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A Brokered Democratic Convention

J

Jay59

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The path is fairly clear. Someone has to take an early lead, then falter. With 40% of the delegates committed on one day early in the primary season, that is possible. It is especially possible now that Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, the longtime front runners, have stumbled badly. Both have built significant machines in key ST states. Do either of them have enough embedded strength in the Super Tuesday states to pull a substantial block? If so, will either be able to recover from recent setbacks? There are many possible scenarios.

Here is my question. If there is no candidate chosen on the first ballot, who will the Superdelegates back? They cannot vote on the first ballot according to rule. Will they choose one candidate and end things on the second vote, or will they be as fragmented as the chosen delegates?
 
Jay59 said:
The path is fairly clear. Someone has to take an early lead, then falter. With 40% of the delegates committed on one day early in the primary season, that is possible. It is especially possible now that Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, the longtime front runners, have stumbled badly. Both have built significant machines in key ST states. Do either of them have enough embedded strength in the Super Tuesday states to pull a substantial block? If so, will either be able to recover from recent setbacks? There are many possible scenarios.

Here is my question. If there is no candidate chosen on the first ballot, who will the Superdelegates back? They cannot vote on the first ballot according to rule. Will they choose one candidate and end things on the second vote, or will they be as fragmented as the chosen delegates?
Click to expand...

Hillary will come riding in wearing her white tent top.
 
Jay59 said:
The path is fairly clear. Someone has to take an early lead, then falter. With 40% of the delegates committed on one day early in the primary season, that is possible. It is especially possible now that Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, the longtime front runners, have stumbled badly. Both have built significant machines in key ST states. Do either of them have enough embedded strength in the Super Tuesday states to pull a substantial block? If so, will either be able to recover from recent setbacks? There are many possible scenarios.

Here is my question. If there is no candidate chosen on the first ballot, who will the Superdelegates back? They cannot vote on the first ballot according to rule. Will they choose one candidate and end things on the second vote, or will they be as fragmented as the chosen delegates?
Click to expand...

Ultimately, if a brokered convention robs whoever has the plurality, it will be devastating for party unity and cohesion going into the general, and thus Democrat 2020 electoral chances; it is most certainly a nuclear option.
 
Jay59 said:
The path is fairly clear. Someone has to take an early lead, then falter. With 40% of the delegates committed on one day early in the primary season, that is possible. It is especially possible now that Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, the longtime front runners, have stumbled badly. Both have built significant machines in key ST states. Do either of them have enough embedded strength in the Super Tuesday states to pull a substantial block? If so, will either be able to recover from recent setbacks? There are many possible scenarios.

Here is my question. If there is no candidate chosen on the first ballot, who will the Superdelegates back? They cannot vote on the first ballot according to rule. Will they choose one candidate and end things on the second vote, or will they be as fragmented as the chosen delegates?
Click to expand...

I don't know what the Super Delegates will do. We haven't a brokered convention since 1952. That was way back before we went to the modern primary system in 1976. Back in the day when there were only 10-12 primaries, a lot of favorite son candidates, smoke filled rooms etc. I don't expect one this time around.

There are probably 4 or 5 states for Biden to bounce back on Super Tuesday if he does real well in South Carolina before then. Warren, not many. There is Massachusetts and perhaps California. Sanders has Vermont and California, Klobuchar Minnesota. Warren is near the bottom in almost every Super Tuesday state except her own and California. One also needs to remember Bloomberg take a pass on the first four, concentrating on Super Tuesday. That wildcard hasn't been in the mix for Iowa and NH, won't be in Nevada and South Carolina either.

Who knows what will happen between now and then? Sanders look strong in Nevada, Biden in South Carolina. Too early for me to place bets. But as of today, I'd say Sanders has taken over the front runner spot, although his front runner position is extremely weak. My take.
 
Surrealistik said:
Ultimately, if a brokered convention robs whoever has the plurality, it will be devastating for party unity and cohesion going into the general, and thus Democrat 2020 electoral chances; it is most certainly a nuclear option.
Click to expand...

