Where is the Democratic Party Really At?

[TrueScotsman]

Take polling with a grain of salt, but here is the outcome of the latest polling.

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
Monmouth
Biden 28, Sanders 25, Harris 10, Warren 8, Booker 5, O'Rourke 6, Klobuchar 3, Hickenlooper 1, Castro 1, Gabbard 0, Gillibrand 0, Inslee 0 Biden +3
Source: RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest Polls

It seems there is a lot of support for progressive politicians. The question is though what happens to the moderate faction of the party should the minority progressive faction win the primaries?

I think this gallup poll illustrates a polarizing effect which is happening particularly on the Right, and it is causing perhaps a moderating force on Democrats.

54% of Democrats want their party to be more moderate; 41%, more liberal
57% of Republicans want their party to be more conservative; 37%, more moderate
Source: Democrats Favor More Moderate Party; GOP, More Conservative

My two cents on the matter, it was clear in my caucuses in Washington State where I became a Congressional Delegate for Bernie in 2016 that all the energy was behind the progressive branch. I think this was clearly a symptom though of the kind of coastal bubbles which exist at the moment, and I have grown more doubtful of both the progressive agenda and their ability to deliver victory on the national scale.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Take polling with a grain of salt, but here is the outcome of the latest polling.

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
Monmouth
Biden 28, Sanders 25, Harris 10, Warren 8, Booker 5, O'Rourke 6, Klobuchar 3, Hickenlooper 1, Castro 1, Gabbard 0, Gillibrand 0, Inslee 0 Biden +3
Source: RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest Polls

It seems there is a lot of support for progressive politicians. The question is though what happens to the moderate faction of the party should the minority progressive faction win the primaries?

I think this gallup poll illustrates a polarizing effect which is happening particularly on the Right, and it is causing perhaps a moderating force on Democrats.

54% of Democrats want their party to be more moderate; 41%, more liberal
57% of Republicans want their party to be more conservative; 37%, more moderate
Source: Democrats Favor More Moderate Party; GOP, More Conservative

My two cents on the matter, it was clear in my caucuses in Washington State where I became a Congressional Delegate for Bernie in 2016 that all the energy was behind the progressive branch. I think this was clearly a symptom though of the kind of coastal bubbles which exist at the moment, and I have grown more doubtful of both the progressive agenda and their ability to deliver victory on the national scale.

Although I would vote for him if Bernie was the official Democrat candidate, Sanders generally leans too far left for me. Just sayin'.

 

[Cardinal]

My only position is that I will vote for whoever wins the Democratic Primary. Period.

Well, it's not my only position, but it's the one that will ultimately have consequence.

 

[TrueScotsman]

Although I would vote for him if Bernie was the official Democrat candidate, Sanders generally leans too far left for me. Just sayin'.

I thought Hillary was too toxic politically to tolerate winning the nomination. Too long a target of the Fox News apparatus. He is also I think a decent person, which is why I voted for him, believing he wouldn't get more than 10% of what he promised fulfilled.

 

[TrueScotsman]

My only position is that I will vote for whoever wins the Democratic Primary. Period.

Well, it's not my only position, but it's the one that will ultimately have consequence.

Agreed, but whoever wins or loses could fracture the party. Many Bernie folks threw the election to Trump after how they lost the primary, Wikileaks really hurt Hillary with his base.

 

[Cardinal]

Agreed, but whoever wins or loses could fracture the party. Many Bernie folks threw the election to Trump after how they lost the primary, Wikileaks really hurt Hillary with his base.

If, after four years of Trump, a Democratic Primary winner fractures the party, then we as a country no longer deserve to have a democracy.

 

[TrueScotsman]

If, after four years of Trump, a Democratic Primary winner fractures the party, then we as a country no longer deserve to have a democracy.

The Weimar Republic couldn't get its act together in the face of Fascism, the Social Democrats and Communists couldn't unite to save themselves. And I fear much of the center could flee into the arms of the Far-Right in order to save the status quo.

We are also nearing the end of the long term debt cycle, just like the 1930s, with deflationary forces creating political monsters. Democracy is the most fragile of flowers, we should be vigilant to preserve it in this hour. Which is why I am being vary wary of the prospects of particular candidates. Winning is so important right now.

 

[Praxas]

Agreed, but whoever wins or loses could fracture the party. Many Bernie folks threw the election to Trump after how they lost the primary, Wikileaks really hurt Hillary with his base.

Seeing as how people saw the results of a fractured party (trump getting two conservative scotus through with another on the line) I doubt you will see the same fracturing as was in 2016. I don’t care who wins but I will vote for them against trump. And any other left leaning person will as well knowing what’s on the line.

