Stock Market News!

[Luckyone]

As all of you know by now, I am a stock market chart analyst and follow the market every single minute of every single day.

Based on the charts and the action seen the past two days, I will venture to say that we have found a "temporary" bottom to the collapse seen. I am using the word "temporary" because on a fundamental basis, it is impossible at this time to say that things won't get worse economically than what has been seen so far. Nonetheless, the $2 trillion aid package has done enough to assuage fears at this time that if things don't get worse, that we have seen the lows.

This is not to say that the indexes will continue to go higher because things are not moving forward at this time, just not going down additionally.

For the first time in the last 30 days, the indexes will generate 2 green closes in a row and that is a big relief to all traders as they can now put panic aside and key on trading opportunities being presented. Nonetheless, under these conditions and with no information possible about how companies will end up doing through this medical and economic catastrophe, traders will depend totally on computers, algorithms and charts and right now those are starting to reach levels where sales (rather than purchases) will being to happen again as chart level of importance and indicative resistance are being reached.

For example and using the NASDAQ, the index has bounced up 15% from the low but the index has not yet the level where the bear market signal of a drop of 20% from the highs was given, which is at 7870. Index has seen a high today at 7671 and that is only 200 points higher than today's high. Selling will definitely be seen/found at that level.

Normal trading when a top or a bottom is found is a retest of those levels, meaning that the recent low in the index at 6631 is likely to be tested. With there being an open gap at 6984, that gap is a magnet as gaps without a catalyst to support the gap (this one does not have a catalyst as the aid package cannot be considered as such) are normally magnets to be closed.

In addition, traders never feel comfortable in being aggressive if a level of support has not been tested for confirmation of support.

As such, tomorrow is likely to be a day where traders will become sellers.

 

[Mycroft]

As all of you know by now, I am a stock market chart analyst and follow the market every single minute of every single day.

Based on the charts and the action seen the past two days, I will venture to say that we have found a "temporary" bottom to the collapse seen. I am using the word "temporary" because on a fundamental basis, it is impossible at this time to say that things won't get worse economically than what has been seen so far. Nonetheless, the $2 trillion aid package has done enough to assuage fears at this time that if things don't get worse, that we have seen the lows.

This is not to say that the indexes will continue to go higher because things are not moving forward at this time, just not going down additionally.

For the first time in the last 30 days, the indexes will generate 2 green closes in a row and that is a big relief to all traders as they can now put panic aside and key on trading opportunities being presented. Nonetheless, under these conditions and with no information possible about how companies will end up doing through this medical and economic catastrophe, traders will depend totally on computers, algorithms and charts and right now those are starting to reach levels where sales (rather than purchases) will being to happen again as chart level of importance are being reached.

For example and using the NASDAQ, the index has bounced up 15% from the low but the index has not yet the level where the bear market signal of a drop of 20% from the highs was given, which is at 7870. Index has seen a high today at 7671 and that is only 200 points higher than today's high. Selling will definitely be seen/found at that level.

Normal trading when a top or a bottom is found is a retest of those levels, meaning that the recent low in the index at 6631 is likely to be tested. With there being an open gap at 6984, that gap is a magnet as gaps without a catalyst to support the gap (this one does not have a catalyst as the aid package cannot be considered as such) are normally magnets to be closed.

In addition, traders never feel comfortable in being aggressive if a level of support has not been tested for confirmation of support.

As such, tomorrow is likely to be a day where traders will become sellers.

I know you see this as a good thing. I think it's pathetic that people will invest based on fear instead of investing based on value.

But hey...so it goes.

 

[CaughtInThe]

I know you see this as a good thing. I think it's pathetic that people will invest based on fear instead of investing based on value.

But hey...so it goes.

Yes, investors should only deal with the numbers and should completely ignore what's going on in the world.

Now, if we were all robots that might work. But it never has worked that way and it never will.

 

[CaughtInThe]

As all of you know by now, I am a stock market chart analyst and follow the market every single minute of every single day.

Based on the charts and the action seen the past two days, I will venture to say that we have found a "temporary" bottom to the collapse seen. I am using the word "temporary" because on a fundamental basis, it is impossible at this time to say that things won't get worse economically than what has been seen so far. Nonetheless, the $2 trillion aid package has done enough to assuage fears at this time that if things don't get worse, that we have seen the lows.

This is not to say that the indexes will continue to go higher because things are not moving forward at this time, just not going down additionally.

For the first time in the last 30 days, the indexes will generate 2 green closes in a row and that is a big relief to all traders as they can now put panic aside and key on trading opportunities being presented. Nonetheless, under these conditions and with no information possible about how companies will end up doing through this medical and economic catastrophe, traders will depend totally on computers, algorithms and charts and right now those are starting to reach levels where sales (rather than purchases) will being to happen again as chart level of importance and indicative resistance are being reached.

For example and using the NASDAQ, the index has bounced up 15% from the low but the index has not yet the level where the bear market signal of a drop of 20% from the highs was given, which is at 7870. Index has seen a high today at 7671 and that is only 200 points higher than today's high. Selling will definitely be seen/found at that level.

Normal trading when a top or a bottom is found is a retest of those levels, meaning that the recent low in the index at 6631 is likely to be tested. With there being an open gap at 6984, that gap is a magnet as gaps without a catalyst to support the gap (this one does not have a catalyst as the aid package cannot be considered as such) are normally magnets to be closed.

In addition, traders never feel comfortable in being aggressive if a level of support has not been tested for confirmation of support.

As such, tomorrow is likely to be a day where traders will become sellers.

I'm not quite ready to say that yet but I am praying you are right.

 

[ludin]

Yes, investors should only deal with the numbers and should completely ignore what's going on in the world.

Now, if we were all robots that might work. But it never has worked that way and it never will.

Rule 1 never trade with emotion.

 

[washunut]

As all of you know by now, I am a stock market chart analyst and follow the market every single minute of every single day.

Based on the charts and the action seen the past two days, I will venture to say that we have found a "temporary" bottom to the collapse seen. I am using the word "temporary" because on a fundamental basis, it is impossible at this time to say that things won't get worse economically than what has been seen so far. Nonetheless, the $2 trillion aid package has done enough to assuage fears at this time that if things don't get worse, that we have seen the lows.

This is not to say that the indexes will continue to go higher because things are not moving forward at this time, just not going down additionally.

For the first time in the last 30 days, the indexes will generate 2 green closes in a row and that is a big relief to all traders as they can now put panic aside and key on trading opportunities being presented. Nonetheless, under these conditions and with no information possible about how companies will end up doing through this medical and economic catastrophe, traders will depend totally on computers, algorithms and charts and right now those are starting to reach levels where sales (rather than purchases) will being to happen again as chart level of importance and indicative resistance are being reached.

For example and using the NASDAQ, the index has bounced up 15% from the low but the index has not yet the level where the bear market signal of a drop of 20% from the highs was given, which is at 7870. Index has seen a high today at 7671 and that is only 200 points higher than today's high. Selling will definitely be seen/found at that level.

Normal trading when a top or a bottom is found is a retest of those levels, meaning that the recent low in the index at 6631 is likely to be tested. With there being an open gap at 6984, that gap is a magnet as gaps without a catalyst to support the gap (this one does not have a catalyst as the aid package cannot be considered as such) are normally magnets to be closed.

In addition, traders never feel comfortable in being aggressive if a level of support has not been tested for confirmation of support.

As such, tomorrow is likely to be a day where traders will become sellers.

This may well be a bear market rally. Expect us to test the recent lows in a couple of weeks.

 

[SoCal]

Rule 1 never trade with emotion.

From what I've read, rule number 1 is ignored everyday.

"...Market prices are the result of the expectation of thousands of single individuals, each one different than the other, that are subject to numerous psychological biases. This component is heavily influenced by the sentiment of investors and traders, a sentiment that changes dramatically over short periods of time.

Psychology studies investigated the interconnection between our feelings and our judgments. This results in an emotional pattern that occured many times in history and is the plot of every bubble and subsequent market crash...."

Facts don't care about your feelings, but it seems the stock market does.

 

[Mycroft]

Yes, investors should only deal with the numbers and should completely ignore what's going on in the world.

Now, if we were all robots that might work. But it never has worked that way and it never will.

I said nothing about ignoring what's going on in the world.

I was talking about investing based on fear.

 

[KevinKohler]

Bottomed?

Not yet. By month 3 of no one working?

THEN we will see bottomed out.

 

[Luckyone]

I'm not quite ready to say that yet but I am praying you are right.

I did underline my premise by saying that "if things don't get worse". Fundamentals (not charts) rule the market and in this case, no one has any control of the fundamentals. Charts simply show what the big traders and computers are doing now, meaning short-term trading.

I also wish that a bottom has been found because if it hasn't, it will mean the corona virus is winning by a larger margin than it now being seen.

 

[Luckyone]

Bottomed?

Not yet. By month 3 of no one working?

THEN we will see bottomed out.

You are probably right. Then again, remember that the market is doing what is expected to happen 6-9 months in the future, meaning what happens in 3 months might already be "factored in". Nonetheless, in this particular and unique case, everyone is doing more guessing that truly evaluating.

 

[Luckyone]

I said nothing about ignoring what's going on in the world.

I was talking about investing based on fear.

Fear and Greed has been a constant factor since the market started trading over 100 years ago. It is a constant, not an exception. Computers and algorithms are written with fear and greed as tangible factors, did you know that Mycroft?

 

[Luckyone]

This may well be a bear market rally. Expect us to test the recent lows in a couple of weeks.

At the rate these markets have been trading, it could be as soon as tomorrow (not in a few weeks).

Nonetheless, I will say with a fair amount of confidence that for now (likely meaning 2-4 weeks), the recent lows are likely to hold up. Nonetheless, I do agree with you that this is a bear market rally and that much further downside will be seen for the next 1-3 years.

Charts suggest that the NASDAQ will head down to the 4700 level, meaning a drop of 50%+ from the all-time high made 2 months ago. Reaching that low will not be on a short term basis, at least 1.5 years minimum........at least if this virus is not much worse than possible.

 

[KevinKohler]

You are probably right. Then again, remember that the market is doing what is expected to happen 6-9 months in the future, meaning what happens in 3 months might already be "factored in". Nonetheless, in this particular and unique case, everyone is doing more guessing that truly evaluating.

Its basically going to come down to what our government does.

6 month loan deferments for school, auto, home, business loans, coupled with free utilities, and then a handout of money just to cover groceries...and yeah this will hurt, but it won't kill.

Doing nothing...well, that'll be a different story.

 

[KevinKohler]

At the rate these markets have been trading, it could be as soon as tomorrow (not in a few weeks).

Nonetheless, I will say with a fair amount of confidence that for now (likely meaning 2-4 weeks), the recent lows are likely to hold up. Nonetheless, I do agree with you that this is a bear market rally and that much further downside will be seen for the next 1-3 years.

Charts suggest that the NASDAQ will head down to the 4700 level, meaning a drop of 50%+ from the all-time high made 2 months ago. Reaching that low will not be on a short term basis, at least 1.5 years minimum........at least if this virus is not much worse than possible.

Well, even once the greater threat of the virus has passed (heard immunity, or a viable vaccine/treatment plan), people are going to be digging out for a while.

Kinda like a blizzard. Its bad while its falling, but doesn't end once the sky is clear.

 

[CaughtInThe]

Rule 1 never trade with emotion.

Rule 0, humans have emotions.

 

[CaughtInThe]

I said nothing about ignoring what's going on in the world.

I was talking about investing based on fear.

or buying guns based on fear.

you can't take "human" out of humans.

 

[Mycroft]

Fear and Greed has been a constant factor since the market started trading over 100 years ago. It is a constant, not an exception. Computers and algorithms are written with fear and greed as tangible factors, did you know that Mycroft?

Of course I know that. We've seen the results of that nonsense numerous times.

That's why it's so pathetic. They never learn.

 

[Mycroft]

or buying guns based on fear.

you can't take "human" out of humans.

You would think people interested in making money wouldn't let their fear interfere with making money...but they do.

 

[jimbo]

Its basically going to come down to what our government does.

6 month loan deferments for school, auto, home, business loans, coupled with free utilities, and then a handout of money just to cover groceries...and yeah this will hurt, but it won't kill.

Doing nothing...well, that'll be a different story.

If it comes down to 6 month payment deferments. Then IMO the real economic problem will occur when people wake up in September realizing that that former free mortgage payment or rent is suddenly $10,000 and they've spent all their money.

 

[Variant]

I know you see this as a good thing. I think it's pathetic that people will invest based on fear instead of investing based on value.

But hey...so it goes.

Outlook and expectation are essential parts of what value is, they can not be separated.

 

[jimbo]

Rule 0, humans have emotions.

Rule 1, exploit other people's emotions, but keep yours in check.

 

[CaughtInThe]

Rule 1, exploit other people's emotions, but keep yours in check.

oh. no doubt.

i wonder how many people here sold on the way down recently and how much of that was emotion.

 

[jimbo]

oh. no doubt.

i wonder how many people here sold on the way down recently and how much of that was emotion.

I'd say very close to 100% was emotion.

 

[CaughtInThe]

You would think people interested in making money wouldn't let their fear interfere with making money...but they do.

go buy $25,000 worth of a lot of stock and tell me if you're totally emotionless.

i've done it. it's impossible to not feel some emotions as you're up $5,000 then down $2,000 then down $7,000 then down $3,000 then down $3,100 then down $4,000 then down $2,500.


it's a range of emotions if you're a day or swing trader and anyone that says they're totally emotionless are liars. the only way that works is if you buy and walk away.

if trading was easy everyone would do it.