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March jobs report: UE Rate 4.4%, employment -701,000

ludin said:
this is the kind of posts you get when the person can't make an actual logical argument and instead has to
throw ad hominem appeal to emotion fallacies.

it is expected from most leftist that reject fact, reason and logic in any discussion.
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it appears to me that Trump folks on this board are getting really emotional these last few days. i guess it's because they're stuck (Trump said this was nothing, they can't tell Trump to lift the Stay at Home, they will lose jobs/money/etc).


hey, i get it. rock and a hard place.
 
ludin said:
we are. at this point there are very few people on this forum worth addressing.
it is sad as this use to be a good forum to have discussions on. someone let the lunatics off the ranch and didn't bother to round them up.
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Well, thank you for including me in that list, even if all you did was make insults and false statements.
 
Casper said:
Agree, the help is coming but takes time to kick in.

Thanks. I think it is time we all tone back the bickering just a bit and act a bit more civil, we all in the same boat now or will be soon. So if someone says something that triggers your WTF factor it is best to just ignore it or at least come back to it later, there enough stress to go around without adding more.
Be Safe
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Keep ignoring moronically idiotic comments from the trump/kushner/gop crime syndicate — the federal govt is not an “ordering clerk” — my state should ban every plate coming from the 12 states spreading the virus on purpose
 
pinqy said:
Well, thank you for including me in that list, even if all you did was make insults and false statements.
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please show me where i mentioned your name or are you going to continue lying?

what false statement did i make?
what insult did i say?

the fact we have seen 50 of these threads in 5 days isn't a lie and isn't an insult.
saying that we know the reason for this is because 95% of the states have shut down pretty much all businesses
is why.

the numbers are not surprising except in that i figured it would be higher.
 
It's just the media's latest "trash Trump" ploy. It's crap, but it gets some people going, I suppose.
 
ludin said:
yeah this is what happens when state governors order people to stay indoors not go out and close non-essential businesses down.
:doh

the stupidity of these threads amaze me.
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The stupidity of those who won't learn that social distancing and stay at home amazes me.

There was a guy over near Big Lots yelling at the police about all of this, so they batoned him and took him to jail.
 
jamesbyoung said:
The stupidity of those who won't learn that social distancing and stay at home amazes me.

There was a guy over near Big Lots yelling at the police about all of this, so they batoned him and took him to jail.
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0 to do with what i said but it is expected.
 
ludin said:
0 to do with what i said but it is expected.
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Sure, it does. You guys are wrong and the good guys in public are not going to take any lip about it.
 
Social distance and stay safe.
 
jamesbyoung said:
Sure, it does. You guys are wrong and the good guys in public are not going to take any lip about it.
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Not sure how i am wrong the unemployment rate is directly due to the fact that government has closed businesses down.
there is no wrong about it. i am 100% correct.

so you once again prove you have no clue what you are talking about.
see if a business doesn't bring in money it can't pay people.
 
Linc said:
Keep ignoring moronically idiotic comments from the trump/kushner/gop crime syndicate — the federal govt is not an “ordering clerk” — my state should ban every plate coming from the 12 states spreading the virus on purpose
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Thanks for proving my point. You have a nice day and Be Safe.
 
ludin said:
please show me where i mentioned your name or are you going to continue lying?
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You responded to my thread, and quoted me. That's addressing me.

what false statement did i make?
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"we have about 100 other threads on this same exact thing." That is false. The sole topic of the OP was the March Employment Situation Report released today, 3 April 2020, at 8:30 EST. Even after I pointed that out, you still insisted there had been 50 threads in the last three days with no explanation of how even one thread could be about a report that hadn't been released and no one outside the specific BLS offices knew what it would say.

what insult did i say?
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"the stupidity of these threads amaze me"

"So it is another pointless thread about something that 1. we already know..." (that's a twofer: an insult and a false statement as we did not know exactly what the UE data or job losses would be)

"another pointless statement by someone that can't handle actual facts."

"this is the kind of posts you get when the person can't make an actual logical argument and instead has to throw ad hominem appeal to emotion fallacies."

