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Why I Believe This Uptrend Is About To End

Luckyone

Luckyone

DP Veteran
Joined
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Messages
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Location
Miami, FL
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Independent
Being an analyst in the stock market, I am constantly looking at what is happening economically to drive prices up.

It is definitely true that Trump (a Republican) getting elected and the subsequent Tax cut done in 2017 have helped companies be successful and therefore causing the stock market to rally to new all time highs.

Nonetheless, the one thing that everyone on this board is not aware of is that this stock market rally has been fed by the big companies and not the small ones. A few months ago, I stated that these new highs made were unique inasmuch as there were as many companies making new 52-week lows as companies making new 52-week highs. The reason for this is simple. The tax cut helped the rich companies much more than the smaller companies given the it allowed the big companies to overwhelm the smaller companies with lower prices, faster deliveries, and more product.

In many ways, this is a positive overall but only for a very short time given that the smaller companies will be going out of business and leaving only the big companies in control. When that begins to happen, unemployment will go up as there will be less companies in business and the big companies being totally technically driven by computers and technology will not make up the difference in hiring people. In addition, it causes monopolies to be made, which in turn causes these big companies to get greedy and charge more for their products, knowing that their consumers will not be able to get the products elsewhere since those companies will be out of business.

This is perfectly shown in the FANG Index which is an index that was formed in June 2018 and represents the 10 most innovative and successful companies in the Tech Industry. This is clearly shown in the charts where the SPX has rallied 24% in the past 6 months whereas the FANG has rallied 52%. This means most of the money is going into these 10 big Tech companies.

Monopolies are never good for the economic health of a nation because greed takes over and everyone suffers from that.

I also want to mention that this FANG Index also shows in a tangential way that our nation economically is nowhere near as good most Trump supporters think it is. When most of the benefits of the Tax cut and of the growing economy is going into only 10 big companies and the rest of the smaller companies are going broke, it won't be long before everything breaks.

Another perfect example of how all of this is affecting our businesses, there are 2 agricultural companies that I recently bought shares in given that the trade war is over for now and agricultural companies should have been the beneficiaries of that. One of the companies is CVGW, which is the biggest avocado grower in the United States. Surprise, surprise but instead of these companies heading higher, these companies are making multi-month lows. Another stock that fortunately I am short on is BEN. BEN is an asset management company that provides its services to individuals, institutions, pension plans, trusts, and partnerships (not to the big companies) and this stock just today made a new 11-year low.

It is evident that this economy and this stock market is tailored to the few uber rich companies and that is not supposed to be the backbone of our country.
 
Good comments, and they support our continuing rush to more plutocracy.

The question seems to be whether the downturn will happen before the election, or soon after. I saw the claim 74% of surveyed economists predict a recession by the end of 2021.
 
Luckyone said:
Being an analyst in the stock market, I am constantly looking at what is happening economically to drive prices up.

It is definitely true that Trump (a Republican) getting elected and the subsequent Tax cut done in 2017 have helped companies be successful and therefore causing the stock market to rally to new all time highs.

Nonetheless, the one thing that everyone on this board is not aware of is that this stock market rally has been fed by the big companies and not the small ones. A few months ago, I stated that these new highs made were unique inasmuch as there were as many companies making new 52-week lows as companies making new 52-week highs. The reason for this is simple. The tax cut helped the rich companies much more than the smaller companies given the it allowed the big companies to overwhelm the smaller companies with lower prices, faster deliveries, and more product.

In many ways, this is a positive overall but only for a very short time given that the smaller companies will be going out of business and leaving only the big companies in control. When that begins to happen, unemployment will go up as there will be less companies in business and the big companies being totally technically driven by computers and technology will not make up the difference in hiring people. In addition, it causes monopolies to be made, which in turn causes these big companies to get greedy and charge more for their products, knowing that their consumers will not be able to get the products elsewhere since those companies will be out of business.

This is perfectly shown in the FANG Index which is an index that was formed in June 2018 and represents the 10 most innovative and successful companies in the Tech Industry. This is clearly shown in the charts where the SPX has rallied 24% in the past 6 months whereas the FANG has rallied 52%. This means most of the money is going into these 10 big Tech companies.

Monopolies are never good for the economic health of a nation because greed takes over and everyone suffers from that.

