Well, we're not quite at war yet, but it might actually be worse than if we had simply blown away some Iranians.
Remember when Obama's "red line" in Syria was supposed to be a horrible display of American weakness? Well, now we've got a horribly display of weakness and incompetence: he hears about the drone getting shot down on Fox, gets mad, orders a military attack without gathering any information or thinking, and then publicly pats himself on the back for backing down at the last minute. (And naturally this cannot be said without also mentioning the craven display of Trumpists who were outraged at Obama's red line and are now touting Trump's cravenness as some kind of virtue).
That signals to anyone who wants to **** with us that we're wide open. Same thing as with his pathetic failures with North Korea.
Better to just do nothing, even.
It is one that the Iranians are well aware of too.
Trump has a knack of giving away his negotiating leverage.
This is either because he does not understand politics or government (which is blindingly obvious, by now), or because he has always conducted himself this way, and always tried to pass himself off and confident in his own genius (there is plenty of evidence of that too).
Actually, I think the man is deeply insecure, afraid to make a mistake, and definitely not willing to take responsibility for anything.
And Trump does nothing for any other purpose other than entertaining his domestic political base.
Trump gave away the single biggest bargaining chip we had with China his first week in office, when he unilaterally torpedoed the Trans Pacific Partnership. He handed Beijing a gift on a plate, and got absolutely nothing for it (he didn’t even think to ask!).
Then he allowed himself to get in a bullying spat with Kim Jung Un, whose schoolboy antics were well known and generally ignored going all the way back to his grandfather. But Trump had to wade in and lower the Presidency to that juvenile level.
Then he went obsequious on us. All he really wanted was to look statesmanlike on Fox News. He had no plan, no agenda, and no clear goals.
And he unilaterally declared victory and dissed our allies in the process.
North Korea went home with everything they came with in tact.
The Iranians watched the lessons that two US Presidents, Bush and Trump taught (inadvertently in both cases).
Bush labeled Iran, North Korea and Iraq as in an imaginary “axis of evil”. Then Bush attacked the one country in the “axis” the they knew didn’t have nuclear weapons.
Iran and North Korea both immediately resumed their programs. North Korea accelerated theirs as a national priority.
The American blustered and threatened both countries. Both ignored them.
Iran used their program as a bargaining chip to recover lost funds and to ease trade restrictions.
North Korea built a bomb, and later missles.
And Kim Jong Un punked Trump not once, but twice. And the UN and US sanctions are much leakier now than they were before Trump bullied and blustered.
Iran has every incentive to behave exactly the way the North Koreans did. After all, it worked.
eace
