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Fox News Poll: Trump should be removed from office, would lose in 2020

Rogue Valley

Rogue Valley

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Fox News Poll: Trump should be removed from office, would lose in 2020

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12/15/19
About half of registered voters say that President Donald Trump should be removed from office and that if he survives the impeachment effort, he'll have a tough time beating the Democratic candidate in the 2020 election, according to a FOX News poll released Sunday. The poll was conducted Dec. 8-11, a week before the House is to vote on articles of impeachment against Trump. The poll found that 50% of registered voters say Trump should be impeached in the House, convicted in the Senate and removed from office. Forty-one percent say the House should vote against impeaching the president and 4% say he should be impeached but not removed from office.

Though the Fox News poll released Sunday found Trump's job approval rating ticked up to 45% from 42% at the end of October, it shows the president losing in hypothetical matchups against the top-polling Democratic candidates. If the Democratic candidate is Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, the race appears much tighter: Trump loses by a single percentage point, 46%-45%. The poll says Trump would trail Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, 49%-43%, and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg by 1 point, 43%-42%. Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, a late entrant in the race, also tops Trump in the poll, 45%-40%.
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A definite majority of Americans want Trump impeached AND remove from office. Good on America :thumbs:
 
Rogue Valley said:
Fox News Poll: Trump should be removed from office, would lose in 2020

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A definite majority of Americans want Trump impeached AND remove from office. Good on America :thumbs:
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It's tighter than I'd like it to be. Going exclusively by the metric of which states support impeachment, Democrats win with 316 votes.

The problem? Voter suppression efforts are already well underway in Wisconsin, and those efforts in Florida and Ohio are going to be positively bonkers.

map.jpg
https://civiqs.com/results/trump_impeachment?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true&map=true
 
Trump expressed displeasure at Fox News for reporting news unfavorable to Trump.

Going into 2020, we Anti-Trumpers have much to feel good about!

In the 2018 Senate races, we faced a tough map:

Democrats faced an extremely unfavorable map as they were defending ten seats in states won by Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election and 26 in total while Republicans were only defending one seat in a state won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 and nine in total. Additionally, Democrats were defending five seats in states that Trump won by double digits in 2016.

The Republicans maintained and increased their majority, defeating Democratic incumbents in Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota. Democrats won two Republican-held seats, defeating incumbent Dean Heller in Nevada and winning an open seat in Arizona that was previously held by Jeff Flake.
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2018 United States Senate elections - Wikipedia

In 2018, we gained 41 seats in the House! Since then, we have flipped Governor races from RED to BLUE in KY and LA.

All of my serious research using interactive EV maps shows the eventual Anti-Trumper candidate as the likely winner in 2020.

Keep plugging along Anti-Trumpers. Keep Believing! Keep adding value to our Anti-Trumper Movement!
 
We honestly don't care what butt hurt leftist have to say or what butt hurt leftist want.
If you look at the independents poll impeachment and removal has fallen off greatly.

Trump is going to be acquitted and has a good chance of winning the next election.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Fox News Poll: Trump should be removed from office, would lose in 2020

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A definite majority of Americans want Trump impeached AND remove from office. Good on America :thumbs:
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If one goes by RCP averages and not just one poll, those in favor of impeachment and removal is at 47.2%, against 46.4%. A plurality, not a majority.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Trump Impeachment and Removal From Office: Support/Oppose

Then if broken down by party, you can see the very partisanship of the issue. Overwhelming sky high majority of Democrats wanting Trump removed and gone, overwhelming number of Republicans want him to stay. Independents, the less to non-partisan folks, the non-affiliated folks show a plurality against impeachment and removal 42% favor, 46% oppose.

13 Nov Democrats for impeachment and removal 82%, 15 Dec Democrats for impeachment and removal 86%.
13 Nov Republicans for impeachment and removal 12%, 15 Dec Republicans for impeachment and removal 10%.
13 Nov Independents for impeachment and removal 38%, 15 Dec Independents for impeachment and removal 42%.
13 Nov Democrats against impeachment and removal 6%, 15 Dec Democrats against impeachment and removal 9%.
13 Nov Republicans against impeachment and removal 80%, 15 Dec Republicans against impeachment and removal 87%.
13 Nov Independents against impeachment and removal 39%, 15 Dec Independents against impeachment and removal 46%.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Trump Impeachment and Removal From Office: Support/Oppose

You can bet the ranch that independents for impeachment and removal are democratic leaning independents and those oppose are republican leaning independents. In reality there are very few independents with no leans. Perhaps 15% of all independents. So basically, according to the numbers, not the heart or the mind, plain old numbers impeachment and removal is a one party affair for and a one party affair against.

Personally, I don't give a dang whether Trump goes or stays. But what this affair shows is the polarization, the ultra-high partisanship of the current political era we have entered. How each of the two major parties are out to destroy the other, how each major party views the other party as this nation's number one enemy.

