New Hampshire Primary Thread

[GreatNews2night]

Once Buttigieg or Klobuchar drop out, Bernie's toast.

Huh, what? If Buttigieg and Klobuchar drop out (and why should they? they are doing pretty well), who would be left to toast Bernie? Biden? Warren? They are both imploding.

 

[joko104]

The Democratic Party shifted to proportional allocation of delegates to give the Democratic Party the final decision. If Sanders does not come out of Super Tuesday with at least 40% of the delegates avoiding a brokered convention becomes very unlikely.

Remember, 16% of the delegates are super delegates. So Sanders needs at least 50% of delegates out of 84% of the delegates.

Summary: Sanders will not be the Democratic Party's nominee. But he only has 3 houses and one $100,000+ German 2 seater 10 cylinder gasoline powered car. He should be able to broker his delegates for at least one more house and a Ferrari.

 

[beancounter]

Trump broke all records in New Hampshire. He received 110,717 votes compared to Obama in 2012 who got 49,080 votes. Or Bush in 2004 who got 52,962 Or Clinton in 2004 with 76,967 votes. IN A primary on a blustery cold night where the outcome was already certain.

Blustery and cold? Where do you live Arizona? Yesterday was a fairly mild day. I was wearing my light jacket.

Absolute numbers may be larger, but percentages tell the story.

 

[HumblePi]

Bernie is catching fire with the poor and ignorant proletariat with his message of condemnation for Trump and the deplorable conditions Trump has supposedly brought onto America. Comrade communists have to be pretty stupid to believe that crap.

Kind of feel that way about your posts with some nonsense mixed in.

Don't you just think it's funny how people like 'marke' will try to make the left out to be 'communists' when they don't have any idea what communism is. And any claim that democrats are, is absurd. Democrats are a center-center-left capitalist party that are sometimes progressive on social issues. Democrats have never advocated, and are not likely in the near future to start advocating, anything that resembles socialism, let alone communism. No, single payer healthcare is not socialism no matter how much they try to make it out to be so. Socialism entails public ownership of the means of production, which single payer is not. By making this claim shows that he has no idea what communism (or socialism) is or, he's just trolling.

 

[GreatNews2night]

2020 ELECTION
February 12, 2020 7:08 AM[h=2]Sanders Is The Front-Runner After New Hampshire, And A Contested Convention Has Become More Likely[/h]By Nate Silver

Wow, 33% chance of a contested convention! It did go up sharply from Nate's previous projections.

 

[GreatNews2night]

The Democratic Party shifted to proportional allocation of delegates to give the Democratic Party the final decision. If Sanders does not come out of Super Tuesday with at least 40% of the delegates avoiding a brokered convention becomes very unlikely.

Well, the DNC also abolished superdelegates in the first ballot, so, if they were this interested in doing what you're saying, why in the hell did they curtail superdelegate power?

Remember, 16% of the delegates are super delegates. So Sanders needs at least 50% of delegates out of 84% of the delegates.

For a change, you made a good point. Isn't it amazing how a broken clock can show the right time twice a day?

Summary: Sanders will not be the Democratic Party's nominee. But he only has 3 houses and one $100,000+ German 2 seater 10 cylinder gasoline powered car. He should be able to broker his delegates for at least one more house and a Ferrari.

Oops, the time moved past the broken clock so you reverted to another silly statement.

 

[marke]

Don't you just think it's funny how people like 'marke' will try to make the left out to be 'communists' when they don't have any idea what communism is. And any claim that democrats are, is absurd. Democrats are a center-center-left capitalist party that are sometimes progressive on social issues. Democrats have never advocated, and are not likely in the near future to start advocating, anything that resembles socialism, let alone communism. No, single payer healthcare is not socialism no matter how much they try to make it out to be so. Socialism entails public ownership of the means of production, which single payer is not. By making this claim shows that he has no idea what communism (or socialism) is or, he's just trolling.