The plurality party is the trump/Republican Party. Way to fall for another trump OP.

Robbing, devastation, and no cohesion are all trump BOILs. Blatant Outrageous Irrational Lies.

None of us care what a faux Bernie supporter thinks who helps trump with everyone of his posts.
 
Linc said:
The plurality party is the trump/Republican Party. Way to fall for another trump OP.

Robbing, devastation, and no cohesion are all trump BOILs. Blatant Outrageous Irrational Lies.

None of us care what a faux Bernie supporter thinks who helps trump with everyone of his posts.
Click to expand...

I've been a Sanders man since he launched back in 2015, so how about you step the **** off you delusional know-nothing?
 
Jay59 said:
The path is fairly clear. Someone has to take an early lead, then falter. With 40% of the delegates committed on one day early in the primary season, that is possible. It is especially possible now that Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, the longtime front runners, have stumbled badly. Both have built significant machines in key ST states. Do either of them have enough embedded strength in the Super Tuesday states to pull a substantial block? If so, will either be able to recover from recent setbacks? There are many possible scenarios.

Here is my question. If there is no candidate chosen on the first ballot, who will the Superdelegates back? They cannot vote on the first ballot according to rule. Will they choose one candidate and end things on the second vote, or will they be as fragmented as the chosen delegates?
Click to expand...

As was pointed out yesterday when I posted the superdelegate count showing Biden is actually in the lead overall, the dems are already considering changing the rule about first ballot voting precisely to avoid this scenario.
 
Paradoxical said:
Hillary will come riding in wearing her white tent top.
Click to expand...
That would be fun. More likely a gray pant suit to match her hair.

Surrealistik said:
Ultimately, if a brokered convention robs whoever has the plurality, it will be devastating for party unity and cohesion going into the general, and thus Democrat 2020 electoral chances; it is most certainly a nuclear option.
Click to expand...
No offense, but what party unity?

Perotista said:
I don't know what the Super Delegates will do. We haven't a brokered convention since 1952. That was way back before we went to the modern primary system in 1976. Back in the day when there were only 10-12 primaries, a lot of favorite son candidates, smoke filled rooms etc. I don't expect one this time around.

There are probably 4 or 5 states for Biden to bounce back on Super Tuesday if he does real well in South Carolina before then. Warren, not many. There is Massachusetts and perhaps California. Sanders has Vermont and California, Klobuchar Minnesota. Warren is near the bottom in almost every Super Tuesday state except her own and California. One also needs to remember Bloomberg take a pass on the first four, concentrating on Super Tuesday. That wildcard hasn't been in the mix for Iowa and NH, won't be in Nevada and South Carolina either.

Who knows what will happen between now and then? Sanders look strong in Nevada, Biden in South Carolina. Too early for me to place bets. But as of today, I'd say Sanders has taken over the front runner spot, although his front runner position is extremely weak. My take.
Click to expand...
It hasn't happened in almost 70 years, but this is a very atypical situation, not to mention a unique group of candidates.

If Biden hangs onto South Carolina, it really throws a wrench in things. The primary is on Saturday 29 February and Super Tuesday is 3 March, just three days later. That's enough for one round of stories to have an impact.
 
Linc said:
None of us care what a faux Bernie supporter thinks who helps trump with everyone of his posts.
Click to expand...

1. Surrealistik is not a faux Bernie supporter. He is a real one, and not the extremist, conspiracy theorist kind
2. Surrealistik's' posts are excellent. He has my respect.
3. So, none of us care? Speak for yourself. I do care. Many of his posts are very educational and I enjoy reading them.

As for the topic of this conversation, I think if no candidate wins the majority in first ballot, superdelegates will side with the candidate with the most delegates (that is, much proportional to the popular vote) like the Party has always done throughout its history. If not just for tradition, it is also because they must know that if they do otherwise and skip party unit, there is no path to victory in November; it's as simple as that.

