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For those that think Biden is a shoo-in.

MovingPictures

MovingPictures

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For all who think that Biden has the nomination in the bag because he's 12+ over Warren-Sanders, take a little look at history, specifically the 2007 primary.

In the CNN poll of October 14th, Clinton held a 29+ lead. People were ready to give the nomination to her and were ready to pop open the champagne - something Clinton does regularly. But two weeks later her lead was down to 19+ and by December it was down to 10+. When the year flipped over Obama was within single digits and by the first week of February, he had overtaken Clinton in the polls and he never looked back.


RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Democratic Presidential Nomination

Obama achieved that incredible drive by painting Clinton as a bad Democrat, who's policies harmed minorities, looked out for special interests, and who voted with Republicans on an unacceptably frequent basis. He made her connection to her husband a liability, which was brilliant in hindsight. I remember at the time pundits saying "he's attacking the Clinton legacy!" and how that would turn off the base, just like they say candidates are (ironically) attacking Obama's legacy when they confront Biden about his record.
 
MovingPictures said:
For all who think that Biden has the nomination in the bag because he's 12+ over Warren-Sanders, take a little look at history, specifically the 2007 primary.

In the CNN poll of October 14th, Clinton held a 29+ lead. People were ready to give the nomination to her and were ready to pop open the champagne - something Clinton does regularly. But two weeks later her lead was down to 19+ and by December it was down to 10+. When the year flipped over Obama was within single digits and by the first week of February, he had overtaken Clinton in the polls and he never looked back.


RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Democratic Presidential Nomination

Obama achieved that incredible drive by painting Clinton as a bad Democrat, who's policies harmed minorities, looked out for special interests, and who voted with Republicans on an unacceptably frequent basis. He made her connection to her husband a liability, which was brilliant in hindsight. I remember at the time pundits saying "he's attacking the Clinton legacy!" and how that would turn off the base, just like they say candidates are (ironically) attacking Obama's legacy when they confront Biden about his record.
Click to expand...

Obama was against the least charismatic person in the history of politics. People(especially blue collar people) like Joe Biden.
 
MovingPictures said:
For all who think that Biden has the nomination in the bag because he's 12+ over Warren-Sanders, take a little look at history, specifically the 2007 primary.

In the CNN poll of October 14th, Clinton held a 29+ lead. People were ready to give the nomination to her and were ready to pop open the champagne - something Clinton does regularly. But two weeks later her lead was down to 19+ and by December it was down to 10+. When the year flipped over Obama was within single digits and by the first week of February, he had overtaken Clinton in the polls and he never looked back.


RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Democratic Presidential Nomination

Obama achieved that incredible drive by painting Clinton as a bad Democrat, who's policies harmed minorities, looked out for special interests, and who voted with Republicans on an unacceptably frequent basis. He made her connection to her husband a liability, which was brilliant in hindsight. I remember at the time pundits saying "he's attacking the Clinton legacy!" and how that would turn off the base, just like they say candidates are (ironically) attacking Obama's legacy when they confront Biden about his record.
Click to expand...


The progressive vote is split among several candidates, and that total is more than Biden's who has 90% of the moderate vote.

That leads me to understand the wiser choice for the nomination would be a progressive candidate. Warren is the choice because she is slightly to the right of Sanders ( "I"m a capitalist" -- Warren ).

However, Biden has the black vote without which no dem can win, so perhaps he is the best choice. I'd like to hear other's opinions.

The Obama example doesn't really work here because obviously Obama had broad support with blacks. Biden's legacy with Obama gives him the advantage here.
 
Trump is poised for re-election if Biden is the choice. Bernie, or Yang, are probably the best bets to beat Trump. Bernie because of his populist appeal; Yang because right now he is the only one willing to confront the upcoming apocalypse in the jobs sector.

Any employer worth their salt will automate because automation means permanent production. Humans get sick, build families, make mistakes, etc.

Yang will give us a chance against Skynet.
 
ajn678 said:
Obama was against the least charismatic person in the history of politics. People(especially blue collar people) like Joe Biden.
Click to expand...
It's got nothing to do with charisma. I'd actually say that Clinton has more of that than Biden, which is pretty bad.

What ended up sinking Clinton was minority groups abandoning her in droves, when they were educated on her record.

And the working class is far more diverse than you appreciate, but that's a different issue.
 
ajn678 said:
Obama was against the least charismatic person in the history of politics. People(especially blue collar people) like Joe Biden.
Click to expand...

