• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Is Buttigieg Toast?

Moderate Right

Moderate Right

DP Veteran
Joined
Oct 21, 2015
Messages
53,813
Reaction score
10,864
Location
Kentucky
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Conservative
I was looking at the polling in all of the Super Tuesday states and found not one poll showing Buttigieg in first place. For the most part it was all Bernie and Biden at the top of the polls with very few exceptions and not one of those exceptions was Buttigieg. Is he toast? Is he pretty much done for after Super Tuesday?
 
From what I know about primaries is that they are very volatile. You never really know until it's over.

If they don't get good showings come Super Tuesday, one or two will drop out.
 
Last night he was petty and desperate.
 
Pete been toast. He is polling at like 2% with African Americans.
 
Moderate Right said:
I was looking at the polling in all of the Super Tuesday states and found not one poll showing Buttigieg in first place. For the most part it was all Bernie and Biden at the top of the polls with very few exceptions and not one of those exceptions was Buttigieg. Is he toast? Is he pretty much done for after Super Tuesday?
Click to expand...

Yes, and yes.
 
Winston said:
Pete been toast. He is polling at like 2% with African Americans.
Click to expand...

That isn’t really a problem. A focus group of African Americans in North Carolina identified that black people don’t have a problem with Pete’s positions on the issues or his actions as Mayor of South Bend. In fact, there is widespread support of his Douglas Plan. According to that focus group, what black voters have a problem with is his sexual orientation. It isn’t insurmountable - per the participants they’d be inclined to ignore it if he were to be endorsed by black leaders and celebrities. And he is starting to see those endorsements. But even if he doesn’t, what you’re suggesting is that it’s a good thing that someone would be riding a wave of bigots and homophobes to the convention.
 
Napoleon said:
That isn’t really a problem. A focus group of African Americans in North Carolina identified that black people don’t have a problem with Pete’s positions on the issues or his actions as Mayor of South Bend. In fact, there is widespread support of his Douglas Plan. According to that focus group, what black voters have a problem with is his sexual orientation. It isn’t insurmountable - per the participants they’d be inclined to ignore it if he were to be endorsed by black leaders and celebrities. And he is starting to see those endorsements. But even if he doesn’t, what you’re suggesting is that it’s a good thing that someone would be riding a wave of bigots and homophobes to the convention.
Click to expand...

You mean the support for his Douglas Plan that he feigned with his ludicrous 'opt out' policy?

https://theintercept.com/2019/11/15/pete-buttigieg-campaign-black-voters/

Pete Buttigieg accused of falsely touting South Carolina black support - Business Insider

Democrat Pete Buttigieg overstated pledges of support from black leaders, public figures - ABC News

His sexual orientation isn't the main problem at all.
 
Surrealistik said:
You mean the support for his Douglas Plan that he feigned with his ludicrous 'opt out' policy?

The Problem With Pete Buttigieg’s “Douglass Plan” for Black America

Pete Buttigieg accused of falsely touting South Carolina black support - Business Insider

Democrat Pete Buttigieg overstated pledges of support from black leaders, public figures - ABC News

His sexual orientation isn't the main problem at all.
Click to expand...

It is according to black voters per the focus group.
 
Napoleon said:
It is according to black voters per the focus group.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure how a one off South Carolina focus group speaks definitively on behalf of black voters as a whole; even in that focus group, it was not considered by them to be disqualifying:

Access Denied

It's however telling that, rather than come to terms with the real reason Pete lacks popularity with black voters no matter where they are in this country, Pete's campaign and supporters would evidently prefer to label and dismiss them homophobic deplorables instead. Even when you consider the more systemic differentials on racial lines like approval for gay marriage, it still isn't nearly large enough to explain the huge discrepancy between white and minority support plaguing Pete's campaign.
 
No he isn't toast. He is still in the running for a VP shoulder tap... maybe.
 
Surrealistik said:
I'm not sure how a one off South Carolina focus group speaks definitively on behalf of black voters as a whole; even in that focus group, it was not considered by them to be disqualifying:

Access Denied

It's however telling that, rather than come to terms with the real reason Pete lacks popularity with black voters no matter where they are in this country, Pete's campaign and supporters would evidently prefer to label and dismiss them homophobic deplorables instead. Even when you consider the more systemic differentials on racial lines like approval for gay marriage, it still isn't nearly large enough to explain the huge discrepancy between white and minority support plaguing Pete's campaign.
Click to expand...