Whatever you want to call Bernie's brand of communism, Bernie himself says it is nothing like what Trump is currently doing to make America great again right now.

 

[Jay59]

You can't be serious. Race relations good??? Where were you when Trump was lending support to white supremacy groups in Charlottesville? And sure, Hispanics and Muslims are not races (although sort of related, because many in these categories are brown) but don't you see that he foments hatred against this ethnic group and this religion? Haven't you noticed that the overwhelming majority of MAGA hat types are white? Why is it, since his economy benefits people of color too? Could it be because people of color are not exactly welcome among his supporters? Certainly not all Trump supporters are racist but mostly almost all racists are Trump supporters.

Economy, employment, sure, I'll give you that, and it is a huge factor counting for him as the incumbent. But make no mistake, Trump thrives in xenophobia, religious discrimination, and racism. It's what motivates a huge chunk of his base, and there is no denying it.

You may say, no, it's not race, it's being against illegal immigration (and I'm against illegal immigration too), but frankly, I doubt that it is just that. Somehow I doubt that Trump himself (given his marital history) and his followers would mind if they saw a very white, very pretty Eastern European female violating her tourist visa by overstaying it and accepting paid work as a model, for example, thus becoming an illegal alien. I think his followers mind the presence of brown illegal aliens, not white ones. While it is true that brown illegal aliens are predominant, the white kind exists too; there are Eastern Europeans and even Western Europeans and Canadians here who are overstaying their visas and obtaining illegal employment. We don't see this situation being combated with the same vigor.

And that's the same with Muslims. Sure, there is a side of it that is a preoccupation with national security, but he hasn't failed to berate Muslims who were born here, lived all their lives here, and have no ties to terrorism whatsoever, up to and including berating US Congresswomen basically telling them to "go back to where you came from" while that place where they came from is the United States of America.

Race relations good under president Trump? LOL, funny joke. Tell us another one; laughing is good. :lol:

Empty blather, as usual.

What he said.

 

[woodsman]

Huh, what? If Buttigieg and Klobuchar drop out (and why should they? they are doing pretty well), who would be left to toast Bernie? Biden? Warren? They are both imploding.

Sanders should be concerned, keep in mind, the other two in the top three are running as moderates and did pretty well. Warren, the other socialist/progressive is all but done so that tells me the voters would prefer a moderate candidate. All the democrats should be mindful of Trumps numbers in NH. Enthusiasm is there and a sleeping giant of voters could cause a landslide win. For an incumbent his numbers last night even surprised me. The MSM and the DNC which are intwined with talking points are in a tough spot. They despise Sanders but know the others in the lineup stand a very slim chance of winning against Trump.

It’s starting to look as though the DNC is in a no win scenario. Yes, they could play games with the rules of the convention to hamstring Sanders but run the risk of millions of voters staying home on election day out of protest or disgust. If they start supporting him they also run the risk of millions of voters staying home not wanting to vote for the socialist platform.

The one wild card is Bloomberg, I don’t completely understand his strategy other than predicting the implosion of the current line up. It will be a make it or break it moment for Bloomberg on super Tuesday with 14 states in play. We will then see if the shock and awe money dump wins the first real battle.

 

[Jay59]

My goodness what's with the hate labeling? Projecting perhaps? I responded truthfully to your opinion with facts and I'm a hater? I think we know who the blind follower is.

Yes we do and you probably shaved him this morning. But you did not like that, and the alternative is blind hatred.

Either because you do not look for yourself, or because you cannot accept what you see, the the point is blind.

 

[Moderate Right]

No it just means the field is bigger in 2020.

NEXT!

The field really wasn't that much smaller in 2016 in New Hampshire. This is Bernie's neighboring state, which he trounced to victory in even against Hillary in 2016 while this year he just barely eeked out a victory. I don't think people are paying enough attention to this fact.

