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Thread: Looking ahead.

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    Re: Looking ahead.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chomsky View Post
    You've lost me with the bolded. Perhaps you're deriving intention, from what I believed was non-biased, non-ideological factual analysis?
    You sounded disgusted by the party 'having' to listen to the 'rank and file', i.e., the voters, viewing it as a loss to the preferred result of the party getting to choose an 'insider' and push them on the voters. I was responding to how that sounded. Perhaps you didn't mean that tone about it, feel free to clarify.

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    Re: Looking ahead.

    Quote Originally Posted by Craig234 View Post
    You sounded disgusted by the party 'having' to listen to the 'rank and file', i.e., the voters, viewing it as a loss to the preferred result of the party getting to choose an 'insider' and push them on the voters. I was responding to how that sounded. Perhaps you didn't mean that tone about it, feel free to clarify.
    I'll be happy to clarify.

    No, I am not disgusted with democratic representation, I believe the party should generally follow the rank & file popular vote. But I do believe that in a contested convention, the horse-trading among the various delegates that leads to a nominee is a normal and reasonable part of the convention. But to that effect, I'm making this last remark in reference to only the regular delegates. I'd abolish superdelegates. I'm perfectly fine with a gaggle of regular delegates banging-away to get to 50% = 1. That's their job!
    Last edited by Chomsky; 02-23-20 at 07:59 PM. Reason: emphasis
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    Re: Looking ahead.

    Quote Originally Posted by Torus34 View Post
    Thus far, few political pundits have parsed the implications of the Democratic Party convention set-up. Here's a start.

    The actual primary process prior to the convention will cough up 3,979 'pledged' delegates apportioned among the various candidates.* It's an open and shut case if the front-runner has amassed 1990 or more delegates. Everyone parties and goes home. If the front-runner hasn't reached that total, the first 'vote' of the delegates will not produce a winner. The super-delegates then vote along with the delegates from the first vote. No delegates are pledged in this or subsequent votes.

    Got that? OK.

    Now, let's assume that Senator Bernard Sanders is the leading candidate as the primaries roll along. There will come a time when the other candidates, if they drop out, will insure that Senator Sanders isn't replaced by the super delegates with another of the candidates. He'll roll into the convention with the necessary votes.

    If they decide not to drop out and someone other than Senator Sanders is selected by the convention, many of the Senator Sanders folks will, in all probability, not bother to vote. The effect of that is obvious.

    There are other scenarios, I'm sure. Have at it.

    * Nb. Some of them may be 'free' from the start if the person to whom they were pledged drops out and specifies that they should vote for someone else.
    I just finished a book on the 1920 election. Going into the Republican convention, Lenard Wood had the most delegates, but he was unable to get over the top, and after three or four ballots there was little movement and finally with exhaustion setting in Warren Harding came from nowhere to get the nomination on the tenth ballot. Don't be surprised to see the moderate candidates band together to come up with enough delegates to nominate one of their own. The key will be in stopping Bernie from running the rest of the way home. Bernie can beat Trump but he might cost us congress. With the right candidate it should be another blue wave election, just like 2018.

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    Re: Looking ahead.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chomsky View Post
    I'll be happy to clarify.

    No, I am not disgusted with democratic representation, I believe the party should generally follow the rank & file popular vote. But I do believe that in a contested convention, the horse-trading among the various delegates that leads to a nominee is a normal and reasonable part of the convention. But to that effect, I'm making this last remark in reference to only the regular delegates. I'd abolish superdelegates. I'm perfectly fine with a gaggle of regular delegates banging-away to get to 50% = 1. That's their job!
    That's not terrible, but what I think you are missing is just how much the party's priorities seem to be 'special interests' that are 'corrupted priorities', over 'the good of the country', 'the voters' interests' type priorities. We could debate a long time about who and which policies are best, but I think the bottom line is that money has corrupted the DNC quite a bit as well as corrupting Republicans entirely.

    It's damned hard for voters to overcome that situation, and Bernie is a very unusual chance to do so. It's not easy to win a nomination running against the party leaders; trump sort of did it, and Bernie is doing it. I can't think of the last time it happened. JFK sort of did it, when he changed how our nominations happen, making the primaries critical to the process. He flew to all 50 states to get around the usual process.

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    Re: Looking ahead.

    Quote Originally Posted by redrover View Post
    Bernie can beat Trump but he might cost us congress. With the right candidate it should be another blue wave election, just like 2018.
    Non-Bernie might beat trump, but could cost us Congress. With the right candidate, Bernie, it should be another blue wave election, just like 2018.

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    Re: Looking ahead.

    My take on Bernie's path to victory in the General Election (assuming he emerges as the DEM nominee):

    He obviously takes DC, then wins the same 20 states as Hillary in 2016 and the 3 battleground states of PA(20), MI(16) and WI(10) that Hillary lost.

    *For simplification, I did not factor in the possibility of Nebraska(5) and, particularly Maine(4) splitting their EVs.

    2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map

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    Re: Looking ahead.

    Quote Originally Posted by swing_voter View Post
    Bernie Bros will riot if the super delegates pick someone else.

    There will be blood on the streets.
    I was just talking to my dad about Bernie Bros today. I supported Sanders in 2016, but we were not this crazy then. Many Sanders supporters are fanatical this time. It's not a good look, but I appreciate their passion.
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    Re: Looking ahead.

    Quote Originally Posted by Moderate Right View Post
    If Bernie is the nominee he will be responsible for many people staying home and not voting or voting third party. But neither Bernie and his progressive friends care about that.
    I'd vote for Sanders, but he's like my third or fourth choice.
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    Re: Looking ahead.

    Quote Originally Posted by Diesel View Post
    I was just talking to my dad about Bernie Bros today. I supported Sanders in 2016, but we were not this crazy then. Many Sanders supporters are fanatical this time. It's not a good look, but I appreciate their passion.
    "Bernie bros" are almost entirely a lie, a propaganda invention by his opponents. In fact, Bernie's supporters are less 'white men' than other candidates, I've seen it reported. Bernie is doing great with women and non-white voters.

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    Re: Looking ahead.

    Quote Originally Posted by Craig234 View Post
    "Bernie bros" are almost entirely a lie, a propaganda invention by his opponents. In fact, Bernie's supporters are less 'white men' than other candidates, I've seen it reported. Bernie is doing great with women and non-white voters.
    Hmm, I don't think the Bernie Bros look any particular way. I don't even think they're all women. To me, a Bernie Bro is a person who strongly identifies with Sanders's proposals and positions. They tend to think that the left has been too accommodating and too moderate for decades and that now is the time to pull the Democratic party hard left. They believe so much in that particular flavor of liberalism that they often communicate in dire terms. I don't think they'll skip the election if he isn't nominated, but I will be among the people who hope to burn down the DNC if they **** all of us over again.
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