I also want to mention that this FANG Index also shows in a tangential way that our nation economically is nowhere near as good most Trump supporters think it is. When most of the benefits of the Tax cut and of the growing economy is going into only 10 big companies and the rest of the smaller companies are going broke, it won't be long before everything breaks.

Another perfect example of how all of this is affecting our businesses, there are 2 agricultural companies that I recently bought shares in given that the trade war is over for now and agricultural companies should have been the beneficiaries of that. One of the companies is CVGW, which is the biggest avocado grower in the United States. Surprise, surprise but instead of these companies heading higher, these companies are making multi-month lows. Another stock that fortunately I am short on is BEN. BEN is an asset management company that provides its services to individuals, institutions, pension plans, trusts, and partnerships (not to the big companies) and this stock just today made a new 11-year low.

It is evident that this economy and this stock market is tailored to the few uber rich companies and that is not supposed to be the backbone of our country.
Click to expand...

An economy that seems too good to be true is too good to be true. Remember what happened in the other '20s? The 1920s?
 
There is another aggravating factor that could come into play and this has the potential to be very serious.

Coronavirus.

Now I am someone who from the beginning has cautioned people panicking over it, but as it’s virility seems relatively high and it’s death rate cemented as very concerning and it appears the Chinese Government perhaps doesn’t have a full grip on the situation given today’s revised estimates.

Should it continue to spread and go more international, let’s say we have a second major outbreak in another country India, Indonesia or Thailand, further air travel restrictions across the word could begin to have an effect on The Global Economy that is potentially massive, time will tell but I think it is officially time to worry about this thing.
 
Luckyone said:
Being an analyst in the stock market, I am constantly looking at what is happening economically to drive prices up.

It is definitely true that Trump (a Republican) getting elected and the subsequent Tax cut done in 2017 have helped companies be successful and therefore causing the stock market to rally to new all time highs.

Nonetheless, the one thing that everyone on this board is not aware of is that this stock market rally has been fed by the big companies and not the small ones. A few months ago, I stated that these new highs made were unique inasmuch as there were as many companies making new 52-week lows as companies making new 52-week highs. The reason for this is simple. The tax cut helped the rich companies much more than the smaller companies given the it allowed the big companies to overwhelm the smaller companies with lower prices, faster deliveries, and more product.

In many ways, this is a positive overall but only for a very short time given that the smaller companies will be going out of business and leaving only the big companies in control. When that begins to happen, unemployment will go up as there will be less companies in business and the big companies being totally technically driven by computers and technology will not make up the difference in hiring people. In addition, it causes monopolies to be made, which in turn causes these big companies to get greedy and charge more for their products, knowing that their consumers will not be able to get the products elsewhere since those companies will be out of business.

This is perfectly shown in the FANG Index which is an index that was formed in June 2018 and represents the 10 most innovative and successful companies in the Tech Industry. This is clearly shown in the charts where the SPX has rallied 24% in the past 6 months whereas the FANG has rallied 52%. This means most of the money is going into these 10 big Tech companies.

Monopolies are never good for the economic health of a nation because greed takes over and everyone suffers from that.

I also want to mention that this FANG Index also shows in a tangential way that our nation economically is nowhere near as good most Trump supporters think it is. When most of the benefits of the Tax cut and of the growing economy is going into only 10 big companies and the rest of the smaller companies are going broke, it won't be long before everything breaks.

Another perfect example of how all of this is affecting our businesses, there are 2 agricultural companies that I recently bought shares in given that the trade war is over for now and agricultural companies should have been the beneficiaries of that. One of the companies is CVGW, which is the biggest avocado grower in the United States. Surprise, surprise but instead of these companies heading higher, these companies are making multi-month lows. Another stock that fortunately I am short on is BEN. BEN is an asset management company that provides its services to individuals, institutions, pension plans, trusts, and partnerships (not to the big companies) and this stock just today made a new 11-year low.

It is evident that this economy and this stock market is tailored to the few uber rich companies and that is not supposed to be the backbone of our country.
Click to expand...

You mean like Amazon, Google, Apple and Microsoft. Definitely. Monopolies like those used to be illegal. Not any more. They are too big to be required to follow any laws - and they don't.
 
I would criticize Democrats somewhat for not doing better at educating the public about the points like the OP's.