 

[JMR]

In other words, since you think Trump is a liar, you get to lie too. That may give you some comfort, but what it really does is just make you a liar.

Actually you haven't shown what I said was a lie.

 

[Moderate Right]

He pounds everyone... you mean, ONE person in 2016? This time he beat 8 people.

This is Bernie's neighboring state which he trounced to victory in against the the leader of the party and a few others, and yet this year the best he could do in his neighboring state is to barely eek out a victory.

 

[jnug]

Sanders should be concerned, keep in mind, the other two in the top three are running as moderates and did pretty well. Warren, the other socialist/progressive is all but done so that tells me the voters would prefer a moderate candidate. All the democrats should be mindful of Trumps numbers in NH. Enthusiasm is there and a sleeping giant of voters could cause a landslide win. For an incumbent his numbers last night even surprised me. The MSM and the DNC which are intwined with talking points are in a tough spot. They despise Sanders but know the others in the lineup stand a very slim chance of winning against Trump.

It’s starting to look as though the DNC is in a no win scenario. Yes, they could play games with the rules of the convention to hamstring Sanders but run the risk of millions of voters staying home on election day out of protest or disgust. If they start supporting him they also run the risk of millions of voters staying home not wanting to vote for the socialist platform.

The one wild card is Bloomberg, I don’t completely understand his strategy other than predicting the implosion of the current line up. It will be a make it or break it moment for Bloomberg on super Tuesday with 14 states in play. We will then see if the shock and awe money dump wins the first real battle.

At some point I expect the Dems to take on Bernie's fantasy platform. Its not even hard! They just have to decide that allowing Bernie to just wallow in fantasy all the way to the nomination is not to bright.

 

[AlphaOmega]

I can't believe Biden calling his female supporter a "lying dog faced pony soldier" didn't play well in the voting booths in NH.

 

[MovingPictures]

Huh, what? If Buttigieg and Klobuchar drop out (and why should they? they are doing pretty well), who would be left to toast Bernie? Biden? Warren? They are both imploding.

He means that in theory, when one drops out the other is going to gain their supporters.

Biden and Warren are done. Biden might come back and win SC or a south-east state or two, but that's about it. He won't be competitive anywhere else. Buttigieg and Klobuchar will have far better numbers in progressive states, and be extremely competitive in the more liberal ones.

I can totally see a brokered convention, where Sanders gets 35% of the vote, one centrist gets 35%, and the rest being split between Biden and somebody else.

 

[OrphanSlug]

This is my biggest takeaway:

In 2016 Bernie won NH with 60.4% of the vote. In 2020 Bernie won New Hampshire with 25.7% of the vote. To me that spells big trouble for Bernie.

It shows how ideologically fractured the party is now.

In 2016 the whole primary, despite the number of people running then too, was all about the aristocracy and pure arrogance of Hillary against a new take on modern liberalism from the economic class warfare king in Sanders.

Today though, we have various splinters of liberalism today encompassing everything from moderates to "democratic socialism" (i.e. dump individual rights and gang up on whoever or whatever political target of the day is) and you end up with 4 to 5 front runners who all are going to have their challenges uniting a group determined to find new evolutions of inter-party divisions.

Something else I was thinking about today, we have others taking the bait and showcasing that division. Sanders pretty much entered the campaign starting on that tone as he usually does but now we are seeing Biden and Warren take the bait and do the same, each to varying levels of poor performance in the primaries so far. Biden can try to force-feed himself to the minority vote all he wants but I have concerns on that becoming yet another division played out right up to the convention.

There is that outside chance that super Tuesday will make a bigger mess of things between Sanders, Buttigieg, Biden and perhaps Klobuchar but I am seeing Warren as already becoming a nonviable candidate. Between the race to furthest left and the moderates making their mark we are seeing why the path to the 2020 convention suggests more onus on the DNC to resort to insider party moves and shenanigans, as they are known to do.

