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Interesting new poll results

O

Odysseus

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NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

I can't seem to cut and paste the relevant table about matchups between the leading Dem contenders and Trump, but to summarize:

As of 2/20/20:

Biden, 52%, to Trump 44%

Sanders 50% to Trump 46%

Bloomberg 50% to Trump 43%

Buttigieg 48% to Trump 44%

Klobuchar 48% to Trump 45%
 
I know it says everyone beats Trump, but I don't think it's true.

Everyone knows the downsides of Trump, but voters haven't had time to learn about the downsides of the democrats. Once the democrats pick a candidate, there will be a lot of focus on him or her and all the bad stuff will come out.

For example, did you know Bernie is an agnostic? How many people will vote against Bernie just for that alone? It's in the millions.
 
Odysseus said:
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

I can't seem to cut and paste the relevant table about matchups between the leading Dem contenders and Trump, but to summarize:

As of 2/20/20:

....
Click to expand...

Using your link to access your source and in light of today's date (2/18/2020) to make sense of the data, I cut and pasted the date near the top right corner, page 1 of your source.

Date: February 14-17, 2020
Click to expand...

Super Tuesday (March 3rd), 14 states (plus DC) go to the polls: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado Caucus, Georgia, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota Caucus, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.

We can expect a clear picture to emerge after evaluating the Super Tuesday results.
 
swing_voter said:
I know it says everyone beats Trump, but I don't think it's true.

Everyone knows the downsides of Trump, but voters haven't had time to learn about the downsides of the democrats. Once the democrats pick a candidate, there will be a lot of focus on him or her and all the bad stuff will come out.

For example, did you know Bernie is an agnostic? How many people will vote against Bernie just for that alone? It's in the millions.
Click to expand...

As I posted earlier in another thread, there is a left skew because the parties share have changed since 2016. You need to add 5 to the GOP and take off 2 from the dems ( see https://www.debatepolitics.com/gene...at-trump-national-polls-3.html#post1071371341 ). That makes it:

Biden, 50%, to Trump 49%

Sanders 48% to Trump 51%

Bloomberg 48% to Trump 48%

Buttigieg 46% to Trump 49%

Klobuchar 46% to Trump 50%
 
Drawdown said:
As I posted earlier in another thread, there is a left skew because the parties share have changed since 2016. You need to add 5 to the GOP and take off 2 from the dems ( see https://www.debatepolitics.com/gene...at-trump-national-polls-3.html#post1071371341 ). That makes it:

Biden, 50%, to Trump 49%

Sanders 48% to Trump 51%

Bloomberg 48% to Trump 48%

Buttigieg 46% to Trump 49%

Klobuchar 46% to Trump 50%
Click to expand...

Unskewing polls has a horrible track record. Ask Dean Chambers in 2012 or anyone on Daily Kos in 2014. So sure that the polls were off and Romney in 2012 and the Democrats in 2014 would actually do so much better than polling indicated. Both were wrong.

Polls weighted by Party ID are generally bad. Polls should not be weighted by dynamic statistics like that, the way people view themselves by party is much more fluid than one would think. That's one of the reasons Gallup's numbers jump around so much. That is why weighting by age, race, gender, etc. is a better polling practice and why most polls don't weight by Party ID at all. So these polls generally aren't weighted to the 2016 electorate like you seem to think.

Even if they were, it would not be so simple as adding and subtracting simple numbers from the top lines though.

I'm not sure why you're taking Gallup's party affiliation numbers as if they are fact, when it's just a poll conducted like any of the rest of these. What makes Gallup's party ID numbers more accurate than any of the rest of these polls?
 
my guess is that the numbers will tighten as we get closer to the election and that polls this far out are barely a ballpark estimate.
 
I do not trust these numbers at all, all too suspect.
 
Sorry, for some reason i had a brain fart and thought 2/20 meant 2/20/2020. Of course it couldn't, so the poll results are about a week old. HORRORS!!!

Still, I'd agree that in a presidential match, what will decide the election is the Electoral College, and as in 2016, the swing states will matter most.

For the Dems, the important thing is not to let national polls like this make them complacent about the EC, which will have the final say.

