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Biden is in trouble.

MrWonka said:
So you think if Obama would have just yelled at Republicans more they would have voted for his bills? I hope you're not serious.
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No, not Republicans, Democrats during their majority when the public option was in play.

And I would have obviously preferred him to take up the stick after Republicans had proven they take his carrots without reciprocity.
 
MovingPictures said:
What defines winning the A-A vote though? If it's all about appealing to southeast Baptists, it really doesn't matter. Alabama, Georgia, and whatnot are going to go Republican in the general.

We have to remember that people are likely to feel different the final nominee, once they know that person is the only path to beating Trump.

IF Biden hangs on and wins NH, he'll be on track to still win the primary. But if he loses that and Iowa, it's hard to see him winning the primary. Such a loss would move national opinion and he'll struggle on both the west coast and northeast, and across the rust belt.
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A strong nomination showing among the AA vote of the Southern states is not about winning the Southern states in the general, though that could be important in places like NC, but rather it's about showing you can draw the A-A vote in places that count like MI. It might be argued the moderate A-A vote for Hillary was strongly contributory to her loss.
 
MovingPictures said:
There have been several Republican candidates who lost Iowa, then went on to win the primary. However, I can not recall any candidate losing both Iowa and NH, and going on to win their primary.

If Biden loses Iowa, but wins NH, he'll still be in the game. If he loses both Iowa and NH, yet wins NV and SC, he'll be damaged, but have a 50/50 shot. But if Buttigieg and Warren can win Iowa and NH, then one of them manages to win NV, it's almost a certainty that Biden will go on to lose, even if he stays strong in the South.
/7
OTOH, if Warren or Buttigieg win both Iowa and NH, they will almost certainly go on to win.
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Great analysis!!!! NV is going to be the person with the best ground game. I am going to bet Butt will have the entire LGBT community working 24/7 to achieve success in this primary.
I am betting that community will get him to the general election.

I would bet that Biden does not make it thru the primaries. Once the primaries start up, you have to be out there 24/7 talking with people and the press. I do not think DEM's want to deal with a gaff a day from Biden.
 
Chomsky said:
An abstraction? Perhaps. But it's a political reality, whereas you're arguing irrelevant technicality. If your argument were the case, there would be no FDR New Deal, no Reagan War on Drugs, no Obama Care. Yet we see all the aforementioned Presidents got their namesake legislation.
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Public support for Sanders’ proposed legislation has never been earth shatteringly high and its dropping like a rock the more he discloses about it. Then you drop the bombshell that people will actually have to pay for it and it might as well be no one. If you’re banking on Congressional support then it’s best to keep in mind that loyalty to the President doesn’t extend to committing political suicide by raising taxes on the middle class to pay for a program that only 51% of Americans support before they find out they have to pay for it.
 
MovingPictures said:
Buttigieg appears to making a surge akin to Warren's a few months back, where we've seen his numbers in Iowa make a dramatic rise, and one poll (though a small sample) shows him rising in New Hampshire as well.

After Bidens awful debate last night, where he couldn't seem to complete a thought without stumbling, or saying something heinously stupid, one has to wonder if the center of the party is beginning to calculate that he's simply past his sell by date, and they are looking for another candidate.

This has happened to Republicans before. Think back to when Gingrich ran in 2012 and seemed to have all the political capital needed to win, and then failed miserably in his primary fight. There's more to winning a primary than name recognition and being a former Speaker or VP, or being connected to a dynasty, and clearly Biden was not aware of this.

I'm not going to declare Biden's candidacy dead, but he's in major trouble. He's a distant third or fourth in Iowa, he's numbers in NH aren't great, and his latest debate performance is not going to help that, but he's still strong in South Carolina and other states.

There is still a path for Biden to win, but his ability to do well beyond the south east and deep heartland is very questionable.

Thoughts?
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I feel bad for the guy. Its painful to watch him close his eyes and struggle to remember what it is he wants to say. And even worse to see him laughed at by the crowd and others on the stage. His mind is going and its hard to watch.
 
Jay59 said:
Buttigieg has always come across as angry to me. Last night it really showed in his closing statement. If I am right, he has no chance of managing his temper against Trump.
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He won't last long anyway. His support among Blacks is near nil. Even worse then that in his own damn town, which has a high Black population. If you're a Dem and you have weak Black support, you're basically ****ed.
 
Napoleon said:
Public support for Sanders’ proposed legislation has never been earth shatteringly high and its dropping like a rock the more he discloses about it. Then you drop the bombshell that people will actually have to pay for it and it might as well be no one. If you’re banking on Congressional support then it’s best to keep in mind that loyalty to the President doesn’t extend to committing political suicide by raising taxes on the middle class to pay for a program that only 51% of Americans support before they find out they have to pay for it.
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On this topic (sub-topic?), I very much agree. In fact, after I posted I considered this to be an excellent example of how powerful the President's bully pulpit is, that Obama was able to put forth a program that was barely popular with a very scant majority.

