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Jodi Ernst in a Hot Mess

calamity

calamity

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Iowa looks good for another D pick-up.

Sen. Joni Ernst Busted In Illegal Dark Money Scheme

Ernst was already vulnerable and her seat was a target for a Democratic pickup in 2020. With Trump’s trade war hurting the Republican Party in Iowa, the strong whiff of corruption surrounding Ernst could be enough to give even more momentum to Democrats in the state.

Joni Ernst isn’t often talked about as one of the most vulnerable Republican Senators, but the political landscape in Iowa is worth watching.
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Yes, that would be an important seat to win.
 
The way I see it: Every little bit helps! :thumbs:
 
Chomsky said:
The way I see it: Every little bit helps! :thumbs:
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IMO, R seats in Colorado and Arizona are likely to go to the Dems. Flipping Iowa and Maine has now also become likely. NC, Georgia and maybe even Texas are not out of the question either.

Alabama might go back to the R's though. After all, it is Alabama.
 
calamity said:
IMO, R seats in Colorado and Arizona are likely to go to the Dems. Flipping Iowa and Maine has now also become likely. NC, Georgia and maybe even Texas are not out of the question either.

Alabama might go back to the R's though. After all, it is Alabama.
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Well said. But it was sweet while it lasted. I really wish Beto would have stayed in TX and went after Cornyn's seat. He might not have won, but it would have provided good harassment and gave us a marker as to where the party is at down there.
 
Chomsky said:
Well said. But it was sweet while it lasted. I really wish Beto would have stayed in TX and went after Cornyn's seat. He might not have won, but it would have provided good harassment and gave us a marker as to where the party is at down there.
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Chris Bell is not a bad candidate. He'll be the likely nominee to run against Cornyn.
 
calamity said:
Chris Bell is not a bad candidate. He'll be the likely nominee to run against Cornyn.
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Actually - beyond Beto not challenging him - I haven't been following. It's a tough lift though, even for Beto with huge support and name recognition.

But it is interesting we're talking this. TX seems to be progressing towards Purple much quicker than any imagined. Who would have even considered the possibility, as little as 3 years ago? Who could have foreseen Beto giving Cruz a run? Pretty wild stuff! Texas is a changing!
 
calamity said:
IMO, R seats in Colorado and Arizona are likely to go to the Dems. Flipping Iowa and Maine has now also become likely. NC, Georgia and maybe even Texas are not out of the question either.

Alabama might go back to the R's though. After all, it is Alabama.
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Colorado, Arizona, Iowa and, lastly, Maine are the most likely but the rest I doubt. If the Dems take 3 plus the presidency, that makes a 50-50 Senate and the VP breaks the tie. But Dem Joe Manchin is a wild card in terms of voting with Dems or not.
 
Chomsky said:
Actually - beyond Beto not challenging him - I haven't been following. It's a tough lift though, even for Beto with huge support and name recognition.

But it is interesting we're talking this. TX seems to be progressing towards Purple much quicker than any imagined. Who would have even considered the possibility, as little as 3 years ago? Who could have foreseen Beto giving Cruz a run? Pretty wild stuff! Texas is a changing!
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Ernst and Trump will both win in Iowa. Of the 4 CDs in Iowa, 3 are toss-ups for the House next year and IA-4 is R + 11.

In 2018, the Republican Governor Kim Reynolds was re-elected, while Democrats won 3 of the 4 House CDs. Reynolds lost the first three CDs by 4K, 11k and 14k; and then won CD 4 by an overwhelming 65k.

IA-4 is Steve King’s CD. He has a difficult primary. The Democrat is good, but he can’t win. Forget about Maine with its ranked choice voting. The primary challenger to Tillis in NC just dropped out.

Georgia will elect two GOP Senators. Perdue is popular and Loeffler just dumped $20 million of her own money. If Democrats nominate a barking loon for President, this election will be worse than any this decade.
 
Linc said:
Ernst and Trump will both win in Iowa. Of the 4 CDs in Iowa, 3 are toss-ups for the House next year and IA-4 is R + 11.

In 2018, the Republican Governor Kim Reynolds was re-elected, while Democrats won 3 of the 4 House CDs. Reynolds lost the first three CDs by 4K, 11k and 14k; and then won CD 4 by an overwhelming 65k.