 

[Moderate Right]

It shows how ideologically fractured the party is now.

In 2016 the whole primary, despite the number of people running then too, was all about the aristocracy and pure arrogance of Hillary against a new take on modern liberalism from the economic class warfare king in Sanders.

Today though, we have various splinters of liberalism today encompassing everything from moderates to "democratic socialism" (i.e. dump individual rights and gang up on whoever or whatever political target of the day is) and you end up with 4 to 5 front runners who all are going to have their challenges uniting a group determined to find new evolutions of inter-party divisions.

Something else I was thinking about today, we have others taking the bait and showcasing that division. Sanders pretty much entered the campaign starting on that tone as he usually does but now we are seeing Biden and Warren take the bait and do the same, each to varying levels of poor performance in the primaries so far. Biden can try to force-feed himself to the minority vote all he wants but I have concerns on that becoming yet another division played out right up to the convention.

There is that outside chance that super Tuesday will make a bigger mess of things between Sanders, Buttigieg, Biden and perhaps Klobuchar but I am seeing Warren as already becoming a nonviable candidate. Between the race to furthest left and the moderates making their mark we are seeing why the path to the 2020 convention suggests more onus on the DNC to resort to insider party moves and shenanigans, as they are known to do.

This may very well by a convention where no one has amassed the delegates needed.

 

[Hypothetical]

This may very well by a convention where no one has amassed the delegates needed.

they very well may have a brokered convention. that should be fun.

 

[pilot16]

Notice the smears have already started with the bernie bros towards a Senator that actually gets things done in DC. It’s all they know and it’s why we have trump.

My thing though is Ds cant have three or four centrists competing against Bernie and expect to win. He is like Trump in that he has a definitive floor but a ceiling as well. If the frontrunners keep switching back and forth as we hit Super Tuesday, and then throw in Bloomberg, that splits the moderates 4 ways. I cant see how unless two drop out, that 4 beat 1?

 

[poweRob]

Black Americans approval rating for Trump at 42%.

Black men polled voting for Trump : 35%

You're cooked.

Citation please.

 

[OrphanSlug]

This may very well by a convention where no one has amassed the delegates needed.

Possible, there could be 3 or 4 hopefuls left standing by the convention.

Unlikely but possible.

 

[poweRob]

Black Americans approval rating for Trump at 42%.

Black men polled voting for Trump : 35%

You're cooked.

One thing I noticed that seems to have been overlooked is that Trump received 85 percent support from members of his own party. That's a sizeable majority of course, but you would expect a popular incumbant to get 98+ percent.

I believe this demonstrates eroding support for him.

And no one knows Trump's competitor which means all of that 12% is anti trump within his own party.

 

[Linc]

My thing though is Ds cant have three or four centrists competing against Bernie and expect to win. He is like Trump in that he has a definitive floor but a ceiling as well. If the frontrunners keep switching back and forth as we hit Super Tuesday, and then throw in Bloomberg, that splits the moderates 4 ways. I cant see how unless two drop out, that 4 beat 1?

Just saw Sen. Sherrod (#Dignity of Work) Brown on CNN correctly chastising and trashing the GOPutins (my wording) in the Senate. Sherrod is the sweet spot between the two wings of the Democratic Party IF no candidate has a MAJORITY of delegates.

repubs think an open convention is to their advantage. I believe they couldn’t be more wrong. Imagine the sheer excitement surrounding an OC, as well as so many folks tuning in to see the sheer difference between the fascist trump party and the Democratic Party.

 

[poweRob]

Trump broke all records in New Hampshire. He received 110,717 votes compared to Obama in 2012 who got 49,080 votes. Or Bush in 2004 who got 52,962 Or Clinton in 2004 with 76,967 votes. IN A primary on a blustery cold night where the outcome was already certain.

Hillary got 112,000 in NH in 2008.

2008 New Hampshire Democratic primary - Wikipedia


Broke all the records...

:lol: