Live Thread for March 10 Democratic Primaries News and Results

[GreatNews2night]

I've been traditionally starting these threads to follow live the exit polls and results of the Democratic Primaries, so let's do another one for today's races. These threads have been very popular with lots of posts from many contributors, so thank you in advance to all of you. We've tried to keep the style and tone very civil, where we exchange views about results and their predictive value for the overall race.

The target public for this thread is Debate Politics members who are mostly Dem and Dem-leaning voters. On occasion, right-wingers have participated too, often with negative and sarcastic comments, but hey, everybody is welcome (I do hope that people will remain civil).

Nate Silver from 538 is predicting a Biden victory in all seven contests just looking at polls in terms of raw numbers, but he does acknowledge that in three contests the margin for Biden is smaller, therefore Bernie might pull off an upset. We'll see. There are six states and another chunk of voters participating: Democrats Abroad.

The three states Nate considers to be a certain victory for Biden are Michigan, Missouri, and Mississippi. Three contests where Sanders has a decent chance are Washington and Idaho plus Democrats Abroad, while North Dakota seems way more likely to go to Biden but not entirely ruled out for Sanders.

You can see more details of his predictions here:

Our Final Forecast For Today’s Primaries | FiveThirtyEight

I'm at work, with limited ability to keep checking this thread out; will be here more frequently after 5:30 or 6 PM.

My friends, enjoy another evening of thrills for us, political junkies! :cheers:

 

[GreatNews2night]

[h=5]Biden is favored everywhere on March 10[/h]Percent chance each top Democratic presidential candidate has of winning each contest, according to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast as of 9 a.m. Eastern on March 10
[TABLE="class: viz full, width: 575"]
[TR]
[TH="class: text, colspan: 1, align: left"]STATE[/TH]
[TH="class: number, colspan: 1, align: right"]PLEDGED DELEGATES[/TH]
[TH="class: heat number, colspan: 1, align: right"]BIDEN[/TH]
[TH="class: heat number, colspan: 1, align: right"]SANDERS[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]Michigan[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]125[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #0390D6, align: right"]99%[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #FDFEFF, align: right"]1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]Washington[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]89[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #6EBFE7, align: right"]60[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #A0D5EF, align: right"]40[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]Missouri[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]68[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #0390D6, align: right"]99[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #FDFEFF, align: right"]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]Mississippi[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]36[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #0390D6, align: right"]99[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #FDFEFF, align: right"]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]Idaho[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]20[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #37A7DE, align: right"]81[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #D2EBF8, align: right"]19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]North Dakota[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #1598D8, align: right"]93[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #EFF8FC, align: right"]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]Democrats Abroad*[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]13[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #62BAE5, align: right"]65[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #ACDBF1, align: right"]35[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
*Democrats Abroad started voting on March 3, but voting ends today.

 

[Phys251]

I've been traditionally starting these threads to follow live the exit polls and results of the Democratic Primaries, so let's do another one for today's races. These threads have been very popular with lots of posts from many contributors, so thank you in advance to all of you. We've tried to keep the style and tone very civil, where we exchange views about results and their predictive value for the overall race.

The target public for this thread is Debate Politics members who are mostly Dem and Dem-leaning voters. On occasion, right-wingers have participated too, often with negative and sarcastic comments, but hey, everybody is welcome (I do hope that people will remain civil).

Nate Silver from 538 is predicting a Biden victory in all six states just looking at polls in terms of raw numbers, but he does acknowledge that in three states the margin for Biden is smaller, therefore Bernie might pull off an upset. We'll see. There is another chunk of voters participating: Democrats Abroad.

The three states Nate considers to be a certain victory for Biden are Michigan, Missouri, and Mississippi. Three contests where Sanders has a decent chance are Washington and Idaho plus Democrats Abroad, while North Dakota seems way more likely to go to Biden but not entirely ruled out for Sanders.

You can see more details of his predictions here:

Our Final Forecast For Today’s Primaries | FiveThirtyEight

I'm at work, with limited ability to keep checking this thread out; will be here more frequently after 5:30 or 6 PM.

My friends, enjoy another evening of thrills for us, political junkies! :cheers:

If Sanders loses Michigan then he's probably done. If he loses Washington State, then he's definitely done.