An uninformed voter is susceptible to being misled and voting wrong.

I've picked on Bernie a bit for this; his very correct message is basically, 'inequality has denied the working class a fair share of healthcare, education wealth, he'll shift that to give them more'. But I don't seen him explaining such issues as are in the OP, things like how policies can take many years to show economic benefits.

So if Bernie is elected, and an economic crash happens in 2021 that he's not to blame for at all, little has been done to prevent voters from being convinced it was his fault, with Republicans loudly making that false claim.
 
Jetboogieman said:
There is another aggravating factor that could come into play and this has the potential to be very serious.

Coronavirus.

Now I am someone who from the beginning has cautioned people panicking over it, but as it’s virility seems relatively high and it’s death rate cemented as very concerning and it appears the Chinese Government perhaps doesn’t have a full grip on the situation given today’s revised estimates.

Should it continue to spread and go more international, let’s say we have a second major outbreak in another country India, Indonesia or Thailand, further air travel restrictions across the word could begin to have an effect on The Global Economy that is potentially massive, time will tell but I think it is officially time to worry about this thing.
Click to expand...

I agree with you that I've been feeling people should not overreact to the virus itself. But there is more happening as indirect effects that seems to threaten much bigger economic problems. I heard only 10% of Foxconn workers were showing up, that China's manufacturing had greatly slowed, and it threatens big effects globally. Because of that, the economic impact seems a bigger threat.
 
joko104 said:
You mean like Amazon, Google, Apple and Microsoft. Definitely. Monopolies like those used to be illegal. Not any more. They are too big to be required to follow any laws - and they don't.
Click to expand...

Didn't Trump remove many of the regulations that governed this type of growth?
 
Luckyone said:
Being an analyst in the stock market, I am constantly looking at what is happening economically to drive prices up.

It is definitely true that Trump (a Republican) getting elected and the subsequent Tax cut done in 2017 have helped companies be successful and therefore causing the stock market to rally to new all time highs.

Nonetheless, the one thing that everyone on this board is not aware of is that this stock market rally has been fed by the big companies and not the small ones. A few months ago, I stated that these new highs made were unique inasmuch as there were as many companies making new 52-week lows as companies making new 52-week highs. The reason for this is simple. The tax cut helped the rich companies much more than the smaller companies given the it allowed the big companies to overwhelm the smaller companies with lower prices, faster deliveries, and more product.

In many ways, this is a positive overall but only for a very short time given that the smaller companies will be going out of business and leaving only the big companies in control. When that begins to happen, unemployment will go up as there will be less companies in business and the big companies being totally technically driven by computers and technology will not make up the difference in hiring people. In addition, it causes monopolies to be made, which in turn causes these big companies to get greedy and charge more for their products, knowing that their consumers will not be able to get the products elsewhere since those companies will be out of business.

This is perfectly shown in the FANG Index which is an index that was formed in June 2018 and represents the 10 most innovative and successful companies in the Tech Industry. This is clearly shown in the charts where the SPX has rallied 24% in the past 6 months whereas the FANG has rallied 52%. This means most of the money is going into these 10 big Tech companies.

Monopolies are never good for the economic health of a nation because greed takes over and everyone suffers from that.

I also want to mention that this FANG Index also shows in a tangential way that our nation economically is nowhere near as good most Trump supporters think it is. When most of the benefits of the Tax cut and of the growing economy is going into only 10 big companies and the rest of the smaller companies are going broke, it won't be long before everything breaks.

Another perfect example of how all of this is affecting our businesses, there are 2 agricultural companies that I recently bought shares in given that the trade war is over for now and agricultural companies should have been the beneficiaries of that. One of the companies is CVGW, which is the biggest avocado grower in the United States. Surprise, surprise but instead of these companies heading higher, these companies are making multi-month lows. Another stock that fortunately I am short on is BEN. BEN is an asset management company that provides its services to individuals, institutions, pension plans, trusts, and partnerships (not to the big companies) and this stock just today made a new 11-year low.

It is evident that this economy and this stock market is tailored to the few uber rich companies and that is not supposed to be the backbone of our country.
Click to expand...

You "hope" it's about to end. Right?
 
apdst said:
You "hope" it's about to end. Right?
Click to expand...

You really need to help with your assumption problems. They make you look totally uninformed.

