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Biden vs. Sanders - Biden way ahead in Pennsylvania

GreatNews2night said:
Blacks, women, and older voters are overwhelmingly more for Biden than for Sanders. You can't win the Dem primaries without these segments (which is one of the multiple reasons why Sanders lost to Hillary, unlike what his followers think, that it was all the doing of the DNC).

Sanders appeals to younger voters (the most unreliable segment) and has no connection whatsoever with blacks. He is seen as an aloof Jew by black Christians. Biden will kill him in Southern states.
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Biden will kill him in Southern states.
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Yes, spot on
 
Perotista said:
It's way too early to put much stock in polls. Although in theory Biden should be more attractive to the independent voter while Sanders should be more attractive to Democrats during their primaries. Personally, I don't think the Democratic Party should go with either one. If I were a Democrat I'd be looking for a fresh young face. If that fresh young face is from flyover country, so much the better. I'd be leery about an old politician or any politician from the northeast in general.

Look at the Democrats success over the recent years, Obama, young fresh face from Illinois. Bill Clinton young fresh face from Arkansas, Jimmy Carter, young fresh face from Georgia. Those were winners. Losers, tired old face from New York, Hillary Clinton. Tried faces from Massachusetts, Kerry and Dukakis. Sure, Al Gore lost, Tennessee, but he wasn't a fresh face either. Long time senator and Vice President. Mondale, former senator and VP, Minnesota also lost. But no one was going to beat Reagan in 1984. not even FDR.

Who would be that young fresh face hopefully from flyover country, that is for the Democrats to figure out.
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Good points!! I never looked at it that way even though I would prefer a younger, fresher candidate

Problem is, the Democrats don't seem to have one that is also viable, though Cory Booker seems to have some charisma and has a good back story
 
Winston said:
But Bernie policy is consistent with popular opinion. His policy platform is in the mainstream of American wants and needs.

So, it's my estimation that these particular smears would be ineffective. They would be dismissed as badly motivated smears from a badly motivated party who supports a serial philanderer and accused rapist.

As for the gun smears, Bernie isn't soft on guns. Just look at his D- rating from the NRA.

I actually think conservative smears on Bernie actually help him since conservatives are so out of touch with where the majority of the country is. They would smear him with silly things that actually solidify his support.

Biden however is vulnerable because he embodies the establishment and it's bad track record


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Yes, Sanders policies are more consistent with popular opinion. Particularly with the opinions of Democrats.

If only people voted on the basis of policy
 
Defeating Tweety is the primary goal. I prefer Sanders, but my top issue is win.
 
GreatNews2night said:
LOL, I love it. Sanders' followers pretend that he is the choice of Americans. Guess what? In the key state of Pennsylvania, registered Democrats prefer Biden by 39%, while only 13% prefer Sanders (Harris 8%, Warren 8%, Buttigieg 6%, Booker 5%, the others 1% or less). 39% to 13%, LOL. Sanders is a loser, like I've been saying. He won't win the Dem primary, again. So, now what? Will his followers whine that it's the doing of the DNC, again? They are in denial that Dem primary voters did not want Sanders in 2016, and they won't want Sanders in 2020 either.

In a scenario Biden vs. Trump compared to Sanders vs. Trump, both beat Trump in Pennsylvania, but Biden does it by 11% while Sanders does it by 7%. Among independents, Biden leads Trump by an even bigger margin, 14%.

When asked which candidate people think is most likely to beat Trump, 61% picked Biden.

Come again? The people want Sanders? Nope. The people want Biden.

Biden ahead of Trump by double digits in key state of Pennsylvania, poll finds (and don't dismiss it because it's Yahoo; they merely reproduced the USA Today article).
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If Sanders wins the Primary (I'm not making a prediction of who will win the Primary, btw), will you support him in his effort to defeat Trump?
 
GreatNews2night said:
LOL, I love it. Sanders' followers pretend that he is the choice of Americans. Guess what? In the key state of Pennsylvania, registered Democrats prefer Biden by 39%, while only 13% prefer Sanders (Harris 8%, Warren 8%, Buttigieg 6%, Booker 5%, the others 1% or less). 39% to 13%, LOL. Sanders is a loser, like I've been saying. He won't win the Dem primary, again. So, now what? Will his followers whine that it's the doing of the DNC, again? They are in denial that Dem primary voters did not want Sanders in 2016, and they won't want Sanders in 2020 either.

