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Biden is in trouble.

Napoleon said:
The office of the President has no such power. He’s peddling his own legislation - which still must be passed by Congress first whether he becomes President or not. If Sanders wants to legislate then he’s running for the wrong office.
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Presidents legislate, among other things, through the bully pulpit.
 
Chomsky said:
But neither Warren nor Buttigieg will show well in NC and the Southern States, and that is going to leave the field kinda' fugged.
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I saw a poll recently that showed all four of the Democratic Front runners including Warren and Buttigieg beating Trump in Georgia. We'll see what happens, but I hope you're not planning on winning a bunch of southern states with Biden.
 
MovingPictures said:
Buttigieg appears to making a surge akin to Warren's a few months back, where we've seen his numbers in Iowa make a dramatic rise, and one poll (though a small sample) shows him rising in New Hampshire as well.

After Bidens awful debate last night, where he couldn't seem to complete a thought without stumbling, or saying something heinously stupid, one has to wonder if the center of the party is beginning to calculate that he's simply past his sell by date, and they are looking for another candidate.

This has happened to Republicans before. Think back to when Gingrich ran in 2012 and seemed to have all the political capital needed to win, and then failed miserably in his primary fight. There's more to winning a primary than name recognition and being a former Speaker or VP, or being connected to a dynasty, and clearly Biden was not aware of this.

I'm not going to declare Biden's candidacy dead, but he's in major trouble. He's a distant third or fourth in Iowa, he's numbers in NH aren't great, and his latest debate performance is not going to help that, but he's still strong in South Carolina and other states.

There is still a path for Biden to win, but his ability to do well beyond the south east and deep heartland is very questionable.

Thoughts?
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If Biden fails to win in South Carolina - he is done. I suspect - barring some unforeseen disaster - that Biden will win that state primary and will be seen as the leading contender.

Hillary Clinton won the nomination in 2016 largely thorough the united support of the African American voter - which in many states was as much as 40% of the Dem turnout. That gives her a huge advantage. If Biden can do the same - he is the man no matter how many gaffes and misstatement he falls prey to.
 
Chomsky said:
[/B]Presidents legislate, among other things, through the bully pulpit.
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That’s an abstraction. Presidents are 100% dependent on Congress for legislation. They may bully Reps. from their own party into pushing their agenda in Congress, but that’s hardly a guarantee of anything but a lot of hot air. Besides, who is Democratic Socialist Sanders going to bully? Hint: Nobody who wouldn’t immediately run to the press accusing Sanders of using his white male privilege to mansplain and silence women of color.
 
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MovingPictures said:
Buttigieg appears to making a surge akin to Warren's a few months back, where we've seen his numbers in Iowa make a dramatic rise, and one poll (though a small sample) shows him rising in New Hampshire as well.

After Bidens awful debate last night, where he couldn't seem to complete a thought without stumbling, or saying something heinously stupid, one has to wonder if the center of the party is beginning to calculate that he's simply past his sell by date, and they are looking for another candidate.

This has happened to Republicans before. Think back to when Gingrich ran in 2012 and seemed to have all the political capital needed to win, and then failed miserably in his primary fight. There's more to winning a primary than name recognition and being a former Speaker or VP, or being connected to a dynasty, and clearly Biden was not aware of this.

I'm not going to declare Biden's candidacy dead, but he's in major trouble. He's a distant third or fourth in Iowa, he's numbers in NH aren't great, and his latest debate performance is not going to help that, but he's still strong in South Carolina and other states.

There is still a path for Biden to win, but his ability to do well beyond the south east and deep heartland is very questionable.

Thoughts?
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His recent performances cast a lot of doubt for me on his viability. Also, I never felt he was a strong candidate on his own merit; he appears to be the safe choice out of the current field. I imagine for centrist Democrats Biden's inability to inspire people is a real concern because right now his main selling point is he's not Trump. He hasn't captured the spotlight with innovative policy ideas either which doesn't help. We can critique the other Democratic candidates for veering left of center, but at least they've got some ideas and plans. I think back on the 2016 election where the clear theme was a major change from the status quo, and I think Biden will represent the old guard in much the same way Clinton did; only he's not disliked with that level of intensity. I don't know if he's saving his energy for later on in the primary process, but at this rate I don't think he's going to shine as the viable alternative.
 
MovingPictures said:
There have been several Republican candidates who lost Iowa, then went on to win the primary. However, I can not recall any candidate losing both Iowa and NH, and going on to win their primary.

If Biden loses Iowa, but wins NH, he'll still be in the game. If he loses both Iowa and NH, yet wins NV and SC, he'll be damaged, but have a 50/50 shot. But if Buttigieg and Warren can win Iowa and NH, then one of them manages to win NV, it's almost a certainty that Biden will go on to lose, even if he stays strong in the South.