Blue collar people do not want to drive (imported and/or built by robots?) battery powered, beer cans on roller skates past the rusting factories that used to employ them to compete with third world labor for the few remaining McJobs. Joe Biden was never a blue collar worker despite his assertions of having those "roots".

Joe Biden - Wikipedia
 
OscarLevant said:
The progressive vote is split among several candidates, and that total is more than Biden's who has 90% of the moderate vote.

That leads me to understand the wiser choice for the nomination would be a progressive candidate. Warren is the choice because she is slightly to the right of Sanders ( "I"m a capitalist" -- Warren ).

However, Biden has the black vote without which no dem can win, so perhaps he is the best choice. I'd like to hear other's opinions.

The Obama example doesn't really work here because obviously Obama had broad support with blacks. Biden's legacy with Obama gives him the advantage here.
Click to expand...
People thought that Clinton's connection to her husbands reign in the WH meant she was destined for the WH someday, but it didn't ever work out for her.

Just like we wouldn't have ever talked about Clinton had it not been for her husband, if Obama hadn't picked Biden to help with the white vote (which he could have done with any candidate), Biden would have fallen into ancient history fifteen years ago, and people would have a hard time remembering who he was.

That's a warning sign right there.
 
ttwtt78640 said:
Blue collar people do not want to drive (imported and/or built by robots?) battery powered, beer cans on roller skates past the rusting factories that used to employ them to compete with third world labor for the few remaining McJobs. Joe Biden was never a blue collar worker despite his assertions of having those "roots".

Joe Biden - Wikipedia
Click to expand...
What kind of blue collar voters are we talking here? Guys that work construction? City labor hands? Car plants? That's a pretty diverse group of people and it's hard to figure out how they vote and why.

If we're just talking about people that work in coal mines and old mills, those people haven't voted for Democrats since ****ing Carter.
 
MovingPictures said:
It's got nothing to do with charisma. I'd actually say that Clinton has more of that than Biden, which is pretty bad.

What ended up sinking Clinton was minority groups abandoning her in droves, when they were educated on her record.

And the working class is far more diverse than you appreciate, but that's a different issue.
Click to expand...

Nope, most low information voters(the vast majority of people that vote) only care about charisma. That is why Trump was elected. He said funny things and had no problem being loud.
 
MovingPictures said:
For all who think that Biden has the nomination in the bag because he's 12+ over Warren-Sanders, take a little look at history, specifically the 2007 primary.

In the CNN poll of October 14th, Clinton held a 29+ lead. People were ready to give the nomination to her and were ready to pop open the champagne - something Clinton does regularly. But two weeks later her lead was down to 19+ and by December it was down to 10+. When the year flipped over Obama was within single digits and by the first week of February, he had overtaken Clinton in the polls and he never looked back.


RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Democratic Presidential Nomination

Obama achieved that incredible drive by painting Clinton as a bad Democrat, who's policies harmed minorities, looked out for special interests, and who voted with Republicans on an unacceptably frequent basis. He made her connection to her husband a liability, which was brilliant in hindsight. I remember at the time pundits saying "he's attacking the Clinton legacy!" and how that would turn off the base, just like they say candidates are (ironically) attacking Obama's legacy when they confront Biden about his record.
Click to expand...



If you want to make sure you beat Trump, you run Biden.

All the other democrat nominees can win, but the odds of them winning are less than Biden's.
 
MovingPictures said:
What kind of blue collar voters are we talking here? Guys that work construction? City labor hands? Car plants? That's a pretty diverse group of people and it's hard to figure out how they vote and why.

If we're just talking about people that work in coal mines and old mills, those people haven't voted for Democrats since ****ing Carter.
Click to expand...

Those who shower after work - Joe Biden was never one of those (except while he was a school athlete). Joe Biden is "all hat and no cattle" as Texans tend to put it.
 
ttwtt78640 said:
Blue collar people do not want to drive (imported and/or built by robots?) battery powered, beer cans on roller skates past the rusting factories that used to employ them to compete with third world labor for the few remaining McJobs. Joe Biden was never a blue collar worker despite his assertions of having those "roots".

Joe Biden - Wikipedia
Click to expand...

He doesn't need to be a blue collar worker, he just needs to talk about their issues. Most politicians were rich growing up, that doesn't prevent them from connecting with people. I also never claimed that he was a blue collar worker.

