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Thread: Interesting new poll results

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    Interesting new poll results

    NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

    I can't seem to cut and paste the relevant table about matchups between the leading Dem contenders and Trump, but to summarize:

    As of 2/20/20:

    Biden, 52%, to Trump 44%

    Sanders 50% to Trump 46%

    Bloomberg 50% to Trump 43%

    Buttigieg 48% to Trump 44%

    Klobuchar 48% to Trump 45%

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    Re: Interesting new poll results

    I know it says everyone beats Trump, but I don't think it's true.

    Everyone knows the downsides of Trump, but voters haven't had time to learn about the downsides of the democrats. Once the democrats pick a candidate, there will be a lot of focus on him or her and all the bad stuff will come out.

    For example, did you know Bernie is an agnostic? How many people will vote against Bernie just for that alone? It's in the millions.

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    Re: Interesting new poll results

    Quote Originally Posted by Odysseus View Post
    NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

    I can't seem to cut and paste the relevant table about matchups between the leading Dem contenders and Trump, but to summarize:

    As of 2/20/20:

    ....
    Using your link to access your source and in light of today's date (2/18/2020) to make sense of the data, I cut and pasted the date near the top right corner, page 1 of your source.

    Date: February 14-17, 2020
    Super Tuesday (March 3rd), 14 states (plus DC) go to the polls: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado Caucus, Georgia, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota Caucus, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.

    We can expect a clear picture to emerge after evaluating the Super Tuesday results.

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    Re: Interesting new poll results

    Plus ça change...

    Poll: Hillary Clinton Holds National Lead Over Donald Trump

    Sent from my moto g(6) using Tapatalk

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    Re: Interesting new poll results

    Quote Originally Posted by swing_voter View Post

    For example, did you know Bernie is an agnostic? How many people will vote against Bernie just for that alone? It's in the millions.
    I believe Bernie Sanders is jewish.
    If you feel the burn, you probably have a UTI. #Biden2020.

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    Re: Interesting new poll results

    Quote Originally Posted by swing_voter View Post
    I know it says everyone beats Trump, but I don't think it's true.

    Everyone knows the downsides of Trump, but voters haven't had time to learn about the downsides of the democrats. Once the democrats pick a candidate, there will be a lot of focus on him or her and all the bad stuff will come out.

    For example, did you know Bernie is an agnostic? How many people will vote against Bernie just for that alone? It's in the millions.
    As I posted earlier in another thread, there is a left skew because the parties share have changed since 2016. You need to add 5 to the GOP and take off 2 from the dems ( see https://www.debatepolitics.com/gener...post1071371341 (Biden, Sanders, Bloomberg beat Trump in national polls.) ). That makes it:

    Biden, 50%, to Trump 49%

    Sanders 48% to Trump 51%

    Bloomberg 48% to Trump 48%

    Buttigieg 46% to Trump 49%

    Klobuchar 46% to Trump 50%

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    Re: Interesting new poll results

    Quote Originally Posted by Drawdown View Post
    As I posted earlier in another thread, there is a left skew because the parties share have changed since 2016. You need to add 5 to the GOP and take off 2 from the dems ( see https://www.debatepolitics.com/gener...post1071371341 (Biden, Sanders, Bloomberg beat Trump in national polls.) ). That makes it:

    Biden, 50%, to Trump 49%

    Sanders 48% to Trump 51%

    Bloomberg 48% to Trump 48%

    Buttigieg 46% to Trump 49%

    Klobuchar 46% to Trump 50%
    Unskewing polls has a horrible track record. Ask Dean Chambers in 2012 or anyone on Daily Kos in 2014. So sure that the polls were off and Romney in 2012 and the Democrats in 2014 would actually do so much better than polling indicated. Both were wrong.

    Polls weighted by Party ID are generally bad. Polls should not be weighted by dynamic statistics like that, the way people view themselves by party is much more fluid than one would think. That's one of the reasons Gallup's numbers jump around so much. That is why weighting by age, race, gender, etc. is a better polling practice and why most polls don't weight by Party ID at all. So these polls generally aren't weighted to the 2016 electorate like you seem to think.

    Even if they were, it would not be so simple as adding and subtracting simple numbers from the top lines though.

    I'm not sure why you're taking Gallup's party affiliation numbers as if they are fact, when it's just a poll conducted like any of the rest of these. What makes Gallup's party ID numbers more accurate than any of the rest of these polls?
    There should be Instant Runoff Voting

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    Re: Interesting new poll results

    my guess is that the numbers will tighten as we get closer to the election and that polls this far out are barely a ballpark estimate.

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    Re: Interesting new poll results

    I do not trust these numbers at all, all too suspect.
    "Democracy without respect for individual rights sucks. It's just ganging up against the weird kid, and I'm always the weird kid." - Penn Jillette.

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    Re: Interesting new poll results

    Sorry, for some reason i had a brain fart and thought 2/20 meant 2/20/2020. Of course it couldn't, so the poll results are about a week old. HORRORS!!!

    Still, I'd agree that in a presidential match, what will decide the election is the Electoral College, and as in 2016, the swing states will matter most.

    For the Dems, the important thing is not to let national polls like this make them complacent about the EC, which will have the final say.

    One thing I found interesting about this poll (see link in OP) is... :


    Of all registered voters polled:


    84% are comfortable to enthusiastic about a woman as president

    68% are comfortable to enthusiastic about a gay or lesbian as president


    ... The times they are a-changing!

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