 

[Cardinal]

The Weimar Republic couldn't get its act together in the face of Fascism, the Social Democrats and Communists couldn't unite to save themselves. And I fear much of the center could flee into the arms of the Far-Right in order to save the status quo.

We are also nearing the end of the long term debt cycle, just like the 1930s, with deflationary forces creating political monsters. Democracy is the most fragile of flowers, we should be vigilant to preserve it in this hour. Which is why I am being vary wary of the prospects of particular candidates. Winning is so important right now.

If winning is so important, then the predominant theme needs to be uniting behind whoever wins the Primary. This will be helped during the runup to the primary by arguing in favor of your preferred Democratic candidate rather than trashing the ones you don't like.

 

[Bullseye]

Take polling with a grain of salt, but here is the outcome of the latest polling.

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
Monmouth
Biden 28, Sanders 25, Harris 10, Warren 8, Booker 5, O'Rourke 6, Klobuchar 3, Hickenlooper 1, Castro 1, Gabbard 0, Gillibrand 0, Inslee 0 Biden +3
Source: RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest Polls

It seems there is a lot of support for progressive politicians. The question is though what happens to the moderate faction of the party should the minority progressive faction win the primaries?

I think this gallup poll illustrates a polarizing effect which is happening particularly on the Right, and it is causing perhaps a moderating force on Democrats.

54% of Democrats want their party to be more moderate; 41%, more liberal
57% of Republicans want their party to be more conservative; 37%, more moderate
Source: Democrats Favor More Moderate Party; GOP, More Conservative

My two cents on the matter, it was clear in my caucuses in Washington State where I became a Congressional Delegate for Bernie in 2016 that all the energy was behind the progressive branch. I think this was clearly a symptom though of the kind of coastal bubbles which exist at the moment, and I have grown more doubtful of both the progressive agenda and their ability to deliver victory on the national scale.

Are there any non-progressive/socialist Dems running?

 

[Chomsky]

Take polling with a grain of salt, but here is the outcome of the latest polling.

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
Monmouth
Biden 28, Sanders 25, Harris 10, Warren 8, Booker 5, O'Rourke 6, Klobuchar 3, Hickenlooper 1, Castro 1, Gabbard 0, Gillibrand 0, Inslee 0 Biden +3
Source: RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest Polls

It seems there is a lot of support for progressive politicians. The question is though what happens to the moderate faction of the party should the minority progressive faction win the primaries?

I think this gallup poll illustrates a polarizing effect which is happening particularly on the Right, and it is causing perhaps a moderating force on Democrats.

54% of Democrats want their party to be more moderate; 41%, more liberal
57% of Republicans want their party to be more conservative; 37%, more moderate
Source: Democrats Favor More Moderate Party; GOP, More Conservative

My two cents on the matter, it was clear in my caucuses in Washington State where I became a Congressional Delegate for Bernie in 2016 that all the energy was behind the progressive branch. I think this was clearly a symptom though of the kind of coastal bubbles which exist at the moment, and I have grown more doubtful of both the progressive agenda and their ability to deliver victory on the national scale.

The key here will be to keep the progressive base energy alive, while giving the moderate flyover state Dems and Indies reason to vote.

It's for this reason I'd like to see Biden on the top of the ticket, swearing to only one term, pulling Kamala Harris along on the bottom of the ticket as his successor.

Remember, the first rule of governance is to succeed in obtaining office.

(nice nick, BTW)

 

[TrueScotsman]

Are there any non-progressive/socialist Dems running?

Biden, O'Rourke (look at voting record), Klobuchar, Yang.

 

[Cardinal]

Are there any non-progressive/socialist Dems running?

To my knowledge, there are no Democrats you can vote for who happen to hold exclusively Republican positions. It would appear that voting for a Republican is your sole alternative.

 

[Chomsky]

If, after four years of Trump, a Democratic Primary winner fractures the party, then we as a country no longer deserve to have a democracy.

Hear! Hear! :thumbs:

Will the "fractured" Dems be voting for party? Or voting for democracy and her institutions in our great experiment?

 

[Cardinal]

Hear! Hear! :thumbs:

Will the "fractured" Dems be voting for party? Or voting for democracy and her institutions in our great experiment?

If they're smart, they'll understand that those things are quite literally the same. If they vote for "ideological purity" like they did in 2016 then they'll end up having neither.

But again, it's more useful to learn from the success of 2018 than rehashing 2016 for the eight-trillionth time.