I am not in the "hope" camp. That is the camp where people that live in fantasy reside.

I am in the "be prepared" camp as I do not like surprises I am not prepared for. Evidently, you are not prepared and I have to tell you (from experience) that when something you are not prepared for happens, it messes you up totally, both emotionally and in every other way.

Take my advice and look for truth and fact as you cannot get away from them no matter what you believe. In my life, I have learned that few things are as they seem and almost always are exactly opposite to what you believe. Being prepared for those situations is a life saver. If they do not happen, nothing is lost.

I truly feel sorry for people like you that live in fantasy because the fall from fantasy is often so hard that it kills you or affects you for life. This applies not only to Trump but to everything around you (friends, work, family, etc). People are normally very successful in hiding their true motives (just like Trump does) and if you do not even consider that possibility, you will get beaten to an emotional pulp more often than not.

By the way, I don't believe you have anything to offer me (in the way of conversation) for future contact.
 
Luckyone said:
You really need to help with your assumption problems. They make you look totally uninformed.

I am not in the "hope" camp. That is the camp where people that live in fantasy reside.

I am in the "be prepared" camp as I do not like surprises I am not prepared for. Evidently, you are not prepared and I have to tell you (from experience) that when something you are not prepared for happens, it messes you up totally, both emotionally and in every other way.

Take my advice and look for truth and fact as you cannot get away from them no matter what you believe. In my life, I have learned that few things are as they seem and almost always are exactly opposite to what you believe. Being prepared for those situations is a life saver. If they do not happen, nothing is lost.

I truly feel sorry for people like you that live in fantasy because the fall from fantasy is often so hard that it kills you or affects you for life. This applies not only to Trump but to everything around you (friends, work, family, etc). People are normally very successful in hiding their true motives (just like Trump does) and if you do not even consider that possibility, you will get beaten to an emotional pulp more often than not.

By the way, I don't believe you have anything to offer me (in the way of conversation) for future contact.
Click to expand...

Bull****! You're praying for an economic meltdown.
 
apdst said:
Bull****! You're praying for an economic meltdown.
Click to expand...

There is a huge difference from "praying" to "expecting".

Keep in mind that I have been a stock market analyst for 44 years and have been through 2 economic meltdown and I know the symptoms. I see them now. Not to say that it will happen this week, next month, or even before Trump leaves office but that an economic meltdown is to occur, there is no doubt. What Trump has done while in office almost guarantees it.

By the way, this is the difference between you and I. I read information while you don't.

More than 70% of economists think a US recession will strike by the end of 2021
Click to expand...

For your information, these economists are not politicians hoping to get Trump out of office. They are, like me, people that look at facts (contrary to what you do) and evaluate them.

You are a lost soul. I do pity you.
 
Luckyone said:
For your information, these economists are not politicians hoping to get Trump out of office. They are, like me, people that look at facts (contrary to what you do) and evaluate them.
Click to expand...

You didn't say it, but I assume you'd agree it's an unfortunate problem that low-information people, if the crash happens in the months after a new Democratic president takes office, would blame the new president, not trump. That's one way I feel sorry for the next president, if that happens. Remember how that went for Carter, even though he appointed Pal Volcker who fixed the problem; Reagan got the credit.
 
Craig234 said:
You didn't say it, but I assume you'd agree it's an unfortunate problem that low-information people, if the crash happens in the months after a new Democratic president takes office, would blame the new president, not trump. That's one way I feel sorry for the next president, if that happens. Remember how that went for Carter, even though he appointed Pal Volcker who fixed the problem; Reagan got the credit.
Click to expand...

Yes, that is exactly what will happen. Just like they did not give credit to Obama for helping pull us out of a depression and now Trump getting the credit for simply extending what Obama started, Republicans will blame the next Democratic president for the now (during and because of the Trump administration) expected 2021 recession.

Alas, it is the same thing that happens all the time when politics are involved. Truth goes out the window in favor of political advantage. It never changes.

Just like Trump promising to drain the swamp but actually bringing more swamp creatures in. Swamp is now huge under Trump.
 
Luckyone said:
Being an analyst in the stock market, I am constantly looking at what is happening economically to drive prices up.

It is definitely true that Trump (a Republican) getting elected and the subsequent Tax cut done in 2017 have helped companies be successful and therefore causing the stock market to rally to new all time highs.