Obama has lived a life of massive privilege but that didn't stop him from connecting with people in his own race that face problems that he never faced.
 
ajn678 said:
He doesn't need to be a blue collar worker, he just needs to talk about their issues. Most politicians were rich growing up, that doesn't prevent them from connecting with people. I also never claimed that he was a blue collar worker.

Obama has lived a life of massive privilege but that didn't stop him from connecting with people in his own race that face problems that he never faced.
Click to expand...

Which of Biden's issue positions are you asserting are shared by "blue collar" workers?

Joe Biden Views on 2020 Issues: A Voter’s Guide - POLITICO
 
MovingPictures said:
For all who think that Biden has the nomination in the bag because he's 12+ over Warren-Sanders, take a little look at history, specifically the 2007 primary.

In the CNN poll of October 14th, Clinton held a 29+ lead. People were ready to give the nomination to her and were ready to pop open the champagne - something Clinton does regularly. But two weeks later her lead was down to 19+ and by December it was down to 10+. When the year flipped over Obama was within single digits and by the first week of February, he had overtaken Clinton in the polls and he never looked back.


RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Democratic Presidential Nomination

Obama achieved that incredible drive by painting Clinton as a bad Democrat, who's policies harmed minorities, looked out for special interests, and who voted with Republicans on an unacceptably frequent basis. He made her connection to her husband a liability, which was brilliant in hindsight. I remember at the time pundits saying "he's attacking the Clinton legacy!" and how that would turn off the base, just like they say candidates are (ironically) attacking Obama's legacy when they confront Biden about his record.
Click to expand...

In 2008 Obama was able to win namely because he received 85% of the black vote. Hillary actually received move overall votes in the Democratic Primaries 17,822,145 to Obama's 17, 535,438. 2016 was the reverse in the Democratic Primaries, Hillary won approximately 80% of the black vote. Sanders actually held a slim margin over Hillary among white Democratic primary voters.

Today, Biden's strength is the black vote. 37% of blacks support him, 18% Sanders, 10% Harris and 8% Warren. Booker and O'Rourke haves 6% each of blacks supporting him. Warren on the other hand as 25% of all white Democrats supporting her. We're so far out these numbers mean little come next year. But it does show the racial divide that existed in 2008 and 2012 among Democratic black and white voters.

68% of blacks have a favorable view of Biden vs 34% of white Democrats. It's too early to tell if we'll have the racial divide we had in 2008 and 2016. But I would suggest keeping an eye on it. Blacks make up approximately a third of the Democratic Primary vote with Hispanics a fifth. Winning 80% of the black vote propelled both Obama and Clinton to the nomination in 2008 and 2016.
 
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Biden has so much negative baggage. It's hard to believe he would have a chance against Trump. Biden has flopped on so many issues and many of his claimed past glories are false. Obama basically counseled him not to run and even now won't endorse him. Biden's continuing gauffs have his staff recomminding closeting him. For the good of the country, Biden needs to be the nominee in order to secure a Trump victory.
 
Perotista said:
In 2008 Obama was able to win namely because he received 85% of the black vote. Hillary actually received move overall votes in the Democratic Primaries 17,822,145 to Obama's 17, 535,438. 2016 was the reverse in the Democratic Primaries, Hillary won approximately 80% of the black vote. Sanders actually held a slim margin over Hillary among white Democratic primary voters.

Today, Biden's strength is the black vote. 37% of blacks support him, 18% Sanders, 10% Harris and 8% Warren. Booker and O'Rourke haves 6% each of blacks supporting him. Warren on the other hand as 25% of all white Democrats supporting her. We're so far out these numbers mean little come next year. But it does show the racial divide that existed in 2008 and 2012 among Democratic black and white voters.

68% of blacks have a favorable view of Biden vs 34% of white Democrats. It's too early to tell if we'll have the racial divide we had in 2008 and 2016. But I would suggest keeping an eye on it. Blacks make up approximately a third of the Democratic Primary vote with Hispanics a fifth. Winning 80% of the black vote propelled both Obama and Clinton to the nomination in 2008 and 2016.
Click to expand...
Correct, but it's all about delegates, just as the general is all about the the electoral college.

Clinton blew runaway leads that would've secured victory both times.
 
ajn678 said:
Four of the five first positions effect blue collar workers greatly.
Click to expand...

