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Thread: A Brokered Democratic Convention

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    A Brokered Democratic Convention

    The path is fairly clear. Someone has to take an early lead, then falter. With 40% of the delegates committed on one day early in the primary season, that is possible. It is especially possible now that Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, the longtime front runners, have stumbled badly. Both have built significant machines in key ST states. Do either of them have enough embedded strength in the Super Tuesday states to pull a substantial block? If so, will either be able to recover from recent setbacks? There are many possible scenarios.

    Here is my question. If there is no candidate chosen on the first ballot, who will the Superdelegates back? They cannot vote on the first ballot according to rule. Will they choose one candidate and end things on the second vote, or will they be as fragmented as the chosen delegates?

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    Re: A Brokered Democratic Convention

    Quote Originally Posted by Jay59 View Post
    The path is fairly clear. Someone has to take an early lead, then falter. With 40% of the delegates committed on one day early in the primary season, that is possible. It is especially possible now that Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, the longtime front runners, have stumbled badly. Both have built significant machines in key ST states. Do either of them have enough embedded strength in the Super Tuesday states to pull a substantial block? If so, will either be able to recover from recent setbacks? There are many possible scenarios.

    Here is my question. If there is no candidate chosen on the first ballot, who will the Superdelegates back? They cannot vote on the first ballot according to rule. Will they choose one candidate and end things on the second vote, or will they be as fragmented as the chosen delegates?
    Hillary will come riding in wearing her white tent top.
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    Re: A Brokered Democratic Convention

    Quote Originally Posted by Jay59 View Post
    The path is fairly clear. Someone has to take an early lead, then falter. With 40% of the delegates committed on one day early in the primary season, that is possible. It is especially possible now that Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, the longtime front runners, have stumbled badly. Both have built significant machines in key ST states. Do either of them have enough embedded strength in the Super Tuesday states to pull a substantial block? If so, will either be able to recover from recent setbacks? There are many possible scenarios.

    Here is my question. If there is no candidate chosen on the first ballot, who will the Superdelegates back? They cannot vote on the first ballot according to rule. Will they choose one candidate and end things on the second vote, or will they be as fragmented as the chosen delegates?
    Ultimately, if a brokered convention robs whoever has the plurality, it will be devastating for party unity and cohesion going into the general, and thus Democrat 2020 electoral chances; it is most certainly a nuclear option.
    "The amount of energy necessary to refute bull**** is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it." -Alberto Brandolini

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    Re: A Brokered Democratic Convention

    Quote Originally Posted by Jay59 View Post
    The path is fairly clear. Someone has to take an early lead, then falter. With 40% of the delegates committed on one day early in the primary season, that is possible. It is especially possible now that Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, the longtime front runners, have stumbled badly. Both have built significant machines in key ST states. Do either of them have enough embedded strength in the Super Tuesday states to pull a substantial block? If so, will either be able to recover from recent setbacks? There are many possible scenarios.

    Here is my question. If there is no candidate chosen on the first ballot, who will the Superdelegates back? They cannot vote on the first ballot according to rule. Will they choose one candidate and end things on the second vote, or will they be as fragmented as the chosen delegates?
    I don't know what the Super Delegates will do. We haven't a brokered convention since 1952. That was way back before we went to the modern primary system in 1976. Back in the day when there were only 10-12 primaries, a lot of favorite son candidates, smoke filled rooms etc. I don't expect one this time around.

    There are probably 4 or 5 states for Biden to bounce back on Super Tuesday if he does real well in South Carolina before then. Warren, not many. There is Massachusetts and perhaps California. Sanders has Vermont and California, Klobuchar Minnesota. Warren is near the bottom in almost every Super Tuesday state except her own and California. One also needs to remember Bloomberg take a pass on the first four, concentrating on Super Tuesday. That wildcard hasn't been in the mix for Iowa and NH, won't be in Nevada and South Carolina either.

    Who knows what will happen between now and then? Sanders look strong in Nevada, Biden in South Carolina. Too early for me to place bets. But as of today, I'd say Sanders has taken over the front runner spot, although his front runner position is extremely weak. My take.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: A Brokered Democratic Convention

    Quote Originally Posted by Surrealistik View Post
    Ultimately, if a brokered convention robs whoever has the plurality, it will be devastating for party unity and cohesion going into the general, and thus Democrat 2020 electoral chances; it is most certainly a nuclear option.
    The plurality party is the trump/Republican Party. Way to fall for another trump OP.

    Robbing, devastation, and no cohesion are all trump BOILs. Blatant Outrageous Irrational Lies.

