Trump announces the USMCA would not be worth the paper it's printed on.

Amelia said:

No, it's not just details. It's specific details. Mexico and Canada wanted greater protection against tariffs in general and were disappointed, but they managed to get these very specific assurances and Trump just threatened to "supersede" them.

I don't usually talk to you but yesterday I gave it a shot. I met your demands. When you claimed the promises weren't made to Mexico, I gave you links showing they were. I gave you text. And now you blow off specific numbers as just details.

You're very committed to deflecting for Trump. I know this. But Mexico and Canada don't think this is nothing. And Trump just screwed his chance of winning a replacement for NAFTA. All by his lonesome he stepped on his moldy dick. Another Trumpian unforced error.

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I'd say the bolded is pretty damn accurate.

No way will Congress pass the USMCA, after this. And from here on out, any negotiations with our trading partners would only be holding & placating Trump, until he's out of office and substantive negotiations can then take place with subsequent administrations.

j brown's body said:

I wonder what action Mexico took....

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I suspect they were about as substantive as the one's DPRK took ...

Trump's ability to blow off his own knee caps grows daily. Gee, wonder why he is so gobsmackingly screwed up lately. Been watching him for a long time and he has always been pretty predictably able to hold it together enough to at least protect himself. Now....not so much.

Thingfish said:

When is the tariff Ever factored in, it’s a last resort and not part of the deal. Trump is just giving them a heads up when he making deals he’s honest to a fault. He’s also a patriot.

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//// he's ( Trump ) is honest to a fault //// <------ Did you hear about Trump lying about where his father was born multiple times ? Is that what you consider being 'honest to a fault' ? :thinking

jnug said:

No Mexico didn't. They have not done a darned thing differently these last few weeks. More DonDon dilution and fantasy. The Trump Presidency as Reality TV and Charade is in full bloom now.

Now Trump is so caught up in his own desire to tweak his base that he can no longer calculate how damaging he is to his own prospects for reelection which also amount to his own prospects for not being buried in criminal prosecution for the rest of his life.

DonDon has finally lost it completely. Cuckoo....Cuckoo....Cuckoo

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Here's how I see it:

"When your using Trump's words as an evidentiary source - in support of your argument - you've got problems!"

jnug said:

Trump's ability to blow off his own knee caps grows daily. Gee, wonder why he is so gobsmackingly screwed up lately. Been watching him for a long time and he has always been pretty predictably able to hold it together enough to at least protect himself. Now....not so much.

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You know, from what you've shared with us, you appear to have far more observation into Trump's behaviour - than those of us that watched him from afar.

We're depending upon you! :mrgreen:

Logician Man said:

//// he's ( Trump ) is honest to a fault //// <------ Did you hear about Trump lying about where his father was born multiple times ? Is that what you consider being 'honest to a fault' ? :thinking

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OMG! Trump was "honestly" telling us Obama has no birth cert? :lamo

Geezus Krist on a Cracker, who are these guys we're debating here?

jnug said:

Trump's ability to blow off his own knee caps grows daily. Gee, wonder why he is so gobsmackingly screwed up lately. Been watching him for a long time and he has always been pretty predictably able to hold it together enough to at least protect himself. Now....not so much.

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He's now having to worry about the American populace learning just what it is he is so hell bent on hiding in his tax returns. His 'Red Line' may very well be crossed, and he knows if that happens he may very well lose many supporters, including some, or most of his base. He probably hasn't paid any federal income taxes in decades.

Chomsky said:

I'd say the bolded is pretty damn accurate.

No way will Congress pass the USMCA, after this. And from here on out, any negotiations with our trading partners would only be holding & placating Trump, until he's out of office and substantive negotiations can then take place with subsequent administrations.

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Exactly. They would be fools to handle it any other way. And they're not fools.

Logician Man said:

//// he's ( Trump ) is honest to a fault //// <------ Did you hear about Trump lying about where his father was born multiple times ? Is that what you consider being 'honest to a fault' ? :thinking

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yes, like I said, to a fault, as in he says what’s on his mind...like tariffs.

Thingfish said:

yes, like I said, to a fault, as in he says what’s on his mind...like tariffs.

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And just what did you think was on Trump's mind all those times he lied about where his father was born ?

Chomsky said:

I agree.

1] I don't see Trump winning those three tight states again (MI, WI, PA), barring a Dem meltdown or their fielding a piss-poor candidate.

2] And while you are right that Indies were a huge factor in the 2016 election, we can't forget those Trump Dems that crossed over just like the Reagan Dems back in the day. But I see some of them, particularly women- especially suburban women - edging their way back.

