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According to Harvard's Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) and pollster Harris' December 2018 poll results, Americans responded as noted to the following questions:
The poll has other interesting questions and responses. Read it for yourself, but please keep in mind this thread's discussion topic is about the noted poll questions, responses to them and the implications of those responses. Responses of any sort should be made based on the assumption that the poll is representationally faithful of the US voting population. (That proviso is simply to avoid foiks having to bog down in methodological and statistics analysis.)1
Notes:
- When you think of Donald Trump do you like or dislike him personally?
- Like him personally 26%
Dislike him personally 58%
Unsure / Don't Know 15%
Xelor Comment:
It's quite surprising to me that the "unsure" rate is as close as it is to the "like him" rate.
- Like him personally 26%
- If Donald Trump runs for reelection in 2020 as the Republican candidate, will you...?
- Definitely vote for Trump 22%
Probably vote for Trump 11%
Probably vote for the Democratic candidate 11%
Definitely vote for the Democratic candidate 33%
I will vote for an Independent or Other Candidate 11%
Not Sure / Other 13%
Xelor Comment:
Trump's starting with a full 10% deficit comparing the "definitely" and "probably" responses for him vs. an generic Democratic candidate.
That's astounding! Folks who don't even know who the Dem candidate will be, yet, extrapolating the poll's results to the population at large, one must infer that 44% of voters are likely, today, to vote for whoever be the Dem. That implies that a Dem whose name such voters have never heard before would likely obtain (not figuring in the poll's margin of error) between 33% and 44% of the vote.
- Definitely vote for Trump 22%
- Now we will show you some names and groups. Please indicate if you have a favorable or unfavorable view of that person or group - or if you've never heard of them.
- Barack Obama 59%
Joe Biden 54%
Bernie Sanders 49%
James Mattis 40%
Mike Pence 39%
Hillary Clinton 38%
Donald Trump 37%
Robert Mueller 36%
Xelor Comment:
I don't know what the margin of error is for the poll, but I know that Barry, Bernie and Joe fall outside of it, Jim may fall outside of it, the other above shown persons are in a "dead heat" with trump as goes favorability. Also, even though Trump isn't the worst on favorability, he is the worst on unfavorability (page 37). Interestingly, Bob has roughly equal rates on favorability and unfavorability, whereas there's a huge chasm between Trump's two rates on those two qualities. The Trump negative rating's prodigious primacy over his positive rating portends that profoundly puissant and persistent be the polity's preponderant pique with and misprision for him.
- Barack Obama 59%
- Do you think Donald Trump should give in and withdraw his demand for 5 billion for the border security?
- Trump should give in 58%
Should not give in 42%
Xelor Comment:
Trump isn't the giving-in sort. I hazard that if he doesn't give in, he'll exacerbate the above noted metrics that augur poorly for his re-election prospects.
Asked whether the Dems should compromise, respondents were split 51% to 49% on whether they should or should not. My personal stance on that is that Dems compromise in any number of ways so long as none of those ways includes appropriating money for a southern border wall/fence.
- Trump should give in 58%
The poll has other interesting questions and responses. Read it for yourself, but please keep in mind this thread's discussion topic is about the noted poll questions, responses to them and the implications of those responses. Responses of any sort should be made based on the assumption that the poll is representationally faithful of the US voting population. (That proviso is simply to avoid foiks having to bog down in methodological and statistics analysis.)1
Notes:
- General info, crosstabs, and other CAPS/Harris polls here.
- I have not calculated the std. dev and MoE for the poll. For my comments above, I've assumed the MoE is somewhere between (inclusive) ±3% to ±5% because that's typical.
- That said, if you want to rail about the poll itself and its intrinsic validity, please have the decency to support your remarks to that effect with specific claims based on the poll's stated methodology and data collected for the noted poll questions.