 

[roughdraft274]

Biden is favored everywhere on March 10

Percent chance each top Democratic presidential candidate has of winning each contest, according to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast as of 9 a.m. Eastern on March 10
[TABLE="class: viz full, width: 575"]
[TR]
[TH="class: text, align: left"]STATE[/TH]
[TH="class: number, align: right"]PLEDGED DELEGATES[/TH]
[TH="class: heat number, align: right"]BIDEN[/TH]
[TH="class: heat number, align: right"]SANDERS[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]Michigan[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]125[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #0390D6, align: right"]99%[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #FDFEFF, align: right"]1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]Washington[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]89[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #6EBFE7, align: right"]60[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #A0D5EF, align: right"]40[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]Missouri[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]68[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #0390D6, align: right"]99[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #FDFEFF, align: right"]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]Mississippi[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]36[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #0390D6, align: right"]99[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #FDFEFF, align: right"]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]Idaho[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]20[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #37A7DE, align: right"]81[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #D2EBF8, align: right"]19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]North Dakota[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #1598D8, align: right"]93[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #EFF8FC, align: right"]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]Democrats Abroad*[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]13[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #62BAE5, align: right"]65[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #ACDBF1, align: right"]35[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
*Democrats Abroad started voting on March 3, but voting ends today.

That's a nasty looking chart for Sanders.

Hard to argue someone cheated him if he gets his kicked every which way.

 

[Jredbaron96]

Ron Paul 2012!

 

[GreatNews2night]

Regarding the overall state of this nomination race, Nate has the following to say:

The overall picture has become pretty clear. Our forecast views Biden as an overwhelming favorite with a 99 in 100 shot (more than a 99 percent chance) of winning a majority of pledged delegates. By contrast, Sanders is now an underdog with less than a 1 in 100 shot (0.1 percent chance) of winning a delegate majority, thanks to Biden’s strong performance on Super Tuesday and his lead in the polls. The scenario where no one wins a majority of pledged delegates has also fallen and now has just a 1 in 100 (0.8 percent) chance of occurring.

It is quite surprising that Nate now gives to Bernie just a 0.1% chance. That is 1 in 1000!!! Such a minuscule number suggests that it's already over. But Nate reminds us that before South Carolina and Super Tuesday, everybody including him thought that Biden was toast, so, he says (maybe just for good measure) that the race can still change. I doubt it, though.

In my opinion, even if Bernie gets some upsets today, March 17 looks pretty brutal for him, with polls for all states showing large leads for Biden, so whatever gains Sanders might make today are likely to be undone a week from today.

Short of some last minute scandal or huge surprise (say, Biden catches a severe case of COVID-19 :shock, the one thing that might influence the race is a debate this Thursday when only Biden and Sanders will be allowed to participate (the only other candidate, Tulsi Gabbard to whom Nate gives a 0% chance, was excluded by new rules). Let's suppose that Bernie mops the floor with Biden who exhibits numerous "senior moments", appearing clearly demented: maybe this would change the votes on March 17.

I do think that Biden is not as demented as people say, and he can get good debate performances too, like in Nevada. So, we'll see.

 

[GreatNews2night]

That's a nasty looking chart for Sanders.

Hard to argue someone cheated him if he gets his kicked every which way.

Yes, if we look at predictions for all states and territories on 538, Biden is now projected to win 44 contests, ten more than Hillary won in 2016. If this is what happens, he will finish the primaries likely with a bigger advantage in popular votes, than the one that Hillary commanded over Sanders (3.7 million).

Let's say, Biden beats Sanders by 5 million popular votes. It will be hard to argue that the nomination was "stolen from Bernie."

Yes, Bernie fans remain outraged with the rapid drop-outs and endorsements around Super Tuesday, feeling cheated again, and saying it's all rigged. I respectfully disagree. I believe that consolidation and endorsements happen every single presidential race, not only here, but in all other democracies in the world. This is normal political process, not rigging. Like I've been saying in many posts, Politics is the art of compromise, alliances, endorsements, coalitions, and even when there is some quid pro quo (such as, for example, a promise of a veep position, or a promise of endorsement in a future race for the dropping-out candidate) it's still not nefarious; it's still normal politics, since Politics is also the earning and spending of political capital. And remember, if Warren decides to endorse Sanders I'm sure you will find it all good and normal, so, you cant cheer that up while you call endorsements for the other candidate, rigging.