So, all the crazy ideas that Hillary Clinton will walk in and be chosen, are simply, baseless conspiracy theories.
 
Drawdown said:
As was pointed out yesterday when I posted the superdelegate count showing Biden is actually in the lead overall, the dems are already considering changing the rule about first ballot voting precisely to avoid this scenario.
Click to expand...

Between considering it and doing it there is a huge different. And the link you've mentioned says that half a dozen Democrats are considering it, while the party has 771 elders. Not that impressive, huh?
 
GreatNews2night said:
Between considering it and doing it there is a huge different. And the link you've mentioned says that half a dozen Democrats are considering it, while the party has 771 elders. Not that impressive, huh?
Click to expand...

Of course not because you assume your 771 "Elders" decide this thing. The Rules and Bylaws Committee can change any of the rules before 56 days before the convention i.e. mid May. Your 771 "Elders" didn't get together and decide to sell the nomination to Bloomberg by changing the debate rules the second the blacks were gone.
 
Jay59 said:
That would be fun. More likely a gray pant suit to match her hair.


No offense, but what party unity?


It hasn't happened in almost 70 years, but this is a very atypical situation, not to mention a unique group of candidates.

If Biden hangs onto South Carolina, it really throws a wrench in things. The primary is on Saturday 29 February and Super Tuesday is 3 March, just three days later. That's enough for one round of stories to have an impact.
Click to expand...

There was a lot of talk about a brokered convention on the Republican side in 2016. 15-16 candidates. It didn't come close. Never say never, it is possible, but on my probability scale, it's way down in the single digits. The very low single digits, one, two and possibly three.

I was going over the national polls and noticed Bloomberg has shot up from almost nothing to 15% nationally. Third place, 7 behind Sanders, 3 behind Biden. Now wouldn't that be interesting, Bloomberg vs. Trump, billionaire vs. billionaire, Ex-Republican vs. Ex-Democrat. The three time Republican Trump vs. the two time Democrat Bloomberg. A 7 time party switcher vs. a 3 time party switcher.
 
Surrealistik said:
Ultimately, if a brokered convention robs whoever has the plurality, it will be devastating for party unity and cohesion going into the general, and thus Democrat 2020 electoral chances; it is most certainly a nuclear option.
Click to expand...

A brokered convention will never happen. It will cripple the nominee. The 30 member rules committee will drop the hammer if it is even looking like that could happen the week or so after Super Tuesday. You can rest assured that half plus one of them are not Bernie Bro's
 
Drawdown said:
Of course not because you assume your 771 "Elders" decide this thing. The Rules and Bylaws Committee can change any of the rules before 56 days before the convention i.e. mid May. Your 771 "Elders" didn't get together and decide to sell the nomination to Bloomberg by changing the debate rules the second the blacks were gone.
Click to expand...

Look, your agenda is to discredit the Democratic Party, so, we get that you're fomenting this kind of disinformation. Again, the superdelegates positioning themselves against the popular vote has NEVER happened. NEVER. So, I'll believe in it when I see it. As of now, there is no evidence that it will happen, other than in the minds of conspiracy theorists.

The Bloomberg issue is the easiest to explain. The debate rules established a minimum of donors, in order to ensure that candidates being given this platform were viable candidates. A latecomer joined, but he is independently rich, has said he won't accept any donations, and will finance his campaign with his own money. Being that he's got 50 freaking billion dollars, it is pretty clear that regarding finances, he is a viable candidate, so, the Debate committee adapted to the new situation and made an exception for him, because he obviously is an interesting candidate who shouldn't be excluded on grounds that he has no donors, when he intentionally refused to take donations and can afford the campaign actually better than any of the other candidates.

I'm sure the disclosure form that all candidates signed when they joined, mentioned that the Debates committee reserved itself the right to change rules if new situations occurred. They did just that, and rightly so, because it would be utterly ridiculous to exclude Bloomberg on grounds that he doesn't have "enough" donors, LOL. He is his own mega-donor.
 
