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Nate Silver now givers Bernie a round 0% chance; time to drop out

3leftsdoo said:
A PERFECT example (yet again) of what a brain-dead, self-serving corporatist twit and token fauxcialist she is.

Utterly useless; the Kim Kardashian of politics.
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This, coming from the Milo Yiannopoulos of DP!
 
I think that Jason Pargin has the right of it here:

There will absolutely be a president with Bernie's platform before long, the country just isn't quite ready for it yet. Maybe it'll be AOC. But the big ideas - M4A, Green new deal, a much higher minimum wage, pot legalization, are all a permanent part of the conversation now...

Bernie Sanders did that! He changed history. But I feel like the insular nature of the internet kind of misled some people into misunderstanding the national mood. Three years of relentless Trump angst hasn't put the middle class in the mood for revolution. They want to breathe.

Your progressive dream candidate won't sell it as "revolution" or upending the establishment. They'll present it as common sense evolution. Fighting college debt and nationalizing health insurance, they'll say, will boost the economy, free up workers to advance and innovate etc.

As for right now: We just saw massive democratic turnout in key swing states among groups Trump badly needs to win. Every data point was positive for November. For whatever reason, voters who hated Hillary, like Joe Biden. And he beats Trump head-to-head:

If so, that's fantastic news for the Supreme Court and a bunch of other things. The next thing is to get progressive members of the House and Senate and Governors and state legislators - they're the only ones who can write and pass a budget, that's where the real change happens.

If the primary is effectively over, and it appears that it is unless Biden is literally arrested for being the Zodiac killer, then this is actually one of the cleanest, friendliest primaries of my lifetime. Even the negative ads were pretty dignified, comparatively.

https://twitter.com/JohnDiesattheEn/status/1237593963600556035
 
GreatNews2night said:
OK, how can we spell "it's over" any clearer?

538's Nate Silver has downgrade Bernie's chances to a round zero.

Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary? | FiveThirtyEight

Biden is now projected to finish with 2,436 pledged delegates even if Bernie doesn't drop out until the end. Such huge popular vote difference (so far, +1,472,542 and counting) and plenty of pledged delegates to win the first ballot of the convention without any help from superdelegates, should dispel any notion that the nomination is being "stolen from Bernie" like some of his fans like to say. Again, like I've been saying, for something to be stolen from you, it needs to be yours to start with, and the nomination has not been and will never be Bernie's to start with. Also, there is no rigging. There were consolidations and endorsements which are part of the normal political process in ALL elections everywhere in the world, but the people have spoken, and the people's choice is clearly Biden.

The margin of error is insufficient for Biden to drop below 1991, and also insufficient for Bernie to go up to 1991.

In national polls, the average now shows Biden 21.1% ahead of Sanders.

Decisive advantages for Biden also exist in all major states coming up this Tuesday: Florida +42.8%, Illinois +31.4%, Ohio +24%, Arizona +23.4%.

If Bernie cares for a party he always had a contentious relationship with, he should drop out at the latest after the inevitable shellacking he will get this coming Tuesday.

Something, though, tells me that he won't, which will be really, really a regrettable move.

Bernie, come on! Time to heal the party and try to keep most Bernie fans engaged in the bigger (and difficult but not impossible) task of kicking Trump out of the White House.
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Nate Silver was dead wrong in 2016.

Biden can destroy himself in the next debate... leading the Socialists to a brokered convention.
 
3leftsdoo said:
Sanders needs to stop NOW.

Before Biden has an on-camera crack-up.

Another one, that is.

:thumbs:
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Nah... I want to see the full nuclear explosion of a **** up on stage tomorrow.

Joe has it in him... he needs to let it all hang out.

The sooner it happens, the better for the Democrat Partei.
 
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zimmer said:
Hillary vs. Trump.

Go look and read his post election mea culpa.
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So you have nothing to show that Nate Silver was wrong. Figured as much.
 
GreatNews2night said:
OK, how can we spell "it's over" any clearer?

538's Nate Silver has downgrade Bernie's chances to a round zero.

Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary? | FiveThirtyEight

Biden is now projected to finish with 2,436 pledged delegates even if Bernie doesn't drop out until the end. Such huge popular vote difference (so far, +1,472,542 and counting) and plenty of pledged delegates to win the first ballot of the convention without any help from superdelegates, should dispel any notion that the nomination is being "stolen from Bernie" like some of his fans like to say. Again, like I've been saying, for something to be stolen from you, it needs to be yours to start with, and the nomination has not been and will never be Bernie's to start with. Also, there is no rigging. There were consolidations and endorsements which are part of the normal political process in ALL elections everywhere in the world, but the people have spoken, and the people's choice is clearly Biden.

The margin of error is insufficient for Biden to drop below 1991, and also insufficient for Bernie to go up to 1991.

In national polls, the average now shows Biden 21.1% ahead of Sanders.

Decisive advantages for Biden also exist in all major states coming up this Tuesday: Florida +42.8%, Illinois +31.4%, Ohio +24%, Arizona +23.4%.

If Bernie cares for a party he always had a contentious relationship with, he should drop out at the latest after the inevitable shellacking he will get this coming Tuesday.

