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Every month like clockwork, Republicans post the latest job growth report and it’s usually pretty decent. Average job growth under Trump isn’t as high as it was under Obama, but still...decent. And still, his approval never goes above the ceiling of 44%. This is confusing to Republicans because the old axiom “It’s the economy, stupid” should be putting his approval into the high fifties at least, but that’s clearly not happening. There are several reasons for this.
1)Trump did get his bump from the economy. That’s why it’s as high as 42%-44%.
2)”It’s the economy, stupid” is an incredibly simplistic and one-dimensional idea, and it was never meant by thinking people to be taken as the sole metric for public approval. Yes, voters care about the economy. But they also notice the President’s behavior.
3) Building on the point above, the good job growth numbers aren’t helping Trump because voters see this economy as normal, as pointed out in this NYTimes article:
“At this point, voters may think this is just the normal economy,” Mr. Fratto said. “That gives them the luxury to focus on other things, like the behavior of the president.”
With Impeachment Unfolding Amid a Booming Economy, What Will Voters Prioritize? - The New York Times
And that’s just true. Americans haven’t experienced a real recession since 2009. Ever since Obama turned the crisis around, it’s been ten straight years of solid job growth. Real recession fears have long faded from the public’s memory, so there’s the perception that Trump is taking credit for the sky being blue. True, blue skies tend to fill up with storm clouds eventually, but blue skies are all anyone has ever known for nearly 120 straight months. Shoving “amazing job growth report!” In people’s faces every month just doesn’t have the punch that it used to.
And so, as a result, people are freed up too look at the President’s behavior and conclude, “Yeah, that asshole needs to go.” And that’s demonstrated by the poll showing that a solid electoral college majority of states in favor of impeachment.
https://civiqs.com/results/trump_impeachment?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true
And posting yet another article showing positive job growth isn’t going to change that. People just read those articles and say, “Yeah, we know. Good job growth. What message are you trying to communicate by telling us that the economy is great over and over again? That we should just give Trump his own island and children to hunt for sport so long as there’s good job growth?”
But there is one thing that could help trump get above 44%. It would be brutally effective and it would absolutely work. It’s a completely new dynamic and nobody’s experienced it yet: Trump could wake up tomorrow morning and start being a decent human being. He could stop lying, he could be considerate and respectful towards even those he disagrees with. He could divest his businesses into a blind trust so there’s no perception of conflict of interest. He could stand with our allies. He could exercise the power of the pardon in a way that appeared fair and carefully considered.
But we all know none of that is going to happen. And so he will spend the rest of this year and all of 2020 ping-ponging between an approval of 42% and 44%.
1)Trump did get his bump from the economy. That’s why it’s as high as 42%-44%.
2)”It’s the economy, stupid” is an incredibly simplistic and one-dimensional idea, and it was never meant by thinking people to be taken as the sole metric for public approval. Yes, voters care about the economy. But they also notice the President’s behavior.
3) Building on the point above, the good job growth numbers aren’t helping Trump because voters see this economy as normal, as pointed out in this NYTimes article:
“At this point, voters may think this is just the normal economy,” Mr. Fratto said. “That gives them the luxury to focus on other things, like the behavior of the president.”
With Impeachment Unfolding Amid a Booming Economy, What Will Voters Prioritize? - The New York Times
And that’s just true. Americans haven’t experienced a real recession since 2009. Ever since Obama turned the crisis around, it’s been ten straight years of solid job growth. Real recession fears have long faded from the public’s memory, so there’s the perception that Trump is taking credit for the sky being blue. True, blue skies tend to fill up with storm clouds eventually, but blue skies are all anyone has ever known for nearly 120 straight months. Shoving “amazing job growth report!” In people’s faces every month just doesn’t have the punch that it used to.
And so, as a result, people are freed up too look at the President’s behavior and conclude, “Yeah, that asshole needs to go.” And that’s demonstrated by the poll showing that a solid electoral college majority of states in favor of impeachment.
https://civiqs.com/results/trump_impeachment?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true
And posting yet another article showing positive job growth isn’t going to change that. People just read those articles and say, “Yeah, we know. Good job growth. What message are you trying to communicate by telling us that the economy is great over and over again? That we should just give Trump his own island and children to hunt for sport so long as there’s good job growth?”
But there is one thing that could help trump get above 44%. It would be brutally effective and it would absolutely work. It’s a completely new dynamic and nobody’s experienced it yet: Trump could wake up tomorrow morning and start being a decent human being. He could stop lying, he could be considerate and respectful towards even those he disagrees with. He could divest his businesses into a blind trust so there’s no perception of conflict of interest. He could stand with our allies. He could exercise the power of the pardon in a way that appeared fair and carefully considered.
But we all know none of that is going to happen. And so he will spend the rest of this year and all of 2020 ping-ponging between an approval of 42% and 44%.