Rigging is a totally different thing: it involves destroying ballots for a non-preferred candidate, stuffing ballot boxes with fake votes for a preferred candidate, miscounting votes on purpose and certifying tainted totals, and so on and so for; there is no evidence of any of this happening in the 2020 Democratic Primaries.

Forces within a party getting organized behind a candidate these forces prefer, is Politics as usual. And then, still, you have to put the endorsed candidate to the test of the popular vote. If that candidate then goes ahead and overwhelmingly wins 44 states and 5 million more popular votes, then, the people have spoken, and there is no stealing. In order for something to be stolen from someone, the victim needs to have possessed it first; in 2020, it's becoming very clear that the people are not willing to grant the nomination to Sanders (who is currently behind Biden by 850,000 popular votes), so he never had it, so it's not being stolen from him.

This said, we shouldn't antagonize Sanders voters. We should welcome them and, with civility, try to convince them that while it is sad and regretful for them that their candidate did not earn the preference of most Dem and Dem-leaning voters, it is a reality they must accept, and they must survive to fight another day, so that at some future point, the United States demographics change and make the country more favorable to their ideas.

Baby boomers will die out. The future belongs to the younger generations. It doesn't seem like America is currently prepared to embrace Sanders' ideas, but in the future, this may very well be the case. In the meantime, my best advice to Bernie fans is to vote blue in November even if they have to pinch their noses, and vote down ballot for the Democrats too, because this is how they can stop Trump's string of judicial nominations that threatens to curtail their generation's dreams for a lifetime.

Even if they eventually elect a progressive president (say, AOC when she reaches the constitutional age to run), that president may be unable to help their generation if federal courts and the Supreme Court strike down every desirable piece of legislation as unconstitutional (student loan forgiveness, curbs on polluting corporations and global warming-inducing fossil fuels, extension of health coverage, etc.). And remember, while you can always survive to fight another day, meaning, you can vote out a president, a senator, or a house representative, you cannot vote out a judicial nominee, because these are lifelong appointments. They will be there, bothering you for a generation, until they die decades ahead (and Trump has been picking youngish ones).

So, Bernie fans, ask yourselves, do you want another conservative Supreme Court justice to be nominated when, inevitably, the very old Ruth Bader Ginsburg dies? If you do, vote Trump or third party or abstain. If you don't, then vote Biden even if you don't like Biden.

 

[Craig234]

Hard to argue someone cheated him if he gets his kicked every which way.

The only people talking about cheating this time seem to be Biden supports posting straw men.

 

[Chomsky]

I've been traditionally starting these threads to follow live the exit polls and results of the Democratic Primaries, so let's do another one for today's races. These threads have been very popular with lots of posts from many contributors, so thank you in advance to all of you. We've tried to keep the style and tone very civil, where we exchange views about results and their predictive value for the overall race.

The target public for this thread is Debate Politics members who are mostly Dem and Dem-leaning voters. On occasion, right-wingers have participated too, often with negative and sarcastic comments, but hey, everybody is welcome (I do hope that people will remain civil).

Nate Silver from 538 is predicting a Biden victory in all seven contests just looking at polls in terms of raw numbers, but he does acknowledge that in three contests the margin for Biden is smaller, therefore Bernie might pull off an upset. We'll see. There are six states and another chunk of voters participating: Democrats Abroad.

The three states Nate considers to be a certain victory for Biden are Michigan, Missouri, and Mississippi. Three contests where Sanders has a decent chance are Washington and Idaho plus Democrats Abroad, while North Dakota seems way more likely to go to Biden but not entirely ruled out for Sanders.

You can see more details of his predictions here:

Our Final Forecast For Today’s Primaries | FiveThirtyEight

I'm at work, with limited ability to keep checking this thread out; will be here more frequently after 5:30 or 6 PM.

My friends, enjoy another evening of thrills for us, political junkies! :cheers:

You get an early start, don't you!

But, thanks for starting this for us. I love live threads, and would even more like if we had a live chat room. But as fun as chat's are they are, they can be a moderation nightmare ...