OTOH, if Warren or Buttigieg win both Iowa and NH, they will almost certainly go on to win.
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I fear Buttigieg or Warren winning in the strongly Caucasian states (IA, NH, etc.), with Biden winning (perhaps strongly) in the Southern and states with a significant A-A presence (SC, AL, etc.).

Then, we're kinda' screwed. Because we may be stuck with Biden, or stuck with a nominee that may not be able to win without the all-important A-A vote.
 
MovingPictures said:
Buttigieg appears to making a surge akin to Warren's a few months back, where we've seen his numbers in Iowa make a dramatic rise, and one poll (though a small sample) shows him rising in New Hampshire as well.

After Bidens awful debate last night, where he couldn't seem to complete a thought without stumbling, or saying something heinously stupid, one has to wonder if the center of the party is beginning to calculate that he's simply past his sell by date, and they are looking for another candidate.

This has happened to Republicans before. Think back to when Gingrich ran in 2012 and seemed to have all the political capital needed to win, and then failed miserably in his primary fight. There's more to winning a primary than name recognition and being a former Speaker or VP, or being connected to a dynasty, and clearly Biden was not aware of this.

I'm not going to declare Biden's candidacy dead, but he's in major trouble. He's a distant third or fourth in Iowa, he's numbers in NH aren't great, and his latest debate performance is not going to help that, but he's still strong in South Carolina and other states.

There is still a path for Biden to win, but his ability to do well beyond the south east and deep heartland is very questionable.

Thoughts?
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Biden should be in trouble but still enjoys name recognition and large support among black voters. Warren is adopting the Buttigieg position on medical care and thus will be more of a problem for him than Biden was. If Sanders drops out then Warren will crush Buttigieg but that, so far, seems unlikely since it is obviously Sanders' last chance at POTUS.
 
Biden missed his window. He inspires very few voters. As each primary and caucus approaches, I see his POTUS dream and aspirations drying up.

The following primary and caucus dates have been scheduled by state statutes or state party decisions, but are subject to change pending legislation, state party delegate selection plans, or the decisions of state secretaries of state:[324]

February 3: Iowa caucuses
February 11: New Hampshire primary
February 22: Nevada caucuses
February 29: South Carolina primary
March 3: Super Tuesday (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia primaries); American Samoa caucuses; Democrats Abroad party-run primary for expatriates features a March 3–10 voting period.
March 10: Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, and Washington primaries; North Dakota firehouse caucuses (identical to a party-run primary).
March 14: Northern Mariana Islands caucuses
March 17: Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio primaries
March 24: Georgia primary[325]
March 29: Puerto Rico primary[326]
April 4: Alaska, Hawaii, and Louisiana primaries; Wyoming caucuses
April 7: Wisconsin primary
April 28: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island primaries
May 2: Kansas primary; Guam caucuses
May 5: Indiana primary
May 12: Nebraska and West Virginia primaries
May 19: Kentucky and Oregon primaries
June 2: Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota primaries
June 6: United States Virgin Islands caucuses
June 16: District of Columbia primary (bill proposing a move to June 2 has been approved by the DC Council and now only awaits final approval by the US Congress for enactment)
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MovingPictures said:
Buttigieg appears to making a surge akin to Warren's a few months back, where we've seen his numbers in Iowa make a dramatic rise, and one poll (though a small sample) shows him rising in New Hampshire as well.

After Bidens awful debate last night, where he couldn't seem to complete a thought without stumbling, or saying something heinously stupid, one has to wonder if the center of the party is beginning to calculate that he's simply past his sell by date, and they are looking for another candidate.

This has happened to Republicans before. Think back to when Gingrich ran in 2012 and seemed to have all the political capital needed to win, and then failed miserably in his primary fight. There's more to winning a primary than name recognition and being a former Speaker or VP, or being connected to a dynasty, and clearly Biden was not aware of this.

I'm not going to declare Biden's candidacy dead, but he's in major trouble. He's a distant third or fourth in Iowa, he's numbers in NH aren't great, and his latest debate performance is not going to help that, but he's still strong in South Carolina and other states.

There is still a path for Biden to win, but his ability to do well beyond the south east and deep heartland is very questionable.

Thoughts?
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I agree. Biden has been circling the drain for a bit. He’s ridden Obama’s coattails about as long as he can.
 
He sure doesn't look good, but I wish our other candidates were more electable than they are. I'd sure like more to choose from.

Beyond Biden's stumbling performance before, during and after the debate, he's proposing we studying marijuana to verify it's a 'gateway' drug?!? What the hell is that about? It's not a good sign...
 
MovingPictures said:
There have been several Republican candidates who lost Iowa, then went on to win the primary. However, I can not recall any candidate losing both Iowa and NH, and going on to win their primary.

If Biden loses Iowa, but wins NH, he'll still be in the game. If he loses both Iowa and NH, yet wins NV and SC, he'll be damaged, but have a 50/50 shot. But if Buttigieg and Warren can win Iowa and NH, then one of them manages to win NV, it's almost a certainty that Biden will go on to lose, even if he stays strong in the South.