IA-4 is Steve King’s CD. He has a difficult primary. The Democrat is good, but he can’t win. Forget about Maine with its ranked choice voting. The primary challenger to Tillis in NC just dropped out.

Georgia will elect two GOP Senators. Perdue is popular and Loeffler just dumped $20 million of her own money. If Democrats nominate a barking loon for President, this election will be worse than any this decade.
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Can you share the current incumbency status of those 3 IA toss-up CDs? If you easily have that info easily available?

FYI - you might take interest in this video (only 4 mins). Looks like PA farmers don't like what Trump is doing, but see no Dem alternative that motivates them (just as you said).


 
Chomsky said:
Can you share the current incumbency status of those 3 IA toss-up CDs? If you easily have that info easily available?

FYI - you might take interest in this video (only 4 mins). Looks like PA farmers don't like what Trump is doing, but see no Dem alternative that motivates them (just as you said).


<snip>
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The bolded applies to much more than farmers and more than just PA.......imo.
 
Linc said:
Ernst and Trump will both win in Iowa. Of the 4 CDs in Iowa, 3 are toss-ups for the House next year and IA-4 is R + 11.

In 2018, the Republican Governor Kim Reynolds was re-elected, while Democrats won 3 of the 4 House CDs. Reynolds lost the first three CDs by 4K, 11k and 14k; and then won CD 4 by an overwhelming 65k.

IA-4 is Steve King’s CD. He has a difficult primary. The Democrat is good, but he can’t win. Forget about Maine with its ranked choice voting. The primary challenger to Tillis in NC just dropped out.

Georgia will elect two GOP Senators. Perdue is popular and Loeffler just dumped $20 million of her own money. If Democrats nominate a barking loon for President, this election will be worse than any this decade.
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Barking loons are all they have to offer so that part isn't up for debate.
 
Rexedgar said:
The bolded applies to much more than farmers and more than just PA.......imo.
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I might agree. Then we run into the quandary of, do Dems go for the base? Or, go for the middle?

But yeah, the Dems need a candidate with appeal. For me, I see some of that in Buttigieg. But I'm not sure the country does.
 
Chomsky said:
I might agree. Then we run into the quandary of, do Dems go for the base? Or, go for the middle?

But yeah, the Dems need a candidate with appeal. For me, I see some of that in Buttigieg. But I'm not sure the country does.
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I try to stay abreast of current events best as I can. I cannot see a clear favorite, nor is there a candidate that I feel can defeat Trump. The interference, last time, was only text adverts. Now altering audio and video are being perfected. The American electorate aren’t the sharpest tools in the shed......
 
Chomsky said:
Can you share the current incumbency status of those 3 IA toss-up CDs? If you easily have that info easily available?

FYI - you might take interest in this video (only 4 mins). Looks like PA farmers don't like what Trump is doing, but see no Dem alternative that motivates them (just as you said).


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My numbers come from dailykos elections and the green papers. dK uses the same technique for ‘office’ by CD, SD, and HD as the GOP used in REDMAP 2010. ‘Office’ can be President, Senator, Governor, etc. in which a state is broken down by districts.

This is where the term Clinton/GOP CDs came from in 2018. It’s now where the term Trump/DEM CDs are coming from for next year. dK didn’t figure it out until after the 2012 elections.

All 4 Iowa CDs voted for Trump, though the first 3 were close. IA-2 Loesback is retiring, though it’s probably the most DEM. IA-1 Finkenaur and IA-3 Axne are both tossups.

We were in Iowa over Thanksgiving. Moderate Democrats are getting pounded with RNC-dark money ads trying to tie them to the squad, Pelosi, Schiff, and impeachment. As in 2016, GOPs like to hit sports events, as I saw here last night against Underwood IL-14.

The power of incumbency can’t be overstated. The RNC is cohesive, the Democrats are completely adhesive, with zero response to the these hit ads. This is just like late 2009 and late 2013.
 