Remember I use "bully pulpit" in the traditional sense, that being in having a loud powerful place (voice) to advocate from. Trump does this too, as did every President before him. And it can lead to legislation, though it is by no means guaranteed. But it is the loudest platform to accomplish this.
 
Jay59 said:
I did not think Biden was any worse than on any other stage. He is what he is.

Buttigieg has always come across as angry to me.
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Buttigieg? Angry?? You misspelled "Trump." :lamo
 
Roadvirus said:
He won't last long anyway. His support among Blacks is near nil. Even worse then that in his own damn town, which has a high Black population. If you're a Dem and you have weak Black support, you're basically ****ed.
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Buttigieg is my favorite candidate, but I pretty much agree with you here. That's why I hoped he would get taken-up as a Veep. However I've since given up, and now support him equivalently - politics be damned! Let the chips fall where they may.
 
will it benefit or expose Biden if his competition must sit as jurors in DC come Jan/Feb?

The unusual event will begin with a restriction from the Senate sergeant-at-arms that for most senators, especially the ones jostling for advantage in a fiercely competitive primary, will be akin to telling Superman to relinquish his cape: “All persons are commanded to keep silent, on pain of imprisonment, while the Senate of the United States is sitting for the trial of the Articles of Impeachment exhibited by the House of Representatives against Donald John Trump, president of the United States.”

Unlike a hearing for a high-profile confirmation battle, or the House impeachment hearings, senators won’t be able to manufacture viral video moments. Senators, including the six presidential candidates, don’t speak during the trial, and if they want to ask questions they need to write it down and pass it to Chief Justice John Roberts, all of which was news to numerous aides I spoke with this week on multiple campaigns. The Biden campaign, which includes several people who were working in the Senate or White House in 1999, seemed to know this history better than others.
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The impeachment calculus Democrats don't want to talk about - POLITICO
 
Napoleon said:
Public support for Sanders’ proposed legislation has never been earth shatteringly high and its dropping like a rock the more he discloses about it. Then you drop the bombshell that people will actually have to pay for it and it might as well be no one. If you’re banking on Congressional support then it’s best to keep in mind that loyalty to the President doesn’t extend to committing political suicide by raising taxes on the middle class to pay for a program that only 51% of Americans support before they find out they have to pay for it.
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Support of his core ideas and policy points has been majoritarian for years and still is, despite some like MFA being incessantly attacked lately.

Indeed, even polls that posit higher taxes have made out with majoritarian support: CNN Poll: Most think the government should provide a national health insurance program - CNNPolitics

The only time MFA has polled badly is via push polls that claim the wholesale elimination of the private insurance industry (itself an incorrect claim due to supplemental coverage still being permitted so long as it's not duplicative) without clarifying that people keep their providers which is blatantly disingenuous.
 
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Democrats = Finally figuring out that Biden is fried

In other news, the Beatles broke up.

:thumbs:
 
Chomsky said:
On this topic (sub-topic?), I very much agree. In fact, after I posted I considered this to be an excellent example of how powerful the President's bully pulpit is, that Obama was able to put forth a program that was barely popular with a very scant majority.

Remember I use "bully pulpit" in the traditional sense, that being in having a loud powerful place (voice) to advocate from. Trump does this too, as did every President before him. And it can lead to legislation, though it is by no means guaranteed. But it is the loudest platform to accomplish this.
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Rather ironic as an example since Obama barely made actual use of his bully pulpit if at all, as we've seen per his non-interaction with that insurance shill hold out Lieberman.

Also the public option that Lieberman successfully fought off was in fact rather popular at the time.
 
Surrealistik said:
Rather ironic as an example since Obama barely made actual use of his bully pulpit if at all, as we've seen per his non-interaction with that insurance shill hold out Lieberman.

Also the public option that Lieberman successfully fought off was in fact rather popular at the time.
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Agreed.
 
Chomsky said:
A strong nomination showing among the AA vote of the Southern states is not about winning the Southern states in the general, though that could be important in places like NC, but rather it's about showing you can draw the A-A vote in places that count like MI. It might be argued the moderate A-A vote for Hillary was strongly contributory to her loss.
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Many, many things contributed to Clinton's loss, not just A-A.

Bringing out the vote across the board is the name of the game. If Democrats build their strategy on trying to perfectly appease everyone again, they'll end up opening the door for Trump again.

As things stand right now, Michigan and Pennsylvania are going to probably turn blue again. Arizona has gone from pink to purple, while Wisconsin hasn't gone as blue as some of the other states. It's clear the election tipping points are in those two states. Trump needs to hang on to both to win, which he can absolutely do. The secret to winning there is to drive suburban women to come out and vote for the Democratic candidate, purely out of disgust for what Trump has done.

