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I will tell you my take on this.
Do you know why the polls in 2016 were so far off? Because Democratic and Independent Trump voters wouldn't admit they were going to vote for Trump. Thats why it was such a shocker when he won. Trump was nothing but a chance with no political experience or history. So what has changed for this election.
He is the incumbent which is a huge advantage.
He has a historical economy, historical unemployment, and historical stock market numbers. That alone will define the election
His rallies are 100,000 plus and he can do 3-4 a day. The guy is a machine
CNN, his greatest adversary in 2016 is now the lowest rated cable news network. People are tuning out to the fake media. They don't believe them anymore. And other Liberal media is learning from CNNs viewership tanking. They are losing advertisers and are now changing their format away from the hate Trump theme. Even the NYT has refused to allow their reporters to be interviewed on CNN.
The DNC is 6 million in the hole mostly from unpaid debts from 2016 while the RNC has 33 million in cash and growing rapidly
The old Russian agent claims are over. The AG and the DOJ have cleared Trump and over 70% of the country is tired of the story
Democrats are running a guy who is older now than Reagan was when he left office. He is already stumbling through some important flip flops and now that the Russia story has flopped, everyone is very sensitive to Foreign entanglements. Hunter Bidens past with China and Ukraine are a big problem especially since Biden has stated China isn't a threat as well as Bidens interference in Ukraine to stop Hunters investigation.
Given the despicable treatment portraying Kavanaugh as a high school alcoholic rape train conductor, followed up with Liberals beating on the doors of the SCOTUS during his swearing in, more and more people are embarrassed to claim they are Democrats. They don't want to be associated with that kind of behavior.
Even the NAACP is reporting numbers of black support for Trump moving from 8% from the original voting numbers of 2016 to high 20s and even some at mid 30s. I am 60 years old and have never seen the hundreds of videos of Blacks supporting a conservative until the last 2 years.
If Trump accomplishes his trade war with China (which I think he will) this is over
The largest crowed Biden has drawn thus far is about 6000 supporters.
Honestly, if Trump loses this election, it will be a larger upset than Hillarys defeat.
Thats the way I see it.
The polls in 2016 predicted the popular vote quite accurately, contrary to your assertion.
Trump may continue to ride on the coattails of the Obama economy. Of course, the skyrocketing budget deficit will eventually catch him, but he won’t care if he’s re elected. Trump can not point to a single economic policy other than a WAll Street designed tax cut for Wall Street.
Your obsession with CNN would be odd, were it not for the fact that you’re just obsessing over it because Trump bellows about it. No one else cares.
The Russia/Trump scandal is far from over. Trumpsters are whistling past the graveyard if they cling to that. But then again, because Trump bellows it, it’s fact in the Fox/talk radio bubble, regardless of the real story or documented evidence.
Biden is the same age as Trump.
Trump has never done four rallies in a day.
Kavanaugh is the guy he was portrayed as being, He made that clear with his petulant, self serving and disrespectful appearance before the Judiciary Committee in which he behaved just like the entitled punk he was portrayed as being.
Of course, the real highlight of the hearing was when Kamila Harris nailed him to the wall regarding his contacts with Trump’s attorneys (and saved him from purjuring himself, as he was clearly about to do).
Purjury is now the response of the Attorney General.
This Trumpster fantasy about the black vote is really ridiculous.
Trump will not succeeed with China. They won’t even talk to him.
But you’re back to your Trumpian insistence on crowd size as yardstick.
Trump is a night club act pretending to be a political leaders. His audiences come to be entertained and have their prejudices validated by a guy who sounds just like Archie Bunker. That’s it.