What black people actually said when asked directly is the “real reason.” No whitesplaining required. But I think you’ll find that geriatric white men arguing over which of them knows what is in the best interest of black people isn’t going to end well for either of them.
 
Moderate Right said:
I was looking at the polling in all of the Super Tuesday states and found not one poll showing Buttigieg in first place. For the most part it was all Bernie and Biden at the top of the polls with very few exceptions and not one of those exceptions was Buttigieg. Is he toast? Is he pretty much done for after Super Tuesday?
Click to expand...

It seems that Pete also has conservatives scared because now they are attacking him and claiming that his candidacy is over. They would ignore him if he wasn't such a threat to them.

The right is terrified of Bernie's popularity and they are creating strawmen armies right and left trying to confuse and mischaracterize his stances as somehow totatiartiain or will lead to Russia, East Germany or China. It is fun to watch for those of us who understand psychology.
 
Napoleon said:
What black people actually said when asked directly is the “real reason.” No whitesplaining required. But I think you’ll find that geriatric white men arguing over which of them knows what is in the best interest of black people isn’t going to end well for either of them.
Click to expand...

Again, statistically there's exactly zero factual basis for the assertion that the primary or only reason Pete fails with minorities is homophobia, and the findings of a single SC focus group, which doesn't even have its correspondents citing Pete's sexuality as in any way disqualifying, certainly isn't any kind of smoking gun.
 
Napoleon said:
That isn’t really a problem. A focus group of African Americans in North Carolina identified that black people don’t have a problem with Pete’s positions on the issues or his actions as Mayor of South Bend. In fact, there is widespread support of his Douglas Plan. According to that focus group, what black voters have a problem with is his sexual orientation. It isn’t insurmountable - per the participants they’d be inclined to ignore it if he were to be endorsed by black leaders and celebrities. And he is starting to see those endorsements. But even if he doesn’t, what you’re suggesting is that it’s a good thing that someone would be riding a wave of bigots and homophobes to the convention.
Click to expand...

I'm suggesting you can't make it out of a Democratic primary with 2% AA support.
 
Winston said:
I'm suggesting you can't make it out of a Democratic primary with 2% AA support.
Click to expand...

AA support is irrelevant. They don’t show up to vote and those who do will primarily vote for any Democrat in the general. You’re not going to win an election by browbeating people with the wants of 12% of the population.
 
Napoleon said:
AA support is irrelevant. They don’t show up to vote and those who do will primarily vote for any Democrat in the general. You’re not going to win an election by browbeating people with the wants of 12% of the population.
Click to expand...

That's pretty ridiculous, and historically ignorant. Who wins the primary in S.C., and elsewhere, will be directly related to who the AA community supports. Browbeating etc. is a strawman, and the idea that the AA population doesn't show up to vote is no longer accurate.

figure02.png


The big problem with turnout for the Democrats is young people, not the AA population

1494348865503.jpg
 
Moderate Right said:
I was looking at the polling in all of the Super Tuesday states and found not one poll showing Buttigieg in first place. For the most part it was all Bernie and Biden at the top of the polls with very few exceptions and not one of those exceptions was Buttigieg. Is he toast? Is he pretty much done for after Super Tuesday?
Click to expand...

Buttigieg is 2nd in Maine, but that's about it for him. Warren isn't much better, leading only in her home state. She's 4th or 5th in pretty much the rest that we have polls on for Super Tuesday. Biden is fading fairly fast. Biden is in the process of blowing a 22 point lead in South Carolina over Sanders. It's down to 4. After Super Tuesday, it probably will be a two candidate race. Sanders having the inside track.

Unless Sanders makes a huge mistake or there is a major event, happening to throws the trends into reverse, I'll pencil in Sanders vs. Trump in November. Not pen and ink yet, but pencil.
 
Moderate Right said:
I was looking at the polling in all of the Super Tuesday states and found not one poll showing Buttigieg in first place. For the most part it was all Bernie and Biden at the top of the polls with very few exceptions and not one of those exceptions was Buttigieg. Is he toast? Is he pretty much done for after Super Tuesday?
Click to expand...