The good news is that the elections over the past few months prove the suburbs are getting bluer by the month, and college educated women there still hate his guts.
 
Roadvirus said:
He won't last long anyway. His support among Blacks is near nil. Even worse then that in his own damn town, which has a high Black population. If you're a Dem and you have weak Black support, you're basically ****ed.
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Which is important in all the big Super Tuesday states. Biden does best of the bunch which is one reason I say he is capable of ending this on 3 March 2020.
 
MovingPictures said:
Many, many things contributed to Clinton's loss, not just A-A.

Bringing out the vote across the board is the name of the game. If Democrats build their strategy on trying to perfectly appease everyone again, they'll end up opening the door for Trump again.

As things stand right now, Michigan and Pennsylvania are going to probably turn blue again. Arizona has gone from pink to purple, while Wisconsin hasn't gone as blue as some of the other states. It's clear the election tipping points are in those two states. Trump needs to hang on to both to win, which he can absolutely do. The secret to winning there is to drive suburban women to come out and vote for the Democratic candidate, purely out of disgust for what Trump has done.

The good news is that the elections over the past few months prove the suburbs are getting bluer by the month, and college educated women there still hate his guts.
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You list a lot of reasons why the Democrats are very nervous about the election. Not least of which is that Trump has a unified and motivated base, while the economy and the incumbency were in Democratic hands four years ago. It does not look like a good year to be a Democrat.

As for disgust, there is a significant amount generated by the kangaroo court currently in session.
 
MovingPictures said:
Buttigieg appears to making a surge akin to Warren's a few months back, where we've seen his numbers in Iowa make a dramatic rise, and one poll (though a small sample) shows him rising in New Hampshire as well.

After Bidens awful debate last night, where he couldn't seem to complete a thought without stumbling, or saying something heinously stupid, one has to wonder if the center of the party is beginning to calculate that he's simply past his sell by date, and they are looking for another candidate.

This has happened to Republicans before. Think back to when Gingrich ran in 2012 and seemed to have all the political capital needed to win, and then failed miserably in his primary fight. There's more to winning a primary than name recognition and being a former Speaker or VP, or being connected to a dynasty, and clearly Biden was not aware of this.

I'm not going to declare Biden's candidacy dead, but he's in major trouble. He's a distant third or fourth in Iowa, he's numbers in NH aren't great, and his latest debate performance is not going to help that, but he's still strong in South Carolina and other states.

There is still a path for Biden to win, but his ability to do well beyond the south east and deep heartland is very questionable.

Thoughts?
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Mayor Pete is making some serious headway here in NH. That makes me happy.

Yes, Biden is in trouble. The man's time came and went a long time ago. I don't see him winning the nomination, black support aside.
 
MovingPictures said:
Does anybody seriously think Biden would be above DeLaney and Bullock if Obama hadn't pulled him from the 'also-ran' pack?
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Joe Biden is a nice man, a good civil servant, with a long and distinguished career in politics.

But he's too old, too much an "insider", and lacks an articulate tongue to debate Trump. The Dems need someone who can show what an inarticulate moron Trump is (not that most of us don't already know that, but people who don't follow politics may not know it - yet).

Biden shouldn't be the nominee.

I wish Jon Huntsman was still around. Or Jim Webb.
 
MovingPictures said:
Thoughts?
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1. Yes, my fellow senior citizen should not be running for president.

2. According to what I have read in a LIBERAL magazine, when he was younger, he WAS a good speaker and agile on his feet. Now he is just a pathetic old man who obviously has at least some minor problems of concentration.

3. If he were elected, he would just be a figurehead. He would be like a king. The real power would lie with the vice president (probably a woman of color) and/or the cabinet, packed with solid liberals, including Miss Hillary, until a seat on the Supreme Court opens up for her.

4. It's time to pack it in, Joe.
 
tres borrachos said:
Mayor Pete is making some serious headway here in NH. That makes me happy.

Yes, Biden is in trouble. The man's time came and went a long time ago. I don't see him winning the nomination, black support aside.
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Aside from politics, someone close to him should take him aside and offer him a dignified way out.
 
In others news, according to RCP, Sanders is very close to cracking the 20% "glass cieling" many have said he couldn't crack.
 
TheParser said:
1. Yes, my fellow senior citizen should not be running for president.

2. According to what I have read in a LIBERAL magazine, when he was younger, he WAS a good speaker and agile on his feet. Now he is just a pathetic old man who obviously has at least some minor problems of concentration.

3. If he were elected, he would just be a figurehead. He would be like a king. The real power would lie with the vice president (probably a woman of color) and/or the cabinet, packed with solid liberals, including Miss Hillary, until a seat on the Supreme Court opens up for her.

4. It's time to pack it in, Joe.
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Biden is 4 years older than Trump, I guess you think Trump should pack it in as well huh? Being a senior and all right?
 
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