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For those that think Biden is a shoo-in.

MovingPictures said:
Correct, but it's all about delegates, just as the general is all about the the electoral college.

Clinton blew runaway leads that would've secured victory both times.
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I believe you're right.
 
Perotista said:
I believe you're right.
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Both Clinton and the Atlanta Falcons were beaten by evil forces in shocking turnarounds.
3CE2DE7100000578-0-image-m-146_1486361323199.jpg
 
MovingPictures said:
For all who think that Biden has the nomination in the bag because he's 12+ over Warren-Sanders, take a little look at history, specifically the 2007 primary.

In the CNN poll of October 14th, Clinton held a 29+ lead. People were ready to give the nomination to her and were ready to pop open the champagne - something Clinton does regularly. But two weeks later her lead was down to 19+ and by December it was down to 10+. When the year flipped over Obama was within single digits and by the first week of February, he had overtaken Clinton in the polls and he never looked back.


RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Democratic Presidential Nomination

Obama achieved that incredible drive by painting Clinton as a bad Democrat, who's policies harmed minorities, looked out for special interests, and who voted with Republicans on an unacceptably frequent basis. He made her connection to her husband a liability, which was brilliant in hindsight. I remember at the time pundits saying "he's attacking the Clinton legacy!" and how that would turn off the base, just like they say candidates are (ironically) attacking Obama's legacy when they confront Biden about his record.
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Yeah; it's gonna be Harris unless she seriously tanks, or Warren.

It's a race for VP now.
 
Obscurity said:
Trump is poised for re-election if Biden is the choice. Bernie, or Yang, are probably the best bets to beat Trump. Bernie because of his populist appeal; Yang because right now he is the only one willing to confront the upcoming apocalypse in the jobs sector.

Any employer worth their salt will automate because automation means permanent production. Humans get sick, build families, make mistakes, etc.

Yang will give us a chance against Skynet.
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Love Bernie & Andy & Tulsi, but only Michelle can deliver the White House back to the Democrats.
 
OscarLevant said:
The progressive vote is split among several candidates, and that total is more than Biden's who has 90% of the moderate vote.
.
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this is nonesense

the entire loony left vote is going to Bernie and Warren

All the other candidates votes are likely Joe voters not socialist voters.
 
3leftsdoo said:
Love Bernie & Andy & Tulsi, but only Michelle can deliver the White House back to the Democrats.
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Michelle? As in Obama?

This women is right there with Hillary as most hated by the right and middle.
 
JackA said:
Trump is poised to fall on his face. Any of the leading Democrats could defeat him. Biden may be the riskiest, however. He's shown signs of fragility, whether its age or nerves or something else. He will lose the nomination if he keeps stumbling.
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"could"

it's not likely though
 
OscarLevant said:
The progressive vote is split among several candidates, and that total is more than Biden's who has 90% of the moderate vote.

That leads me to understand the wiser choice for the nomination would be a progressive candidate. Warren is the choice because she is slightly to the right of Sanders ( "I"m a capitalist" -- Warren ).

However, Biden has the black vote without which no dem can win, so perhaps he is the best choice. I'd like to hear other's opinions.

The Obama example doesn't really work here because obviously Obama had broad support with blacks. Biden's legacy with Obama gives him the advantage here.
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That's why my "dream team" is Biden/Warren. I think Warren might be on board with that if Biden agrees to one term with a Warren ticket in 2024.
 
A. There are people who think that Biden is going to win the nomination?

B. There are people who want Biden to win the nomination?

I think this country is sick of watching old rich white men argue about "the blacks." Of course Biden will perform well in polls until other candidates are household names. But once they are, Biden won't even be in the conversation. He would have been President if he had run against Trump, but that ship has sailed. People like myself were saying what a centrist Obama was as a President. He was extremely friendly to corporate America and he RENEWED the Patriot Act, putting us on the course to further dangerous and pointless conflicts. I don't expect the DNC or Democratic faithful to turn to Democratic Socialism, but as soon as Trump is out, we're going to see a huge sigh of relief from both sides and you need a leader to seize upon that moment and ensure that America renews its promise to hold itself to the highest possible standards. With both sides of the aisle seeing how dangerous one President can be, I think bipartisan efforts on infrastructure, foreign policy, environmental protection and immigration (among the hot button issues that we pretend matter) will finally start moving. Who spearheads that? Somebody very open minded, progressive and forward thinking. I haven't even made up my mind on that one, but I'd lean Warren ever-so-slightly at the moment.
 