Nonetheless, the one thing that everyone on this board is not aware of is that this stock market rally has been fed by the big companies and not the small ones. A few months ago, I stated that these new highs made were unique inasmuch as there were as many companies making new 52-week lows as companies making new 52-week highs. The reason for this is simple. The tax cut helped the rich companies much more than the smaller companies given the it allowed the big companies to overwhelm the smaller companies with lower prices, faster deliveries, and more product.

In many ways, this is a positive overall but only for a very short time given that the smaller companies will be going out of business and leaving only the big companies in control. When that begins to happen, unemployment will go up as there will be less companies in business and the big companies being totally technically driven by computers and technology will not make up the difference in hiring people. In addition, it causes monopolies to be made, which in turn causes these big companies to get greedy and charge more for their products, knowing that their consumers will not be able to get the products elsewhere since those companies will be out of business.

This is perfectly shown in the FANG Index which is an index that was formed in June 2018 and represents the 10 most innovative and successful companies in the Tech Industry. This is clearly shown in the charts where the SPX has rallied 24% in the past 6 months whereas the FANG has rallied 52%. This means most of the money is going into these 10 big Tech companies.

Monopolies are never good for the economic health of a nation because greed takes over and everyone suffers from that.

I also want to mention that this FANG Index also shows in a tangential way that our nation economically is nowhere near as good most Trump supporters think it is. When most of the benefits of the Tax cut and of the growing economy is going into only 10 big companies and the rest of the smaller companies are going broke, it won't be long before everything breaks.

Another perfect example of how all of this is affecting our businesses, there are 2 agricultural companies that I recently bought shares in given that the trade war is over for now and agricultural companies should have been the beneficiaries of that. One of the companies is CVGW, which is the biggest avocado grower in the United States. Surprise, surprise but instead of these companies heading higher, these companies are making multi-month lows. Another stock that fortunately I am short on is BEN. BEN is an asset management company that provides its services to individuals, institutions, pension plans, trusts, and partnerships (not to the big companies) and this stock just today made a new 11-year low.

It is evident that this economy and this stock market is tailored to the few uber rich companies and that is not supposed to be the backbone of our country.
Click to expand...

Interesting reading, Lucky. Thanks.
 
Luckyone said:
Being an analyst in the stock market, I am constantly looking at what is happening economically to drive prices up.

It is definitely true that Trump (a Republican) getting elected and the subsequent Tax cut done in 2017 have helped companies be successful and therefore causing the stock market to rally to new all time highs.

Nonetheless, the one thing that everyone on this board is not aware of is that this stock market rally has been fed by the big companies and not the small ones. A few months ago, I stated that these new highs made were unique inasmuch as there were as many companies making new 52-week lows as companies making new 52-week highs. The reason for this is simple. The tax cut helped the rich companies much more than the smaller companies given the it allowed the big companies to overwhelm the smaller companies with lower prices, faster deliveries, and more product.

In many ways, this is a positive overall but only for a very short time given that the smaller companies will be going out of business and leaving only the big companies in control. When that begins to happen, unemployment will go up as there will be less companies in business and the big companies being totally technically driven by computers and technology will not make up the difference in hiring people. In addition, it causes monopolies to be made, which in turn causes these big companies to get greedy and charge more for their products, knowing that their consumers will not be able to get the products elsewhere since those companies will be out of business.

This is perfectly shown in the FANG Index which is an index that was formed in June 2018 and represents the 10 most innovative and successful companies in the Tech Industry. This is clearly shown in the charts where the SPX has rallied 24% in the past 6 months whereas the FANG has rallied 52%. This means most of the money is going into these 10 big Tech companies.

Monopolies are never good for the economic health of a nation because greed takes over and everyone suffers from that.

I also want to mention that this FANG Index also shows in a tangential way that our nation economically is nowhere near as good most Trump supporters think it is. When most of the benefits of the Tax cut and of the growing economy is going into only 10 big companies and the rest of the smaller companies are going broke, it won't be long before everything breaks.

Another perfect example of how all of this is affecting our businesses, there are 2 agricultural companies that I recently bought shares in given that the trade war is over for now and agricultural companies should have been the beneficiaries of that. One of the companies is CVGW, which is the biggest avocado grower in the United States. Surprise, surprise but instead of these companies heading higher, these companies are making multi-month lows. Another stock that fortunately I am short on is BEN. BEN is an asset management company that provides its services to individuals, institutions, pension plans, trusts, and partnerships (not to the big companies) and this stock just today made a new 11-year low.

It is evident that this economy and this stock market is tailored to the few uber rich companies and that is not supposed to be the backbone of our country.
Click to expand...

Luckyone:

Well described but this has been the state of affairs in US equity markets for about 20-40 years now.

Conglomerate consolidation of markets into oligopolies, monopolistic competition markets and defacto monopolies is hardly news.

This is a function of the transition of the US economy. It has changed from a productive economy (where economic and political influence/power was in the hands of powerful industrial, commercial and financial interests) into a speculative and services economy (where the most powerful financiers have concentrated what was once more dispersed economic and political power/influence into their very few hands).

That shift has changed stock and other equity markets from productive pools for venture capital into speculative engines removed from productivity, which attempt to either manage or remove all sources of competition or resistance to the primacy of speculation. Thus bond markets have been dried up, banks have had fractional reserves lowered to expand the money supply, monetary policy has been hobbled by ridiculously low interest rates, and more and more capital is being pumped into speculative markets at greater and greater risk. 2007-8 showed us what dangers this speculative super-engine presents to the vestiges of the real economy, but the power of those who most benefit from the speculative engine prevents meaningful long-term change or reform to buffer us from periodic speculative implosions which start locally but radiate quickly to deep, global crises.

Cheers.
Evilroddy..
 
I am in the 'be prepared' camp.

We did quite well from the Great Recession because we were prepared.

We are prepared now.

I 'hope' a major recession is a long way off, but I am not so sure that is the case.
 
Luckyone said:
Being an analyst in the stock market, I am constantly looking at what is happening economically to drive prices up.

It is definitely true that Trump (a Republican) getting elected and the subsequent Tax cut done in 2017 have helped companies be successful and therefore causing the stock market to rally to new all time highs.

Nonetheless, the one thing that everyone on this board is not aware of is that this stock market rally has been fed by the big companies and not the small ones. A few months ago, I stated that these new highs made were unique inasmuch as there were as many companies making new 52-week lows as companies making new 52-week highs. The reason for this is simple. The tax cut helped the rich companies much more than the smaller companies given the it allowed the big companies to overwhelm the smaller companies with lower prices, faster deliveries, and more product.

In many ways, this is a positive overall but only for a very short time given that the smaller companies will be going out of business and leaving only the big companies in control. When that begins to happen, unemployment will go up as there will be less companies in business and the big companies being totally technically driven by computers and technology will not make up the difference in hiring people. In addition, it causes monopolies to be made, which in turn causes these big companies to get greedy and charge more for their products, knowing that their consumers will not be able to get the products elsewhere since those companies will be out of business.

This is perfectly shown in the FANG Index which is an index that was formed in June 2018 and represents the 10 most innovative and successful companies in the Tech Industry. This is clearly shown in the charts where the SPX has rallied 24% in the past 6 months whereas the FANG has rallied 52%. This means most of the money is going into these 10 big Tech companies.

Monopolies are never good for the economic health of a nation because greed takes over and everyone suffers from that.

I also want to mention that this FANG Index also shows in a tangential way that our nation economically is nowhere near as good most Trump supporters think it is. When most of the benefits of the Tax cut and of the growing economy is going into only 10 big companies and the rest of the smaller companies are going broke, it won't be long before everything breaks.

Another perfect example of how all of this is affecting our businesses, there are 2 agricultural companies that I recently bought shares in given that the trade war is over for now and agricultural companies should have been the beneficiaries of that. One of the companies is CVGW, which is the biggest avocado grower in the United States. Surprise, surprise but instead of these companies heading higher, these companies are making multi-month lows. Another stock that fortunately I am short on is BEN. BEN is an asset management company that provides its services to individuals, institutions, pension plans, trusts, and partnerships (not to the big companies) and this stock just today made a new 11-year low.

It is evident that this economy and this stock market is tailored to the few uber rich companies and that is not supposed to be the backbone of our country.
Click to expand...

Thank you for this very interesting post.

Question: when do you think the uptrend will end? Do you have a metric to guess?

I am a corporate accountant, and have some knowledge of the markets but not as much as you. For me, it was very easy to understand that the stock market is soaring because of the tax cuts, and because of stock buy backs. I interpret this as stocks being overvalued, inflated, and a bubble. The market is not reflecting actual economic growth or NOI growth. The stock market is just inflated.

I am very irritated the Trump and the rest of America seem so confused, because the stock market is not the economy.
 
Craig234 said:
So if Bernie is elected, and an economic crash happens in 2021 that he's not to blame for at all, little has been done to prevent voters from being convinced it was his fault, with Republicans loudly making that false claim.
Click to expand...

I agree. The last time we had a huge economic recession, they bailed out the banks and large companies. I don't think that would be Bernie's style. I am hoping having a Democrat in office during the next recession, could actually be a better situation.

This conversation is why I laugh when Trump and his supporters try to tie middle class 401Ks into this conversation. Trump and his administration would probably bail out the largest companies on the stock exchange, but they will not bailout our 401Ks.
 
SheWolf said:
Thank you for this very interesting post.

Question: when do you think the uptrend will end? Do you have a metric to guess?

I am a corporate accountant, and have some knowledge of the markets but not as much as you. For me, it was very easy to understand that the stock market is soaring because of the tax cuts, and because of stock buy backs. I interpret this as stocks being overvalued, inflated, and a bubble. The market is not reflecting actual economic growth or NOI growth. The stock market is just inflated.

I am very irritated the Trump and the rest of America seem so confused, because the stock market is not the economy.
Click to expand...

One thing I can say with some certainty and that is that the end is near. In 1998 the Dot.com run started and it took 13 months from the first decent correction to the top when the NASDAQ went from 1357 to 5132 (3775 points). This last run from the last correction of consequence is now in its 15th month and the same kind of action (runaway freight train) is being seen now as was seen in 1999 so it could be any time now. The index has rallied 3558 points from the last correction of consequence.

In 1999 the top came with a key reversal on the monthly chart, meaning a new all-time high was made during the month but at the end of the month the index closed red. This month already the NASDAQ has made a new all-time high and last month's close was 9150, meaning that on Friday February 28 the index closes below 9150, the indexes will have a key reversal and likely in a major downturn. If that does not happen this month, then next month new highs will again be made and whatever price the index closes this month, if new highs are made, a red monthly close will be the signal.

I do believe by the action being seen the last 16 weeks, that the top is close but more than that I cannot tell you at this time.

It once again should be mentioned that one of the big hedge companies did bet $1 billion dollars that this would happen by March of this year so take that into consideration.

Good Luck
 
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Luckyone said:
One thing I can say with some certainty and that is that the end is near. In 1998 the Dot.com run started and it took 13 months from the first decent correction to the top when the NASDAQ went from 1357 to 5132 (3775 points). This last run from the last correction of consequence is now in its 15th month and the same kind of action (runaway freight train) is being seen now as was seen in 1999 so it could be any time now. The index has rallied 3558 points from the last correction of consequence.

In 1999 the top came with a key reversal on the monthly chart, meaning a new all-time high was made during the month but at the end of the month the index closed red. This month already the NASDAQ has made a new all-time high and last month's close was 9150, meaning that on Friday February 28 the index closes below 9150, the indexes will have a key reversal and likely in a major downturn. If that does not happen this month, then next month new highs will again be made and whatever price the index closes this month, if new highs are made, a red monthly close will be the signal.

I do believe by the action being seen the last 16 weeks, that the top is close but more than that I cannot tell you at this time.

It once again should be mentioned that one of the big hedge companies did bet $1 billion dollars that this would happen by March of this year so take that into consideration.

Good Luck
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Very interesting. Many of us have noticed the market is very volatile. In your opinion, why is that happening? Is it another sign of a recession? Is the market trying to correct from being overvalued?
 
Luckyone said:
One thing I can say with some certainty and that is that the end is near. In 1998 the Dot.com run started and it took 13 months from the first decent correction to the top when the NASDAQ went from 1357 to 5132 (3775 points). This last run from the last correction of consequence is now in its 15th month and the same kind of action (runaway freight train) is being seen now as was seen in 1999 so it could be any time now. The index has rallied 3558 points from the last correction of consequence.