Something, though, tells me that he won't, which will be really, really a regrettable move.

Bernie, come on! Time to heal the party and try to keep most Bernie fans engaged in the bigger (and difficult but not impossible) task of kicking Trump out of the White House.
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My prediction is that in tomorrow's debate, Bernie will walk an extremely fine line between making a last ditch effort for why he is the better candidate while simultaneously painting Biden to be the obviously superior alternative to Donald Trump.
 
Bernie lost to Hillary in 2016.

Bernie will lost to Biden in 2020.

Voters have voted on Bernie's [programs and have rejected them.

You'd think Bernie would take a hint and get out.
 
Cardinal said:
So you have nothing to show that Nate Silver was wrong. Figured as much.
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I recall this because I was laughing at his predictions changing on election night. It was epic. Still is... ROTFLOL...

how does the crow taste?

zimmer said:
Hillary vs. Trump.

Go look and read his post election mea culpa.

Here... I’ll help you.
How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump | FiveThirtyEight

Quanta Magazine

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

View attachment 67275603

View attachment 67275604
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swing_voter said:
Bernie lost to Hillary in 2016.

Bernie will lost to Biden in 2020.

Voters have voted on Bernie's [programs and have rejected them.

You'd think Bernie would take a hint and get out.
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It ain’t over.

Biden is about to **** the stage full. Everyone knows it.
 
Cardinal said:
My prediction is that in tomorrow's debate, Bernie will walk an extremely fine line between making a last ditch effort for why he is the better candidate while simultaneously painting Biden to be the obviously superior alternative to Donald Trump.
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Biden is going to be the atomic airbag... you know he’s going to crash, the bag will explode with immense force, and the **** is going to fly nationwide. :popcorn:

It’s why Democrats want an end to the debates.
 
Michael Cole said:
Everyone knows it.

Everyone also knows what desperation looks like, and it looks like "Everyone knows..."
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There isn’t anyone on the Democrat side that can beat Trump.

Desperation is the Left trying to cancel debates... we know why.

ROTFLOL...
 
zimmer said:
Biden is going to be the atomic airbag... you know he’s going to crash, the bag will explode with immense force, and the **** is going to fly nationwide. :popcorn:

It’s why Democrats want an end to the debates.
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Well, I hope you're not too disappointed when this doesn't materialize. You'd think that after asserting this over and over, it would have happened by now. But alas, the exact opposite is happening.
 
Cardinal said:
Okay, that's fair. That kind of honest self assessment is why I trust Nate Silver, and is why he went on to become consistently accurate.
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He’s gotten it wrong bigly twice in 2016... this isn’t over until they can hide Biden from the public.

I expect a tsunami of feces... and the longer Biden has to debate, the more likely we’ll see it. :popcorn:
 
Michael Cole said:
My pets could beat Trump.
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If you want to believe that... OK.

We heard the same drivel all through 2016... and since his announcing, the Goebbels Media has been wrong on every major story.

You sound like a very eager consumer of the Goebbels Media drivel. Bon Apetit!!!
 
Michael Cole said:
My pets could beat Trump.
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See, the problem I have with this assumption is that I'm not sure anybody really knows what "winning" a debate with Trump actually means.

Go find a particularly crazy homeless person screaming about fairy aliens devouring his seventh eye. Now get into a political debate with that person. What is "winning" in that scenario?
 
zimmer said:
If you want to believe that... OK.

We heard the same drivel all through 2016... and since his announcing, the Goebbels Media has been wrong on every major story.

You sound like a very eager consumer of the Goebbels Media drivel. Bon Apetit!!!
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And you sound like a troll. Bon voyage!!
 
Michael Cole said:
And you sound like a troll. Bon voyage!!
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ROTFLOL...

Stumped I see.

Not an elegant dismount, more like an attempt at a sneaky escape.

Bon Voyati to you :2wave:
 
Cardinal said:
See, the problem I have with this assumption is that I'm not sure anybody really knows what "winning" a debate with Trump actually means.

Go find a particularly crazy homeless person screaming about fairy aliens devouring his seventh eye. Now get into a political debate with that person. What is "winning" in that scenario?
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Good point. Brings up images of the film "Stonehearst Asylum."
 
zimmer said:
ROTFLOL...

Stumped I see.

Not an elegant dismount, more like an attempt at a sneaky escape.

Bon Voyati to you :2wave:
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:lamo

You're funny zimmer. Probably a good guy to have as a co-worker. For morale, not necessarily work.
 
Surrealistik said:
They probably are. So many Democrats keep forgetting (or refusing to acknowledge) this extremely important and salient fact in favour of what they would prefer to be true, even though the 2016 primary has already proven it clear as day: primaries are not general elections.
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I would imagine there are quite a few folks out there who latch on a candidate, but if that candidate doesn't win the nomination, they drop out of the process. They don't vote. My grand daughter was that way in 2016. A huge Sanders supporter, but once Hillary gained the nominate, that was it for her. She never bothered to vote in the general.

Those who don't show up for what ever reason, exit polls don't cover them. So we can't give a number as to how many support just one candidate, when that candidate lost, they sat on their duff refusing to vote in the general.
 
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