One thing I found interesting about this poll (see link in OP) is... :


Of all registered voters polled:


84% are comfortable to enthusiastic about a woman as president

68% are comfortable to enthusiastic about a gay or lesbian as president


... The times they are a-changing!
 
Odysseus said:
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

I can't seem to cut and paste the relevant table about matchups between the leading Dem contenders and Trump, but to summarize:

As of 2/20/20:

Biden, 52%, to Trump 44%

Sanders 50% to Trump 46%

Bloomberg 50% to Trump 43%

Buttigieg 48% to Trump 44%

Klobuchar 48% to Trump 45%
Click to expand...

I mean, seems nice but that's popular vote, yes? It's the EC that matters.
 
swing_voter said:
I know it says everyone beats Trump, but I don't think it's true.

Everyone knows the downsides of Trump, but voters haven't had time to learn about the downsides of the democrats. Once the democrats pick a candidate, there will be a lot of focus on him or her and all the bad stuff will come out.

For example, did you know Bernie is an agnostic? How many people will vote against Bernie just for that alone? It's in the millions.
Click to expand...

Isn't "thou shall not commit adultery" part of the 10 commandments? Do we give a **** about this anymore? Seriously?
 
Anagram said:
Unskewing polls has a horrible track record. Ask Dean Chambers in 2012 or anyone on Daily Kos in 2014. So sure that the polls were off and Romney in 2012 and the Democrats in 2014 would actually do so much better than polling indicated. Both were wrong.

Polls weighted by Party ID are generally bad. Polls should not be weighted by dynamic statistics like that, the way people view themselves by party is much more fluid than one would think. That's one of the reasons Gallup's numbers jump around so much. That is why weighting by age, race, gender, etc. is a better polling practice and why most polls don't weight by Party ID at all. So these polls generally aren't weighted to the 2016 electorate like you seem to think.

Even if they were, it would not be so simple as adding and subtracting simple numbers from the top lines though.

I'm not sure why you're taking Gallup's party affiliation numbers as if they are fact, when it's just a poll conducted like any of the rest of these. What makes Gallup's party ID numbers more accurate than any of the rest of these polls?
Click to expand...

Then I would ask you how you would reconcile the polling data provided in my link with this summary from the same source that comes to a very different conclusion ( U.S. Party Preferences Steady During Trump Era ). The only rational explanation is they skew to the left since their own polling (the previous link) contradicts what they are claiming in the second one.
 
Drawdown said:
Then I would ask you how you would reconcile the polling data provided in my link with this summary from the same source that comes to a very different conclusion ( U.S. Party Preferences Steady During Trump Era ). The only rational explanation is they skew to the left since their own polling (the previous link) contradicts what they are claiming in the second one.
Click to expand...

I don't see any contradictions in the polling between the two links, although honestly I don't think that whatever Gallup says about party ID really affects what I said about how polls shouldn't weight for it.
 
Odysseus said:
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

I can't seem to cut and paste the relevant table about matchups between the leading Dem contenders and Trump, but to summarize:

As of 2/20/20:

Biden, 52%, to Trump 44%

Sanders 50% to Trump 46%

Bloomberg 50% to Trump 43%

Buttigieg 48% to Trump 44%

Klobuchar 48% to Trump 45%
Click to expand...

Another interesting poll:

Most unpopular qualities for a prez candidate in the new NBC/WSJ poll (combined reservations + very uncomfortable):

Socialist: 67% ( Trump*, Bernie**)
Heart attack in past year: 57% (Bernie, Trump*)
75+: 53% (Biden, Bloomberg, Bernie, Trump*)
Self-funder: 41% (Bernie, Bloomberg, Trump*)
Under 40: 40% (Buttigieg)
Gay/lesbian: 27% (Buttigieg)
Woman: 14% (Klobuchar, Warren)

*Now if Trump supporters were being honest with themselves. Trump qualifies for at least 2 of those things they claim they don't like. He's "self-funding" his campaign and is over the age of 75. Bernie recently called him out on his corporate socialism and who knows if he has heart attacks or not. He has released the most unqualified medical records of any candidate ever in history. So let's just say he qualifies for the things I picked.

** Bernie is a Democratic Socialist. Different than socialist but most don't care and neither do I.
 
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