Is 25 days of total lockdown the correct period to bend the curve?

Do not ask for a link as I have not been able to find one on this issue, but I heard on one of the talking head shows say that it seems that 25 days of total lockdown in China and now Italy seem to be the majic period that bends the curve of the spread of this virus. I guess it has to do with how the virus spreads and the time it takes to inncubate in a person and then to lose the ability of those who get the virus to spread it to others. So maybe instead of fighting on when to restart the econoy we should lock down the entire country for 25 days and see if as in China and maybe italy, we start to reach the end of the spread. I do not think that having one state lock down while others do not is going to do anything but prolong the issue. If Trump wants this ended as quickly as it can be safely with as few deaths as possible and to get the economy going again he should do the necessary. 25 days is better than months and months. Trump is right that even with the bail oout being presented by congress, it will not be enough if we do not end the spread and restart the economhy as quickly as possible. It will not be in a week.

I'll see your 25 days and raise you another 10 days.

(This idea is all over the board, eventually we will hear everyone is on lock down until we get the vaccine. Then we'll see another strain... oh wait, ****.... we are doomed!)

Agreed. The shutdown needs a period of time, before it can be accurately evaluated. I'm not qualified to determine the optimum time, but I would think 30 days might be a good time-period to gather data to re-evaluate.

OrphanSlug said:

I'll see your 25 days and raise you another 10 days.

(This idea is all over the board, eventually we will hear everyone is on lock down until we get the vaccine. Then we'll see another strain... oh wait, ****.... we are doomed!)

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Hah! And in my post above I split the difference - 30 days!

Just like the old Humple Pie tune ...

Chomsky said:

Agreed. The shutdown needs a period of time, before it can be accurately evaluated. I'm not qualified to determine the optimum time, but I would think 30 days might be a good time-period to gather data to re-evaluate.

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It's really quite simple. Preventative action must increased until the weekly cases decrease, and then maintained until zero. As time progresses and cases per week increase, more decisive actions must be taken. Thus, any lock-down period is inherently open-ended; ultimately, it succeeds when weekly cases decrease.

Chomsky said:

Hah! And in my post above I split the difference - 30 days!

Just like the old Humple Pie tune ...

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Good job!!

ecofarm said:

It's really quite simple. Preventative action must increased until the weekly cases decrease, and then maintained until zero. As time progresses and cases per week increase, more decisive actions must be taken. Thus, any lock-down period is inherently open-ended; ultimately, it ends when weekly cases decrease.

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:thumbs:

independentusa said:

Good job!!

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Roll that tape! :thumbs:

Chomsky said:

Agreed. The shutdown needs a period of time, before it can be accurately evaluated. I'm not qualified to determine the optimum time, but I would think 30 days might be a good time-period to gather data to re-evaluate.

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Most people in this country could not withstand that kind of economic hit, neither can the government. The cure for the virus at that point would be worse than the disease.

Yes, the most severe kind of lockdown for thirty days would do it. But we don’t have the political will to do that, so we’re getting a year of misery instead.

PirateMk1 said:

Most people in this country could not withstand that kind of economic hit, neither can the government. The cure for the virus at that point would be worse than the disease.

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Trump put us into 2 weeks. If we went that far, I'm sure we could go the final 1 or 2 to make sure we have a handle on it.


If you think we can't handle 1 or 2 weeks more, how are you going to handle a second longer lock-down if we don't get it under control now? Give up?

Cardinal said:

Yes, the most severe kind of lockdown for thirty days would do it. But we don’t have the political will to do that, so we’re getting a year of misery instead.

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Well, the good news from Trump's perspective is the suffering will be primarily Dems. He would never do this if the virus was hitting & killing the rural areas. But who knows? It may get there yet. In the meanwhile, what's a few less Dem voters?

Chomsky said:

Well, the good news from Trump's perspective is the suffering will be primarily Dems. He would never do this if the virus was hitting & killing the rural areas. But who knows? It may get there yet. In the meanwhile, what's a few less Dem voters?