In 1999 the top came with a key reversal on the monthly chart, meaning a new all-time high was made during the month but at the end of the month the index closed red. This month already the NASDAQ has made a new all-time high and last month's close was 9150, meaning that on Friday February 28 the index closes below 9150, the indexes will have a key reversal and likely in a major downturn. If that does not happen this month, then next month new highs will again be made and whatever price the index closes this month, if new highs are made, a red monthly close will be the signal.

I do believe by the action being seen the last 16 weeks, that the top is close but more than that I cannot tell you at this time.

It once again should be mentioned that one of the big hedge companies did bet $1 billion dollars that this would happen by March of this year so take that into consideration.

Good Luck
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So I guess the big risk person could sell off and buy short options on the market:) Lose it all, or make a fortune... (not recommended)

Reminds me of the story of that guy on Wall Street convinced about the coming 2008 crash. Bet his money, borrowed from friends and family, shorted... and lost it all. Still convinced, he did it again somehow raising even more money - and then became a bit of a legend when he made a fortune (billion(s)?)
 
Luckyone said:
Being an analyst in the stock market, I am constantly looking at what is happening economically to drive prices up.

It is definitely true that Trump (a Republican) getting elected and the subsequent Tax cut done in 2017 have helped companies be successful and therefore causing the stock market to rally to new all time highs.

Nonetheless, the one thing that everyone on this board is not aware of is that this stock market rally has been fed by the big companies and not the small ones. A few months ago, I stated that these new highs made were unique inasmuch as there were as many companies making new 52-week lows as companies making new 52-week highs. The reason for this is simple. The tax cut helped the rich companies much more than the smaller companies given the it allowed the big companies to overwhelm the smaller companies with lower prices, faster deliveries, and more product.

In many ways, this is a positive overall but only for a very short time given that the smaller companies will be going out of business and leaving only the big companies in control. When that begins to happen, unemployment will go up as there will be less companies in business and the big companies being totally technically driven by computers and technology will not make up the difference in hiring people. In addition, it causes monopolies to be made, which in turn causes these big companies to get greedy and charge more for their products, knowing that their consumers will not be able to get the products elsewhere since those companies will be out of business.

This is perfectly shown in the FANG Index which is an index that was formed in June 2018 and represents the 10 most innovative and successful companies in the Tech Industry. This is clearly shown in the charts where the SPX has rallied 24% in the past 6 months whereas the FANG has rallied 52%. This means most of the money is going into these 10 big Tech companies.

Monopolies are never good for the economic health of a nation because greed takes over and everyone suffers from that.

I also want to mention that this FANG Index also shows in a tangential way that our nation economically is nowhere near as good most Trump supporters think it is. When most of the benefits of the Tax cut and of the growing economy is going into only 10 big companies and the rest of the smaller companies are going broke, it won't be long before everything breaks.

Another perfect example of how all of this is affecting our businesses, there are 2 agricultural companies that I recently bought shares in given that the trade war is over for now and agricultural companies should have been the beneficiaries of that. One of the companies is CVGW, which is the biggest avocado grower in the United States. Surprise, surprise but instead of these companies heading higher, these companies are making multi-month lows. Another stock that fortunately I am short on is BEN. BEN is an asset management company that provides its services to individuals, institutions, pension plans, trusts, and partnerships (not to the big companies) and this stock just today made a new 11-year low.

It is evident that this economy and this stock market is tailored to the few uber rich companies and that is not supposed to be the backbone of our country.
Click to expand...

'Boom-bust' cycle. While conservatives are wallowing in ignorance and smugly assuming they are looking forward to endless prosperity, history should have informed them that after every period of 'boom', comes the inevitable 'bust'. It will happen; it always does, sure as the sun rises in the east.

Cycles of History, Boom and Bust | Financial Sense
 
snakestretcher said:
'Boom-bust' cycle. While conservatives are wallowing in ignorance and smugly assuming they are looking forward to endless prosperity, history should have informed them that after every period of 'boom', comes the inevitable 'bust'. It will happen; it always does, sure as the sun rises in the east.
Click to expand...

And yet, banking system crashes that had happened every 10-15 years in the country's history, ended with FDR's banking reforms, giving the country stable banking for 50 years until Reagan began rolling them back and we had the S&L crisis.
 
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