"it is expected from most leftist that reject fact, reason and logic in any discussion"

"at this point there are very few people on this forum worth addressing...someone let the lunatics off the ranch and didn't bother to round them up."

Those are all insults to various people. And yes, others did insult you, but with one or two exception, all your posts in this thread have contained insults.

the fact we have seen 50 of these threads in 5 days isn't a lie and isn't an insult.
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Not an insult but it is untrue. You cannot link to one single post before mine that discussed the data from the March Employment Situation Report.
saying that we know the reason for this is because 95% of the states have shut down pretty much all businesses
is why.
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well, yeah. Nobody has said or implied otherwise.

the numbers are not surprising except in that i figured it would be higher.
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I didn't post the numbers because I thought they would be surprising....But part of my post was to explain WHY they are not higher and the known inaccuracies and limitations.
 
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pinqy said:
You responded to my thread, and quoted me. That's addressing me.
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No where did i address you in my post to that person so thank you for proving it.
now you can stop saying i did which is a lie.

"we have about 100 other threads on this same exact thing." That is false. The sole topic of the OP was the March Employment Situation Report released today, 3 April 2020, at 8:30 EST. Even after I pointed that out, you still insisted there had been 50 threads in the last three days with no explanation of how even one thread could be about a report that hadn't been released and no one outside the specific BLS offices knew what it would say.
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Again you are not paying attention there have been unemployment threads over like 3 days here.
Those are all insults to various people. And yes, others did insult you, but with one or two exception, all your posts in this thread have contained insults.
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They are not insults if they are true.
They are facts.

Not an insult but it is untrue. You cannot link to one single post before mine that discussed the data from the March Employment Situation Report.
well, yeah. Nobody has said or implied otherwise.
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This is what we call moving the goal posts. why? no one said anything about march. we have had untold number of unemployement threads on here
it takes 5 seconds to look for one of the many of them.

They are exactly what we expect them to be since Gov. have basically shut down state businesses from running.
i am not sure why people are shocked or surprised by this.
 
ludin said:
This is what we call moving the goal posts. why? no one said anything about march.
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It's in the thread title. And the OP was solely about the March data and nothing else.
we have had untold number of unemployement threads on here
it takes 5 seconds to look for one of the many of them.
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And none of them were about the March Employment Situation Report. There were some about Unemployment Insurance claims (which have nothing to do with the UE rate),, and some generalized doom and gloom threads,with hyperbolic predictions, but none about the new information that came out today.
I set the same goalposts for this thread, and certainly haven't moved them.

They are exactly what we expect them to be since Gov. have basically shut down state businesses from running.
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Exactly? You said you expected them to be higher. Now I haven't looked, but I doubt anyone predicted 4.4% UE rate and 701,000 lost jobs.
i am not sure why people are shocked or surprised by this.
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Who has said they are shocked or surprised by it? No one in this thread.
 
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swing_voter said:
Just 4.4%?

We're not even in a recession, yet.

That's amazing.
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I don't know about other states, but estimates by the unemployment commission are that millions haven't been able to sign up for unemployment insurance due to the overload of the system.
 
pinqy said:
It's in the thread title. And the OP was solely about the March data and nothing else.

And none of them were about the March Employment Situation Report. There were some about Unemployment Insurance claims (which have nothing to do with the UE rate),, and some generalized doom and gloom threads,with hyperbolic predictions, but none about the new information that came out today.
I set the same goalposts for this thread, and certainly haven't moved them.


Exactly? You said you expected them to be higher. Now I haven't looked, but I doubt anyone predicted 4.4% UE rate and 701,000 lost jobs.

Who has said they are shocked or surprised by it? No one in this thread.
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there is a quote button for a reason if you can't use it properly why bother.
you hacked my post apart because as i said i never mentioned you in my post.
thanks for admitting it.

have a nice day.
 
Linc said:
ludin and the rest of the trump posters would be blaming Obama if this happened under his watch. In fact, they’ll be blaming Obama before the day’s out.
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re: recession unemployment numbers that he inherited from day one.
 