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I doubt it will really make a difference. You’re not wiping out enough Democrats in the cities to tilt the election in any way.

Isn’t it amazing that we just discuss matter-of-factly that the President of the United States wants people in the country he’s leading to die and suffer? It’s practically droll at this point.

We should all wall ourselves into our basements. I don't have a basement, but, I mean, you guys can.

Chomsky said:

Trump put us into 2 weeks. If we went that far, I'm sure we could go the final 1 or 2 to make sure we have a handle on it.


If you think we can't handle 1 or 2 weeks more, how are you going to handle a second longer lock-down if we don't get it under control now? Give up? Contemplate that.

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There wont be a second lock down as that would be essentially total destruction of the economy and that is far worse than the virus. People do NOT have any savings that's about 40+ percent of the population. 70% have less than a thousand dollars in savings. They are literally hand to mouth. Why do you think the helicopter money is being enacted and congress is going bat**** nuts. On top of that we have no idea how much we can borrow without too much consequence, but whatever it is it wont be near enough for a second round. This is a no win situation until there is a game changer. Right now there really isn't. The flu this season has taken more people at this point. The economy is melting down as we speak. I would love to save everyone but unfortunately that isn't happening, cold hard numbers are going to come into play sooner rather than later, and those numbers say the hit from the virus is the lesser evil, by far. If we are lucky we did enough to flatten the curve. If not its going to be suckage.

Cardinal said:

I doubt it will really make a difference. You’re not wiping out enough Democrats in the cities to tilt the election in any way.

Isn’t it amazing that we just discuss matter-of-factly that the President of the United States wants people in the country he’s leading to die and suffer? It’s practically droll at this point.

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Despite my fimal flippant sentence in my post, I was otherwise speaking to Trump being willing to inflict pain on Dem areas, but not Red areas, specifically in re-electability terms. (If the voters he needs felt pain, he wouldn't do it)

As to "common droll", you are right. The worse part of this is what has now become normalized. Anyone in a coma for 3 years and awakening, wouldn't recognize the country.

Chomsky said:

Despite my fimal flippant sentence in my post, I was otherwise speaking to Trump being willing to inflict pain on Dem areas, but not Red areas, specifically in re-electability terms. (If the voters he needs felt pain, he wouldn't do it)

As to "common droll", you are right. The worse part of this is what has now become normalized. Anyone in a coma for 3 years and awakening, wouldn't recognize the country.

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Well, yes, by wanting to inflict pain on the people he’s leading, I was of course referring to Democrats.

You have to wonder what kind of weird and gross logic is going through his mind that concludes that Democrats are going to be the ones who suffer and not Republicans. What mental acrobatics are taking place in that primordial brain stem of his?

PirateMk1 said:

There wont be a second lock down as that would be essentially total destruction of the economy and that is far worse than the virus. People do NOT have any savings that's about 40+ percent of the population. 70% have less than a thousand dollars in savings. They are literally hand to mouth. Why do you think the helicopter money is being enacted and congress is going bat**** nuts. On top of that we have no idea how much we can borrow without too much consequence, but whatever it is it wont be near enough for a second round. This is a no win situation until there is a game changer. Right now there really isn't. The flu this season has taken more people at this point. The economy is melting down as we speak. I would love to save everyone but unfortunately that isn't happening, cold hard numbers are going to come into play sooner rather than later, and those numbers say the hit from the virus is the lesser evil, by far. If we are lucky we did enough to flatten the curve. If not its going to be suckage.

Click to expand...

I think, no - I know - you're sincere here. And, I very much respect that & your opinion. And quite honestly, I can't refute your opinion either. We are in uncharted territory.

But due to the 14 day gestation period, I personally would run this out for 30 days, while giving temporary relief to individuals, and then re-evaluate and open the areas we could from that point on. I think we need two more weeks to get a handle on it. But it's merely my unsupported opinion.

Thread title: Is 25 days of total lockdown the correct period to bend the curve?

Unclear IMO.

Once we lost the testing battle early on we were stuck chasing COVID-19. When were those 1M test kits supposed so show up even late then? I believe that was two Friday's ago. How many have shown up? 330,000+.

So now whether DonDon wants to believe it or not, we first have to wait till we have crested the peak of the bell curve for contagion. We need a national lock down. We need high volume, high throughput testing and we need it desperately. At the same time since we have not done the things we needed to do early and all of the issues we should have been handling in series are piling up on us and have to be handled concurrently. We have to make sure we do not overwhelm our Healthcare Delivery System.

If DonDon wants to put together a team that looks at how to come back from this on the back end...fine DonDon. You do that. But SHUT UP about it. As usual he does not know what to talk about and what to shut up about. Earth to DonDon...coming back from this involves testing as well because the first people back at work should be people that have COVID-19 antibodies in their systems, meaning they got it and now have an immunity to it.

Now we can only hope that testing in volume at high throughput ONCE WE ARE ACTUALLY DOING IT, can lead us to an understanding for the next hot spots as the epicenter for COVID-19 moves out of NY and across the country.

Gov of California has already thrown up his hands and ordered test kits from SK, tired of waiting for DonDon's phantom kits to show up.

Iceland might just save the world's butt end. They have been in widespread testing since early in February using quarantine for those that test positive. Plus they have been able to sequence and map the virus so that they can distinguish between versions of the virus as it mutates. So they can tell if a COVID-19 carrier has the Italian version, the Spanish version, one of the two Chinese versions that have been identified, etc etc.

Cardinal said:

Well, yes, by wanting to inflict pain not he people he’s leading, I was of course referring to Democrats.

You have to wonder what kind of weird and gross logic is going through his brain that concludes that Democrats are going to be the ones who suffer and not Republicans. What mental acrobatics are taking place in that primordial brain stem of his?

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Well, it might not be,

"let's inflict pain on the Dems".

It's more likely along the lines of,

"my voters are feeling more pain from the shutdown, than the virus".

And bam! He makes the decision. He probably isn't even factoring-in the Dems. He's focused on pleasing his base to remain in power. Though seeing the Dems suffer may be icing on the cake. He might even have made the political calculus to beat on the Dems' "poor coronavirus performance" to score political points during the election.

independentusa said:

Do not ask for a link as I have not been able to find one on this issue, but I heard on one of the talking head shows say that it seems that 25 days of total lockdown in China and now Italy seem to be the majic period that bends the curve of the spread of this virus. I guess it has to do with how the virus spreads and the time it takes to inncubate in a person and then to lose the ability of those who get the virus to spread it to others. So maybe instead of fighting on when to restart the econoy we should lock down the entire country for 25 days and see if as in China and maybe italy, we start to reach the end of the spread. I do not think that having one state lock down while others do not is going to do anything but prolong the issue. If Trump wants this ended as quickly as it can be safely with as few deaths as possible and to get the economy going again he should do the necessary. 25 days is better than months and months. Trump is right that even with the bail oout being presented by congress, it will not be enough if we do not end the spread and restart the economhy as quickly as possible. It will not be in a week.

Click to expand...

Only works if Everyone does it at the same time, that is not happening. We will see some hospitals overwhelmed and far more deaths than need be because we care more for money than lives.

Casper said:

Only works if Everyone does it at the same time, that is not happening. We will see some hospitals overwhelmed and far more deaths than need be because we care more for money than lives.

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Oh I think Bozo the President is headed for his own personal hell. How do you want to go out Donnie Boy....on the coffins of the people who died needlessly or on the bones of the economy?

DonDon's problem is that like most bullies he is a coward, a fear biting coward. He is losing his nerve and forgetting that even he has stated that this is not an economic problem. The virus is the problem. So you cannot turn your back on the virus in favor of the economy because the virus is STILL going to get you AND YOUR ECONOMY. Dondon has lost his nerve. What a shocker that is.

