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Fed study finds Trump tariffs backfired

Simpletruther said:
I didn’t like the tariffs to start with. But after considering some more, I think it’s a good more to force at least some supply chain diversity away from China. And your own post proves the cost with be minimal, and may turn out to be a long term gain at least strategically, and perhaps economically if it forces China to tighten the belt to compete with emerging Asian producers.
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And what outcome would you expect from China "tightening its belt"? I would expect NOTHING. If Xi tells them to tighten their belts, they will just tighten their belts and that will be that.

You are talking about a country that sustained 20 million WWII deaths and then heaped another 20 million atop that as a policy objective! This is a country with a population that is totally fine with a citizen merit system AND reporting citizens themselves as part of it.

You are dreaming.

There are things we can do that stand a chance of being effective vis-a-vis China. None of what Trump has been doing and that he might try given his limited understanding stands a chance. Just the way it is.

We need to make structural changes here that will be to China's detriment and help us long term. But none of those changes are changes that Trump is interested in at all. There are things we can do Internationally that would impact China. But Trump has no interest in those either.
 
jnug said:
And what outcome would you expect from China "tightening its belt"? I would expect NOTHING. If Xi tells them to tighten their belts, they will just tighten their belts and that will be that.

You are talking about a country that sustained 20 million WWII deaths and then heaped another 20 million atop that as a policy objective! This is a country with a population that is totally fine with a citizen merit system AND reporting citizens themselves as part of it.

You are dreaming.

There are things we can do that stand a chance of being effective vis-a-vis China. None of what Trump has been doing and that he might try given his limited understanding stands a chance. Just the way it is.

We need to make structural changes here that will be to China's detriment and help us long term. But none of those changes are changes that Trump is interested in at all. There are things we can do Internationally that would impact China. But Trump has no interest in those either.
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Um, so tightening their belt will benefit us, not sure what your point is.
 
Simpletruther said:
Um, so tightening their belt will benefit us, not sure what your point is.
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Nope, not a bit IMO and you could have easily derived that from what I posted.
 
Factoid. The Administration has, during the trade war with China, given more money to affected farmers than the previous administration provided to the auto companies.

And so it goes.
 
It is funny that the Republicans gave a man, who can't get a loan from a U.S. bank and had to get $$$$ help from the federal government via federal bankruptcy protection (which screwed his vendors) the keys to our country's financial future and the first thing he did (along with a R Congress) is give himself a permanent massive tax cut and now he's exploding our deficit while putting farmers on welfare.

Idiots.
 
CaughtInThe said:
It is funny that the Republicans gave a man, who can't get a loan from a U.S. bank and had to get $$$$ help from the federal government via federal bankruptcy protection (which screwed his vendors) the keys to our country's financial future and the first thing he did (along with a R Congress) is give himself a permanent massive tax cut and now he's exploding our deficit while putting farmers on welfare.

Idiots.
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And power mad loony birds.
 
If they tightened their belt, why wouldn’t it be fit us?
jnug said:
Nope, not a bit IMO and you could have easily derived that from what I posted.
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Factoid. It's been quite a while since we've seen an OP here from a 'conservative' decrying the ever-increasing national debt. The chart at United States Government Debt | 2019 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast is informative. The 10 year track sums it nicely. There appears to be little or no discernible difference between Democrat and Republican administrations.
 
Trumper's

Just move along as fast as you can(LOL)
 
Simpletruther said:
If they tightened their belt, why wouldn’t it be fit us?
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Not really. There is no empirical data that suggests that "belt tightening" in a country like China will yield anything in and of itself. They are an authoritarian system and if Xi tells them to tighten their belts, they will tighten their belts.

What benefit there is to us in shifting supply chains is in gaining some protection against sole sourcing. But US companies will only shift as much as they can justify through cost analysis and not a dime more. If a company can cost justify 100% of a shift and can cost justify the actual cost and risk inherent to the shift they will do it. The number of those will be few indeed and it certainly will not put a single additional American to work.

The candidates under consideration are:
Phillipenes, I would not touch that one with a ten foot pole
Vietnam, Interesting but not really ready to support a major shift
India, has possibilities but its not likely that US manufacturers will shift much there until they resolve their issues with Pakistan. They will certainly not shift 100% there except in very particular instances. If I was a CEO now shifting 100% to India I would confront a Board with an obvious question. Why were you not in India before this? Why is it suddenly so appealing now?

All things considered if in fact this current Phase 1 pile of crap is actually going to be done in 2020, it resets the tariffs for all intents and purposes and that will be that and what pressure there is on US businesses to move out of China will effectively be stilted. Good luck getting past Phase 1 DonDon.

One item of note: The most damaging aspects of US/China trade are China IP theft and unfair industrial practices virtually supported by the Chinese government. Yet when the Commerce Dept hears "complaints" by US businesses and seeks aid in the form of testimony or supporting documentation no US company comes forward to provide it to support Dept of Commerce in its efforts. The basic response from US Businesses to Dept of Commerce is "Sorry, you are on your own".
 
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