 

[Chomsky]

If winning is so important, then the predominant theme needs to be uniting behind whoever wins the Primary. This will be helped during the runup to the primary by arguing in favor of your preferred Democratic candidate rather than trashing the ones you don't like.

You know, I seem to be seeing this within the candidates, too. Let's hope it holds out!

 

[Cardinal]

You know, I seem to be seeing this within the candidates, too. Let's hope it holds out!

I hope it holds.

 

[pilot16]

If winning is so important, then the predominant theme needs to be uniting behind whoever wins the Primary. This will be helped during the runup to the primary by arguing in favor of your preferred Democratic candidate rather than trashing the ones you don't like.

I agree but I see the democratic party at a crossroads. We are coming near the end of the baby boomer generation and the millennials are exploding onto the scene. So the Ds need to decide, do they want to become a left progressive party and appeal to that new base? Or try to bring over center right and independents and continue to be more of a Third Way party? Its a risk either way really. But one thing we do know is appealing to right leaning voters isnt a guaranteed, as soon as a decent GOP candidate comes around they swing back. Trump will be gone eventually and the Ds need to figure out how to react to a new generation.

 

[Cardinal]

I agree but I see the democratic party at a crossroads. We are coming near the end of the baby boomer generation and the millennials are exploding onto the scene. So the Ds need to decide, do they want to become a left progressive party and appeal to that new base? Or try to bring over center right and independents and continue to be more of a Third Way party? Its a risk either way really. But one thing we do know is appealing to right leaning voters isnt a guaranteed, as soon as a decent GOP candidate comes around they swing back. Trump will be gone eventually and the Ds need to figure out how to react to a new generation.

The people as a whole want sincerity and energy. They want to be shown that they're not taken for granted. Democratic candidates gave them those things and took back the House as a result.

 

[pilot16]

Hear! Hear! :thumbs:

Will the "fractured" Dems be voting for party? Or voting for democracy and her institutions in our great experiment?

The problem is the youth. They are naive (not in a negative way but an ideological one) and its hard for them to see differently due to their inexperience. Many millennials I know were super excited by Bernie in 2016 but stayed home because they saw Hillary as too far in the center. They were ideologically pure so to speak. I also saw it with Ralph Nader. Today I think there still could be some especially the environmentalists who see global warming as their number one concern. Most older people in the middle of the country see the economy and healthcare as their top concerns. Climate change doesnt even hit the top 10. That can effect their voting.

 

[TrueScotsman]

I agree but I see the democratic party at a crossroads. We are coming near the end of the baby boomer generation and the millennials are exploding onto the scene. So the Ds need to decide, do they want to become a left progressive party and appeal to that new base? Or try to bring over center right and independents and continue to be more of a Third Way party? Its a risk either way really. But one thing we do know is appealing to right leaning voters isnt a guaranteed, as soon as a decent GOP candidate comes around they swing back. Trump will be gone eventually and the Ds need to figure out how to react to a new generation.

Exactly, Dems are relying too much on opposing Trump.

 

[Chomsky]

Are there any non-progressive/socialist Dems running?

Amy klobucher immediately comes to mind. Biden is relatively mainstream as Dems go, and quite a bit right of the progressive wing. Rather than a young Beto bringing in new blood, I was hoping a young Connor Lamb might come along.

 

[pilot16]

The people as a whole want sincerity and energy. They want to be shown that they're not taken for granted. Democratic candidates gave them those things and took back the House as a result.

But they took back the House because centrist and right leaning people (mostly female)didnt like who the GOP ran. However if they run newer people next time they might reconsider. They certainly wont vote for someone too far left which is why the progressives only won in predominantly blue areas. Purple areas swung hard for Blue dogs and moderates.

 

[TrueScotsman]

But they took back the House because centrist and right leaning people (mostly female)didnt like who the GOP ran. However if they run newer people next time they might reconsider. They certainly wont vote for someone too far left which is why the progressives only won in predominantly blue areas. Purple areas swung hard for Blue dogs and moderates.

If anything the last election was a repudiation of the progressive wing of the party, which made me increasingly skeptical that Sanders or anyone else could pull it off. Especially if for some reason Trump is not in the equation. Kasich versus Sanders would I think be an easy victory for Kasich.

 

[pilot16]

Exactly, Dems are relying too much on opposing Trump.

Dems will win the popular vote again easily. Maybe even by a bigger margin than the 3 million Hillary did. But electorally? Thats a tough one. They will still need to run a centrist. A far left progressive isnt going to cut it. By 2020 we should know whats inside the Mueller report and that will be a biggie. There still are too many unknowns.