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Trump Tax Cuts Are (Probably) About to Become a Political Disaster

Greenbeard

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The GOP's greatest strategist once again offers up a master class in one-dimensional chess.

Trump Tax Cuts Are (Probably) About to Become a Political Disaster
But GOP operatives insisted that the “blue wave” on the horizon would crest long before November — because the Trump Tax Cuts were about to kick in. Once voters saw fatter paychecks, Republicans would see better poll numbers. And just to be sure that voters noticed all the good Paul Ryan had done for them, the Trump administration reportedly pressured the IRS to err on the side of withholding too little from Americans’ paychecks “so people will see big increases in their take-home pay ahead of this year’s midterm elections.”

This did not work out as planned. Even with (allegedly) light withholding, the the tax bill’s breaks for middle-class people weren’t large enough to attract much notice. Between changes in salaries, health-care premiums, and 401(k) contributions, most Americans didn’t detect much tax relief in their paychecks. The Trump Tax Cuts actually became less popular after they took effect. And, of course, Paul Ryan’s majority drowned in a blue wave.

Now, the bill for the GOP’s (reported) withholding shenanigans is coming due: The average American’s tax refund was 8.4 percent lower in the first week of 2019 than it was one year ago (under the pre-Trump tax code). And while Americans have trouble noticing tax changes when they’re dispersed across 12 to 24 separate paychecks, they do typically pay very close attention to the size of their refunds. About three-quarters of the country typically qualifies for a tax refund most years — and for many of those households, that check from the IRS is the largest lump sum they’ll receive all year.

“Ask people how much they paid in taxes, nobody knows. Ask them how much they got in their refund, people know,” Howard Gleckman , a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center, told the Intercept’s David Dayen this week. “Everyone focuses on size of the refund, and it does affect perception.”

In other words: It looks as though the Republican Party implemented their signature tax bill in a manner that will lead many people who received tax cuts to believe that Donald Trump raised their taxes.
 
*eek*

Not looking forward to this.

The tax form looks so different that I have been going through it slowly so as not to make a mistake. (Also I hate paperwork.) So I'm not yet to the part where I see if it's a gut punch or a relief.
 
The reduced withholding was a bad idea but, on the whole, people are paying less tax. Contrary to the author's opinion that people are idiots, most will figure this out before long.
 
So much #winning for the middle class!

Corporations and the wealthiest Americans are :rofl
 
even though it's probably not a great investment, most people in my socioeconomic class and lower sort of count on the refunds as a windfall to be used to catch up on bills. if the refund drops significantly, people are going to be pissed off, so it might not be great PR for the Trumpist party. his core base will remain loyal, however.
 
even though it's probably not a great investment, most people in my socioeconomic class and lower sort of count on the refunds as a windfall to be used to catch up on bills. if the refund drops significantly, people are going to be pissed off, so it might not be great PR for the Trumpist party. his core base will remain loyal, however.

If my taxes are lower this year than last, which they are, why would I be upset or become 'disloyal?'
 
The reduced withholding was a bad idea but, on the whole, people are paying less tax. Contrary to the author's opinion that people are idiots, most will figure this out before long.

To begin with, the tax cuts were mostly a scam on the middle class to give the rich the big cut on tax breaks. As it is, the increase in costs of products bought (because of the Tariff war) and the increase in inflation, means the middle class got crumbs while the rich got the entire pie.

It is all a scam on the middle class to feed the rich. That is what it is.
 
The reduced withholding was a bad idea but, on the whole, people are paying less tax. Contrary to the author's opinion that people are idiots, most will figure this out before long.

It's been a year. If people didn't feel them in 2018 and their refund this year is smaller or nonexistent, the GOP is going to have to give up on that "the tax plan can't be unpopular forever!" pipe dream.

This ill-advised under-withholding strategy is just the icing on the cake of widespread middle class disappointment in the GOP's tax giveaway to the wealthy. And that cake's been baked for many months.
 
If my taxes are lower this year than last, which they are, why would I be upset or become 'disloyal?'

you are one of his constant defenders, and probably will be no matter what he does. some people aren't. the problem for the Trumpist party is that they need his entire 2016 coalition to stay intact for 2020, or they need the Democrats to make a massive mistake when choosing a candidate. if i were you, i'd hope for the latter.
 
The GOP's greatest strategist once again offers up a master class in one-dimensional chess.

Trump Tax Cuts Are (Probably) About to Become a Political Disaster

From what I read that the tax tables were set up to make it seem like most people got big tax cuts, but once they do their taxes they will find out that not enough tax was taken out of their paychecks and now they will have to pay in rather than get a tax refund. Made it look good a year ago, but now as they say, the chickens are coming home to roost.
 
even though it's probably not a great investment, most people in my socioeconomic class and lower sort of count on the refunds as a windfall to be used to catch up on bills. if the refund drops significantly, people are going to be pissed off, so it might not be great PR for the Trumpist party. his core base will remain loyal, however.

Paying your fair share really sucks when it is you paying it.

What a crock!