The only two people that could step in and change everything would be Michael Obama,with opra as her running mate.

That would be game over...
 
Jay59 said:
The path is fairly clear. Someone has to take an early lead, then falter. With 40% of the delegates committed on one day early in the primary season, that is possible. It is especially possible now that Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, the longtime front runners, have stumbled badly. Both have built significant machines in key ST states. Do either of them have enough embedded strength in the Super Tuesday states to pull a substantial block? If so, will either be able to recover from recent setbacks? There are many possible scenarios.

Here is my question. If there is no candidate chosen on the first ballot, who will the Superdelegates back? They cannot vote on the first ballot according to rule. Will they choose one candidate and end things on the second vote, or will they be as fragmented as the chosen delegates?
Click to expand...

Jay59:

The DNC is trying to change the rules for super-delegate voting back to the way they were for Mrs. Clinton's kick at the can, enabling the 700 super-delegates to vote in the first round. Simultaneously Tom Perez, the head of the DNC, is picking super-delegates and is favouring anti-progressive, centrist delegates. Thus, the notion that a candidate can score a first ballot victory, while correct now, will not necessarily be the case by the July Democratic Convention.

DNC members discuss rules change to stop Sanders at convention - POLITICO

Mr. Bloomberg's active entry into the primary/caucus process may be more of a disrupter for centrist candidates than for the more progressive candidates. Bloomberg will more likely poach votes and delegates from centrist candidates like former VP Biden, Mr. Buttigieg, and Sen. Klobeshar, than from a progressive candidate. Thus a strong showing from a single progressive candidate might be enough to overwhelm a centrist field of candidates or even a single centrist candidate who has alienated centrist delegates. So the only way to guarantee a brokered convention is to change the rules of the nomination process by the DNC in order to allow the hand-picked super-delegates to once again vote on the first ballot.

If that happens, cries of process rigging and Tweedism will likely divide the Democratic Party and thus severely weaken its capacity to unseat President Trump, and to make gains in the Congress. Therefore a brokered convention should most definitely not be engineered and if it happens anyway, the Democrat Party leadership should be very careful how it handles it.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.
 
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GDViking said:
The only two people that could step in and change everything would be Michael Obama,with opra as her running mate.

That would be game over...
Click to expand...

Michelle Obama would win both the nomination and the general election with a blindfold and both hands tied behind her back; she wouldn't even need to pick Oprah as a running mate (I'd rather see her pick a seasoned politician, like a good senator or governor, as a running mate). It is a pity and a disgrace that she never accepted to run. Trump would have absolutely no change against her, none. And none of the current candidates in the primaries would, either.
 
GreatNews2night said:
Look, your agenda is to discredit the Democratic Party, so, we get that you're fomenting this kind of disinformation. Again, the superdelegates positioning themselves against the popular vote has NEVER happened. NEVER. So, I'll believe in it when I see it. As of now, there is no evidence that it will happen, other than in the minds of conspiracy theorists.

The Bloomberg issue is the easiest to explain. The debate rules established a minimum of donors, in order to ensure that candidates being given this platform were viable candidates. A latecomer joined, but he is independently rich, has said he won't accept any donations, and will finance his campaign with his own money. Being that he's got 50 freaking billion dollars, it is pretty clear that regarding finances, he is a viable candidate, so, the Debate committee adapted to the new situation and made an exception for him, because he obviously is an interesting candidate who shouldn't be excluded on grounds that he has no donors, when he intentionally refused to take donations and can afford the campaign actually better than any of the other candidates.

I'm sure the disclosure form that all candidates signed when they joined, mentioned that the Debates committee reserved itself the right to change rules if new situations occurred. They did just that, and rightly so, because it would be utterly ridiculous to exclude Bloomberg on grounds that he doesn't have "enough" donors, LOL. He is his own mega-donor.
Click to expand...