Chomsky said:
Well said. But it was sweet while it lasted. I really wish Beto would have stayed in TX and went after Cornyn's seat. He might not have won, but it would have provided good harassment and gave us a marker as to where the party is at down there.
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It would have been a good strategic move as it would force Republicans to spend a ton of resources in TX that they wouldn't be spending elsewhere.
 
veritas1 said:
Barking loons are all they have to offer so that part isn't up for debate.
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The difference between you and I is that I can analyze the strengths and weaknesses of BOTH parties. You just cherry-picked one word from my post and ran with it dishonestly.

You also didn’t bother to look inside your own glass house at the ultimate carnival barking loon, Trump.
 
Linc said:
My numbers come from dailykos elections and the green papers. dK uses the same technique for ‘office’ by CD, SD, and HD as the GOP used in REDMAP 2010. ‘Office’ can be President, Senator, Governor, etc. in which a state is broken down by districts.

This is where the term Clinton/GOP CDs came from in 2018. It’s now where the term Trump/DEM CDs are coming from for next year. dK didn’t figure it out until after the 2012 elections.

All 4 Iowa CDs voted for Trump, though the first 3 were close. IA-2 Loesback is retiring, though it’s probably the most DEM. IA-1 Finkenaur and IA-3 Axne are both tossups.

We were in Iowa over Thanksgiving. Moderate Democrats are getting pounded with RNC-dark money ads trying to tie them to the squad, Pelosi, Schiff, and impeachment. As in 2016, GOPs like to hit sports events, as I saw here last night against Underwood IL-14.

The power of incumbency can’t be overstated. The RNC is cohesive, the Democrats are completely adhesive, with zero response to the these hit ads. This is just like late 2009 and late 2013.
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Thanks!

Hah! "Green Papers"! Your old-school, Linc. Hard-core quantitative. I like that. :thumbs:

(BTW, those 3 CD's give me some optimism there)
 
Linc said:
The difference between you and I is that I can analyze the strengths and weaknesses of BOTH parties. You just cherry-picked one word from my post and ran with it dishonestly.

You also didn’t bother to look inside your own glass house at the ultimate carnival barking loon, Trump.
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I read your post and commented on its most inarguable point. That must be disconcerting for you.
 
veritas1 said:
Barking loons are all they have to offer so that part isn't up for debate.
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Do you realize who the Dem nominee will be sharing the debate stage with? I'd be careful about slinging this type of mud. Seriously.
 
Chomsky said:
Do you realize who the Dem nominee will be sharing the debate stage with? I'd be careful about slinging this type of mud. Seriously.
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Look, Trump is going to win in a walk. The economy will drive the election and we just had the best employment numbers ever on Friday. Peace and prosperity is a winning hand. Psychotic attempts to undue 2016, not so much.
 
lurchadams said:
Back to castrating pigs for her!



trump should be her first subject.
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Hah! Her main thrust in that video is balancing the budget? Stopping spending? And she's a Trumper? Marone!
 
Chomsky said:
Thanks!

Hah! "Green Papers"! Your old-school, Linc. Hard-core quantitative. I like that. :thumbs:
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I use GP and dK the most, though ballotpedia is far more in-depth, especially on everything to do with states. This is all based on REDMAP 2010 done by Chris Jankiwski. GP goes all the way back to the 2000 elections for data. Currently, they have all the FEC money totals. Sadly, that tells you who the viable candidates.

GP also has direct links to the websites of every candidate for federal office and major state office. dK is by far the most analytical, since it breaks down state vote all the way to counties in that particular district. Ballotpedia tells us the redistricting procedures for every state, for instance.

Today, it’s all Brad Parscale and his pollster Fabrizio. They’re light years ahead of the DEM alphabet groups.
 
veritas1 said:
I read your post and commented on its most inarguable point. That must be disconcerting for you.
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Trump is orders of magnitude ahead of any American politician in our history when it comes to being a carnival barking loon. You might gain some credence around here by changing your lenses from nearsighted to farsighted.
 
Linc said:
Trump is orders of magnitude ahead of any American politician in our history when it comes to being a carnival barking loon. You might gain some credence around here by changing your lenses from nearsighted to farsighted.
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Trump, for all his bluster, tweeting and what not, is succeeding. That is all that matters and why he will be re-elected. The fact that the Dems have virtually nothing to offer other than vitriol and wacko ideas also assures it.
 
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