In a scenario Biden vs. Trump compared to Sanders vs. Trump, both beat Trump in Pennsylvania, but Biden does it by 11% while Sanders does it by 7%. Among independents, Biden leads Trump by an even bigger margin, 14%.

When asked which candidate people think is most likely to beat Trump, 61% picked Biden.

Come again? The people want Sanders? Nope. The people want Biden.

Biden ahead of Trump by double digits in key state of Pennsylvania, poll finds (and don't dismiss it because it's Yahoo; they merely reproduced the USA Today article).
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Exclusive: Clinton leads Trump in key swing states, would likely win election - poll
Exclusive: Clinton leads Trump in key swing states, would likely win election - poll - Reuters
 
veritas1 said:
Between Biden's creeping dementia and his helping his shady son make off with millions in Ukraine, he's guaranteed to lose to Trump. In the end, the Dems will find a way to throw him under the bus, I think. If not, there will be four years of finger pointing and intra-party warfare.
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This post is incredibly ironic.
 
Perotista said:
It's way too early to put much stock in polls. Although in theory Biden should be more attractive to the independent voter while Sanders should be more attractive to Democrats during their primaries. Personally, I don't think the Democratic Party should go with either one. If I were a Democrat I'd be looking for a fresh young face. If that fresh young face is from flyover country, so much the better. I'd be leery about an old politician or any politician from the northeast in general.

Look at the Democrats success over the recent years, Obama, young fresh face from Illinois. Bill Clinton young fresh face from Arkansas, Jimmy Carter, young fresh face from Georgia. Those were winners. Losers, tired old face from New York, Hillary Clinton. Tried faces from Massachusetts, Kerry and Dukakis. Sure, Al Gore lost, Tennessee, but he wasn't a fresh face either. Long time senator and Vice President. Mondale, former senator and VP, Minnesota also lost. But no one was going to beat Reagan in 1984. not even FDR.

Who would be that young fresh face hopefully from flyover country, that is for the Democrats to figure out.
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Again, I don't know why you keep thinking independents = moderates. It's just not true, and I keep showing you why per their stances on policy, yet you insist on trotting it out repeatedly.

Having said that, I will admit that at present, Biden is somewhat more popular among independents than Bernie, but the margin is actually smaller there than among Democrats (exactly the inverse of what you are suggesting), and, as you've noted, seeing as we're more than a year and a half out, polling on individuals means little at this point.
 
GreatNews2night said:
Well, if it's like this, why are all the early polls showing Sanders badly behind? Remember, this time, the progressive vote in the primaries won't be just Bernie's, but will be divided among others (Warren, Harris, etc.). Biden on the other hand is likely to gobble up most of the moderate voters.

Don't underestimate Conservative smears. Hillary lost the election (among other blunders, but did most closely lose it on this, since before it, she was ahead, then took a nose dive) on the Comey letter stating, 11 days before the election, that her emails were found in a convicted pedophile's laptop. The sheer association (something Hillary had nothing to do with; likely a blunder by her assistant, the spouse of said pedophile) disgusted many people. Now, Sanders has HIMSELF made some quite pedophile-like statements... which haven't been systematic exploited by attack ads. Trump is a specialist is smearing people and he shouldn't be underestimated in his ability to do so. I do think that if Sanders wins the nomination, we'll see him depicted as a pedophile. I'm fully aware that it's unfair, untrue, and hypocritical since Trump has supported a pedophile in GOP state primaries and has boasted about entering teenage girls' locker rooms when they were in a state of undress. But since when did fairness, truth, and refraining from hypocrisy, stop Trump??? His base doesn't care about what he does; the Dem base, however, does care about what their candidates do, as shown in Al Franken's case.

You say that Biden embodies the establishment. Well, Biden is the least wealthy US Senator/former senator, did you know that? And people associate Biden with the Obama administration, and they miss Obama, who ended his two terms with very high approval ratings.