Hmm... that seems to be the opposite of "law and order" Joe's stand on the proper treatment of "predators" he had previously stated that he "strongly believed in". The new 'woke" Joe Biden is not anything like the old "blue colar" Joe Biden. Federal criminal law affects mostly convicted federal criminals - not mostly blue collar workers.
 
swing_voter said:
If you want to make sure you beat Trump, you run Biden.

All the other democrat nominees can win, but the odds of them winning are less than Biden's.
Click to expand...
We heard the same thing about Clinton. She was supposedly going to win all kinds of pink states and it was just a matter of how big she would win. I remember Kerry was supposed to succeed where Gore failed, because of his military background, then failing miserably in Ohio and Florida, and doing worse.

That's what happens when you base your entire political strategy on state polls from over a year out from the election.
 
Obama was articulate, focused and likable. He had a sense of humor and substance. He also had an incredible campaign organization. They reached out to people face to face on a personal level and stayed with them holding their hands right into the voting booth. I don't think any candidate on either side has that this time around. The Democratic field is broad, but not strong in terms of likability. Joe is likable. He sticks his foot in his mouth but people sympathize with him. As a Democrat, I think all of the candidates have good qualities but Biden has the best chance of defeating Trump, and the best qualities to lead if elected. Plus he is not black or a woman. I'm sad to say that makes a difference in this country at this time.
 
swing_voter said:
If you want to make sure you beat Trump, you run Biden.

All the other democrat nominees can win, but the odds of them winning are less than Biden's.
Click to expand...

Yep, Biden can’t lose to Trump. He’s the safest bet to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
SonOfDaedalus said:
Biden ... He’s the safest bet to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
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I am curious as to why... Is this just based on current polls or there is some reason behind it? What makes Biden more likely to win over Trump? E.g. fundamentally, what makes him be more liked by the blacks, if that's what gives him the edge. Is it just association with Obama or anything else?
 
Obscurity said:
Trump is poised for re-election if Biden is the choice. Bernie, or Yang, are probably the best bets to beat Trump. Bernie because of his populist appeal; Yang because right now he is the only one willing to confront the upcoming apocalypse in the jobs sector.

Any employer worth their salt will automate because automation means permanent production. Humans get sick, build families, make mistakes, etc.

Yang will give us a chance against Skynet.
Click to expand...

Trump is poised to fall on his face. Any of the leading Democrats could defeat him. Biden may be the riskiest, however. He's shown signs of fragility, whether its age or nerves or something else. He will lose the nomination if he keeps stumbling.
 
OscarLevant said:
The progressive vote is split among several candidates, and that total is more than Biden's who has 90% of the moderate vote.

That leads me to understand the wiser choice for the nomination would be a progressive candidate. Warren is the choice because she is slightly to the right of Sanders ( "I"m a capitalist" -- Warren )...
Click to expand...

I understand she walked this back and would allow them, but the damage has been done. We may know difference, but tens (hundreds?) of millions of ad dollars will ensure that she'll never be looked on as a strong capitalist again. Great policies, but we should get progressive in 24', not 20'.

"Sen. Elizabeth Warren used Wednesday night's Democratic debate to come out unequivocally for a "Medicare for All" plan that would abolish private health insurers..."

...However, Biden has the black vote without which no dem can win, so perhaps he is the best choice. I'd like to hear other's opinions.

The Obama example doesn't really work here because obviously Obama had broad support with blacks. Biden's legacy with Obama gives him the advantage here...
Click to expand...

No Democratic candidate can win without the full support of black Americans, if their vote is split we lose. Unless he melts down or blows it, Biden has the best chance of keeping them together.

Another factor is the reliability of two major groups. History proves that middle-aged and older voters are much more reliable than the young. If Biden loses, they'll still come out and vote for whoever wins. If Biden wins the nomination, the young who want aspirational, progressive change yesterday, won't be nearly as committed to come out and vote for Biden...
 
swing_voter said:
If you want to make sure you beat Trump, you run Biden.

All the other democrat nominees can win, but the odds of them winning are less than Biden's.
Click to expand...

I don't give a **** what time of the day he takes a shower, or how deep his blue collar roots are, he's polling the best now and unless something dramatic happens, he's likely to be polling the best when the Democrats vote in their primary.

So do you want to ignore the current polls because they got it wrong in 16', or is it your gut telling you that Biden would lose?...
 
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