Sure I am discrediting the dems by posting the truth :lol:

The same 30 people who decided to change the debate rules to get in bloomberg will gladly change the convention rules to stop a train wreck live on national television. The funny thing is you are so in the bag you refuse to even think about what you are arguing. Stopping a train wreck =/= discrediting the DNC.
 
Perotista said:
There was a lot of talk about a brokered convention on the Republican side in 2016. 15-16 candidates. It didn't come close. Never say never, it is possible, but on my probability scale, it's way down in the single digits. The very low single digits, one, two and possibly three.
Click to expand...
Actually Nate from 538.com who started giving it a 4% possibility, has then upgraded it to 16%, then 33%, and now 40%, or two in five. He did say that the prediction model lacks data and will be a lot clearer after Super Tuesday, actually.
I was going over the national polls and noticed Bloomberg has shot up from almost nothing to 15% nationally. Third place, 7 behind Sanders, 3 behind Biden. Now wouldn't that be interesting, Bloomberg vs. Trump, billionaire vs. billionaire, Ex-Republican vs. Ex-Democrat. The three time Republican Trump vs. the two time Democrat Bloomberg. A 7 time party switcher vs. a 3 time party switcher.
Click to expand...
Even though Bloomberg will grow more, it's still unlikely that he will win the nomination. Nate gives him something like a one in 15 chance.

FiveThirtyEight | Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about politics, sports, science, economics and culture.
 
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Jay59 said:
The path is fairly clear. Someone has to take an early lead, then falter. With 40% of the delegates committed on one day early in the primary season, that is possible. It is especially possible now that Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, the longtime front runners, have stumbled badly. Both have built significant machines in key ST states. Do either of them have enough embedded strength in the Super Tuesday states to pull a substantial block? If so, will either be able to recover from recent setbacks? There are many possible scenarios.

Here is my question. If there is no candidate chosen on the first ballot, who will the Superdelegates back? They cannot vote on the first ballot according to rule. Will they choose one candidate and end things on the second vote, or will they be as fragmented as the chosen delegates?
Click to expand...
Chances are slim to none that they chose Sanders

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 
Drawdown said:
Sure I am discrediting the dems by posting the truth :lol:

The same 30 people who decided to change the debate rules to get in bloomberg will gladly change the convention rules to stop a train wreck live on national television. The funny thing is you are so in the bag you refuse to even think about what you are arguing. Stopping a train wreck =/= discrediting the DNC.
Click to expand...

The truth? You're posting a speculation based on ONE source that mentioned (without naming names) "half a dozen of people." LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL (one laughing out loud for each of your six anonymous people who are allegedly saying that).

There is no train wreck in having a convention in which no candidate makes 50%+1 in the first ballot. There are provisions for that. Delegates are then allowed to realign for second ballot. It's not the disaster you're mentioning. There is no need for a vast conspiracy. If no candidate makes 50%+1 the party will simply rally behind the candidate with the most delegates in second ballot, like they've ALWAYS done in the ENTIRE history of the Democratic Party.

Your agenda is clear, and it is dismissed.
 
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trouble13 said:
Chances are slim to none that they chose Sanders

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Actually chances are 1 in 3 that they pick Sanders, more than any other candidate, according to 538:

FiveThirtyEight | Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about politics, sports, science, economics and culture.

Biden 1 in 8.
Bloomberg 1 in 15.
Buttigieg 1 in 25.
Warren 1 in 50 (drop out already, Liz!)

The chance of no majority has increased and is now 2 in 5, therefore, the most likely outcome.
 
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GreatNews2night said:
The truth? You're posting a speculation based on ONE source that mentioned (without naming names) "half a dozen of people."

There is no train wreck in having a convention in which no candidate makes 50%+1 in the first ballot. There are provisions for that. Delegates are then allowed to realign for second ballot. It's not the disaster you're mentioning. There is no need for a vast conspiracy. If no candidate makes 50%+1 the party will simply rally behind the candidate with the most delegates in second ballot, like they've ALWAYS done in the ENTIRE history of the Democratic Party.