He probably is off to Please Make Me VP land after Super Tuesday.
 
Perotista said:
Buttigieg is 2nd in Maine, but that's about it for him. Warren isn't much better, leading only in her home state. She's 4th or 5th in pretty much the rest that we have polls on for Super Tuesday. Biden is fading fairly fast. Biden is in the process of blowing a 22 point lead in South Carolina over Sanders. It's down to 4. After Super Tuesday, it probably will be a two candidate race. Sanders having the inside track.

Unless Sanders makes a huge mistake or there is a major event, happening to throws the trends into reverse, I'll pencil in Sanders vs. Trump in November. Not pen and ink yet, but pencil.
Click to expand...

I'd definitely keep your eraser handy. I think if Bernie gets off to a quick start and everyone else fumbles out of the gate but Biden, it will get to the point where the later states may start worrying about Bernie being the nominee and get behind Biden. I'm predicting a come from behind Biden victory and it's very possible that no candidate will get enough delegates to win outright.
 
Moderate Right said:
I'd definitely keep your eraser handy. I think if Bernie gets off to a quick start and everyone else fumbles out of the gate but Biden, it will get to the point where the later states may start worrying about Bernie being the nominee and get behind Biden. I'm predicting a come from behind Biden victory and it's very possible that no candidate will get enough delegates to win outright.
Click to expand...

A open or brokered convention hasn't happened since 1952 and that was under the old system. Not the modern primary system that went into effect in 1976. I think old age has caught up with Biden, that he hasn't enough energy and enthusiasm for a come from behind win. Biden's problem, is he is losing his biggest asset, black support. 3 weeks, perhaps 4 weeks ago, 55% of blacks supported Biden. Biden had had steady black support for around 6 months at that time. Today, 37% of blacks now are saying they support Biden. You seen this loss in South Carolina where Biden's 25 point lead on 8 Jan has shrunk to 4.

I follow trends more than numbers, Biden is slipping in every state. Some more than others, some less. A month ago, Nevada looked safely Biden who had an 8 point lead. Today, Biden is 10 points behind Sanders. It's like Biden has lost that fire in the belly if he had it to begin with.
 
Moderate Right said:
I was looking at the polling in all of the Super Tuesday states and found not one poll showing Buttigieg in first place. For the most part it was all Bernie and Biden at the top of the polls with very few exceptions and not one of those exceptions was Buttigieg. Is he toast? Is he pretty much done for after Super Tuesday?
Click to expand...

I personally think he will drop down because of him glorifying a person who committed first degree assault, and died for it.
 
I don't think he will become the nominee...maybe down the road when he's older and more experienced, but he's too green and too young right now. And Jesus, he looks like a kid! He never stood a chance to begin with.

Now having said that, the top runners are too old. Geez.
 
Perotista said:
A open or brokered convention hasn't happened since 1952 and that was under the old system. Not the modern primary system that went into effect in 1976. I think old age has caught up with Biden, that he hasn't enough energy and enthusiasm for a come from behind win. Biden's problem, is he is losing his biggest asset, black support. 3 weeks, perhaps 4 weeks ago, 55% of blacks supported Biden. Biden had had steady black support for around 6 months at that time. Today, 37% of blacks now are saying they support Biden. You seen this loss in South Carolina where Biden's 25 point lead on 8 Jan has shrunk to 4.

I follow trends more than numbers, Biden is slipping in every state. Some more than others, some less. A month ago, Nevada looked safely Biden who had an 8 point lead. Today, Biden is 10 points behind Sanders. It's like Biden has lost that fire in the belly if he had it to begin with.
Click to expand...

I believe Biden is slipping to some of the other candidates, mostly Bloomberg. After Super Tuesday, Bernie and Biden will be the only ones with several delegates in their pocket. Bernie will be ahead but with the other candidates basically gone, black support will return back to Biden and nonblacks, in the later states, when faced with a choice of either Bernie or Biden, will return to Biden. Looks to me like after Super Tuesday Bernie and Biden will be the only two really viable candidates left. Bloomberg bet big on Super Tuesday and will lose his shorts.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom