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Joe Biden's numbers continue to climb

99percenter said:
The buck stops with trump. Neither of those guys has the information trump has. Trump was warned by the CIA back in November about this, but continued to lie about it and dismiss it as a hoax. Trump could have ramped up manufacturing of testing and medical devices(neither deblasio or coumo have the power to do) but why would he. He just thought it was the flu.
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Pathetic response but about what I expected. Thanks.
 
Anagram said:
That's not entirely accurate.

In 1980 there definitely were some polls that showed Carter up late, like the infamous Gallup poll that had him up 8 with 2 weeks left. But by and large the polls showed Reagan with the momentum and almost all the polls at the end showed Reagan leading, including the final Gallup one. Gallup Presidential Election Trial-Heat Trends, 1936-2004

In 2000, while I can't find a great list of public polls, what I can find shows that altogether they did very well, (with this source finding an error of barely a percentage point overall and that 7 of the polls included overstated Bush while just 2 overstated Gore).Presidential Poll Performance 2000 | NCPP - National Council on Public Polls

In 2004, polls by and large showed Bush leading, with no polls outside the error range you'd expect from a bunch of polls done well. RealClearPolitics - Election 2004 - General Election: Bush vs. Kerry

They also weren't really that off in 2016, but that's been pointed out to death in this thread already.

None of which says of course that polls in May are particularly predictive for what happens in November.
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In all those election, some people thought the Democrat was the shoo-in, just like they think Biden is the shoo-in, this time. Those same people used the polls as evidence. If the polls this year are accurate, it'll be one of the rare times that it happened.
 
ataraxia said:
Because it was a fluke last time. It’s a little bit like stopping listening to the weatherman because he got it wrong one day.
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Not only that, it's like disbelieving a weather forecaster because they gave a 70% chance of rain on one day, and it didn't rain.
 
apdst said:
In all those election, some people thought the Democrat was the shoo-in, just like they think Biden is the shoo-in, this time. Those same people used the polls as evidence. If the polls this year are accurate, it'll be one of the rare times that it happened.
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That some people thought the Democrat was the shoo-in somehow means the polls were inaccurate? That doesn't follow. Especially since as shown above, the polls were largely accurate. Unless you're actually disputing the fact that the numbers presented above are very close to the actual results.

I am certainly not going to deny that sometimes the media narrative doesn't fit with the polls. The narrative in 2016 definitely was the Hillary would likely win easily for example. I just don't think the actual polling numbers suggested it.
 
apdst said:
In all those election, some people thought the Democrat was the shoo-in, just like they think Biden is the shoo-in, this time. Those same people used the polls as evidence. If the polls this year are accurate, it'll be one of the rare times that it happened.
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Unless they predict a Trump win and then you would say they are the word of god. You really don't need to bother posting since we know what you would say anyway.
 
iguanaman said:
Unless they predict a Trump win and then you would say they are the word of god. You really don't need to bother posting since we know what you would say anyway.
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No I wouldn't...lol
 
Anagram said:
That some people thought the Democrat was the shoo-in somehow means the polls were inaccurate? That doesn't follow. Especially since as shown above, the polls were largely accurate. Unless you're actually disputing the fact that the numbers presented above are very close to the actual results.

I am certainly not going to deny that sometimes the media narrative doesn't fit with the polls. The narrative in 2016 definitely was the Hillary would likely win easily for example. I just don't think the actual polling numbers suggested it.
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The polls showed Reagan, Bush and Trump losing. That's why people thought Carter, Gore, Kerry and Clinton were a shoo-in.
 
apdst said:
The polls showed Reagan, Bush and Trump losing. That's why people thought Carter, Gore, Kerry and Clinton were a shoo-in.
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Ok so I provided polls showing Reagan ahead at the end, and poll averages that showed by and large Bush winning in 2000 and 2004. And you come back by saying that the polls showed Reagan, Bush, and Trump losing. Are you disputing the actual numbers I provided then?

All the actual numbers I've seen do not support the statements you are making.
 
