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Thread: A Brokered Democratic Convention

  1. #71
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    Re: A Brokered Democratic Convention

    Quote Originally Posted by GreatNews2night View Post
    Nah. It won't happen. Mark my words.
    GN2N:

    I hope you're right but I don't trust the kingmakers in the DNC so I watch them closely.

    Cheers and I'm rooting for you to be right.
    Evilroddy.
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    Re: A Brokered Democratic Convention

    Quote Originally Posted by Jay59 View Post
    The path is fairly clear. Someone has to take an early lead, then falter. With 40% of the delegates committed on one day early in the primary season, that is possible. It is especially possible now that Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, the longtime front runners, have stumbled badly. Both have built significant machines in key ST states. Do either of them have enough embedded strength in the Super Tuesday states to pull a substantial block? If so, will either be able to recover from recent setbacks? There are many possible scenarios.

    Here is my question. If there is no candidate chosen on the first ballot, who will the Superdelegates back? They cannot vote on the first ballot according to rule. Will they choose one candidate and end things on the second vote, or will they be as fragmented as the chosen delegates?
    They will back biden, they always go for the dem establishment
    Hes [Chinese President Xi Jinping] now president for life. President for life. And hes great, Trump said. I think its great. Maybe well give that a shot someday. ---Donald J. Trump

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    Re: A Brokered Democratic Convention

    Quote Originally Posted by JackA View Post
    All conventions should be brokered. We have Trump thanks to a non-brokered convention. Primaries are a bad idea, as the Founders would tell you if they could.
    Guy, learn some history.

    Quote Originally Posted by GreatNews2night View Post
    And physically. The campaign took a big toll on her in 2016. She was already low energy there, and skipping ground campaigning in essential states. Hillary would lose in 2020 by a bigger margin than in 2016, and she probably knows it, so, she wants to preserve her legacy of "at least I won the popular vote and if not for Conmey and the Russians I would have won." Frankly, it's the best she can expect. Any attempt to redo it would shatter even that illusion.
    Biden is even worse. He looks disinterested and disoriented.

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Sanders has the lead in Nevada today. He should win there. South Carolina is another matter. Super Tuesday may not be kind to him or Warren. But who knows for sure? Who thought Buttigieg would come on strong and Klobuchar surprise in NH. Sanders was up by 10 in both Iowa and NH a week before their caucus and primary. It looked like smooth sailing, Sanders won, but Buttigieg was the big news out of Iowa, Klobuchar out of NH. Still, I would put Sanders as the front runner at this point. Very weak, but a front runner nonetheless.
    Check the dates on the polls. The ones I saw were a month old.

    Quote Originally Posted by OscarLevant View Post
    They will back biden, they always go for the dem establishment
    Not if Joe keeps this up. It would be like running Mueller.

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    Re: A Brokered Democratic Convention

    Quote Originally Posted by Moderate Right View Post
    Personally, I think it means a lot that NH is Bernie's nextdoor neighbor and he easily won in 2016 with 60% but in 2020 in that same nextdoor state Bernie just squeaked through, winning by a very small margin and only 25% of the vote. I just don't see how that can be good news for Bernie.
    If you actually run the math you can see Sanders did about comparably well relative to the number of serious participants/contenders.

    There were only 2 serious contenders in NH in 2016, giving us a baseline of 50% (100% of the vote divided by 2); he outperformed the baseline by 20% with 60% of the vote; pretty good.

    In 2020 by contrast, we have 5 serious contenders, giving us a baseline of 20%, which Sanders outperformed by 28% (25.6%), and this is despite less prominent candidates playing a much more significant role.
    Last edited by Surrealistik; 02-14-20 at 01:14 AM.
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    Re: A Brokered Democratic Convention

    Quote Originally Posted by Jay59 View Post
    Guy, learn some history.

    Take your own advice. The Founders wanted Presidential candidates selected by educated and accomplished citizens (men) before they were put before impressionable voters. Primaries are a Twentieth Century invention. I've taught history, by the way.
    Last edited by JackA; 02-14-20 at 07:36 AM.
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    Re: A Brokered Democratic Convention

    Quote Originally Posted by 3leftsdoo View Post
    Bernie supporters would NOT be happy, and it's as easy to cheat someone in on the 2nd ballot as the 1st, so why go out of their way to make the chicanery apparent?

    Even the DP isn't that stupid.

    Probably...

    It is about the optics. A floor fight makes the nominee look weak coming out of the convention and will royally piss off those who supported the other candidate(s)

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    Re: A Brokered Democratic Convention

    Quote Originally Posted by Evilroddy View Post
    GN2N:

    I hope you're right but I don't trust the kingmakers in the DNC so I watch them closely.

    Cheers and I'm rooting for you to be right.
    Evilroddy.
    Why do you ignore the fact that your so-called "kingmakers" (and I assume you are including superdelegates among these "kingmakers") have NEVER, EVER sided with a candidate different from the one who won the popular vote in the primaries?