I will be more than happy to trade tax returns with you. ( get your ****ing check book ready)
 
From what I read that the tax tables were set up to make it seem like most people got big tax cuts, but once they do their taxes they will find out that not enough tax was taken out of their paychecks and now they will have to pay in rather than get a tax refund. Made it look good a year ago, but now as they say, the chickens are coming home to roost.

That was supposed to make it look good. But it didn't work. People never really warmed to the tax plan, it remained unpopular, and the GOP got demolished in the midterms.

The gambit appears to have failed. This part happening now is just the final insult to the middle class.
 
So much #winning for the middle class!

Corporations and the wealthiest Americans are :rofl

Highest % of personal income tax, BY FAR was to the middle earners...3-4%.

Try REALITY.


If you live in a HIGH TAX STATE, and were used to SADDLING THE REST OF US WITH YOUR TAX BILL....TOUGH ****.

You don't get to foist your state's onerous taxation onto the rest of our backs anymore.


It's called YOUR FAIR SHARE.
 
It's been a year. If people didn't feel them in 2018 and their refund this year is smaller or nonexistent, the GOP is going to have to give up on that "the tax plan can't be unpopular forever!" pipe dream.

This ill-advised under-withholding strategy is just the icing on the cake of widespread middle class disappointment in the GOP's tax giveaway to the wealthy. And that cake's been baked for many months.

The under-withholding thing isn't new. If you every filled out a W-4 and followed the instructions you'd have been GUARANTEED to under-withhold unless you were getting refundable EIC or something. The principles didn't change. The new tax law simply didn't address that issue.
 
The under-withholding thing isn't new. If you every filled out a W-4 and followed the instructions you'd have been GUARANTEED to under-withhold unless you were getting refundable EIC or something. The principles didn't change. The new tax law simply didn't address that issue.

This was the White House instructing the IRS on withholding for purely political purposes.

I realize you're a Trump supporter, but doesn't that rile your feathers, even a little bit?
 
This was the White House instructing the IRS on withholding for purely political purposes.

I realize you're a Trump supporter, but doesn't that rile your feathers, even a little bit?

O...it gave you the SAME OPTION YOU ALWAYS HAD; you determine your withholding...NOT THE IRS.


Never filled out a W2?
 
you are one of his constant defenders, and probably will be no matter what he does. some people aren't. the problem for the Trumpist party is that they need his entire 2016 coalition to stay intact for 2020, or they need the Democrats to make a massive mistake when choosing a candidate. if i were you, i'd hope for the latter.

I am a defender of Trump and I have no problem saying that. Do I approve of all of his antics? Hell no. Do I approve of every policy he has put forward? Yes. Do I think he colluded with Russia? No. Do I think that the liberal obsession with all thing Russia is just a new form of Trutherism? Absolutely.
 
This was the White House instructing the IRS on withholding for purely political purposes.

I realize you're a Trump supporter, but doesn't that rile your feathers, even a little bit?

The White House is not allowed to "instruct" the IRS on tax issues. Taxes are legislative matters and, as such, are directed by the legislative branch and then implemented by the treasury department under the executive branch. The executive branch can certainly express their opinion on how final regs should be implemented but they are not allowed to make up rules not already in place via legislation.
 
The reduced withholding was a bad idea but, on the whole, people are paying less tax. Contrary to the author's opinion that people are idiots, most will figure this out before long.

Maybe you've never been poor. I grew up poor. My parents counted on that tax refund. It was a big deal. People notice when it gets smaller.

And no, people don't understand taxes at all. For example, they don't understand progressive taxation. If you told most people that income above $10 million would be taxed at 70% they would expect someone who makes $10 million to pay $7 million in taxes. Most people don't understand that it's only the money beyond the first $10 million that's taxed at 70%.
 
Paying your fair share really sucks when it is you paying it.

What a crock!

I will be more than happy to trade tax returns with you. ( get your ****ing check book ready)

if your income is too high, it's easy to correct that on your own. if you think that those below you have it so cushy, become one of them.

as for my point about significantly reduced tax refunds being a potential problem for the Trumpist party, that is correct.
 
I am a defender of Trump and I have no problem saying that. Do I approve of all of his antics? Hell no. Do I approve of every policy he has put forward? Yes. Do I think he colluded with Russia? No. Do I think that the liberal obsession with all thing Russia is just a new form of Trutherism? Absolutely.

that's an interesting assertion. how many conspirators / planters of tactical nukes in the twin towers have been indicted and have pled guilty so far?
 
if your income is too high, it's easy to correct that on your own. if you think that those below you have it so cushy, become one of them.

as for my point about significantly reduced tax refunds being a potential problem for the Trumpist party, that is correct.

Why should I have to pay for the babies of the irresponsible people who couldn't afford them in the first place............. that you are whining about?

But but but......................free birth control was all the rage 2-3 years ago!

You folks are not happy regardless.
 
Paying your fair share really sucks when it is you paying it.

What a crock!

I will be more than happy to trade tax returns with you. ( get your ****ing check book ready)

Libbos don't seem to dig paying taxes as much as they claimed. I wonder if they still swear that paying taxes is patriotic.
 
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