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Had some time on lunch so decided to check the numbers; going by this article: The Bernie voters who defected to Trump, explained by a political scientist - Vox
Sanders to Trump converts were 51k in Wisconsin, 47k in Michigan, 116k in Pennsylvania; let's say that 10% of Strong Dem Bernie defectors is the case for all of them; that gives us 21,400 turncoat voters; this is markedly short of the 80k needed (or assuming they all voted for Clinton instead, 40k);
Meanwhile the Trump win margin for each of these states: WI: 22k, MI: 10k, PA: 44k; the number of turncoats for each state translates into 5.1k for WI, 4.7k for MI and 11.6k PA per the 10% proportion above. Even doubling these doesn't equal or surpass the margin, though MI comes pretty close.
In general, I don't think the Bernie turncoat argument is convincing when one acknowledges those who had no real or strong allegiance to the Dem party.
You're assuming that having no real or strong allegiance to the Dem party would automatically result in a vote for Trump. Not necessarily. A lot of people even among Republicans, didn't like Trump, remember the Never Trumpers? As you realized yourself, it's not just a question of the full number, but half that number, because when you flip a vote, you subtract one from Hillary and add one for Trump.
So, one would need 11K non-betrayers in Wisconsin, 5K in Michigan, and 22K in Pennsylvannia to deliver the victory to Clinton.
Compare that to 51K, 47K, and 116K. So, roughly, not checking the exact numbers but looking at order of magniture, it's about 20% of betrayers in Wisconsin, 10% in Michigan, and less than 20% in Pennsylvania. I mean, that's pretty darn important! It means that even if we discount between 80 and 90% of these defectors as people who wouldn't otherwise have voted for Clinton anyway (which I find unlikely given that Trump had HUGE rejection numbers, too), these Bernie or Busters have still delivered the victory to Trump.
If anything, your post is strong evidence that people who flipped from Bernie to Trump delivered the victory to Trump and were one of the most important factors in securing Trump's victory.
Actually from now on I'll use this information anytime someone challenges my long-term stance here, that these idiotic Bernie or Busters profoundly damaged America and imposed Trump on us.
It's not for nothing that I experience the utmost contempt for them, and also for their idiotic leader, the opportunistic and hypocritical spoiler. Oh, he's so interested in diffusing his social democracy ideals in America... then he goes and ensures that the American president is someone who utterly and thoroughly and lastingly destroys all possible progress in the direction of those ideals.
Bravo, Bernie Sanders! Bravo, Sanders fans! [insert extreme sarcasm here]
Good job! You got the president that you deserve: one Donald John Trump.
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Regarding you, though, you seem smart and you went to the trouble of checking data. I respect you.
But I don't respect all those turncoats who stupidly imposed Trump on all of us and on the world at large, also ensuring a generation-long conservative Supreme Court.
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