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I am voting for Bernie but can't stand some of Bernies supporters.

Had some time on lunch so decided to check the numbers; going by this article: The Bernie voters who defected to Trump, explained by a political scientist - Vox

Sanders to Trump converts were 51k in Wisconsin, 47k in Michigan, 116k in Pennsylvania; let's say that 10% of Strong Dem Bernie defectors is the case for all of them; that gives us 21,400 turncoat voters; this is markedly short of the 80k needed (or assuming they all voted for Clinton instead, 40k);

Meanwhile the Trump win margin for each of these states: WI: 22k, MI: 10k, PA: 44k; the number of turncoats for each state translates into 5.1k for WI, 4.7k for MI and 11.6k PA per the 10% proportion above. Even doubling these doesn't equal or surpass the margin, though MI comes pretty close.

In general, I don't think the Bernie turncoat argument is convincing when one acknowledges those who had no real or strong allegiance to the Dem party.

You're assuming that having no real or strong allegiance to the Dem party would automatically result in a vote for Trump. Not necessarily. A lot of people even among Republicans, didn't like Trump, remember the Never Trumpers? As you realized yourself, it's not just a question of the full number, but half that number, because when you flip a vote, you subtract one from Hillary and add one for Trump.

So, one would need 11K non-betrayers in Wisconsin, 5K in Michigan, and 22K in Pennsylvannia to deliver the victory to Clinton.
Compare that to 51K, 47K, and 116K. So, roughly, not checking the exact numbers but looking at order of magniture, it's about 20% of betrayers in Wisconsin, 10% in Michigan, and less than 20% in Pennsylvania. I mean, that's pretty darn important! It means that even if we discount between 80 and 90% of these defectors as people who wouldn't otherwise have voted for Clinton anyway (which I find unlikely given that Trump had HUGE rejection numbers, too), these Bernie or Busters have still delivered the victory to Trump.

If anything, your post is strong evidence that people who flipped from Bernie to Trump delivered the victory to Trump and were one of the most important factors in securing Trump's victory.

Actually from now on I'll use this information anytime someone challenges my long-term stance here, that these idiotic Bernie or Busters profoundly damaged America and imposed Trump on us.

It's not for nothing that I experience the utmost contempt for them, and also for their idiotic leader, the opportunistic and hypocritical spoiler. Oh, he's so interested in diffusing his social democracy ideals in America... then he goes and ensures that the American president is someone who utterly and thoroughly and lastingly destroys all possible progress in the direction of those ideals.

Bravo, Bernie Sanders! Bravo, Sanders fans! [insert extreme sarcasm here]

Good job! You got the president that you deserve: one Donald John Trump.

--------

Regarding you, though, you seem smart and you went to the trouble of checking data. I respect you.

But I don't respect all those turncoats who stupidly imposed Trump on all of us and on the world at large, also ensuring a generation-long conservative Supreme Court.
 
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You're assuming that having no real or strong allegiance to the Dem party would automatically result in a vote for Trump. Not necessarily. A lot of people even among Republicans, didn't like Trump, remember the Never Trumpers? As you realized yourself, it's not just a question of the full number, but half that number, because when you flip a vote, you subtract one from Hillary and add one for Trump.

So, one would need 11K non-betrayers in Wisconsin, 5K in Michigan, and 22K in Pennsylvannia to deliver the victory to Clinton.
Compare that to 51K, 47K, and 116K. So, roughly, not checking the exact numbers but looking at order of magniture, it's about 20% of betrayers in Wisconsin, 10% in Michigan, and less than 20% in Pennsylvania. I mean, that's pretty darn important! It means that even if we discount between 80 and 90% of these defectors as people who wouldn't otherwise have voted for Clinton anyway (which I find unlikely given that Trump had HUGE rejection numbers, too), these Bernie or Busters have still delivered the victory to Trump.

If anything, your post is strong evidence that people who flipped from Bernie to Trump delivered the victory to Trump and were one of the most important factors in securing Trump's victory.

Actually from now on I'll use this information anytime someone challenges my long-term stance here, that these idiotic Bernie or Busters profoundly damaged America and imposed Trump on us.

It's not for nothing that I experience the utmost contempt for them, and also for their idiotic leader, the opportunistic and hypocritical spoiler. Oh, he's so interested in diffusing his social democracy ideals in America... then he goes and ensures that the American president is someone who utterly and thoroughly and lastingly destroys all possible progress in the direction of those ideals.

Bravo, Bernie Sanders! Bravo, Sanders fans! [insert extreme sarcasm here]

Good job! You got the president that you deserve: one Donald John Trump.

--------

Regarding you, though, you seem smart and you went to the trouble of checking data. I respect you.

But I don't respect all those turncoats who stupidly imposed Trump on all of us and on the world at large, also ensuring a generation-long conservative Supreme Court.

While I appreciate the compliment, I'm not sure how one looks at my post and concludes that actual defectors, i.e. people who are actually strongly aligned with the party, which were roughly 10% of all Bernie to Trump voters per the linked article, are responsible. The math simply doesn't support that conclusion; remember that effectively doubling the defector count for each of these states (in otherwords, very generously assuming every last one of them would have voted for Hillary instead if not for Bernie) is not adequate; they did not achieve the numbers required. (5.1k vs 11k, 4.7k vs 5k and 11.6k vs 22k).

As to the other 90%, they don't really have the ties to the Dem party to be seriously considered lost votes or turncoats; if anything Bernie probably brought them closer rather than further from the party despite the way they voted in the end. Indeed, in general, there is a very real and distinct possibility that if Bernie never ran, endorsed and worked his ass off for Hillary, channeling his following, much of it new and external to the party, into her candidacy, the numbers could have ultimately came out even uglier for her.
 
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..... if anything Bernie probably brought them closer rather than further from the party despite the way they voted in the end. Indeed, in general, there is a very real and distinct possibility that if Bernie never ran, endorsed and worked his ass off for Hillary, channeling his following, much of it new and external to the party, into her candidacy, the numbers could have ultimately came out even uglier for her.


That's how it is with me. I moved closer. Didn't move all the way to. But moved closer. Except for Hillary, I voted straight Democrat in 2016 ... and they all lost ... because Democrats spent the preceding 6 years watching Republicans turn Wisconsin red and doing nothing to stop it. I thought a lot about voting for Hillary but in the end didn't since my husband hated her so much and it seemed disloyal to vote for someone he hated so.

Thanks to seeing how horrible Trump is -- and how easily Republican legislators fall in line with him out of fear of being primaried -- I will now go all in and vote straight Democrat for the foreseeable future. But Bernie helped bring me to this point. Trump pushed me the rest of the way.
 
While I appreciate the compliment, I'm not sure how one looks at my post and concludes that actual defectors, i.e. people who are actually strongly aligned with the party, which were roughly 10% of all Bernie to Trump voters per the linked article, are responsible. The math simply doesn't support that conclusion; remember that effectively doubling the defector count for each of these states (in otherwords, very generously assuming every last one of them would have voted for Hillary instead if not for Bernie) is not adequate; they did not achieve the numbers required. (5.1k vs 11k, 4.7k vs 5k and 11.6k vs 22k).

As to the other 90%, they don't really have the ties to the Dem party to be seriously considered lost votes or turncoats; if anything Bernie probably brought them closer rather than further from the party despite the way they voted in the end. Indeed, in general, there is a very real and distinct possibility that if Bernie never ran, endorsed and worked his ass off for Hillary, channeling his following, much of it new and external to the party, into her candidacy, the numbers could have ultimately came out even uglier for her.

I don't think so. With Trump's 50% rejection rate, way more of the Bernie defectors would have voted for the lesser evil, Clinton, if Bernie had never surfaced. Like I said, if one in five of these, about 20%, were votes that could have been Clinton's (a very likely possibility) then Trump wouldn't be the POTUS. This arbitrary number of 10%, for me, was picked by Bernie apologists.

Yes, Bernie played spoiler, and his supporters shot themselves in the foot by enabling Trump's victory.
 
I don't think so. With Trump's 50% rejection rate, way more of the Bernie defectors would have voted for the lesser evil, Clinton, if Bernie had never surfaced. Like I said, if one in five of these, about 20%, were votes that could have been Clinton's (a very likely possibility) then Trump wouldn't be the POTUS. This arbitrary number of 10%, for me, was picked by Bernie apologists.

Yes, Bernie played spoiler, and his supporters shot themselves in the foot by enabling Trump's victory.

The problem is there isn't really the evidence to support your assertion.

You can certainly theorize about what if, but I don't see how you can, with any kind of meaningful certainty, come away completely assured that Clinton being slightly more palatable than Trump would have surely resulted in her victory in the event that Sanders never ran, and this despite Sander's clear demonstrable efforts and contributions in support of Hillary's campaign, and his factual ability to bring people into the Dem fold that otherwise would never have even considered aligning themselves with the party.
 
I could say this about literally anything that I like, or support. There are some people who have the right idea, but for the wrong reasons, or got to that position in a really weird way. Not everyone who agrees with you on some things will agree with you on everything. This is real life, not some cult where everyone thinks and behaves the same.

It's sad seeing all the same, debunked Bernie smears in here. No one has any interest in educating themselves, they just want to be partisan hacks.
 
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