In support of both of my statements above, I present the 2018 Congressional elections.

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Personally, I think Democrats crossing over to Trump is way over rated. Fact is Hillary won her Democratic base 89-8 over Trump with 3% voting third party. Trump won the Republican base 88-8 over Hillary with 4% voting third party.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president

On average history show approximately 90% of those who identify with each party vote for their party's nominee or candidate.

With Reagan, it was sure different.
1980 Democrats went 67-27 Carter over Reagan. Republicans went 85-11 Reagan over Carter.
1984 Democrats 74-26 Mondale over Reagan. Republicans 93-7 Reagan over Mondale.

Independents went for Reagan 56-31 in 1980 and in 1984 64-36 Reagan over Mondale.

When you lose a quarter of your base to your opponent along with independents, you're going to get whipped big time which is what happened. If you scroll through CNN's exit polls you'll find out on average Hillary received 4-5 points less than Obama did in 2012 among almost every voting group. Trump received almost the same percentage as Romney give or take a point or two. The big difference was Hillary lost those points, votes to third party candidates. Especially the independent voters which 12% of them voted third party.

The classic example since I mention union households was in 2012 Obama won them 58-40 with 2% voting third party. In 2016 Clinton won them 51-42 with 7% voting third party. Trump increased his portion of the union household vote by only 2 points over Romney's total. But Hillary dropped 7 points from Obama's. Third party candidates rose 5 points. That 9 point swing away from the Democrats, Hillary, probably was one of the main causes she lost Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Union households didn't embrace Trump anymore than they embraced Romney. But Hillary lost a lot of their support to third party candidates. Chalk that up to the dislike of Hillary, but not enough to vote for Trump. Enough to vote third party though.

Amelia said:

Exactly. They would be fools to handle it any other way. And they're not fools.

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And in the meanwhile, we become further isolated ...

Perotista said:

Personally, I think Democrats crossing over to Trump is way over rated. Fact is Hillary won her Democratic base 89-8 over Trump with 3% voting third party. Trump won the Republican base 88-8 over Hillary with 4% voting third party.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president

On average history show approximately 90% of those who identify with each party vote for their party's nominee or candidate.

With Reagan, it was sure different.
1980 Democrats went 67-27 Carter over Reagan. Republicans went 85-11 Reagan over Carter.
1984 Democrats 74-26 Mondale over Reagan. Republicans 93-7 Reagan over Mondale.

Independents went for Reagan 56-31 in 1980 and in 1984 64-36 Reagan over Mondale.

When you lose a quarter of your base to your opponent along with independents, you're going to get whipped big time which is what happened. If you scroll through CNN's exit polls you'll find out on average Hillary received 4-5 points less than Obama did in 2012 among almost every voting group. Trump received almost the same percentage as Romney give or take a point or two. The big difference was Hillary lost those points, votes to third party candidates. Especially the independent voters which 12% of them voted third party.

The classic example since I mention union households was in 2012 Obama won them 58-40 with 2% voting third party. In 2016 Clinton won them 51-42 with 7% voting third party. Trump increased his portion of the union household vote by only 2 points over Romney's total. But Hillary dropped 7 points from Obama's. Third party candidates rose 5 points. That 9 point swing away from the Democrats, Hillary, probably was one of the main causes she lost Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Union households didn't embrace Trump anymore than they embraced Romney. But Hillary lost a lot of their support to third party candidates. Chalk that up to the dislike of Hillary, but not enough to vote for Trump. Enough to vote third party though.

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Thanks for the excellent post, Perotista! :thumbs:

I said it before, and I'll say it again: "You always back-up your posts with extensive quantitative data, and I greatly respect that". So thanks for that, too.

If you're data's accurate (I have no reason to doubt it), then I very much agree. There was a loss of Indies, but a large component seems to have been a tepid Dem turnout for Hillary.

My suspicion is this time the Dem rank & file will coalesce more strongly in support of the nominee (due to the anti-Trump effect).

Chomsky said:

You know, from what you've shared with us, you appear to have far more observation into Trump's behaviour - than those of us that watched him from afar.

We're depending upon you! :mrgreen:

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Well for one thing the ultimate band-aid to all things DonDon throughout his life is gone....DADDY FRED. DonDon is left with a bunch of self-aggradizing sycophants and various and sundry offspring that could not hold a candle to Fred in a number of ways. Its Fred that not only protected DonDon but taught him to keep to his own....the cutthroats, grifters and thieves that he ran with be they white collar or some other collar. Those guys might abandon each other under pain of criminal prosecution but not under any other circumstances. Politicians, they will abandon DonDon just based on political reality which to a guy like Donald seems trivial compared to threat of criminal prosecution. That is why running for public office was such a big mistake for DonDon. Fred is dead and DonDon had to leave his previous allies in his wake just to run and most particularly to hold office. See Michael Cohen.