BWG said:
I don't know about other states, but estimates by the unemployment commission are that millions haven't been able to sign up for unemployment insurance due to the overload of the system.
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The unemployment rate has nothing to do with unemployment claims. The data come from surveys conducted by BL S and The Census Bureau. The reasons it is only 4.4% are that
  1. The reference week is March 8-14, so anyone who worked at all that week would not be considered unemployed, even if they LIST their job that week.
  2. Many people responded that they were "absent from work" (employed), when they should have responded they were on temporary layoff (unemployed). BL S has to stick with the response given even if they know it is wrong
  3. The results might also have been affected by the lack of personal interviews and an overall power response rate.
 
ludin said:
Not sure how i am wrong the unemployment rate is directly due to the fact that government has closed businesses down.
there is no wrong about it. i am 100% correct.

so you once again prove you have no clue what you are talking about.
see if a business doesn't bring in money it can't pay people.
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Burn your straw man and write sensibly, please.
 
ludin said:
there is a quote button for a reason if you can't use it properly why bother.
you hacked my post apart because as i said i never mentioned you in my post.
thanks for admitting it.

have a nice day.
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I never said you mentioned me, did I? You stated there were few people worth addressing. Since you had addressed me, and You certainly wouldn't address someone who wasn't worth it, you obviously considered me someone worth addressing.

I separated your post because I did not wish to address all of at this time and wanted to focus on the parts I did quote.

Why you would quote me and the ignore everything in that quotation is a mystery.

Are you willing to admit yet that this thread was specifically about the new information from the March Employment Situation Report and there were no previous threads on that topic?

Are you willing to admit no one has expressed shock or surprise about the data nor has anyone claimed any reason other than the Covid-19 shutdowns?
 
pinqy said:
The unemployment rate has nothing to do with unemployment claims. The data come from surveys conducted by BL S and The Census Bureau. The reasons it is only 4.4% are that
  1. The reference week is March 8-14, so anyone who worked at all that week would not be considered unemployed, even if they LIST their job that week.
  2. Many people responded that they were "absent from work" (employed), when they should have responded they were on temporary layoff (unemployed). BL S has to stick with the response given even if they know it is wrong
  3. The results might also have been affected by the lack of personal interviews and an overall power response rate.
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Job unemployed numbers will be between 9 and 11% next month and will go higher through the spring and summer.
 
jamesbyoung said:
Job unemployed numbers will be between 9 and 11% next month and will go higher through the spring and summer.
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No they won't be that high for April. They may well reach that level, but not in one month. The unemployment level went up by 1.4 million from February to March....it would have to increase by roughly another 7 million from March to April to reach 9%. I don't see that happening in one month.
 
pinqy said:
No they won't be that high for April. They may well reach that level, but not in one month. The unemployment level went up by 1.4 million from February to March....it would have to increase by roughly another 7 million from March to April to reach 9%. I don't see that happening in one month.
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The March numbers are incomplete, there are 2 weeks that have not yet been reported.

Many economists are forecasting a 15% UE rate for April.

'It is going to get much worse': 4.4% unemployment amid COVID-19; 15% may be near - Chicago Tribune
 
pinqy said:
No they won't be that high for April. They may well reach that level, but not in one month. The unemployment level went up by 1.4 million from February to March....it would have to increase by roughly another 7 million from March to April to reach 9%. I don't see that happening in one month.
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By today, it will have reached those numbers, pinqy.

Gimmesometruth may be right about the 15% UE rate. Reagan and Obama never had numbers like that.
 
Gimmesometruth said:
The March numbers are incomplete, there are 2 weeks that have not yet been reported.

Many economists are forecasting a 15% UE rate for April.

'It is going to get much worse': 4.4% unemployment amid COVID-19; 15% may be near - Chicago Tribune
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The April report will be based on the week of April 12-18. Now, the Tribune article does not make or give an exact quote from any economist saying it will hit 15% in April, and I have learned over the years that journalists are never experts in technical fields and when you get an unattributed generalization like that, it is never ever accurate.


I could certainly be wrong and layoffs may have been much worse than my perception, (and I'll certainly admit that if it happpens) but I'm not convinced.
 
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