Your agenda is clear, and it is dismissed.
Click to expand...

I am glad they have the Rules Committee to decide these things instead of pouty children. Their job is to anticipate problems and try to avoid them. They will do their job despite people like you hoping to see the train wreck. You can rest assured after Super Tuesday, unless a single candidate sweeps up most all the delegates all Trump style, the 20 percent already discussing the change will be 15 +1 and your hope that there will be a brokered convention will be up in smoke. The superdelegates will decide the nominee on the first round of voting. You can take that to the bank.
 
Drawdown said:
I am glad they have the Rules Committee to decide these things instead of pouty children. Their job is to anticipate problems and try to avoid them. They will do their job despite people like you hoping to see the train wreck. You can rest assured after Super Tuesday, unless a single candidate sweeps up most all the delegates all Trump style, the 20 percent already discussing the change will be 15 +1 and your hope that there will be a brokered convention will be up in smoke. The superdelegates will decide the nominee on the first round of voting. You can take that to the bank.
Click to expand...

The person who wants a train wreck is you, since you are NOT a Dem supporter. Oh, from half a dozen (still not named) people (which I take as a way of speaking) you're now upgrading to 20%? Based on what? Based on your wishful thinking??? You quoted earlier this same POLITICO article that is going around in this very thread. Have you actually read your own source? It says:

Even proponents of the change acknowledge it is all but certain not to gain enough support to move past these initial conversations.
Click to expand...
It's about to happen, huh? LOL LOL LOL

What part of "it's all but certain not to gain enough support" you don't understand???

Why do you think I have any hope that there will be a brokered convention? I hope there isn't one. I hope the top candidate wins it cleanly in first ballot. I'm just saying, a second ballot is not the train wreck that you are anticipating (because YOU want to see a mess, or a non-legitimate pick, so that your beloved Trump gets away with another win).

Who do you think you are fooling? Hint: no one. We all know what you stand for.
 
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Evilroddy said:
Jay59:

The DNC is trying to change the rules for super-delegate voting back to the way they were for Mrs. Clinton's kick at the can, enabling the 700 super-delegates to vote in the first round. Simultaneously Tom Perez, the head of the DNC, is picking super-delegates and is favouring anti-progressive, centrist delegates. Thus, the notion that a candidate can score a first ballot victory, while correct now, will not necessarily be the case by the July Democratic Convention.

DNC members discuss rules change to stop Sanders at convention - POLITICO

Mr. Bloomberg's active entry into the primary/caucus process may be more of a disrupter for centrist candidates than for the more progressive candidates. Bloomberg will more likely poach votes and delegates from centrist candidates like former VP Biden, Mr. Buttigieg, and Sen. Klobeshar, than from a progressive candidate. Thus a strong showing from a single progressive candidate might be enough to overwhelm a centrist field of candidates or even a single centrist candidate who has alienated centrist delegates. So the only way to guarantee a brokered convention is to change the rules of the nomination process by the DNC in order to allow the hand-picked super-delegates to once again vote on the first ballot.

If that happens, cries of process rigging and Tweedism will likely divide the Democratic Party and thus severely weaken its capacity to unseat President Trump, and to make gains in the Congress. Therefore a brokered convention should most definitely not be engineered and if it happens anyway, the Democrat Party leadership should be very careful how it handles it.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.
Click to expand...

From your own article, it says "a small group" and "half a dozen." Have you actually read your own source? It says:

Even proponents of the change acknowledge it is all but certain not to gain enough support to move past these initial conversations.
Click to expand...

From this to conclude that it is a done deal is a HUGE leap.

Yawn. Wake me up when it actually happens.

As of now, it's just a conspiracy theory.

By the way, superdelegates have always been hand-picked, but they have NEVER positioned themselves against the popular vote, and there is no reason to suspect that it will happen this time, for the very reasons you've mentioned in your last paragraph.
 
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