Anagram said:
Ok so I provided polls showing Reagan ahead at the end, and poll averages that showed by and large Bush winning in 2000 and 2004. And you come back by saying that the polls showed Reagan, Bush, and Trump losing. Are you disputing the actual numbers I provided then?

All the actual numbers I've seen do not support the statements you are making.
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You cherry picked a poll that supports your argument, but even Snopes says you're incorrect.

Ronald Reagan Beat Jimmy Carter in a Landslide Despite Trailing 6% in Polls?
 
The AntiDonald said:
America is watching folks. New poll out today has Biden's approval among women 20 points ahead of Trump.

I am sure this will generate a few rage tweets tonight.

And Joe has done it all by staying home. Trump's in trouble.
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What I find amazing is that a small majority of men still support Don.

So what is it about Don that attracts more men? Is it because he's a power hungry authoritarian? Is it the bravado of a macho man who never admits failure or making a mistake? Is it because they see themselves as macho men? Is it the increase in their 401's that leads them to sellout their country? Is it his cozying up to the world's dictators while giving our allies nothing but BS? Is the leadership he's shown during this pandemic??

Conservatives must be kicking themselves in the ass for losing their fight to keep women from voting. Thank god for our American women who know a nutjob when hey see one...
 
apdst said:
You cherry picked a poll that supports your argument, but even Snopes says you're incorrect.

Ronald Reagan Beat Jimmy Carter in a Landslide Despite Trailing 6% in Polls?
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For one, that really doesn't seem to dispute what I said about how Carter led in some polls in October, but by and large at the end they showed Reagan leading.

John Sides similarly observed when commenting on the 2012 presidential race that the notion President Carter held a polling lead over Ronald Reagan in 1980 right up until the very end of the campaign is something of a misconception:

… 1980 is a poor comparison with 2012 for many reasons. One is simply that the economy is not as bad in 2012 as it was in 1980. But there is another apparent misconception in the Romney campaign, which Nate Silver rightly picked up on: Carter didn’t lead Reagan for much of the campaign. The [poll tracking] plot shows what Chait describes, which is the ebbing of Carter’s poll standing throughout 1980. Indeed, Reagan didn’t need his convention bump — which he certainly got — to put him in the lead. The Democratic convention helped erode Reagan’s lead but it never closed it altogether.

At the end of the campaign, Reagan did surge, but this only increased his lead. His surge appears to have been brought on first by the debate, and then perhaps by several other events in the final week of the campaign:
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The one poll quoted in that entire article is the mid October Gallup one I mentioned in my first post. And again, the last Gallup poll that year had Reagan winning.

But for another you seemed to have cherry picked the one election that you thought supported your argument and ignored 2000, 2004, and 2016.
 
Fruityfact said:
and those voters took Trumps stupidity for granted.
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What you have still failed to learn is that it was the hildabeast that took those voters in the blue firewall states for granted. You libruls never learn, do you?
 
iguanaman said:
His margin of victory in the 3 blue States was less than the number of Sanders supporters that voted for Trump. He only won because socialists voted for him. They won't be making that mistake again.

Bernie Sanders Voters Helped Trump Win and Here's Proof
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Only one in 10 Sanders supporters voted for Trump That was not enough to toss those states to Trump, especially in Ohio where 34% of John Kasich supporters voted for the hildabeast. Also keep in mind that 13% of Trump voters were former Obama voters.The hildabeast lost because she was took those states for granted and neglected them. Her statement that she was going to put alot of coal miners out of business did not help her either. According to pollsters, those states were not supposed to be close, much less withing Trump's reach. However if you badly want to blame Bernie supporters, have at it. What makes you think they will vote for Trump in less numbers in 2020 then 2016? Bernie was screwed by the DNC in the 2020 race is much the same way he was in the 2016 race. Biden is only going to be the nominee because the democrat party was again spooked by the threat of Bernie getting the nomination. They knew that not only would bernie lose to Trump, he would also be very destructive in down ticket congressional races.
 
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