Chomsky said:

Well, it might not be,

"let's inflict pain on the Dems".

It's more likely along the lines of,

"my voters are feeling more pain from the shutdown, than the virus".

And bam! He makes the decision. He probably isn't even factoring-in the Dems. He's focused on pleasing his base to remain in power. Though seeing the Dems suffer may be icing on the cake.

Click to expand...

There are a number of things he factoring in, all bad and nightmarishly short-sighted.

1) Getting the stock market back to January numbers by trying to imagine away the pandemic. Not even a child thinks with this kind of logic.
2) Getting his businesses back up and running. The amount of money he must be bleeding is horrific.
3) Getting his voting base back to a normal working situation. See 1).

The worst case scenario is that he’s just going to go with the “let the virus do it’s thing and by November it’ll blow over” approach. But Dan Scavino must have told him by now, “Um...boss. This virus is bad for the second most significant demographic in our base. Let’s not kill the nice old people, okay?”

Chomsky said:

I think, no - I know - you're sincere here. And, I very much respect that & your opinion. And quite honestly, I can't refute your opinion either. We are in uncharted territory.

But due to the 14 day gestation period, I personally would run this out for 30 days, while giving temporary relief to individuals, and then re-evaluate and open the areas we could from that point on. I think we need two more weeks to get a handle on it. But it's merely my unsupported opinion.

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Chom I would agree with you if circumstances where different and most people had 6 months of or even 3 months or hell even 2 months of expenses saved up for emergency use. I would go for 45 days and do wide scale universal testing, both for the virus and the antibodies. Really root out all of the virus. The problem is we don't have that luxury.

I do believe when this is over and done with, we as a nation need to have a long heartfelt conversation about personal responsibility and the absolute undisputed need to be able to independently take care of oneself, financially and otherwise. We have strayed to far as a nation in this regard and we see it is biting us in the ass. We need to understand as a nation big daddy government isn't always going to be there or have the capacity to help, hence we need to be able to look to ourselves at least for a small bit of time.

jnug said:

Thread title: Is 25 days of total lockdown the correct period to bend the curve?

Unclear IMO.

Once we lost the testing battle early on we were stuck chasing COVID-19. When were those 1M test kits supposed so show up even late then? I believe that was two Friday's ago. How many have shown up? 330,000+.

So now whether DonDon wants to believe it or not, we first have to wait till we have crested the peak of the bell curve for contagion. We need a national lock down. We need high volume, high throughput testing and we need it desperately. At the same time since we have not done the things we needed to do early and all of the issues we should have been handling in series are piling up on us and have to be handled concurrently. We have to make sure we do not overwhelm our Healthcare Delivery System.

If DonDon wants to put together a team that looks at how to come back from this on the back end...fine DonDon. You do that. But SHUT UP about it. As usual he does not know what to talk about and what to shut up about. Earth to DonDon...coming back from this involves testing as well because the first people back at work should be people that have COVID-19 antibodies in their systems, meaning they got it and now have an immunity to it.

Now we can only hope that testing in volume at high throughput ONCE WE ARE ACTUALLY DOING IT, can lead us to an understanding for the next hot spots as the epicenter for COVID-19 moves out of NY and across the country.

Gov of California has already thrown up his hands and ordered test kits from SK, tired of waiting for DonDon's phantom kits to show up.

Iceland might just save the world's butt end. They have been in widespread testing since early in February using quarantine for those that test positive. Plus they have been able to sequence and map the virus so that they can distinguish between versions of the virus as it mutates. So they can tell if a COVID-19 carrier has the Italian version, the Spanish version, one of the two Chinese versions that have been identified, etc etc.

Click to expand...

Poor Icelanders always get such a bad rap. But their government actually can be pretty innovative at times.

When the '08 financial crisis hit, they basically froze the assets of the world banks in their jurisdiction, and forced them to cut a deal or they would nationalize them! It worked! They got great deals for their citizens.