OTOH, if Warren or Buttigieg win both Iowa and NH, they will almost certainly go on to win.
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And I’d be ok with either of them.
 
Surrealistik said:
I think it's pretty obvious that they're looking to jump ship.

Biden's donor's are already panicking ( Democratic donor class is panicked about Joe Biden'''s weakness - Business Insider) ; his campaign actively (albeit understandably) seeks to minimize his appearances ( Biden allies float scaling back events to limit gaffes | TheHill ), and due to poor fundraising, he's had to break his own promise not to lean on SuperPACs ( Biden Campaign Drops Opposition to Super PAC Support - The New York Times ).

Just now Emerson polling (A- rating per 538) had Biden and Bernie tied at 27% nationally; his fall while glacial seems both consistent and inevitable. Further, he consistently ranks 4th in Iowa.

As an aside, Buttigieg's Iowa performance isn't surprising as he outspends his nearest competitor in outlays there about 10 to 1, obviously angling for an all-in strategy/gambit.
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There is so much big money panic of progressives winning the ticket... They just keep shopping for a new centrist to back but they go nowhere. They really really like Klobuchar but she cant get going, the were fine with Biden but his campaign is going to crash, and they were in love with Kamala who took a greased slide into low single digits. They'll back anyone but Sanders or Warren. Unfortunately for them Sanders and Warren keep solid while everyone else surges and collapses. I for one am happy as hell with the progressives at the top of the polls.
 
Won't Biden have advantage if 5 senators are sitting as jurors come Jan/Feb when states start voting in primaries?
 
MrWonka said:
I saw a poll recently that showed all four of the Democratic Front runners including Warren and Buttigieg beating Trump in Georgia. We'll see what happens, but I hope you're not planning on winning a bunch of southern states with Biden.
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I'm not sure, probably not. But I do believe Biden will show strongly in the Dem nomination in the Southern states.
 
ElChupacabra said:
His recent performances cast a lot of doubt for me on his viability. Also, I never felt he was a strong candidate on his own merit; he appears to be the safe choice out of the current field. I imagine for centrist Democrats Biden's inability to inspire people is a real concern because right now his main selling point is he's not Trump. He hasn't captured the spotlight with innovative policy ideas either which doesn't help. We can critique the other Democratic candidates for veering left of center, but at least they've got some ideas and plans. I think back on the 2016 election where the clear theme was a major change from the status quo, and I think Biden will represent the old guard in much the same way Clinton did; only he's not disliked with that level of intensity. I don't know if he's saving his energy for later on in the primary process, but at this rate I don't think he's going to shine as the viable alternative.
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There are consequences to making your campaign totally about the things you can't do.
 
SoCal said:
He sure doesn't look good, but I wish our other candidates were more electable than they are. I'd sure like more to choose from.

Beyond Biden's stumbling performance before, during and after the debate, he's proposing we studying marijuana to verify it's a 'gateway' drug?!? What the hell is that about? It's not a good sign...
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We need stop calling him a "moderate". He's not. Biden has always been a Blue Dog.
 
Did anyone REALLY think Biden was going to be the nominee?
 
Chomsky said:
I fear Buttigieg or Warren winning in the strongly Caucasian states (IA, NH, etc.), with Biden winning (perhaps strongly) in the Southern and states with a significant A-A presence (SC, AL, etc.).

Then, we're kinda' screwed. Because we may be stuck with Biden, or stuck with a nominee that may not be able to win without the all-important A-A vote.
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What defines winning the A-A vote though? If it's all about appealing to southeast Baptists, it really doesn't matter. Alabama, Georgia, and whatnot are going to go Republican in the general.

We have to remember that people are likely to feel different the final nominee, once they know that person is the only path to beating Trump.

IF Biden hangs on and wins NH, he'll be on track to still win the primary. But if he loses that and Iowa, it's hard to see him winning the primary. Such a loss would move national opinion and he'll struggle on both the west coast and northeast, and across the rust belt.
 
Superfly said:
I agree. Biden has been circling the drain for a bit. He’s ridden Obama’s coattails about as long as he can.
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Does anybody seriously think Biden would be above DeLaney and Bullock if Obama hadn't pulled him from the 'also-ran' pack?
 
Napoleon said:
That’s an abstraction. Presidents are 100% dependent on Congress for legislation. They may bully Reps. from their own party into pushing their agenda in Congress, but that’s hardly a guarantee of anything but a lot of hot air. Besides, who is Democratic Socialist Sanders going to bully? Hint: Nobody who wouldn’t immediately run to the press accusing Sanders of using his white male privilege to mansplain and silence women of color.
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An abstraction? Perhaps. But it's a political reality, whereas you're arguing irrelevant technicality. If your argument were the case, there would be no FDR New Deal, no Reagan War on Drugs, no Obama Care. Yet we see all the aforementioned Presidents got their namesake legislation.
 
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