, as a country, go rushing to get back to "normal" and the numbers get worse? It won't be pretty for those that pushed so hard to re-open everything.
If there is a second wave it won't hit a a great time for the current occupant of the WH.
 
From Ben Shapiro at Townhall (Boo! Hiss! Kill the messengers!):

Some of the new [Biden] proposals are directly from the Sanders campaign: forgiving student loans, a Green New Deal, expansion of
government health care, a government jobs plan, a ban on stock buybacks and compulsion toward profit sharing for corporations.

...But do Americans really want the world remade? Or are they simply longing for the world of four months ago, when unemployment stood at 3.5%, when incomes were rising at the lowest end of the income scale, when Americans could attend events without fear of infection and death? Are Americans truly desperate for a reshaping of our medical system, a universal basic income and trillions more in debt?

Biden seems to be betting on the latter. And that's idiocy of the highest order. It completely undermines his entire case for the nomination; it allows Trump to place the new radical agenda front and center, rather than his own foibles. Biden's go-for-broke strategy is a massive opportunity for Trump -- if Trump doesn't blow it. How Biden Could Be Handing Trump His Reelection
 
Rogue Valley said:
Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts

milwaukee-bg-e4fa97ea-8400-11ea-ae26-989cfce1c7c7-250x250.jpg




I'll caution Democrat voters to not become complacent. Betting odds still favor Donald Trump and the GOP holding the Senate.

It's important that you vote on November 3rd. Register your family members and your friends. If the GOP retains the WH/Senate in 2020, America will become unrecognizable.

Vote for your Democrat candidate for US Senate on November 3[sup]rd[/sup]​
Click to expand...

lier, voting blue will ruin this country
 
Rogue Valley said:
Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts

milwaukee-bg-e4fa97ea-8400-11ea-ae26-989cfce1c7c7-250x250.jpg




I'll caution Democrat voters to not become complacent. Betting odds still favor Donald Trump and the GOP holding the Senate.

It's important that you vote on November 3rd. Register your family members and your friends. If the GOP retains the WH/Senate in 2020, America will become unrecognizable.

Vote for your Democrat candidate for US Senate on November 3[sup]rd[/sup]​
Click to expand...
I don't buy it. This model seems to predict specifically & exclusively based upon economic input (and nothing else). But we don't live in a 'normal' economic time. Rather, we live in a coronavirus induced economy.

If there was no virus pandemic, and we had these miserable economic numbers during normal times, yeah Trump would be tossed-out on his ear. But that's not the scenario.

Check this out:

The model, which uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results, predicts that Trump will lose in a landslide, capturing just 35% of the popular vote. That's a sharp reversal from the model's pre-crisis prediction that Trump would win about 55% of the vote. And it would be the worst performance for an incumbent in a century.
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So Trump was given 55% of the vote pre-covid? And now, only 35%? No way!
 
With social media widespread, disinformation rampant, and a president who has no problem lying right to your face, the 2020 election may be a coin-flip.

The GOP and conservative state judges will continue doing their utmost to purge voter rolls and minimize mail-in voting.

Don't take anything for granted. Vote like your life depends on it. It does. As does your healthcare insurance, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.

Republicans will try their very best to terminate all of the above safety nets.
 
Rogue Valley said:
It's important that you vote on November 3rd. Register your family members and your friends. If the GOP retains the WH/Senate in 2020, America will become unrecognizable.
Click to expand...

How so? What's the worst that would happen to America if Trump is president four more years?

Be honest.
 
Chomsky said:
So Trump was given 55% of the vote pre-covid? And now, only 35%? No way!
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I have no idea :shrug:

Although their past performance seems to be fairly accurate.
 
X Factor said:
I think people are people are getting pretty sick of all the lockdown crap and are aware of who wants to keep it going, but we’ll see.
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A lot of people know that if Trump gets voted out, the lockdowns will become permanent, with the support of the Federal government.
 
Dayton3 said:
How so? What's the worst that would happen to America if Trump is president four more years?

Be honest.
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I love the Be honest tag at the end of your post.
Like you've not witnessed the rolling back of norms, and the decimation of institutions over the last 3+ years.
You are ok with all of that, because it fits into your agenda.
Be honest. Yeah, you first.
 
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