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So Trump is going to make China bend eh?

Luckyone

Luckyone

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China Hits Back at Trump by Weakening Yuan, Halting Crop Imports

China responded to Donald Trump’s tariff threat with another escalation of the trade war on Monday, letting the yuan tumble to the weakest level in more than a decade and asking state-owned companies to suspend imports of U.S. agricultural products.

The moves are likely to further antagonize Trump, who has criticized Beijing for managing its currency unfairly and failing to keep promises to buy more U.S. crops

Stocks and emerging-market currencies sank on concern a prolonged conflict between the superpowers will weigh on global economic growth, while haven assets including the Japanese yen, U.S. Treasuries and gold climbed. Investors increased bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.

"It’s among the worst-case scenarios," said Michael Every, head of Asia financial markets research at Rabobank in Hong Kong. "First markets sell off, then Trump wakes up and this all gets far, far worse."

The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
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It again goes to show the huge incompetency that Trump brings to the table. His bully attitude does not allow him to realize that is was this kind of attitude that has made things worse.

A couple of months ago a deal was ready to be made (China had agreed to some changes) but that wasn't enough for Trump as he wanted things on his terms and on his timeline and he then threatened more tariffs if Xi did not do what he wanted. The only thing that Trump needed to do is give some dignity to Xi and a deal would have been made but that is never good enough for a bully and the deal went to hell and now a true trade war is occurring that will cost everyone in the world economic pain and suffering. So far, the trade war has cost $1.2 trillion to the world economy.

Incompetency, stupidity, and bully tactics is not a recipe for success.

This is one more reason to hate Trump, especially given that he listens to no one, especially when it comes to his ego. Before this is over, it is going to cost us not only money but many people will die (like farmers through suicide) because of his bully approach.
 
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He's an idiot.
 
The more the Chinese let their currency fall, the better for the US.
 
Mycroft said:
The more the Chinese let their currency fall, the better for the US.
Click to expand...

Where do you get your information from, Trump?

Simple fact, lower Yuan means costlier U.S. products. When the Yuan devalues it means that Chinese products become less costly for all other nations and our products compared to Chinese products more expensive.

Simple math............
 
Luckyone said:
Where do you get your information from, Trump?

Simple fact, lower Yuan means costlier U.S. products. When the Yuan devalues it means that Chinese products become less costly for all other nations and our products compared to Chinese products more expensive.

Simple math............
Click to expand...

It also means Chinese goods are cheaper for US consumers. In other words, when our US importers bring Chinese stuff into the US, they can buy more of it for less cost. That means they can pay the tariffs without passing that cost onto the US consumers. And THAT means that the Chinese are actually paying the tariffs by effectively reducing their prices.

If they keep doing this, we will keep buying their stuff and they'll keep paying the tariffs...even if it's 25% or more. In the meantime, the Chinese government is subsidizing Chinese companies to make up for their reduced revenue...in effect, throwing cash down the drain they created by devaluing their currency.

Oh...and the Chinese are NOT subsidizing foreign companies who have operations in their country. That means those companies...many of them US companies...are losing revenue. They can't keep that up and they'll have to leave China...move to other countries that are not under tariffs. That means China loses MORE money.

Now...regarding Chinese products compared to US products from the viewpoint of other countries...it doesn't matter. Chinese products are ALREADY cheaper than US products. Those other nations already buy as much as they can from China. And by devaluing their currency, China is now getting less revenue from those other nations, as well.

China is in a trap. Their only hope is to hang on in hopes that Trump loses in 2020. If they bet wrong, they are screwed.

Or...they could come back to the table and negotiate in good faith.
 
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Mycroft said:
It also means Chinese goods are cheaper for US consumers. In other words, when our US importers bring Chinese stuff into the US, they can buy more of it for less cost. That means they can pay the tariffs without passing that cost onto the US consumers. And THAT means that the Chinese are actually paying the tariffs by effectively reducing their prices.

If they keep doing this, we will keep buying their stuff and they'll keep paying the tariffs...even if it's 25% or more. In the meantime, the Chinese government is subsidizing Chinese companies to make up for their reduced revenue...in effect, throwing cash down the drain they created by devaluing their currency.

Oh...and the Chinese are NOT subsidizing foreign companies who have operations in their country. That means those companies...many of them US companies...are losing revenue. They can't keep that up and they'll have to leave China...move to other countries that are not under tariffs. That means China loses MORE money.

Now...regarding Chinese products compared to US products from the viewpoint of other countries...it doesn't matter. Chinese products are ALREADY cheaper than US products. Those other nations already buy as much as they can from China. And by devaluing their currency, China is now getting less revenue from those other nations, as well.

China is in a trap. Their only hope is to hang on in hopes that Trump loses in 2020. If they bet wrong, they are screwed.

Or...they could come back to the table and negotiate in good faith.
Click to expand...

Haha3.jpg

You have it all figured out don't you.

Please explain why the stock market does not see it the way you do. The DOW is down about 1200 points in the last 3 days. The Stock market is a great measure as to whether something is good for our economy or not.

By the way, you have forgotten to note that over $1.2 trillion has been LOST in the world economy. How does that support your view?

Loss like that is not conducive to your point of view. Loss is loss, not gain.
 
Luckyone said:
It again goes to show the huge incompetency that Trump brings to the table. His bully attitude does not allow him to realize that is was this kind of attitude that has made things worse.

A couple of months ago a deal was ready to be made (China had agreed to some changes) but that wasn't enough for Trump as he wanted things on his terms and on his timeline and he then threatened more tariffs if Xi did not do what he wanted. The only thing that Trump needed to do is give some dignity to Xi and a deal would have been made but that is never good enough for a bully and the deal went to hell and now a true trade war is occurring that will cost everyone in the world economic pain and suffering. So far, the trade war has cost $1.2 trillion to the world economy.

Incompetency, stupidity, and bully tactics is not a recipe for success.

This is one more reason to hate Trump, especially given that he listens to no one, especially when it comes to his ego. Before this is over, it is going to cost us not only money but many people will die (like farmers through suicide) because of his bully approach.
Click to expand...

Yup!

If Trump did anything then everything that follows must be both bad and the fault of Trump.

At least your interpretation is predictable. Predictability is a good thing!

I hate surprises.
 
Luckyone said:
View attachment 67261245

You have it all figured out don't you.

Please explain why the stock market does not see it the way you do. The DOW is down about 1200 points in the last 3 days. The Stock market is a great measure as to whether something is good for our economy or not.

By the way, you have forgotten to note that over $1.2 trillion has been LOST in the world economy. How does that support your view?

Loss like that is not conducive to your point of view. Loss is loss, not gain.
Click to expand...

The stock market is nothing more than people who gamble on multinational corporations. When China takes steps that harm those multinationals, the gamblers pull out. Hence...the DOW drops.

Personally, I don't give a rat's ass if the "world economy" loses their bets. The US is moving away from an economy that depends on those gamblers and moving toward businesses that actually do stuff...produce stuff. And the US economy is doing great. If the rest of the world wants to keep depending on those gamblers, that's their choice. They'll suffer the consequences.
 
Luckyone said:
Where do you get your information from, Trump?

Simple fact, lower Yuan means costlier U.S. products. When the Yuan devalues it means that Chinese products become less costly for all other nations and our products compared to Chinese products more expensive.

Simple math............
Click to expand...

It's a wash.

Weaker yuan means Chinese goods in the US cost less.

Yet prices won't necessarily go down for US consumers. Increased tariffs will cancel the benefit to Beijing of the depreciation. Which is why Beijing depreciated, ie, to lessen the impact of the additional 10% tariff.

Beijing gains nothing in the US market by depreciating. The depreciation basically holds the present line on the cost of Chinese goods in the US. That's not good either but it's better to Beijing than prices continuing to go up and up and up.

It's also the case the always slowing Chinese economy cried out for some further depreciation in what has been a long term depreciation of the yuan. The depreciation isn't entirely about the trade war nor will continued further depreciation of the yuan be about the trade war only. The true rate of economic growth in the CCP-PRC is between 2% to 4%. This is apart from the trade war.

Soon the true growth will be 2% to 3%. Then it will be 1% to 3%. Then 0% to 2% and so on. Global markets are waiting for China to have the "major economic adjustment" it has been sweeping under the rug for several years. We can expect a fire sale when it does occur.
 
Luckyone said:
Where do you get your information from, Trump?

Simple fact, lower Yuan means costlier U.S. products. When the Yuan devalues it means that Chinese products become less costly for all other nations and our products compared to Chinese products more expensive.

Simple math............
Click to expand...

The simplicity of the math is this:

When the yuan devalues, and it will because China is a state controlled economy and this has always been their response, the impact of tariffs on the cost of goods sold in the US is eliminated.

The predicted catastrophe on the price of goods to the consumer is thereby eliminated.

No harm, no foul.

However, in real terms, the amount of cash flowing into the state controlled economy falls off. This will hurt the Chinese economy- State controlled or free.
 
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Luckyone said:
View attachment 67261245

You have it all figured out don't you.

Please explain why the stock market does not see it the way you do. The DOW is down about 1200 points in the last 3 days. The Stock market is a great measure as to whether something is good for our economy or not.

By the way, you have forgotten to note that over $1.2 trillion has been LOST in the world economy. How does that support your view?

Loss like that is not conducive to your point of view. Loss is loss, not gain.
Click to expand...

Stock markets are forward looking indicators. Stock Markets are more like a barometer of feelings than of anything else. Amazon posted rocket like rises in stock prices for years before they ever posted an operating profit.

GDP measures the overall and Earnings Reports measure the specifics of the economy and the impacts of any particular factors.
 
Luckyone said:
Where do you get your information from, Trump?

Simple fact, lower Yuan means costlier U.S. products. When the Yuan devalues it means that Chinese products become less costly for all other nations and our products compared to Chinese products more expensive.

Simple math............
Click to expand...

Nothing new. China has been manipulating their currency which is part of the reason for the trade war with China.
There is more going on than high trade deficits.
Do you really think China opens their markets to our goods and services, think again.
 
Mycroft said:
It also means Chinese goods are cheaper for US consumers. In other words, when our US importers bring Chinese stuff into the US, they can buy more of it for less cost. That means they can pay the tariffs without passing that cost onto the US consumers. And THAT means that the Chinese are actually paying the tariffs by effectively reducing their prices.

If they keep doing this, we will keep buying their stuff and they'll keep paying the tariffs...even if it's 25% or more. In the meantime, the Chinese government is subsidizing Chinese companies to make up for their reduced revenue...in effect, throwing cash down the drain they created by devaluing their currency.

Oh...and the Chinese are NOT subsidizing foreign companies who have operations in their country. That means those companies...many of them US companies...are losing revenue. They can't keep that up and they'll have to leave China...move to other countries that are not under tariffs. That means China loses MORE money.

Now...regarding Chinese products compared to US products from the viewpoint of other countries...it doesn't matter. Chinese products are ALREADY cheaper than US products. Those other nations already buy as much as they can from China. And by devaluing their currency, China is now getting less revenue from those other nations, as well.

China is in a trap. Their only hope is to hang on in hopes that Trump loses in 2020. If they bet wrong, they are screwed.

Or...they could come back to the table and negotiate in good faith.
Click to expand...

Except Trump gets his dumbass booted out of office in a few months and Xi doesn't. So even if your analysis is correct, its short sighted. You actually think China does not know what its currency is doing and its effect? Geezus, the racial arrogance of America knows no boundaries and it does not matter who the target might be, yellow, red, brown, black....does not matter the Pillsbury Dough Boy is smarter than all of them.....Ah-huh.
 
jnug said:
Except Trump gets his dumbass booted out of office in a few months and Xi doesn't. So even if your analysis is correct, its short sighted. You actually think China does not know what its currency is doing and its effect? Geezus, the racial arrogance of America knows no boundaries and it does not matter who the target might be, yellow, red, brown, black....does not matter the Pillsbury Dough Boy is smarter than all of them.....Ah-huh.
Click to expand...

So...you want to join China and bet against Trump.

Good luck.
 
Mycroft said:
So...you want to join China and bet against Trump.

Good luck.
Click to expand...

China will outlast Trump even if he does get reelected. So in that sense, ya' I would not bet against China in this case.

This country DOES NOT have the muscle any longer to overturn globalism on its own. Trump's go it alone BS will come back to haunt him in the end.
 
Mycroft said:
The stock market is nothing more than people who gamble on multinational corporations. When China takes steps that harm those multinationals, the gamblers pull out. Hence...the DOW drops.

Personally, I don't give a rat's ass if the "world economy" loses their bets. The US is moving away from an economy that depends on those gamblers and moving toward businesses that actually do stuff...produce stuff. And the US economy is doing great. If the rest of the world wants to keep depending on those gamblers, that's their choice. They'll suffer the consequences.
Click to expand...

U.S. to produce stuff and sell it to whom? To ourselves? Sure, if you want to spend more for your everyday needs. Is that what you want, for everything from milk and bread to phones and cars to cost you more? Great thought there smart man.

As far as the gamblers on the Stock Market. Its funny that Trump constantly says that the stock market is important as it shows how good his economy is and that the traders know what they are doing but then when it goes down it is gamblers betting on the wrong direction? They were "lucky" gamblers going up but unlucky gamblers when it goes down?

Keep up the smart thoughts. In your fantasy world everything works a** backwards.
 
Luckyone said:
It again goes to show the huge incompetency that Trump brings to the table. His bully attitude does not allow him to realize that is was this kind of attitude that has made things worse.

A couple of months ago a deal was ready to be made (China had agreed to some changes) but that wasn't enough for Trump as he wanted things on his terms and on his timeline and he then threatened more tariffs if Xi did not do what he wanted. The only thing that Trump needed to do is give some dignity to Xi and a deal would have been made but that is never good enough for a bully and the deal went to hell and now a true trade war is occurring that will cost everyone in the world economic pain and suffering. So far, the trade war has cost $1.2 trillion to the world economy.

Incompetency, stupidity, and bully tactics is not a recipe for success.

This is one more reason to hate Trump, especially given that he listens to no one, especially when it comes to his ego. Before this is over, it is going to cost us not only money but many people will die (like farmers through suicide) because of his bully approach.
Click to expand...

I love to read posts from people who are more than willing to fold to a criminal state who’s long term goal is to turn us into a third world country by cheating at trade, stealing everything not nailed down, and killing off 75,000 of our people every year by importing synthetic opioids.

China’s ruling communist country is not your friend.
 
Outlook said:
Nothing new. China has been manipulating their currency which is part of the reason for the trade war with China.
There is more going on than high trade deficits.
Do you really think China opens their markets to our goods and services, think again.
Click to expand...

I understand everything involved in this. Remember, I have been a stock broker/analyst/trader for 42 years?

Bottom line is that trade wars are never good for anyone, even those not directly involved. Who ultimately pays for the trade wars? The consumer! and then all nations involved because when prices go up, purchasing power goes down. Yes, China is hurt and so is the U.S. and every other country in the world that buys or sells to China and/or the U.S. There are no winners in a trade war. Everyone loses.
 
Mycroft said:
So...you want to join China and bet against Trump.

Good luck.
Click to expand...

There is no winner in a trade war. You are betting for a guaranteed losing hand for everyone.

The thing you do not realize is that China has been around for over 6000 years and dignity is what drives them. It is the most important thing that is drilled into their minds from the moment they were born, meaning that they are willing to suffer to obtain dignity. Are we willing to suffer to get our way and in the end lose anyhow? It is a lose-lose situation but for us it means more because dignity is not important to us, money is what matters to us (we are a Capitalistic country). Under this scenario, you are guaranteed losing money. We are not hurting them where it hurts most, but they are hitting us where it hurts most.
 
chuckiechan said:
I love to read posts from people who are more than willing to fold to a criminal state who’s long term goal is to turn us into a third world country by cheating at trade, stealing everything not nailed down, and killing off 75,000 of our people every year by importing synthetic opioids.

China’s ruling communist country is not your friend.
Click to expand...

This post of yours is funny coming from a person that doesn't seem to care that our President is doing what Putin wants him to do. We hold our place when it comes to someone cheating on trade but then fold when it comes to someone that is cheating on our elections. Talk about an oxymoron.

Before Trump decided on starting a trade war, the reality was that our economy was growing and now because of the trade war our economy (and all the economies of the world) are shrinking. Do you consider that a win? What is worse is that China was willing to give "some" concessions but "some" was not good enough for Trump. He wanted the whole thing.

Try doing that to your wife and see how it works!
 
Luckyone said:
This post of yours is funny coming from a person that doesn't seem to care that our President is doing what Putin wants him to do. We hold our place when it comes to someone cheating on trade but then fold when it comes to someone that is cheating on our elections. Talk about an oxymoron.

Before Trump decided on starting a trade war, the reality was that our economy was growing and now because of the trade war our economy (and all the economies of the world) are shrinking. Do you consider that a win? What is worse is that China was willing to give "some" concessions but "some" was not good enough for Trump. He wanted the whole thing.

Try doing that to your wife and see how it works!
Click to expand...

Unbelievable.
 
Luckyone said:
There is no winner in a trade war. You are betting for a guaranteed losing hand for everyone.

The thing you do not realize is that China has been around for over 6000 years and dignity is what drives them. It is the most important thing that is drilled into their minds from the moment they were born, meaning that they are willing to suffer to obtain dignity. Are we willing to suffer to get our way and in the end lose anyhow? It is a lose-lose situation but for us it means more because dignity is not important to us, money is what matters to us (we are a Capitalistic country). Under this scenario, you are guaranteed losing money. We are not hurting them where it hurts most, but they are hitting us where it hurts most.
Click to expand...

You haven't been listening to me. The more China resists negotiation, the more they will be hurt. Meanwhile, the US economy is going strong.

But...you say "they are hitting us where it hurts most". Where is that?
 
chuckiechan said:
Unbelievable.
Click to expand...

Reality is reality. For example, no matter how wrong your wife may be, if she believes you have harmed her she will divorce you and you will be alone. Her request may be totally unfair but you have had a working marriage for 10 years and now if you hold your ground and not give in a little to what she wants, the marriage is over.

What do you do? Divorce her? Look for another wife? Unfortunately you are old and no one wants to marry you, so your choice is give in a bit so the marriage stays on or divorce her and live alone. That is reality! Just like the fact that Trump got elected against the will of the larger portion of Americans and you guys are the first ones that say "live with it!"
 
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