JackA said:
How do you measure the likeliness? Polls show him trailing all the top candidates, Biden by as many as 12 points.
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Meaningless.

Trump has 40% of the country that will take a bullet for him. He won the last election with 46% of the vote.

Hard for me to believe that he won't get 6% of people who are not fanatics. 6% is very little.

Understand, most American have no clue what a piece of garbage he is. They vote based on sound bites and Trump truly is the best we have ever seen with sound/video bites.

I never hoped I was wrong so badly but making ole Joe or Cochise look like a fool will be easy for him to do. He already did it once to the Indian and Joe is just not shape enough for Donny.
 
3leftsdoo said:
Love Bernie & Andy & Tulsi, but only Michelle can deliver the White House back to the Democrats.
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I doubt it. The Michelle would just be a loser who does nothing.
 
MovingPictures said:
What kind of blue collar voters are we talking here? Guys that work construction? City labor hands? Car plants? That's a pretty diverse group of people and it's hard to figure out how they vote and why.

If we're just talking about people that work in coal mines and old mills, those people haven't voted for Democrats since ****ing Carter.
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It's the folks in those coal mining towns and old mills who actually need to vote democratic the most, they have the most to gain. The leadership of the GOP has poisoned their thinking that government is bad and taxes are bad and election after election the southern states are the poorest and controlled by republicans and yet it is these folks who believe the lie, work hard and you'll get ahead while they have the least chance of realizing that dream.
 
I'm hoping biden does not get the nomination. It's time for some younger blood in america. We are now in the information age so let's put people into power who recognize this fact. If we don't do something, as technology progresses more and more people will lose their jobs and be less equipped to get a new decent job. We'll be battling to get a job flipping burgers.
 
bongsaway said:
I'm hoping biden does not get the nomination. It's time for some younger blood in america. We are now in the information age so let's put people into power who recognize this fact. If we don't do something, as technology progresses more and more people will lose their jobs and be less equipped to get a new decent job. We'll be battling to get a job flipping burgers.
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I hope Warren will be polling the best just before the primary. If I had my way she would be president, but many of us old times are also practical. The old adage, 'Liberals vote with their heart, conservatives vote with their head', is so true. With Trump being so bizarre and dangerous, I believe that for this election in particular, we need to use our heads a little more...
 
noonereal said:
Meaningless.

Trump has 40% of the country that will take a bullet for him. He won the last election with 46% of the vote.

Hard for me to believe that he won't get 6% of people who are not fanatics. 6% is very little.

Understand, most American have no clue what a piece of garbage he is. They vote based on sound bites and Trump truly is the best we have ever seen with sound/video bites.

I never hoped I was wrong so badly but making ole Joe or Cochise look like a fool will be easy for him to do. He already did it once to the Indian and Joe is just not shape enough for Donny.
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He has maybe 25 percent of the country that will take a bullet for him on top of which he has looser support that crumbles a little and grows a little as time goes by. He's not the superforce some are afraid of.
 
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JackA said:
He has maybe 25 percent of the country that will take a bullet for him on top of which he has looser support that crumbles a little and grows a little as time goes by. He's not the superforce some are afraid of.
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You'll see

you should have learned last time around

(I still hope I am wrong)
 
MovingPictures said:
For all who think that Biden has the nomination in the bag because he's 12+ over Warren-Sanders, take a little look at history, specifically the 2007 primary.

In the CNN poll of October 14th, Clinton held a 29+ lead. People were ready to give the nomination to her and were ready to pop open the champagne - something Clinton does regularly. But two weeks later her lead was down to 19+ and by December it was down to 10+. When the year flipped over Obama was within single digits and by the first week of February, he had overtaken Clinton in the polls and he never looked back.


RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Democratic Presidential Nomination

Obama achieved that incredible drive by painting Clinton as a bad Democrat, who's policies harmed minorities, looked out for special interests, and who voted with Republicans on an unacceptably frequent basis. He made her connection to her husband a liability, which was brilliant in hindsight. I remember at the time pundits saying "he's attacking the Clinton legacy!" and how that would turn off the base, just like they say candidates are (ironically) attacking Obama's legacy when they confront Biden about his record.
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Biden is the electable candidate, so say the Democrat leaders of the swamp. Why do they support Biden when he clearly appears to be having some cognitive issues that draw into question his ability to be President? I think the answer is clear. The Democrat machine thinks he has a chance to beat Trump. They believe the rest of the field doesn't have such a good chance and so they want him to win the primary and subsequently win the election. He's a democrat political machine guy who will play the good ole boy game, not ruffle political feathers and follow the politics of the swamp. Here's the kicker. They will support Joe, force him to take a VP they approve of so that in the event he fails to complete his term, they have the replacement President they want. I'm not sure who they think that VP should be but I think a few of the other primary candidates may believe it might be them.
 
SoCal said:
I hope Warren will be polling the best just before the primary. If I had my way she would be president, but many of us old times are also practical. The old adage, 'Liberals vote with their heart, conservatives vote with their head', is so true. With Trump being so bizarre and dangerous, I believe that for this election in particular, we need to use our heads a little more...
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I disagree. To say conservatives vote with their heads would mean they have to pull them out of the sand. Most republicans vote to try to keep a democrat out of office. To me, most republicans are low information voters. They vote on their fears not their heads.
 
noonereal said:
this is nonesense

the entire loony left vote is going to Bernie and Warren

All the other candidates votes are likely Joe voters not socialist voters.
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Incompetent response.
 
swing_voter said:
If you want to make sure you beat Trump, you run Biden.

All the other democrat nominees can win, but the odds of them winning are less than Biden's.
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It's too soon to tell. After Iowa, we'll know a lot more.


The polls that show Biden best to win Trump, if the survey question was "who do you believe will beat Trump?" if that is the question, it's the wrong question and the result won't be accurate
The right question is to ask whom would they vote for in the general, if it were Biden Vs Trump, Sanders Vs Trump, etc

So, I"m wondering what the survey question was
 
swing_voter said:
If you want to make sure you beat Trump, you run Biden.

All the other democrat nominees can win, but the odds of them winning are less than Biden's.
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I am no fan of Biden, and think his run up to a general election will be a mine-field of gaffes and self-inflicted foot shooting. Something that Trump got away with due to his base supporters.
Liberals will not excuse him for such things.
I hope he doesn't get the nomination, but should he, I will hold my nose and vote for ol' Joe.
 
If there is a Swamp, Joe is a charter member.
 
bongsaway said:
I'm hoping biden does not get the nomination. It's time for some younger blood in america. We are now in the information age so let's put people into power who recognize this fact. If we don't do something, as technology progresses more and more people will lose their jobs and be less equipped to get a new decent job. We'll be battling to get a job flipping burgers.
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Quoted for agreeance.
A Joe Vs Trump general election would be great for ratings, I guess, but would be a disaster for the country.
 
bongsaway said:
I disagree. To say conservatives vote with their heads would mean they have to pull them out of the sand. Most republicans vote to try to keep a democrat out of office. To me, most republicans are low information voters. They vote on their fears not their heads.
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I agree with your opinion of most Republican voters, but the adage about using your head doesn't refer to their ability to think, if at all. Rather it originates from the way each group approaches politics and how they decide who to vote for.

Voting with your heart refers to voting for candidates and policies that represent your ultimate goals, more aspirational, sending a signal of your support of these particular policies.

Voting with your head refers to voting for candidates and policies that comes closest to yours and has the best chance of actually winning, i.e. more practical. The best example of this are the 80-90% of Republicans who support Trump. They consciously choose to ignore his racism, ignorance, childish behavior and attraction to our enemies in exchange for many judges, gutting health, welfare and environmental regulations, etc.

It comes down to character traits. Because conservative authoritarians are overwhelmingly one race, they think and act more in lockstep. Conservatives blindly accept their leaders claims about who they should fear and hate. While liberals are more independent, more diversified, originate from more places, come in more colors and tend to question authority and their leaders. Conservatives fall in line while liberals fall in love.

There's another adage that sums this up. Getting liberals to agree is like herding cats, getting conservatives to agree is like herding sheep...
 
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