No, I think Biden not only has better chances at winning the Dem nomination, but also better chances at beating Trump.

People keep applying data from 2016 to 2020. These are apples and oranges. In 2016 an expressive chunk of both sides got tired of the establishment and wanted alternative candidates. It may very well be the case (as shown by Biden leading Sanders among primary Dem voters in Penn by an astounding 38% to 13%) that this time, people will be tired of extremism (with all the turmoil the nation has been suffering), and longing for the rice-and-beans middle-of-the-road dignified president like Obama was.

Look, Nancy Pelosi is no fool. That woman is *extremely* experienced and politically savvy. She's been trying to curtail the youthful enthusiasm of green people like AOC with the latter's pretty extreme proposals. I believe that Nancy is feeling that the winds are blowing on the sails of moderates, this time (which is why she is also not pushing the impeachment agenda forward).

I think America is tired and frightened after a few years of erratic Trump, and want a sort of calm leadership that won't make too many waves. That's Biden. That's not Sanders.
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TBH, I've seen more 'moderates' in favour of impeachment than progressives who feel it's better to run against the wildly unpopular devil you know than the one you don't. That's not to say the latter view is monolithic among progressives, but it's certainly a popular one.

As to what constitutes the establishment, let's keep it real, it's not about your money or age or tenure so much as where you're getting your campaign finance from and how you voted. The establishment is a collection of political stances and orthodoxy more than anything else.

As to Obama, he was weak, and the GOP bent him over backwards whether per his naivety that they would play nice or implicit agreement with the Republican agenda; I think the nostalgia goggles will come off once Biden hits the debates and is confronted by his materially checkered past and votation history (that is assuming the Dem candidates don't play pattycakes with each other in the name of 'unity'; a distinct possibility). This is coming from someone who was seduced by Obama and wished his presidency the best despite serious misgivings which later proved to be absolutely correct.

Lastly, Pelosi isn't truly savvy or at least prescient; if she were she would have seen where things were going on things even as relatively uncontroversial as marijuana legalization and the like and positioned accordingly, rather than having to be dragged onside, kicking and screaming. Instead, all she has done is tow the 'moderate' line come hell or highwater. If she's right, it's only by sheer coincidence in the manner of a broken clock.

EDIT: Also Sanders made 'pedophile-like statements'? Source please.
 
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GreatNews2night said:
Well, if it's like this, why are all the early polls showing Sanders badly behind? Remember, this time, the progressive vote in the primaries won't be just Bernie's, but will be divided among others (Warren, Harris, etc.). Biden on the other hand is likely to gobble up most of the moderate voters.
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Bernie Sanders made up a 30 point lead in 2016 against Hillary, with the DNC thumb on the scale the whole time. So, I wouldn't place too much stock in polls right now. Also you have to look at the methodology of the polls. If it's all landlines it's not going to be a good sample.

Don't underestimate Conservative smears. Hillary lost the election (among other blunders, but did most closely lose it on this, since before it, she was ahead, then took a nose dive) on the Comey letter stating, 11 days before the election, that her emails were found in a convicted pedophile's laptop. The sheer association (something Hillary had nothing to do with; likely a blunder by her assistant, the spouse of said pedophile) disgusted many people. Now, Sanders has HIMSELF made some quite pedophile-like statements... which haven't been systematic exploited by attack ads. Trump is a specialist is smearing people and he shouldn't be underestimated in his ability to do so. I do think that if Sanders wins the nomination, we'll see him depicted as a pedophile. I'm fully aware that it's unfair, untrue, and hypocritical since Trump has supported a pedophile in GOP state primaries and has boasted about entering teenage girls' locker rooms when they were in a state of undress. But since when did fairness, truth, and refraining from hypocrisy, stop Trump??? His base doesn't care about what he does; the Dem base, however, does care about what their candidates do, as shown in Al Franken's case.
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Yes, the smear will come, but they also called Obama a Kenyan, Marxist, Muslim Brotherhood Terrorist. Should Obama have stepped aside because the Right was going to call him mean things? Of course not! Trump's one tactic is bullying people. And Sanders is immune to that. He would just clobber Trump over the head with policy substance and Trump would have no way to rebut.

And we are in a populist era of politics. The antidote to right wing populism IS NOT centrism. Centrism was rejected wholly in 2016. There is a global right wing, proto-fascist wave running hog wild. And more of the same is not the answer. Biden's neo-liberal, I agree with the Republicans on half the stuff anyway, shtick is stuck in 1990. The only way to combat right wing populism is with left wing populism. The right is capitalizing on real fears and insecurities in peoples lives. Fears and insecurities that were wrought by people like Joe Biden and Bill Clinton. They are so open to credible attack from the increasingly fascist right. And we cannot let the right exploit our nations fear and insecurities. They are driving this planet off a cliff.

You say that Biden embodies the establishment. Well, Biden is the least wealthy US Senator/former senator, did you know that? And people associate Biden with the Obama administration, and they miss Obama, who ended his two terms with very high approval ratings.
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People do love Obama, and I'm sure Biden will coast off nostalgia until the real examination starts.. just wait til the Iowa caucus, if Biden cleans house in Iowa I will concede he may be stronger than I thought.

I think America is tired and frightened after a few years of erratic Trump, and want a sort of calm leadership that won't make too many waves. That's Biden. That's not Sanders.
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I think America is more or less the same, because Trump's policies haven't improved anyone's life. And neo-liberalism is guaranteed to not do squat either. Trump hasn't started any wars, the economy hasn't crashed, I think if anything people are more accepting of Trump. The conclusion of the Mueller report was flat out embarassing for the Democrats. And if someone is going to beat Trump, an outsider will have an easier time. Trump is going to play the victim card, HARD, during the campaign. And if there's an establishment figure on the other end who literally cannot advocate for policy majority Americans support, it's going to make the debate into a Trump show. We need strong progressives that can make the debate about policy, not about Trump being a victim and "fighting back against the establishment". Cause he's gonna be playing that card the whole time.
 
GreatNews2night said:
LOL, I love it. Sanders' followers pretend that he is the choice of Americans. Guess what? In the key state of Pennsylvania, registered Democrats prefer Biden by 39%, while only 13% prefer Sanders (Harris 8%, Warren 8%, Buttigieg 6%, Booker 5%, the others 1% or less). 39% to 13%, LOL. Sanders is a loser, like I've been saying. He won't win the Dem primary, again. So, now what? Will his followers whine that it's the doing of the DNC, again? They are in denial that Dem primary voters did not want Sanders in 2016, and they won't want Sanders in 2020 either.

In a scenario Biden vs. Trump compared to Sanders vs. Trump, both beat Trump in Pennsylvania, but Biden does it by 11% while Sanders does it by 7%. Among independents, Biden leads Trump by an even bigger margin, 14%.

When asked which candidate people think is most likely to beat Trump, 61% picked Biden.

Come again? The people want Sanders? Nope. The people want Biden.

Biden ahead of Trump by double digits in key state of Pennsylvania, poll finds (and don't dismiss it because it's Yahoo; they merely reproduced the USA Today article).
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Biden throws a wrench in things for the progressive wing, THough he is only anhairs breath away from their thinking, he is still not progressive enough, and too white. But the progressive vote is being spliit between a handful of radicals, leaving Biden in the drivers seat.

There is a chance the progressive wing will pick on guy and rally around him, making it a two man race.
 
Simpletruther said:
Biden throws a wrench in things for the progressive wing, THough he is only anhairs breath away from their thinking, he is still not progressive enough, and too white. But the progressive vote is being spliit between a handful of radicals, leaving Biden in the drivers seat.

There is a chance the progressive wing will pick on guy and rally around him, making it a two man race.
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I laughed; not even remotely true.

tiquufm.jpg
 
Winston said:
Yes, the smear will come, but they also called Obama a Kenyan, Marxist, Muslim Brotherhood Terrorist. Should Obama have stepped aside because the Right was going to call him mean things? Of course not! Trump's one tactic is bullying people. And Sanders is immune to that. He would just clobber Trump over the head with policy substance and Trump would have no way to rebut.

And we are in a populist era of politics. The antidote to right wing populism IS NOT centrism. Centrism was rejected wholly in 2016. There is a global right wing, proto-fascist wave running hog wild. And more of the same is not the answer. Biden's neo-liberal, I agree with the Republicans on half the stuff anyway, shtick is stuck in 1990. The only way to combat right wing populism is with left wing populism. The right is capitalizing on real fears and insecurities in peoples lives. Fears and insecurities that were wrought by people like Joe Biden and Bill Clinton. They are so open to credible attack from the increasingly fascist right. And we cannot let the right exploit our nations fear and insecurities. They are driving this planet off a cliff.
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Completely agreed.

The only reason I didn't mention something along these lines is because I've pointed out this exact thing to GN2N at least three times or so already; I don't think he wants to acknowledge the fact.
 
Winston said:
Biden is coasting off of Obama's coattails. As soon as the people examine his lengthy and problematic record, his numbers will go down. Especially if he listens to his idiotic Democratic consultants, who don't have a clue on where the country is. If Biden runs a Clinton campaign, thinking we got this in the bag because they're all scary socialists on one side and scary fascists on the other, he's going to go down.
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I'll vote for whoever wins the nomination.

Will you?
 
OscarLevant said:
I'll vote for whoever wins the nomination.

Will you?
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Yeah, but only to defeat Republicans. As long as the Right continues to be unhinged, I have lost my luxury of voting Green.
 
Dems love hair huffing..girl fondling biden...I knew the Kavanaugh outrage was false...but it's good to see them eat it.
 
GreatNews2night said:
Very good points, except that I profoundly doubt that Sanders will be more appealing to registered Democrats in the primaries. Remember, he managed to lose even to Clinton, and in early polls, among registered Democrats he is getting only 13% of support. No, contrary to Sanders' rabid supporters, he is NOT appealing to the average Dem primary voter. He will lose the primaries again; mark my words. Then they'll whine about the DNC, again. But it's not the DNC. It's simply because the average Dem registered voter who attends the primaries is a bit more centrist than Sanders' base, which is made of youngsters, who are notoriously less reliable in terms of showing up to vote.

I'd bet my house that Sanders will lose the Dem primaries again.
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I don't like Bernie for president, though his heart is in the right place:

First, a lot of the luster of "feel the bern" is lost. His numbers have shrunk.

What I don't like about Bernie is that every time he appears on a townhall, interview, etc., he doesn't really banter, doesn't wing conversation well, he always falls onto a narrow bullet points he carries around with him. He does stick to the script, I will say that.

Also, when asked about what 'socialism' means, he NEVER defines it. He never dispells the right wing notion that Bernie wants USSR communism, Cuba styled, Venezuela, etc. He never explains what DS actually means, he just starts talking about policies, which are socialistic, only confirming right wing fears. ( I am for those pollicies, however, I would go out of my way to dispell the idea that they are socialism, and try and define socialism what it originally meant. In fact, today's "democratic socialists" aren't really socialists, they are progressives, or rather "social democrats". Bernie has done a fine job of mucking it all up withi the socialist label, making it harder for dems to present their case. )

Additionally, I think the socialist moniker was a strategic blunder of epic proportions, giving the right a hammer that they will beat upon his balding head and dems in general, for frickin' ever. Let's get it straight about what socialism is, it's state ownership of all the means of production and distribution, plus some other egalitarian ideals. Dems are for egalitariansim, but state ownership of everything? No dem I know is for that.

This gives the right the ammunition to claim that dems want "Venezuela", "Cuba", "USSR", etc. ANd it's a lie.

And they know that it is a lie, but all is fair in the blood sport called politics.

Kamala Harris rejects the label, as does Biden. They are both correct for doing it.

Another thing I don't like about Bernie is his failure to be a democrat. He spends his life being "independent" (which he isn't , he caucuses with dems 95% of the time ) and when it's convenient to be a democrat, take advantage of their caucus machinery which does not exist for independents, now that he is running for president and needs DNC machinery, he is a democrat.

I"m sorry Bernie, but that doesn't cut it.
 
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AlphaOmega said:
Dems love hair huffing..girl fondling biden...I knew the Kavanaugh outrage was false...but it's good to see them eat it.
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Dems love hair huffing..girl fondling biden.
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But if he was the pope no problem?