 

[Chomsky]

[h=5]Biden is favored everywhere on March 10[/h]Percent chance each top Democratic presidential candidate has of winning each contest, according to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast as of 9 a.m. Eastern on March 10
[TABLE="class: viz full, width: 575"]
[TR]
[TH="class: text, colspan: 1, align: left"]STATE[/TH]
[TH="class: number, colspan: 1, align: right"]PLEDGED DELEGATES[/TH]
[TH="class: heat number, colspan: 1, align: right"]BIDEN[/TH]
[TH="class: heat number, colspan: 1, align: right"]SANDERS[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]Michigan[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]125[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #0390D6, align: right"]99%[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #FDFEFF, align: right"]1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]Washington[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]89[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #6EBFE7, align: right"]60[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #A0D5EF, align: right"]40[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]Missouri[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]68[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #0390D6, align: right"]99[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #FDFEFF, align: right"]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]Mississippi[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]36[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #0390D6, align: right"]99[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #FDFEFF, align: right"]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]Idaho[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]20[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #37A7DE, align: right"]81[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #D2EBF8, align: right"]19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]North Dakota[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #1598D8, align: right"]93[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #EFF8FC, align: right"]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: text"]Democrats Abroad*[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]13[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #62BAE5, align: right"]65[/TD]
[TD="class: heat number, bgcolor: #ACDBF1, align: right"]35[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
*Democrats Abroad started voting on March 3, but voting ends today.

Damn, that's absolutely fugly - from Bernie's perspective.

 

[Chomsky]

I've been traditionally starting these threads to follow live the exit polls and results of the Democratic Primaries, so let's do another one for today's races. These threads have been very popular with lots of posts from many contributors, so thank you in advance to all of you. We've tried to keep the style and tone very civil, where we exchange views about results and their predictive value for the overall race.

The target public for this thread is Debate Politics members who are mostly Dem and Dem-leaning voters. On occasion, right-wingers have participated too, often with negative and sarcastic comments, but hey, everybody is welcome (I do hope that people will remain civil).

Nate Silver from 538 is predicting a Biden victory in all seven contests just looking at polls in terms of raw numbers, but he does acknowledge that in three contests the margin for Biden is smaller, therefore Bernie might pull off an upset. We'll see. There are six states and another chunk of voters participating: Democrats Abroad.

The three states Nate considers to be a certain victory for Biden are Michigan, Missouri, and Mississippi. Three contests where Sanders has a decent chance are Washington and Idaho plus Democrats Abroad, while North Dakota seems way more likely to go to Biden but not entirely ruled out for Sanders.

You can see more details of his predictions here:

Our Final Forecast For Today’s Primaries | FiveThirtyEight

I'm at work, with limited ability to keep checking this thread out; will be here more frequently after 5:30 or 6 PM.

My friends, enjoy another evening of thrills for us, political junkies! :cheers:

Wait! Your 'specific target audience,' is 'Dem & Dem leaning'?

I'll respectively voice my dissension, even though I realize you have predicated your statement to welcome all who 'remain civil'. I personally do not support the political balkanizing of DP (or any other Americans, for that matter).

That being said, your hoped for audience is your personal prerogative, and I'm happy to have a place to share some discussion & camaraderie - even if I may perhaps divide my time if another thread pops up.

Anyway, on with my (real-life) day until the fun starts tonight ...

 

[GreatNews2night]

Wait! Your 'specific target audience,' is 'Dem & Dem leaning'?

I'll respectively voice my dissension, even though I realize you have predicated your statement to welcome all who 'remain civil'. I personally do not support the political balkanizing of DP (or any other Americans, for that matter).

That being said, your hoped for audience is your personal prerogative, and I'm happy to have a place to share some discussion & camaraderie - even if I may perhaps divide my time if another thread pops up.

Anyway, on with my (real-life) day until the fun starts tonight ...

What a misadventure, I'm just back from a trip to the emergency room! Fortunately I'm all patched up now. So I missed the action, and didn't foster this thread, it looks dead. Where is everybody?

Hey, a target audience doesn't mean others off-target are not welcome, and that's what I said.

I see that Winston started another one, let's just go there and kill this thread.

Here is Winston's:

Super Tuesday 2, Biden and Sanders face off in 6 states: LIVE updates

 

[SoCal]

Thankfully it's over and don't have to worry about Biden winning, Now I can start worrying about going through two airports and spending three hours in a closely confined space with poor ventilation (airplane cabin) on Thursday :shock: