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Poll: 30% Of Conservatives, 15% Of GOP Say They Won’t Vote For Trump

uptower said:
I suspect there'll be a lot more waiting than seeing. These proposed investigations into Obama figures are about as earnest as the voter fraud commission was. They'll die and equally quiet death. The only purpose in even mentioning them is to deflect for a news cycle or two.
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Ah, but the right can play up whatever they've got, just like the Dems have been doing for over two years now, making mountains out of mole hills. Two can play that game.
 
DaveFagan said:
They'll sway public opinion with truth. Could be a little trouble for Trump.
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The 2016 election proved that Americans aren't going to be swayed by the fake news media, who don't report the truth.
 
Perotista said:
While I agree that Trump will be hard pressed to win in 2020, but that all depends on whom the Democrats nominate. That said, what does this poll really mean? Probably not much. Remember prior to the 2016 election and all the uproar about the never Trumpers. About all those Republicans who were going to vote for Clinton. Here's something to think about. 75% of republicans viewed Trump favorable the day before the 2016 election. 24% viewed him unfavorably. The talk was most of those 24% were never Trumpers, thus Hillary would win. Question 11.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l37rosbwjp/econTabReport_lv.pdf

Yet on election day, Trump won 88% of the GOP vote, Hillary 8% with 4% voting third party. This means at least half of those who had a negative view of Trump voted for him, another 17% who had a negative view Trump voted third voted third party instead of for Hillary. Hillary did garner a third of those who viewed Trump negatively or unfavorably. What's worse is that 30% of conservatives view Trump negatively on election day, 69% of conservatives view him favorably. On election Day Trump received 81% of the conservative vote, Clinton 16%. Hillary received only half of all conservatives who viewed Trump negatively, unfavorable.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

Your poll comes close to the day before election day poll. But in the end, Trump did receive around half of all those Republicans and conservative votes who had an unfavorable opinion or negative view of him. Why? I think it goes back to: My candidate sucks, but he doesn't suck as bad as yours. Or that no matter how bad my party's candidates is, he is still better than yours.

If you go back to Question 10, the first link, you'll see 88% of Republicans had an unfavorable view of Hillary Clinton. That is the exact percentage of the Republican vote Trump received. We many not like Trump, but we dislike Hillary more or as Republicans we dislike our GOP candidate, but we really, really disliked the Democrat candidate more. More telling is that 7% of Republicans viewed Hillary favorably, she received 8% of the Republican vote. 7% of Democrats viewed Trump favorably, he also received 8% of the democratic vote.

Bottom line, I wouldn't read too much into your poll. Probably half of those who say they won't vote for Trump will. A quarter probably would vote third party if they don't vote for Trump before they would vote Democratic which in reality doesn't leave you with that many actually voting for your candidate.
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It has to be mentioned for the 2020 who-is-likely-to-win speculation that in 2016 the Democrats only won 6 seats in the House but in 2018 they won 41 seats. That is almost 7 times more than in 2016 and does suggest that such a difference will also be seen in 2020. It is doubtful though, that such a difference will be seen when it comes to the President himself but then again a shift of only a small percentage against Trump is all that is needed.

On the other side of the coin, it is highly unlikely that the economic boom that was seen under Trump will change the minds of many Democrats toward voting for Trump, especially given that Trump's poll numbers since he took office has remained "constantly" low, meaning that the economy has not given Trump any new voters.

Any way you look at it, the numbers do not support Trump winning again.
 
Middle_Ground said:
You know last year I told my family....Mueller shmuller...wait until April 15th 2019...you just wait until these people see the $2-20 per week extra in their paychecks meant a 2-4k decrease in refund you'll see lots of defectors.
Mueller report came about a week after tax day.
Now there's a big push to change withholding so April 15th 2020 won't look so bad.
Its pocketbook issues alright.
Too much nuance with all this conspiracy, obstruction stuff.
By the 2020 election I believe it will be 70% Republican support unless theirs a war or some horrific event.
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The big push to change withholding is to more accurately reflect how much you should be withholding from your checks. In other words, the people who needed to pay more this last year won't have to pay so much and others will get smaller refunds than they ever have before. It has always been insane for people to get back huge refunds. It's rather stupid that the poor who can't even live paycheck to paycheck get a six thousand dollar refund from the IRS. Now they will get much more on their checks to live on and will get a $500 refund next year instead of six thousand. So, you're conclusion about the big push to change withholding is actually bass ackwards. And, of course, the left and the media next year will be blasting the Republican tax plan for screwing Americans out of their huge refunds.
 
snakestretcher said:
Well, when you have a leader who exhibits all of the above I guess all options are on the table. If he wants to fight dirty he can have some back.
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Did you know that the Obama administration was conducting illegal NSA database queries as far back as 2012? If you want to talk about dirty...that's about as dirty as you can get.

Oh...and Obama wasn't looking for stuff on Trump back then. His people didn't start that until 2015. And that was only the beginning of the unethical, immoral and outright illegal means they used to accomplish their ends. And they failed.
 
Luckyone said:
It has to be mentioned for the 2020 who-is-likely-to-win speculation that in 2016 the Democrats only won 6 seats in the House but in 2018 they won 41 seats. That is almost 7 times more than in 2016 and does suggest that such a difference will also be seen in 2020. It is doubtful though, that such a difference will be seen when it comes to the President himself but then again a shift of only a small percentage against Trump is all that is needed.

On the other side of the coin, it is highly unlikely that the economic boom that was seen under Trump will change the minds of many Democrats toward voting for Trump, especially given that Trump's poll numbers since he took office has remained "constantly" low, meaning that the economy has not given Trump any new voters.

Any way you look at it, the numbers do not support Trump winning again.
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The difference in the House races was in 2016, independents voted for the Republican congressional candidates by a 51-47 margin. In 2018 independents switched to the Democratic congressional candidates 54-42. Plus one should remember that the Republicans were over extended in the House holding some historical Democratic districts, throw in 40 or so GOP incumbent retirements from the house, it all figures in. Now isn't it interesting that independents in 2016 went GOP House candidates 51-47, went for Trump 46-42 over Hillary with 12% voting third party. Most of those 12% were voting against both Trump and Clinton, they disliked both. In fact 54% of independents disliked both major party candidates.

One in Four Americans Dislike Both Presidential Candidates

I've been saying that 2020 all depends on whom the Democrats nominate. There is always the possibility that the democrats could nominate another candidate as disliked as Trump was by America as a whole or even more disliked by independents who usually decide close races. Of course the Democrats could very well nominate a candidate very attractive to Independents which leads to a landslide election for them with the possibility of regaining the senate. Hillary was really, really disliked by independents, even much more than Trump. Trump wasn't that liked or wanted by indies, 40% viewed him favorably, 57% unfavorably on election day. But 27% of independents viewed Hillary favorably to 70% unfavorably. Questions 10 and 11.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l37rosbwjp/econTabReport_lv.pdf

Many reasons for that dislike. Now looking at the numbers for 2020, way too far out to draw any concrete conclusions, just hunches and guesses. I would say at this point, 75% of announced Democrats should/could win easily over Trump. But the remaining 25% would let Trump back into the game. I'm just going by the likes and dislikes of independents on them. Those that have enough data as most are too unknown. Call it a gut feeling on the Democratic field as a whole today.

Bottom line 2020 is an election for the Democrats to lose. I don't think Trump can win it, but with the wrong candidate the Democrats could lose it. But so too was 2016. My take so far, anyway.
 
Moderate Right said:
The big push to change withholding is to more accurately reflect how much you should be withholding from your checks. In other words, the people who needed to pay more this last year won't have to pay so much and others will get smaller refunds than they ever have before. It has always been insane for people to get back huge refunds. It's rather stupid that the poor who can't even live paycheck to paycheck get a six thousand dollar refund from the IRS. Now they will get much more on their checks to live on and will get a $500 refund next year instead of six thousand. So, you're conclusion about the big push to change withholding is actually bass ackwards. And, of course, the left and the media next year will be blasting the Republican tax plan for screwing Americans out of their huge refunds.
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I have no idea what the media had to do with anything I said. I'm talking about actual real life people not social media not what some stranger said I actually live in the real world.
One friend said I feel like I got robbed I don't know how they did it but they did she said I got an extra $396 in my paycheck for the year and then I owed the government $800. They could of kept that $400 and given me my $1000 refund I've gotten since my kids went to college.
My own daughter got $1560 extra for the year she actually put that money away for a vacation but sadly she had to write a check for $2200 instead.
So yeah the shell game of a tax cut for some did not work out.
But that's all the medias fault of course, dems fault, everyone but the Republican tax plan.
 
Middle_Ground said:
I have no idea what the media had to do with anything I said. I'm talking about actual real life people not social media not what some stranger said I actually live in the real world.
One friend said I feel like I got robbed I don't know how they did it but they did she said I got an extra $396 in my paycheck for the year and then I owed the government $800. They could of kept that $400 and given me my $1000 refund I've gotten since my kids went to college.
My own daughter got $1560 extra for the year she actually put that money away for a vacation but sadly she had to write a check for $2200 instead.
So yeah the shell game of a tax cut for some did not work out.
But that's all the medias fault of course, dems fault, everyone but the Republican tax plan.
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The left and the left media bang the anti-Trump drums any chance they get. Most all taxpayers paid less taxes under the new plan. Refund amounts don't have anything to do with your tax liability. About the only ones who actually lost under the new plan are those who live in high tax states who had their SALT capped at $10,000. Of course, most everyone's personal situations change from year to year so it's hard to make exact comparisons unless everything is exactly the same as the previous year. That rarely happens. Fact is, most Americans are downright stupid when it comes to their finances and taxes. And, you had it completely backwards when you implied that the push to change withholding is actually some sort of a Republican plot to give Americans bigger tax refunds next year when, in fact, the opposite is true. It is the IRS who is wanting to update withholding information to more accurately effect taxes due, not Republicans. And, this adjustment is going to make it so that Americans don't get huge refunds the following year so that they have more money to live on throughout the year.
 
Moderate Right said:
The 2016 election proved that Americans aren't going to be swayed by the fake news media, who don't report the truth.
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The 2016 election proved, once again, that the USA is not a functional DEMOCRACY.
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Moderate Right said:
The left and the left media bang the anti-Trump drums any chance they get. Most all taxpayers paid less taxes under the new plan. Refund amounts don't have anything to do with your tax liability. About the only ones who actually lost under the new plan are those who live in high tax states who had their SALT capped at $10,000. Of course, most everyone's personal situations change from year to year so it's hard to make exact comparisons unless everything is exactly the same as the previous year. That rarely happens. Fact is, most Americans are downright stupid when it comes to their finances and taxes. And, you had it completely backwards when you implied that the push to change withholding is actually some sort of a Republican plot to give Americans bigger tax refunds next year when, in fact, the opposite is true. It is the IRS who is wanting to update withholding information to more accurately effect taxes due, not Republicans. And, this adjustment is going to make it so that Americans don't get huge refunds the following year so that they have more money to live on throughout the year.
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Okay again I'm talking about real people not the media. I'm talking about people without children and or salt deductions. Every family with children that I know haven't complained so I assume they got some break. Those without kids are not happy. My friends live in Colorado and Georgia, my kids live in Massachusetts all 3 states with differing tax situations.
Of my kids 1 had to pay, the other upped her withholding to the previous year and she had $0 refund and liability. Possibly if she could still deduct what she spent on her kids (shes a teacher) she would have gotten a refund as in past years. But that was removed for teachers.
Actually my friend on Georgia is most pissed, paying more in federal tax while her property tax goes up all the while shes trying to get a better job and she can't, she was a Trump voter and supported some of his policies until tax day. Now not so much. I doubt she'll vote for a Democrat or join any resistance group I think she'll just stay home or vote down ballot next election.
But you go right ahead and think everyone's stupid and watching the media.
 
Mycroft said:
Don't pin your hopes on a poll, especially on a poll 19 months out from the election.

And keep in mind that, in the next couple months, we will be finding out about some of the things the corrupt Obama administration did.

Of course, that doesn't mean Trump is a slam dunk to win, either. The Dems aren't stupid. They won't stop trying to sway public opinion with nonsense.

I suggest you wait and see. That's what I'll be doing.
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Do you have anything, other than wishful thinking, to base that on?

By the way, the citizens of Trump Fan Nation have a very comical habit of thinking their fellow citizens are stupid. You actually think millions of people are going to go into the voting booth in 2020 and say "I want to cast a vote against Obama so I'll vote for Trump".
 
Moderate Right said:
You guys just never learn anything. You thought this same **** in 2016. Believe me, when voters are in the privacy of their voting booth and the choices are Trump and a socialist, Trump wins.
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If they believe Trump's lies.

Things are quite different now. Trump's lies and hyperbole is now quite evident to the middle who elected him.

Hillary will not be his opponent. Most likely Biden will be his opponent.
 
Mycroft said:
Do you have anything, other than wishful thinking, to base that opinion on?
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The fact that a GOP-led congress had two years and didn't bother. No genuine alarm bells raised, no serious legal minds accusing or investigations going back and digging into the past administration. And the fact that the election fraud commission did indeed die quietly and get buried in an unmarked grave. And the fact that apart from a little lofty talk, I see no real steps being taken in that direction. As usual and as we know, Trump makes a grand pronouncement and his subordinates quietly ignore it. So yes let's wait and see. It is already plainly evident we won't see much.
 
uptower said:
The fact that a GOP-led congress had two years and didn't bother. No genuine alarm bells raised, no serious legal minds accusing or investigations going back and digging into the past administration. And the fact that the election fraud commission did indeed die quietly and get buried in an unmarked grave. And the fact that apart from a little lofty talk, I see no real steps being taken in that direction. As usual and as we know, Trump makes a grand pronouncement and his subordinates quietly ignore it. So yes let's wait and see. It is already plainly evident we won't see much.
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It's not up to Congress to press charges. Heck, Congress doesn't have the ability to press charges. However, Congress has sounded alarms...you just don't know about it because the media hasn't told you about it.

Tell me...are you aware of the letter that Congressional members sent to Barr recommending charges be brought against certain individuals in the previous Obama administration? Probably not. They did send the letter, but the media didn't say much about it.

But rest assured, Barr got the letter. It will be up to him if he proceeds with their recommendation...and when.
 
Middle_Ground said:
Okay again I'm talking about real people not the media. I'm talking about people without children and or salt deductions. Every family with children that I know haven't complained so I assume they got some break. Those without kids are not happy. My friends live in Colorado and Georgia, my kids live in Massachusetts all 3 states with differing tax situations.
Of my kids 1 had to pay, the other upped her withholding to the previous year and she had $0 refund and liability. Possibly if she could still deduct what she spent on her kids (shes a teacher) she would have gotten a refund as in past years. But that was removed for teachers.
Actually my friend on Georgia is most pissed, paying more in federal tax while her property tax goes up all the while shes trying to get a better job and she can't, she was a Trump voter and supported some of his policies until tax day. Now not so much. I doubt she'll vote for a Democrat or join any resistance group I think she'll just stay home or vote down ballot next election.
But you go right ahead and think everyone's stupid and watching the media.
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Americans are stupid. The amount of your refund or how much you have to pay at the end of the year means nothing. What matters is your tax liability and what that was compared to the previous year, assuming that everything in your life is the same as the previous year. People are simple minded if the only thing they are smart enough to figure out is what their refund was compared to the last year or if they had to pay in or not.
 
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