The political sycophants (re. political allies) will ride Trump all the way to the "political" bottom and then when all hope is finally lost that they can ride DonDon's coattails to another term in office, that is when they will finally say en masse "Donald Who". Not before then. Not even a second before then.

Even now you can see Republican's preparing the ground for a quick exit from Trumpville if they have to make it. But those guys will extract every last drop of blood they can out of the Trump train before they jump off and they will only jump off when its painfully obvious that they have to jump off. See Mitch McConnell for point of reference.

Thingfish said:

yes, like I said, to a fault, as in he says what’s on his mind...like tariffs.

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If what is on his mind is false, then it is not honesty to say it.

Trump's wealth has given him more opportunities than most to learn actual facts and history, yet he shows extreme disregard for facts.

He makes things up as he goes.

The thing about him repeatedly claiming that his father was born in Germany -- not the worst lie to tell -- but still a lie. There's something very wrong with him. A normal person would find it very challenging to be wrong as often as he is.

ElChupacabra said:

As in a token gesture? The broader issue is Mexico doing something substantive to combat migration through their southern border. Until that's done effectively, this could just be a one time show. Given their ineffectiveness at combating drug cartels, I doubt they'll be any more effective policing their own border.

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That's why Trump is giving them a year.

Chomsky said:

Thanks for the excellent post, Perotista! :thumbs:

I said it before, and I'll say it again: "You always back-up your posts with extensive quantitative data, and I greatly respect that". So thanks for that, too.

If you're data's accurate (I have no reason to doubt it), then I very much agree. There was a loss of Indies, but a large component seems to have been a tepid Dem turnout for Hillary.

My suspicion is this time the Dem rank & file will coalesce more strongly in support of the nominee (due to the anti-Trump effect).

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I agree. The Trump factor was huge in the 2018 midterm and will be again in 2020. You're also correct about turn out. 38% of the turnout in 2012 identified with the Democratic Party, 36% did in 2016. Republicans, 2012 32% of the turnout, 33% in 2016. That's a drop from a six point advantage in 2012 to a 3 point advantage in 2016 for the Democrats. Now in 2018 the Democrats had that same three point advantage, 36-33 over the Republicans in turnout.

Exit Polls 2018

Since 2018 wasn't a presidential year, look at the house numbers. 2016 independents went to the Republican congressional candidates by a 51-47 margin enabling them to retain control of the house. In 2018, independents switched to the Democratic congressional candidate 54-42. That is a huge 16 point swing in favor of the Democrats among independents. Easily enough for the blue wave of 2018.

Look at how independents voted in House elections where control changed parties. In the blue wave of 2006, independents went Democratic 57-39. The red wave of 2010 they went Republican 56-37 and in 2018, democratic 54-42.

As for the numbers, historical references always useful in doing my forecasts. Sometimes history lays an egg as in the case of Trump winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. I never seen that coming. I wasn't alone it that. In those three states, I relied too much on history. Although there were indications that it very well could happen. Trafalgar poll taken on 6 November had Trump up by one in Pennsylvania and tied in Michigan. The last poll taken in Wisconsin was at the end of October, useless. Even RCP showed the trend in Trump's favor, Hillary had an 7 point lead in mid October which was narrowed to 2 points on 4 Nov and finished at 3 points 8 Nov.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

for 2012, there's one potential candidate on the Democratic side independents really don't like. They dislike her even more than Trump which is saying a lot. Independents give Warren a 26% favorable, 44% unfavorable. minus 18 which has been constant over the last month or two. Question 21R. Trump is at 43% favorable, 46% unfavorable, only a minus 3. Question 40A.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/t1fl59zsim/econTabReport.pdf

That's the highest favorable rating Trump has had since the end of January 2017 when he was at 44% among independents. His minus 3 is also the lowest Trump has had since then.

Amelia said:

If what is on his mind is false, then it is not honesty to say it.

Trump's wealth has given him more opportunities than most to learn actual facts and history, yet he shows extreme disregard for facts.

He makes things up as he goes.

The thing about him repeatedly claiming that his father was born in Germany -- not the worst lie to tell -- but still a lie. There's something very wrong with him. A normal person would find it very challenging to be wrong as often as he is.

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no argument here, you’re right, guys a dip stick.

Logician Man said:

And just what did you think was on Trump's mind all those times he lied about where his father was born ?

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to be honest I’m taking your word on this one, I never heard this before. It’s very strange indeed.