Mark my words, trump's support will evaporate and shock most when it does

Grandpappy said:

Give it up, guys. All the BS is getting tired and boring, Tell me what the Dems will do to make America greater.

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They dug America out from the complete economic and geopolitical mess left after 8 years of Bush Jr. It was a serious train wreck. Clean up was a Herculean effort, especially given that the GOP was sabotaging and trolling every move. But it was just slowly starting to clean up ....

When you gave us Trump. He’s like the teenager throwing the neighborhood keg party when the parents are away. The house is getting completely trashed.

This may take much longer to clean up now. It’s a much bigger disaster. It’s catastrophic. The deficit is exploding at record levels, out political alliances are frayed, our rivals are emboldened. The fractures and divisions in American society have deepened. Some of these stains on the carpet are unlikely to ever come out- like the damage to our relationships with our long time allies, the trust so much of the world had in our values, character, and integrity as a leader.

But that’s OK. It’s like cleaning up after an irresponsible and spoiled rotten kid. We will keep cleaning up as best we can.

Craig234 said:

Sometimes, you get responses that are just tedious from people who do not understand the post. This is one. I did not quote most, but obviously - to most - I'm not talking about the typical evaporation of support presidents see.



The phrase "a mile wide and an inch deep" means nothing to you. I might as well have posted in Latin for all you understood it. Ironically, you're unwittingly right when you point at Democrats' response to trump as a factor. Which is a reason WHY the support is shallow, as it's not based on something more substantive about trump; you're making my point. But you get it wrong when you suggest Democrats' reaction is wrong.

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I go by the numbers and state what the numbers say. Very favorable or very unfavorable are strong support or strongly against. It's not thin support, somewhat favorable is thin support. Right now Trump has a lost of solid supporters within the GOP. Could that increase in solid support be caused by what they see as the persecution complex coming from the Democrats? I think so, apparently you don't.

The numbers stand. I don't make them up, I just look at them and reported on them. Could I be wrong about the persecution complex, sure I could. That seemed like a valid reason to me why once leery GOP'ers would become solid, very favorable's of Trump over the last 2 1/2 years.

If you have another suggestion, I'd be glad to hear it. You stated that Trump would lose support once he left office, I agreed with you and pointed out the fact that has happened to every president. So you don't like the latter. You view it as tedious, but is it wrong?

If you think my posts or responses are tedious, you don't have to answer them. The title of your thread interested me, that I thought I'd add my two cents. It is an interesting topic. Now you always have the option if you don't like what numbers says of putting me on ignore. Then I wouldn't be so tedious. But the numbers tell a very interesting, fact base story that in itself brings up additions questions and could show trends that could be very relevant to 2020. If one is willing to take them into consideration and perhaps do what one can if the trend is going against the desired results one wants. Of course, another option is to completely ignore them. Maybe I should have just ignored your reply.

Craig234 said:

I agree with that.

There are a lot of cult members, but not all trump supporters are cultists. For example, his friend and brief communications director, 'Mooch', I think is a trump supporter but not a cultist.

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I know I will probably regret this...but what is YOUR criteria for being a "cult" member and how do YOU make that decision about people you have never met or had an actual conversation with?

Jay59 said:

Most Universities are quite liberal. Columbia even more than most.

In any event, this is not a scholarly paper. It's an opinion piece about the new Director of EPA. Use of phrases like climate-denier shreds any possibility of impartiality. It's an attack piece.

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That's the best you have, saying it's an attack piece?
Republicans are on record attacking Pruitt, are they crypto-commies, too?

uptower said:

'Most' of the country is not 42%. And that number is just polling of 'likely' voters. In real terms he has a much lower support. However you can take comfort in the fact a lot of them may not vote (or may be suppressed), so in an election he gets a higher number than his real base. But he doesn't get any more votes in real numbers than he did last time, when he lost by 3 million in the popular vote. Expect a wider spread this time - at least 5 million - whether he manages to scrape together a win in the EC or not.

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In real terms 42% is his support, which is the point. You can take comfort in the likelihood that they will all vote. It's good that you are thinking in terms of suppressing the Trump vote, because they have always tried to suppress the Trump poll numbers. They have effectively boiled out everything but the rock solid core. They are also pissed off and looking for some payback.

In the general, the Democrats will not be running Hillary Clinton again. In one significant way, that's good for them. Hillary is a vampire and everyone knows it. However, she was backed by the best funded, best run machine the party ever produced. The next candidate will not have that mountain to stand on. The Democrats have failed dismally in the last three years while Trump has succeeded spectacularly. It will not be pretty. I suspect that is why Joe Biden appears to be the sacrificial lamb of choice, like Fritz Mondale in 1964, or Bob Dole in 1996.

Checkerboard Strangler said:

That's the best you have, saying it's an attack piece?
Republicans are on record attacking Pruitt, are they crypto-commies, too?

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It's enough and it is not like your mind is not already made up.

You keep coming up with weird things. Is crypto-commie a reference to mythical Russian hacking of the election?

Jay59 said:

It's enough and it is not like your mind is not already made up.

You keep coming up with weird things. Is crypto-commie a reference to mythical Russian hacking of the election?

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No, it's a reaction your knee-jerk reactionary red-baiting.

Jay59 said:

In real terms 42% is his support, which is the point. You can take comfort in the likelihood that they will all vote. It's good that you are thinking in terms of suppressing the Trump vote, because they have always tried to suppress the Trump poll numbers. They have effectively boiled out everything but the rock solid core. They are also pissed off and looking for some payback.

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That's very true, at least GOP voters bother to turn out. They're also far less likely to be turned away at the polls. There's no way to 'suppress' that vote. His base will be out in droves and the swing voters will either be disillusioned or swing the other way like they did in 2016. If he does pick up just the right number of swing votes in just the right county, he can win the EC again, but only at a loss of millions in the popular vote.

uptower said:

That's very true, at least GOP voters bother to turn out. They're also far less likely to be turned away at the polls. There's no way to 'suppress' that vote. His base will be out in droves and the swing voters will either be disillusioned or swing the other way like they did in 2016. If he does pick up just the right number of swing votes in just the right county, he can win the EC again, but only at a loss of millions in the popular vote.

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I think you misunderstand the swing voters. They are the ones the Democrats have been systematically insulting.

Jay59 said:

I think you misunderstand the swing voters. They are the ones the Democrats have been systematically insulting.

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And I think Republicans - or Trump cultists - take it for granted if someone votes for them once, they've been successfully 'turned'.

uptower said:

And I think Republicans - or Trump cultists - take it for granted if someone votes for them once, they've been successfully 'turned'.

Spoiler

They swing, it's not a reference to their sex lives

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You swing and miss. Strike one.

Would you like to buy a clue?

Perotista said:

I go by the numbers and state what the numbers say. Very favorable or very unfavorable are strong support or strongly against. It's not thin support, somewhat favorable is thin support. Right now Trump has a lost of solid supporters within the GOP. Could that increase in solid support be caused by what they see as the persecution complex coming from the Democrats? I think so, apparently you don't.

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That's all I read of your post, because you're just obnoxious (while being clueless). You don't understand the idea of intense 'support' that can evaporate very quickly. I could explain, use analogies, but I don't really care that you get it at this point. So have a good day.

Jay59 said:

You swing and miss. Strike one.

Would you like to buy a clue?

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Seriously though they didn't like Clinton, we get that. a lot liked Bernie but that option was off the table. A lot thought they could ignore Trump's bigotry as a minor thing or that his promises such as a better healthcare plan or lower taxes for everyone would actually come true. His base might forgive him for broken promises, but swing voters don't. If they were that forgiving they would have supported Clinton. If they were true fellow travelers to Trump they wouldn't have gone for Obama twice.

They swing. It's in the name. They can go either way. No candidate should be able to truly count on their support and an underperforming incumbent has more to fear than most.

uptower said:

Seriously though they didn't like Clinton, we get that. a lot liked Bernie but that option was off the table. A lot thought they could ignore Trump's bigotry as a minor thing or that his promises such as a better healthcare plan or lower taxes for everyone would actually come true. His base might forgive him for broken promises, but swing voters don't. If they were that forgiving they would have supported Clinton. If they were true fellow travelers to Trump they wouldn't have gone for Obama twice.

They swing. It's in the name. They can go either way. No candidate should be able to truly count on their support and an underperforming incumbent has more to fear than most.

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Several issues. Trump's bigotry is a myth and always was. Only true believers cannot see that.

Trump promised to repeal and replace ACA. He managed to kill the most hated part. Not a HR but not a broken promise.
He promised tax reform--Done.
He promised a good economy and more jobs-- Done.
He promised new trade deals--Done.
He promised to build a wall--in progress--and have Mexico pay for--Done.
He promised to Make America Great Again--Done.
No one needs to forgive him for broken promises because he delivered.

I vote for Obama, so there is that.

Jay59 said:

I vote for Obama, so there is that.

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That's living proof then that people can change their party preference over time. You may be a swing voter. And if say someone dangles free education and healthcare in front of other swing voters, they might just bite.

Otherwise I do not share the view that Trump has delivered on most of his promises. That would rely on highly subjective interpretations of both the latter and spirit of the promises, the mechanisms by which they have been addressed and the definition of the word 'achieved'. Most of those on the list either cannot be verified (MAGA - how to define 'great'?) or are demonstrable failures: the non-existent wall, ACA replacement, a 'good economy,' tax 'reform' and the quality of the jobs gained.

uptower said:

That's living proof then that people can change their party preference over time. You may be a swing voter. And if say someone dangles free education and healthcare in front of other swing voters, they might just bite.

Otherwise I do not share the view that Trump has delivered on most of his promises. That would rely on highly subjective interpretations of both the latter and spirit of the promises, the mechanisms by which they have been addressed and the definition of the word 'achieved'. Most of those on the list either cannot be verified (MAGA - how to define 'great'?) or are demonstrable failures: the non-existent wall, ACA replacement, a 'good economy,' tax 'reform' and the quality of the jobs gained.

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If you want to define great in MAGA, it's easy. A country you can feel proud to call your home. Of all the promises, this one was delivered most.

Demonstrable failures my ass. Demonstrable successes. Not just more jobs, better jobs with better pay. There is a wall of Mexican troops holding back the tide, and Mexico is paying for it. A good economy. More trade. Success. Same with foreign policy. No one calls Trump to heel.

Jay59 said:

No one calls Trump to heel.

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Well yeah, Putin does. Swing voters won't much appreciate that.

As for MAGA: plenty of people were already proud of America and thought it was great. Not flawless, there's no such thing, but 'great' in the ways you just described. Now many of his most rabid base think it's even 'greater' because they get a leader who openly hates on minorities and women and immigrants and foreigners, but that doesn't actually do anything constructive except salve their bruised macho egos. Swing voters were never swayed by that either.

Craig234 said:

Bernie Sanders has a lot more to offer the country than every Republican in Congress combined.

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He's offered the country pure and classic socialism and history has shown, that's not good. I understand some may want it, but most do not.

uptower said:

Well yeah, Putin does. Swing voters won't much appreciate that.

As for MAGA: plenty of people were already proud of America and thought it was great. Not flawless, there's no such thing, but 'great' in the ways you just described. Now many of his most rabid base think it's even 'greater' because they get a leader who openly hates on minorities and women and immigrants and foreigners, but that doesn't actually do anything constructive except salve their bruised macho egos. Swing voters were never swayed by that either.

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Bull****. Putin tried it in Syria and got slapped down hard. Trump bows to no one, not Putin, not Xi, not CNN, no one.

You should remember that President Obama spent eight years preparing everyone for the new normal, fewer jobs, more part time work, less growth. When Trump came in saying that it was OK to be proud and stand up for being American, it was new and different. For three year, you and others like you have heaped scorn on him and insulted anyone that voted for him and a lot of people who didn't. Trump is stronger and you have egg on your face.

That does appeal to swing voters

Jay59 said:

Bull****. Putin tried it in Syria and got slapped down hard. Trump bows to no one, not Putin, not Xi, not CNN, no one.

You should remember that President Obama spent eight years preparing everyone for the new normal, fewer jobs, more part time work, less growth. When Trump came in saying that it was OK to be proud and stand up for being American, it was new and different. For three year, you and others like you have heaped scorn on him and insulted anyone that voted for him and a lot of people who didn't. Trump is stronger and you have egg on your face.

That does appeal to swing voters

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Leave the personal attacks out of it. This is not about 'you and me'.

Again that is not the position of a swing voter. They never cared for this MAGA business. Swing voters take elections issue by issue and evaluate whether they think a candidate will deliver at the time. 2018 should be a good indicator of where Trump stands on his promises.

MorrisDay said:

He's offered the country pure and classic socialism and history has shown, that's not good. I understand some may want it, but most do not.

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No, he has not offered that, and a large majority of the country supports his policies. You need to get out of your right-wing bubble and correct the facts you have wrong.

uptower said:

Leave the personal attacks out of it. This is not about 'you and me'.

Again that is not the position of a swing voter. They never cared for this MAGA business. Swing voters take elections issue by issue and evaluate whether they think a candidate will deliver at the time. 2018 should be a good indicator of where Trump stands on his promises.

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That is exactly what the swing voter cares about, pride. They care a lot about that and they did not like having Barack Obama apologizing around the world. But, he was the Messiah, so no one was allowed to criticize until the debate earlier in the month. Swing voters also did not like being told to shut the hell up or be branded racist. Now that Obama is gone, that tactic is not working as well.

Simon W. Moon said:

To be fair, there are Trumpco customers here on this forum who believe that trump is a politician who does not lie.
Imho, those folks count as cult members.
How else could you abandon common sense about politicians and their lies?

Now, there are also Trump enablers and a whole handful of other folks who're more-or-less roughly "pro-trump" who do not fit the category of cult members.

But the cult members do exist.
The fact that some folks offer some support for Trump w/o belonging to the cult does not mean that the cult members do not exist.

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You'd actually need to supply evidence for this whole "believes that Trump is a politician who does not lie" claim.

Because we all know he lies, he's politician, and the president no less. That's basically part of the job description.

Jay59 said:

That is exactly what the swing voter cares about, pride. They care a lot about that and they did not like having Barack Obama apologizing around the world. But, he was the Messiah, so no one was allowed to criticize until the debate earlier in the month. Swing voters also did not like being told to shut the hell up or be branded racist. Now that Obama is gone, that tactic is not working as well.

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No that's pretty much boilerplate hard core Republican rhetoric.

The swing voters actually have issues to worry about not feelings: usually economic ones such as "Do I have it better under this guy or the next/last one?" They will look at Trump's record and assess what it has done for their bottom line and if they're happy probably vote for him again. They may consider other issues such as whether or not his bigotry is real, an issue, or has done serious harm, but that also transcends mere feelings after a point. They don't buy the line that Obama=weak or they wouldn't have voted him in, twice. They would have ditched him in 2012.

uptower said:

No that's pretty much boilerplate hard core Republican rhetoric.

The swing voters actually have issues to worry about not feelings: usually economic ones such as "Do I have it better under this guy or the next/last one?" They will look at Trump's record and assess what it has done for their bottom line and if they're happy probably vote for him again. They may consider other issues such as whether or not his bigotry is real, an issue, or has done serious harm, but that also transcends mere feelings after a point. They don't buy the line that Obama=weak or they wouldn't have voted him in, twice. They would have ditched him in 2012.

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Interesting, since I have very little contact with such. Where did you find it?

I don't give New York magazine much credence. They are out to discredit Trump by fair means or foul. When NYT came out with an article indicating Trump's base had grown, that was real news. NYM is just spin.

There is good reason to believe that a significant number did ditch Obama in 2012. As an incumbent, with decent economy, he won by less than the home field advantage, against Mitt Romney no less. If Romney had better GotV he might have made a real run at it. Instead, Obama's inner city machines controlled key states like Ohio, Virginia and Pennsylvania. The popular margin was only 4.7 million, with NY and Cal alone being more than that. In 2016, Trump was only 1% closer, but swung 6 states and over 160 EV of margin.