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These are interactive maps based on the findings from the Civiqs polls. I've compared the national polling numbers with those of 538's averages and they hew pretty closely, so I don't think these are outliers. For the record, the 538 averages I'm comparing Civiqs to also samples registered voters (where possible) in order to compare apples to apples.
Based on the fact that the popular vote result doesn't really mean a whole lot anymore in practical terms, I've only used maps that pertain to the Electoral College.
A solid color ("safe") is ten points or more from the middle, mid-value color ("likely") is 3-9 points from the middle, light-color ("lean") indicates a result inside the margin of error, and grayest color (tipping point) is practically tied but does tilt ever so slightly to one side of the political aisle.
Sadly, Democratic candidate approval by state isn't available yet.
First, here's an electoral college map based on Trump's approval. In a normal universe, this map would be devastating to the Republican candidate. But...we don't live in a normal universe. Trump is a populist President whose base quite literally hates Democrats, so you could easily have a state with a whole lot of Republicans who don't like Trump, but they'll vote for him anyway because liberal tears. Still, the map has value.
Using the metric of Trump's approval by itself, Republicans could pick off every single Democratic state inside the margin of error and still lose the White House.
https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true
The second map answers the question, "Are we on the right track?" Blue indicates no, red, yes. But you want to be careful about reading too much into this map. Yes, if Republicans thought Trump was doing absolutely the right thing, you would think they would agree the country is on the right track. But there are other ways to read into it. A Republican could just as easily think the country is on the wrong track because Democrats have stalled his legislative agenda. Regardless, Trump is in charge of the country and with the Senate, his judicial agenda is guaranteed and he's not going anywhere. Republicans are effectively in control of the country, so the results of this map really isn't a great look for Trump. Anyway, make of the map what you will. If nothing else, you can take note of the literally the three states that believe everything is okey donkey.
https://civiqs.com/results/track_country?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true
The third map is, in my mind, the most illustrative. It's one thing to not like the President, and it's another to think we're not on the right track, but it's something else altogether to decide that the President should be removed from office before he completes his first term. That's a bit different than, "Meh, don't like the guy but I could live with him another four years." That also communicates to me a certain motivation to participate in the 2020 election rather than staying home out of apathy or demoralization.
The map also answers (for now, at least) the question: is impeachment helping Trump's re-election prospects? For now, the answer to that is a resounding "no."
That said, I also think this maps illustrates that while there's a clear path for a Democrat to the White House in 2020, it equally illustrates what a razor's edge that path is. If Democrats sit out 2020 like they did in 2016, then Republicans would only need to pick off a couple blue-lean states to keep the White House.
https://civiqs.com/results/trump_impeachment?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true
2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map
Based on the fact that the popular vote result doesn't really mean a whole lot anymore in practical terms, I've only used maps that pertain to the Electoral College.
A solid color ("safe") is ten points or more from the middle, mid-value color ("likely") is 3-9 points from the middle, light-color ("lean") indicates a result inside the margin of error, and grayest color (tipping point) is practically tied but does tilt ever so slightly to one side of the political aisle.
Sadly, Democratic candidate approval by state isn't available yet.
First, here's an electoral college map based on Trump's approval. In a normal universe, this map would be devastating to the Republican candidate. But...we don't live in a normal universe. Trump is a populist President whose base quite literally hates Democrats, so you could easily have a state with a whole lot of Republicans who don't like Trump, but they'll vote for him anyway because liberal tears. Still, the map has value.
Using the metric of Trump's approval by itself, Republicans could pick off every single Democratic state inside the margin of error and still lose the White House.
https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true
The second map answers the question, "Are we on the right track?" Blue indicates no, red, yes. But you want to be careful about reading too much into this map. Yes, if Republicans thought Trump was doing absolutely the right thing, you would think they would agree the country is on the right track. But there are other ways to read into it. A Republican could just as easily think the country is on the wrong track because Democrats have stalled his legislative agenda. Regardless, Trump is in charge of the country and with the Senate, his judicial agenda is guaranteed and he's not going anywhere. Republicans are effectively in control of the country, so the results of this map really isn't a great look for Trump. Anyway, make of the map what you will. If nothing else, you can take note of the literally the three states that believe everything is okey donkey.
https://civiqs.com/results/track_country?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true
The third map is, in my mind, the most illustrative. It's one thing to not like the President, and it's another to think we're not on the right track, but it's something else altogether to decide that the President should be removed from office before he completes his first term. That's a bit different than, "Meh, don't like the guy but I could live with him another four years." That also communicates to me a certain motivation to participate in the 2020 election rather than staying home out of apathy or demoralization.
The map also answers (for now, at least) the question: is impeachment helping Trump's re-election prospects? For now, the answer to that is a resounding "no."
That said, I also think this maps illustrates that while there's a clear path for a Democrat to the White House in 2020, it equally illustrates what a razor's edge that path is. If Democrats sit out 2020 like they did in 2016, then Republicans would only need to pick off a couple blue-lean states to keep the White House.
https://civiqs.com/results/trump_impeachment?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true
2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map
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