    Again, this has NEVER happened.

    This time there are even bigger reasons for this not to happen, since the Dems are facing an uphill battle against an incumbent that can only be defeated with a broad coalition, and given the bitterness of 2016, any shenanigans will shatter any possibility of such coalition and would be utter political suicide. Sure, Dems have a knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, but even these incompetents should know better and not commit such a clear political suicide. That's why party elders are saying that it won't happen, and the very article you quoted said that even if some misguided party members (defined in your article as a "small group" and "half a dozen") are trying to discuss this possibility, even the proponents, according to your own article, acknowledge that "it is all but certain" that the idea will not get any support and won't progress beyond this vague discussion.

    Look, the opposing party and other players (like the Russians) will have a huge interest in fostering discord, chaos, and turmoil among the Democrats so they will keep talking about conspiracy theories that it is all "rigged" and meant to "steal the nomination from Bernie" because they know that the Bernie supporters are the most susceptible to believe in these CTs and to quit and sit out or even vote for Trump, so the enemies of the party will be willing to fan the flames of "Bernie or Bust."

    Just look at Iowa, the VERY FIRST contest. There was a regrettable glitch in the app purchased to report results. Without the app, precinct leaders made a stinky mess and even botched the percentage calculations. Reporting it to the central party became a nightmare - and very significantly, Republican supporters then started calling the State Dem Party headquarters non-stop to clog the phone lines and further disrupt the reporting. Don't you see a pattern here? They WANT the Democratic field to be messy because they know it will foster the conspiracy theories, which favor their candidate (Trump).

    So the State Dem Party said they would recanvass everything to make sure the paper trails were correctly used to get correct and accurate results.

    This was immediately taken by Bernie supporters as an attempt to rig the vote and steal it from Bernie, when even Bernie himself said he saw no evidence of tampering, just inaccuracies that needed to be corrected (which was the intention of the State party anyway).

    So, Bernie supporters are avid to find evidence that "it is all rigged and they will steal it from Bernie." Posts like yours, which foster this idea based on ONE article, very vague, with no names named, talking about a "small group" and a "half-dozen," and adds that IT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN, only inappropriately fan the flames of this sentiment, and only hurt the Democratic Party and its chances in November.

    I don't know if you fully realize that when you give credence to these vague rumors, you are helping Trump. That wouldn't be a smart thing to do unless you are a Trump supporter, which I don't believe you are.

    You know, media outlets want to sell advertising and collect clicks. That's why the headlines are so bombastic - "Democrats are considering reinstating superdelegate votes in the first ballot" but then when you go and read the article, if you pay attention, it says there that it's only a "small group" and "half a dozen" and it is discouraged by party leaders and even the proponents acknowledge that it is not going to happen.

    However many readers don't go to the trouble of reading the full article and paying attention to all phrases there. They get the bombastic title and say, "see? It's all rigged and they are stealing it from Bernie!!!!! The sky is falling!!!!"

    I find it all deeply regretful, and I'm discouraged that an intelligent poster like you is being a complicit in spreading these innuendos that are ultimately baseless.
    ----------------
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    Re: A Brokered Democratic Convention

    Quote Originally Posted by Surrealistik View Post
    If you actually run the math you can see Sanders did about comparably well relative to the number of serious participants/contenders.

    There were only 2 serious contenders in NH in 2016, giving us a baseline of 50% (100% of the vote divided by 2); he outperformed the baseline by 20% with 60% of the vote; pretty good.

    In 2020 by contrast, we have 5 serious contenders, giving us a baseline of 20%, which Sanders outperformed by 28% (25.6%), and this is despite less prominent candidates playing a much more significant role.
    Excellent point! You gave a clear mathematical explanation that holds.
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    In November 2020, Vote Blue No Matter Who

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    Re: A Brokered Democratic Convention

    Quote Originally Posted by 3leftsdoo View Post
    That WOULD be great, but it would destroy what little credibility the Democrat Party has left.

    They'll cheat Wall Street Pete in rather than cheating Bloomturd in, and all to look like they're not cheating.

    Those Democrats!
    Just another example of trumps supporters having the intellect of five year olds...

    Sad

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    Re: A Brokered Democratic Convention

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Sanders has the lead in Nevada today. He should win there. South Carolina is another matter. Super Tuesday may not be kind to him or Warren. But who knows for sure? Who thought Buttigieg would come on strong and Klobuchar surprise in NH.

    Sanders was up by 10 in both Iowa and NH a week before their caucus and primary. It looked like smooth sailing, Sanders won, but Buttigieg was the big news out of Iowa, Klobuchar out of NH. Still, I would put Sanders as the front runner at this point. Very weak, but a front runner nonetheless.
    There is a part of the electorate who had wanted Biden, the so called moderate, and when Biden started tanking those moderate votes started getting divvied up between Buttigieg and Klobachar, not even counting Bloomberg's rise in the polls.

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