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Trump told aides to deny internal polling showed him trailing Biden

Simon W. Moon said:
538 were the only ones who got it right, fwiw
:shrug:
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That remains our outlook today in our final forecast of the year. Clinton is a 71 percent favorite to win the election according to our polls-only model and a 72 percent favorite according to our polls-plus model. (The models are essentially the same at this point, so they show about the same forecast.) This reflects a meaningful improvement for Clinton in the past 48 hours as the news cycle has taken a final half-twist in her favor. Her chances have increased from about 65 percent.
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Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton | FiveThirtyEight
 
Ikari said:
I can buy that he's trying to bury any polling data that doesn't show him in a good light. That being said, 2020 is some time away and Biden hasn't even won the DNC nomination yet. So there's not much faith to put into polls at this point. If the DNC does run Biden...perhaps he wins, perhaps not. I don't see Biden as a really exciting candidate and just mostly more of the same.
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And yet he kicks ass in all the polls. So much for your "excitability" hypothesis.
 
Trump said:
.....
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Thank you Trump.

I was wondering what the hell kind of a poll ever showed Hillary leading Trump in Texas?

If you take a peek at the poll your link actually refers too, if I am not mistaken, Hillary only lead Trump in a mono-y-mono match-up and even then it was only by 1 point on this outlier polling. When their poll included/reflected the other candidates that were on the ballot, which is the reality of it all, this outlier poll showed Clinton and Trump tied at 40%. So.... the poll showing Clinton leading by 1 point was just a fantasy poll to begin with as it was not based on the actual upcoming election which included more than 2 candidates on the ballot.

But I give you "E" for effort. And, I think your spin on it is downright admirable and might even go over on someone who doesn't actually check the facts.

2016 United States presidential election in Texas - Wikipedia

But, whatever. For every poll you can show me with Clinton leading Trump in Texas, I will see your poll and raise you five others that do not reflect that.

But I know that Trumpkins will stick with the polls that make them feel good and decry all others as "fake news." You go boy!
 
ecofarm said:
What are you talking about? No additional evidence is required or has been required in over a year. The Dems can impeach anytime they want. They have the votes. It's a technicality.

Noting is or has been required to impeach him for a long time. It's just a matter of when, and they'll decide.

But so that you understand... evidence is not the limiting factor. Political timing is the limiting factor.
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It's also a matter of 'is that a cost effective use of time'. It's mid-2019 already. Better to win 2020 election instead.
 
Lutherf said:
IMPEACH HIM!!!! IMPEACH NOW!!!!

This is finally the smoking gun that proves......

Aw, sorry. It's just a reflex by now.
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I see you've given up on self-reflection. Was likely before Trump ever appeared.
 
Trump said:
I watched Nate on election night more than once ....in the beginning he had Hillary winning.
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Sure, but the standard of comparison is other poll analysts

Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else | FiveThirtyEight


Also, humans often have trouble understanding stats and chances.
For example
Take a revolver with a single bullet in the cylinder.
We are unable to determine which chamber the bullet is in.
You pull the trigger and the bullet fires.
Did you actually have an 83% chance of the bullet not being in the chamber?
The bullet fired.
So, obviously, common sense tell us that the 83% chance that there's not a bullet in the chamber was wrong, right?​
 
RAMOSS said:
It's also a matter of 'is that a cost effective use of time'. It's mid-2019 already. Better to win 2020 election instead.
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Luth doesn't believe for one second that a lack of evidence is holding things up. That's a pathetic rhetorical attempt to pretend there is no evidence.
 
Captain America said:
Thank you Trump.

I was wondering what the hell kind of a poll ever showed Hillary leading Trump in Texas?

If you take a peek at the poll your link actually refers too, if I am not mistaken, Hillary only lead Trump in a mono-y-mono match-up and even then it was only by 1 point on this outlier polling. When their poll included/reflected the other candidates that were on the ballot, which is the reality of it all, this outlier poll showed Clinton and Trump tied at 40%. So.... the poll showing Clinton leading by 1 point was just a fantasy poll to begin with as it was not based on the actual upcoming election which included more than 2 candidates on the ballot.

But I give you "E" for effort. And, I think your spin on it is downright admirable and might even go over on someone who doesn't actually check the facts.

2016 United States presidential election in Texas - Wikipedia

But, whatever. For every poll you can show me with Clinton leading Trump in Texas, I will see your poll and raise you five others that do not reflect that.

But I know that Trumpkins will stick with the polls that make them feel good and decry all others as "fake news." You go boy!
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Poll deniers......:lamo
 
Simon W. Moon said:
Sure, but the standard of comparison is other poll analysts

Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else | FiveThirtyEight


Also, humans often have trouble understanding stats and chances.
For example
Take a revolver with a single bullet in the cylinder.
We are unable to determine which chamber the bullet is in.
You pull the trigger and the bullet fires.
Did you actually have an 83% chance of the bullet not being in the chamber?
The bullet fired.
So, obviously, common sense tell us that the 83% chance that there's not a bullet in the chamber was wrong, right?​
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So Nate was wrong....got it.
 
Simon W. Moon said:
Yeah.
Given that, you'd figure Trump'd have more confidence in himself than to worry about these early polls.
...the poor guy.
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Trump has plenty of confidence. He is transferring some of that confidence to his staff and aides by telling them not to pay attention to a bunch of polls.
 
Trump said:
Poll deniers......:lamo
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Polls, schmolls....

If anything, both right, left and center, we should have ALL learned by now not to put any faith in polls. If RCP and 538 can get it wrong, so can any of the rest of them.

But there is no DOUBT that an OVERWHELMING number of polls put Trump ahead of Clinton, by a significant margin, in the Great State of Texas.

Do you know of another poll you can share that ever showed Clinton over Trump, that included ALL the candidates on the ballot? I would love to see them. I am a native Texan and detest Hillary Clinton. I cannot believe the people in Texas, overall, would ever prefer that hag over just about anyone else.

The irony of it all is that in the primaries, Cruz kicked Trump's ass in Texas. Whoda ever thunk that?
 
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Trump said:
So Nate was wrong....got it.
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here's a koan ferya, ferda

Take a six-shot revolver with a single bullet in the cylinder.​
We are unable to determine which chamber the bullet is in.​
You pull the trigger and the bullet fires.​

Did you actually have an 83% chance of the bullet not being in the chamber?​

The bullet fired.​
So, obviously, common sense tell us that the 83% chance that there's not a bullet in the chamber was wrong, right?​
 
Simon W. Moon said:
It's hard to base a guess about what Trump's negative net approval ratings mean for Trump's chances based because
Trump's disapproval ratings are unprecedented.


538 has a section at the bottom of this page which lets you make historical comparisons of things like 'net approval' and disapproval ratings as well as approval ratings.
How Popular Is Donald Trump? | FiveThirtyEight


As you can see, no other president has kept a negative net approval so consistently.
A few dipped down into the negatives, but Trump has never left the negatives.


attachment.php
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Very true. Trump is unique. With independents Trump had the advantage of running against Hillary Clinton. Trump wasn't liked by independents 40% favorable, 57% unfavorable on election day. That would have normally translated into a loss of the independent vote. But Hillary was disliked by independents much more, 27% favorable/70% unfavorable. Questions 10 and 11.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l37rosbwjp/econTabReport_lv.pdf

This hatred or disliked by independents for Hillary enabled Trump to win the independent vote 46-42 over Hillary with 12% voting third party or against both major party candidates. The Republican Party is still the smaller of the two major parties, it is a must for Trump, any Republican to win the independent vote because of that fact. Can he do it again? I suppose that depends on whom the Democrats nominate. Biden I think would be a safe choice for the Democrats. But I don't think he could energize the Democratic base ala like Hillary Clinton couldn't. But with Trump as his opponent, perhaps Biden doesn't need to. Trump being the motivation factor to energize getting Democrats to the polls ala 2018.

With Trump you have your pro Trumpers and anti Trumpers. Love vs. hate. It's the ones in the middle that will decide Trump's reelection fate. Those who neither love or hate Trump, the non-pro and non-anti Trumpers. Until we know whom the democrats will nominate, I'd say they're up for grabs, we don't know which side of the coin they will come down on.
 
PIPEWRENCH said:
Trump has plenty of confidence. He is transferring some of that confidence to his staff and aides by telling them not to pay attention to a bunch of polls.
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The report is that Trump told them to lie.
Lying is different than ignoring.
Leastways, it used to be.
:shrug:
 
Casper said:
Just keep repeating that mantra, think you may be very disappointed.
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I seem to pick the winner of the election every time. It is after they get into office that I realized I lost and the rich and powerful won again. Well not with Trump. But all the other bought and paid for party puppets I screwed up and voted for.
 
Perotista said:
Not in Texas.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Texas: Trump vs. Clinton

North Carolina was close, but Trump still led by an average of one.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton
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We’ll see how interesting the coattails are in NC, where Sen. Burr won in 2016 by 267k, with 168k 3rd party, trump won by 173k, with 190k 3rd party, and Gov. Cooper won by 10k, with 103k 3rd party. Cooper is up for re-election, along with an unpopular Sen. Tillis, who may yet get a difficult primary. Add to that the other troubles the gop is having in NC.

The RNC convention is in Charlotte, NC, SIX weeks after the DNC convention in Milwaukee, WI. I don’t ever recall seeing that separation. Who does that help? There were several other states I’ve spoken with you about in the past where gop senators out-polled trump and both won.

This includes Florida, where Rubio won by 713k, with 344k 3rd party. trump won Florida by 113k, with 297k 3rd party. Florida has no major races this term, meaning governor or senator.

Other states with the same pattern in 2016 are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, and Arizona. It’s clear to me that trump owes his presidency to REDMAP 2010, the gop Senate wipeout in 2014, all up for re-election this term, and McConnell in 2016.

So, where might there be these bottom-up Senate coattails in 2020? I’d say start with Arizona, Texas, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, and of course North Carolina. Any thoughts on this angle?
 
Captain America said:
Polls, schmolls....

If anything, both right, left and center, we should have ALL learned by now not to put any faith in polls. If RCP and 538 can get it wrong, so can any of the rest of them.

But there is no DOUBT that an OVERWHELMING number of polls put Trump ahead of Clinton, by a significant margin, in the Great State of Texas.

Do you know of another poll you can share that ever showed Clinton over Trump, that included ALL the candidates on the ballot? I would love to see them. I am a native Texan and detest Hillary Clinton. I cannot believe the people in Texas, overall, would ever prefer that hag over just about anyone else.

The irony of it all is that in the primaries, Cruz kicked Trump's ass in Texas. Whoda ever thunk that?
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and Trump kicked Rubio's ass in Florida...means very little imo....until general election
 
Simon W. Moon said:
here's a koan ferya, ferda

Take a six-shot revolver with a single bullet in the cylinder.​
We are unable to determine which chamber the bullet is in.​
You pull the trigger and the bullet fires.​

Did you actually have an 83% chance of the bullet not being in the chamber?​

The bullet fired.​
So, obviously, common sense tell us that the 83% chance that there's not a bullet in the chamber was wrong, right?​
Click to expand...

if we put seven-up in a drawer for 2 weeks and it turns up fizzy what are the chances it tastes wrong right?
 
Trump said:
if we put seven-up in a drawer for 2 weeks and it turns up fizzy what are the chances it tastes wrong right?
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Your non-sequitur indicates that you got the point bu don't want to address it I s'pose
 
Phys251 said:
And yet he kicks ass in all the polls. So much for your "excitability" hypothesis.
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Meh, Hillary led many polls at the start too. I think Biden has a large step up because he's not Trump. But he is a status quo Republocrat and can blow it as easily as Hillary did.

The polls are meaningless at this point.
 
PIPEWRENCH said:
So in the election between Trump and Hillary Trump was ahead in the majority of the polls. Or did you waste a bunch of time finding a few polls that support your agenda and think I am going to believe it.
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We're talking Texas here. Nationally, here:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

Nationally the polls said Hillary would win the popular vote by three points, she won it by two. Well withing the margin of error of plus or minus three points. Electoral college, the polls gave Hillary 203 electoral votes to Trump's 164 with 171 in the tossup category.

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

So basically the polls were calling the race a tossup. Popular vote with the margin of error meant a tie to Hillary being 6 points a head. She won the popular by two points. Electoral college wise, the polls called it a tossup.
 
Perotista said:
We're talking Texas here. Nationally, here:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

Nationally the polls said Hillary would win the popular vote by three points, she won it by two. Well withing the margin of error of plus or minus three points. Electoral college, the polls gave Hillary 203 electoral votes to Trump's 164 with 171 in the tossup category.

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

So basically the polls were calling the race a tossup. Popular vote with the margin of error meant a tie to Hillary being 6 points a head. She won the popular by two points. Electoral college wise, the polls called it a tossup.
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boy thats certainly not what media was projecting as a whole....tossup?

even Fox wouldn't say that out loud:lol:
 
Ikari said:
Meh, Hillary led many polls at the start too. I think Biden has a large step up because he's not Trump. But he is a status quo Republocrat and can blow it as easily as Hillary did.

The polls are meaningless at this point.
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It's early, I'll give you that. But if--if Biden maintains a comfortable lead, then the whole "excitability" argument will go out the window.

A lot of people in the Democratic base just want to win. Biden, Bernie, Warren, whomever. Just win, baby.
 
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