    None of us care what a faux Bernie supporter thinks who helps trump with everyone of his posts.
    Be not afraid of an open convention.

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    Re: A Brokered Democratic Convention

    Quote Originally Posted by Linc View Post
    The plurality party is the trump/Republican Party. Way to fall for another trump OP.

    Robbing, devastation, and no cohesion are all trump BOILs. Blatant Outrageous Irrational Lies.

    None of us care what a faux Bernie supporter thinks who helps trump with everyone of his posts.
    I've been a Sanders man since he launched back in 2015, so how about you step the **** off you delusional know-nothing?
    "The amount of energy necessary to refute bull**** is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it." -Alberto Brandolini

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    Re: A Brokered Democratic Convention

    Quote Originally Posted by Jay59 View Post
    The path is fairly clear. Someone has to take an early lead, then falter. With 40% of the delegates committed on one day early in the primary season, that is possible. It is especially possible now that Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, the longtime front runners, have stumbled badly. Both have built significant machines in key ST states. Do either of them have enough embedded strength in the Super Tuesday states to pull a substantial block? If so, will either be able to recover from recent setbacks? There are many possible scenarios.

    Here is my question. If there is no candidate chosen on the first ballot, who will the Superdelegates back? They cannot vote on the first ballot according to rule. Will they choose one candidate and end things on the second vote, or will they be as fragmented as the chosen delegates?
    As was pointed out yesterday when I posted the superdelegate count showing Biden is actually in the lead overall, the dems are already considering changing the rule about first ballot voting precisely to avoid this scenario.

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    Re: A Brokered Democratic Convention

    Quote Originally Posted by Paradoxical View Post
    Hillary will come riding in wearing her white tent top.
    That would be fun. More likely a gray pant suit to match her hair.

    Quote Originally Posted by Surrealistik View Post
    Ultimately, if a brokered convention robs whoever has the plurality, it will be devastating for party unity and cohesion going into the general, and thus Democrat 2020 electoral chances; it is most certainly a nuclear option.
    No offense, but what party unity?

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    I don't know what the Super Delegates will do. We haven't a brokered convention since 1952. That was way back before we went to the modern primary system in 1976. Back in the day when there were only 10-12 primaries, a lot of favorite son candidates, smoke filled rooms etc. I don't expect one this time around.

    There are probably 4 or 5 states for Biden to bounce back on Super Tuesday if he does real well in South Carolina before then. Warren, not many. There is Massachusetts and perhaps California. Sanders has Vermont and California, Klobuchar Minnesota. Warren is near the bottom in almost every Super Tuesday state except her own and California. One also needs to remember Bloomberg take a pass on the first four, concentrating on Super Tuesday. That wildcard hasn't been in the mix for Iowa and NH, won't be in Nevada and South Carolina either.

    Who knows what will happen between now and then? Sanders look strong in Nevada, Biden in South Carolina. Too early for me to place bets. But as of today, I'd say Sanders has taken over the front runner spot, although his front runner position is extremely weak. My take.
    It hasn't happened in almost 70 years, but this is a very atypical situation, not to mention a unique group of candidates.

    If Biden hangs onto South Carolina, it really throws a wrench in things. The primary is on Saturday 29 February and Super Tuesday is 3 March, just three days later. That's enough for one round of stories to have an impact.

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    Re: A Brokered Democratic Convention

    Quote Originally Posted by Linc View Post
    None of us care what a faux Bernie supporter thinks who helps trump with everyone of his posts.
    1. Surrealistik is not a faux Bernie supporter. He is a real one, and not the extremist, conspiracy theorist kind
    2. Surrealistik's' posts are excellent. He has my respect.
    3. So, none of us care? Speak for yourself. I do care. Many of his posts are very educational and I enjoy reading them.

    As for the topic of this conversation, I think if no candidate wins the majority in first ballot, superdelegates will side with the candidate with the most delegates (that is, much proportional to the popular vote) like the Party has always done throughout its history. If not just for tradition, it is also because they must know that if they do otherwise and skip party unit, there is no path to victory in November; it's as simple as that.

    So, all the crazy ideas that Hillary Clinton will walk in and be chosen, are simply, baseless conspiracy theories.
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    Re: A Brokered Democratic Convention

    Quote Originally Posted by Drawdown View Post
    As was pointed out yesterday when I posted the superdelegate count showing Biden is actually in the lead overall, the dems are already considering changing the rule about first ballot voting precisely to avoid this scenario.
    Between considering it and doing it there is a huge different. And the link you've mentioned says that half a dozen Democrats are considering it, while the party has 771 elders. Not that impressive, huh?
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