Regardless, what the Democrats don't realize or totally ignore if they do, Trump is the direct result of the actions, choices and decisions made by both major parties in 2016. Perhaps Trump is the resulting symptom of both parties only governing for their base while ignoring America as a whole. Perhaps this is why both major parties are shrinking and independents rising. Independents has risen from 30% of the electorate in 2006 up to 42% today. There has to be a reason so many are deserting both major parties. That I don't think takes a rocket scientist to figure out. But somehow, I have a feeling neither major party has an inkling as they're too wrapped up in themselves.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Fox News Poll: Trump should be removed from office, would lose in 2020

EL1XLSqW4Ac-Ct_.jpg




A definite majority of Americans want Trump impeached AND remove from office. Good on America :thumbs:
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Not to rain on the parade, but the poll shows a plurality approve of impeachment - not a majority. Also, a 1pt swing from last month is fully within the MOE.

In addition, this poll is of registered voters, whereas polls of likely voters are more accurate; Trump does better in likely voter polls. Finally, what matters is not national polls, but the polling of the individual states in terms of electoral college totals. Trump does even better in these battle ground states than national polls would seem to indicate.

So all-in-all beating Trump on the basis of this poll is definitely not fait accompli.
 
Fox poll sampling data...

46% - Dem
41% - Rep
12% - Ind


POLL REJECTED!!!

Damn...even though they've been outed for their bogus poll by everyone, including the President, Fox still insists on presenting a bogus poll.
 
Mycroft said:
Fox poll sampling data...

46% - Dem
41% - Rep
12% - Ind


POLL REJECTED!!!

Damn...even though they've been outed for their bogus poll by everyone, including the President, Fox still insists on presenting a bogus poll.
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Standard “if the poll doesn’t represent an arbitrary distribution I decided on, it doesn’t count.”

Never took a stats class, did you?
 
Be sure to tell president Trump about this poll when he easily wins reelection in 2020!

The resist movement has failed time after time. :peace
 
Deuce said:
Standard “if the poll doesn’t represent an arbitrary distribution I decided on, it doesn’t count.”

Never took a stats class, did you?
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It's not an arbitrary distribution. It's based on the premier party affiliation poll from Gallup. They've been doing this for 15 years.

Party Affiliation | Gallup Historical Trends

According to Gallup, more of the country is Independent than either Party, yet Fox only sampled 12% Ind. This is called deliberate sampling error. This makes the poll useless.
 
charliebrown said:
A majority of people wanted Hillary Clinton. Our system does not work that way in elections and it absolutely does not work that way in government.
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Ya, who cares what the people want? Not you.
 
charliebrown said:
A majority of people wanted Hillary Clinton. Our system does not work that way in elections and it absolutely does not work that way in government.
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It works that way in every other election except the Presidential election.
 
Cardinal said:
It's tighter than I'd like it to be. Going exclusively by the metric of which states support impeachment, Democrats win with 316 votes.

The problem? Voter suppression efforts are already well underway in Wisconsin, and those efforts in Florida and Ohio are going to be positively bonkers.

View attachment 67270062
https://civiqs.com/results/trump_impeachment?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true&map=true
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THAT link was fantastic in sorting through the data and identifying where the next election might be going (it's still early). I think the focus should be on principle and getting out the vote. The senate could flip, too.
 
Deuce said:
Standard “if the poll doesn’t represent an arbitrary distribution I decided on, it doesn’t count.”

Never took a stats class, did you?
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Mycroft's deviation is well beyond the standard.
 
tres borrachos said:
Have Trump and his loyal cult members started attacking this poll yet?
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Of course they have! The rubes are just like a computer, garbage in, garbage out....
 
tres borrachos said:
Have Trump and his loyal cult members started attacking this poll yet?
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Of course they have.


The important point, I think, is the one Chomsky made: total numbers are not going to determine the outcome of 2020; State numbers are. At best, national numbers identify overall trends but are not predictive. Frankly, the impeach/remove numbers look a lot like the vote tallies from 2016. That concerns me, given that outcome.
 
Mycroft said:
It's not an arbitrary distribution. It's based on the premier party affiliation poll from Gallup. They've been doing this for 15 years.

Party Affiliation | Gallup Historical Trends

According to Gallup, more of the country is Independent than either Party, yet Fox only sampled 12% Ind. This is called deliberate sampling error. This makes the poll useless.
Click to expand...

That Gallup distribution is not magically the objective distribution in the country.
 
Deuce said:
That Gallup distribution is not magically the objective distribution in the country.
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Show me a better one and we can compare Fox's sampling to that one.
 
Holy ****. It's just impossible to give Liberals any good news. They'll find a dark cloud in there somewhere.
 
ludin said:
We honestly don't care what butt hurt leftist have to say or what butt hurt leftist want.
If you look at the independents poll impeachment and removal has fallen off greatly.

Trump is going to be acquitted and has a good chance of winning the next election.
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You can be butt hurt all you want, ludin, but Trump is in a heap of trouble.
 
Mycroft said:
Show me a better one and we can compare Fox's sampling to that one.
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The most relevant sampling is the one taken in the same poll.

You need to understand that self-reported party affiliation and political lean vary substantially from poll to poll. General population, registered voters, and likely voters are all different samples that yield different results. You’ll even get different results with the same methodology merely by including cell phones instead of landline-only. There is not a singular, “correct” ratio of Democrats to republicans.

Every time you vomit this ‘poll rejected’ canard, you are mathematically wrong.
 
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