Okay.... so the guy is overall affectionate?
 
Luther said:
But if he was the pope no problem?

Okay.... so the guy is overall affectionate?
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no feel free to jail all people who fondle children. Biden is a creep who touches women and children innapropriately. If anyone else did what he has done we would have been sitting in a courtroom. If Kavanaugh got caught on video doing what Biden did thr left would be losing their minds over it. The question is...why arencha?
 
GreatNews2night said:
Very good points, except that I profoundly doubt that Sanders will be more appealing to registered Democrats in the primaries. Remember, he managed to lose even to Clinton, and in early polls, among registered Democrats he is getting only 13% of support. No, contrary to Sanders' rabid supporters, he is NOT appealing to the average Dem primary voter. He will lose the primaries again; mark my words. Then they'll whine about the DNC, again. But it's not the DNC. It's simply because the average Dem registered voter who attends the primaries is a bit more centrist than Sanders' base, which is made of youngsters, who are notoriously less reliable in terms of showing up to vote.

I'd bet my house that Sanders will lose the Dem primaries again.
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I wouldn't ask you to do that. But you make some good points which I go along with. Besides, Sanders was an independent although caucusing with the democrats prior to his run for the presidency in 2016 which he switched his registration to Democrat. Then right after the election he switched it back to independent.

So one could look at Sanders as not a true Democrat. I'd forgot about this: Democrats Favor More Moderate Party; GOP, More Conservative

Democrats Favor More Moderate Party; GOP, More Conservative

The only problem with that article and poll, was Gallup included Democratic leaning independents which in my opinion are more moderate than the rank and file full fledged Democratic base. Let's say I view Democratic leaning independents center left while the Democratic base is further left. Your opinion?
 
GreatNews2night said:
Another factor is that Bernie's ideas are expensive. They would require tax increases to have a remote chance of being implemented. Americans have a way of supporting some ideas when polled about them, but then, when they go to the secret ballot box, they think, "oh wait, will I have to personally pay higher taxes in order to have these ideas implemented? Hm... I don't think I'll vote for this guy, after all."

There was a famous poll (no, I don't have the link now) asking people if they were for universal healthcare. Most people said yes, that would be neat. Then the pollster asked, would you still be for it if it doubled your annual tax bill? Then people said, huh, in this case, no.
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That's a bad question to ask because it hasn't been determined if that is actually true, it's an assumption. Also, if the insurance premium is no longer being paid, is the tax more, or less than the premium?

Note that in other countries that have some variant of UHC, the per capita health care costs are roughly half of that of the US. So, I dont expect that if we had UHC, it would go down to half of what it is now, but the evidence doesn't support the idea that it will cost more.

The idea that will cost is free college. Now, in some states, such as California, a student can go practically free ( small entrance fee, pay for books, that's about it ) all the way to Sophomore in college. All the cost is the 3rd and 4th year. (Transfering to junior year from community college to a 4 year college ).

But there is a society benefit which may more than offset the higher tax for the 3rd and 4th years of college,
and that is students ill not be burdened by debt. So, disposable income rises drastically, for this group, not to mention that the stress of the student loan, well, for many, distress can translate to health problems, at a cost to society, which would no longer be present if Bernie's policy on education is enacted.

Medicare for all is just replacing insurance premiums for a tax, and the question is, will the tax be more, or less than the previous premium?

Without a management layer administering the insurance, it seems to me the tax would be less, if paid collectively by everyone.

On the issue of UHC, note that health care dollars are already being spent. A new system isn't add on, it's putting a scoop in the river and redirecting the that particular flow ( of money already being spent ).
 
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AlphaOmega said:
no feel free to jail all people who fondle children. Biden is a creep who touches women and children innapropriately. If anyone else did what he has done we would have been sitting in a courtroom. If Kavanaugh got caught on video doing what Biden did thr left would be losing their minds over it. The question is...why arencha?
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Answer: Because dems think he can beat Trump so they will look the other way on everything. The funny part is, Biden is perhaps the weakest of their candidates. If he is the nominee, he will lose to Trump in 2020.
 
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