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Thread: Indications Trump's re-election odds are "tanking"

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    Indications Trump's re-election odds are "tanking"

    According to Harvard's Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) and pollster Harris' December 2018 poll results, Americans responded as noted to the following questions:
    • When you think of Donald Trump do you like or dislike him personally?
      • Like him personally 26%
        Dislike him personally 58%
        Unsure / Don't Know 15%

        Xelor Comment:
        It's quite surprising to me that the "unsure" rate is as close as it is to the "like him" rate.

    • If Donald Trump runs for reelection in 2020 as the Republican candidate, will you...?
      • Definitely vote for Trump 22%
        Probably vote for Trump 11%
        Probably vote for the Democratic candidate 11%
        Definitely vote for the Democratic candidate 33%
        I will vote for an Independent or Other Candidate 11%
        Not Sure / Other 13%

        Xelor Comment:
        Trump's starting with a full 10% deficit comparing the "definitely" and "probably" responses for him vs. an generic Democratic candidate.

        That's astounding! Folks who don't even know who the Dem candidate will be, yet, extrapolating the poll's results to the population at large, one must infer that 44% of voters are likely, today, to vote for whoever be the Dem. That implies that a Dem whose name such voters have never heard before would likely obtain (not figuring in the poll's margin of error) between 33% and 44% of the vote.

    • Now we will show you some names and groups. Please indicate if you have a favorable or unfavorable view of that person or group - or if you've never heard of them.
      • Barack Obama 59%
        Joe Biden 54%
        Bernie Sanders 49%
        James Mattis 40%
        Mike Pence 39%
        Hillary Clinton 38%
        Donald Trump 37%
        Robert Mueller 36%

        Xelor Comment:
        I don't know what the margin of error is for the poll, but I know that Barry, Bernie and Joe fall outside of it, Jim may fall outside of it, the other above shown persons are in a "dead heat" with trump as goes favorability. Also, even though Trump isn't the worst on favorability, he is the worst on unfavorability (page 37). Interestingly, Bob has roughly equal rates on favorability and unfavorability, whereas there's a huge chasm between Trump's two rates on those two qualities. The Trump negative rating's prodigious primacy over his positive rating portends that profoundly puissant and persistent be the polity's preponderant pique with and misprision for him.

    • Do you think Donald Trump should give in and withdraw his demand for 5 billion for the border security?
      • Trump should give in 58%
        Should not give in 42%

        Xelor Comment:
        Trump isn't the giving-in sort. I hazard that if he doesn't give in, he'll exacerbate the above noted metrics that augur poorly for his re-election prospects.

        Asked whether the Dems should compromise, respondents were split 51% to 49% on whether they should or should not. My personal stance on that is that Dems compromise in any number of ways so long as none of those ways includes appropriating money for a southern border wall/fence.


    The poll has other interesting questions and responses. Read it for yourself, but please keep in mind this thread's discussion topic is about the noted poll questions, responses to them and the implications of those responses. Responses of any sort should be made based on the assumption that the poll is representationally faithful of the US voting population. (That proviso is simply to avoid foiks having to bog down in methodological and statistics analysis.)1



    Notes:
    • General info, crosstabs, and other CAPS/Harris polls here.
    • I have not calculated the std. dev and MoE for the poll. For my comments above, I've assumed the MoE is somewhere between (inclusive) ±3% to ±5% because that's typical.
    1. That said, if you want to rail about the poll itself and its intrinsic validity, please have the decency to support your remarks to that effect with specific claims based on the poll's stated methodology and data collected for the noted poll questions.

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    Re: Indications Trump's re-election odds are "tanking"

    My game console, which I probably shouldn't be using to post on this board, does not like the link. You wouldn't by chance know the average ages of people sampled, would you? Or whether or not this poll neglected cell-phones?

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    Re: Indications Trump's re-election odds are "tanking"

    One must remember that Trump's odds of winning in 2016 were said to be slim to none based on polls. Based on the any demorat will (surely?) win in 2020 polling data - why not run Hillary again?
    “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists to adapt the world to himself.
    Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” ― George Bernard Shaw, Man and Superman

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    Re: Indications Trump's re-election odds are "tanking"

    Trump is circling a drain of his own making. I would ask us to remember when the TrumpWorld of "governance" started lurching to a halt. It started lurching to a halt the very second we started hearing that Trump felt that he had the wherewithal to lose the guardrails. From that very second forward it all started falling apart. He now owns another shutdown, third in one year. He has a completely frozen administration seeded with Actings and Idiots. You can decide which is worse.

    Everybody is leaving and smacking Donald on the way out the door. Even Kelly is joining in the Trump abuse.

    Internationally, everybody other than the autocrats Trump panders to have thrown in the towel on Donald and the Country is on its way to throwing in the towel on him. His loyal base won't get him more than a landslide against in the next election.

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    Re: Indications Trump's re-election odds are "tanking"

    Quote Originally Posted by ttwtt78640 View Post
    One must remember that Trump's odds of winning in 2016 were said to be slim to none based on polls. Based on the any demorat will (surely?) win in 2020 polling data - why not run Hillary again?
    Hillary is no national candidate for the Executive, proven now in two separate Presidential elections.

    Trump's greatest deficit in a 2020 campaign is Trump himself. It has taken him all of two years to hit most of the country with the big pie in the face. Trump did not have to run against the reality of Trump in 2016. I don't see a way for him to overcome that in 2020.

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    Re: Indications Trump's re-election odds are "tanking"

    Quote Originally Posted by Xelor View Post
    According to Harvard's Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) and pollster Harris' December 2018 poll results, Americans responded as noted to the following questions:
    • When you think of Donald Trump do you like or dislike him personally?
      • Like him personally 26%
        Dislike him personally 58%
        Unsure / Don't Know 15%

        Xelor Comment:
        It's quite surprising to me that the "unsure" rate is as close as it is to the "like him" rate.

    • If Donald Trump runs for reelection in 2020 as the Republican candidate, will you...?
      • Definitely vote for Trump 22%
        Probably vote for Trump 11%
        Probably vote for the Democratic candidate 11%
        Definitely vote for the Democratic candidate 33%
        I will vote for an Independent or Other Candidate 11%
        Not Sure / Other 13%

        Xelor Comment:
        Trump's starting with a full 10% deficit comparing the "definitely" and "probably" responses for him vs. an generic Democratic candidate.

        That's astounding! Folks who don't even know who the Dem candidate will be, yet, extrapolating the poll's results to the population at large, one must infer that 44% of voters are likely, today, to vote for whoever be the Dem. That implies that a Dem whose name such voters have never heard before would likely obtain (not figuring in the poll's margin of error) between 33% and 44% of the vote.

    • Now we will show you some names and groups. Please indicate if you have a favorable or unfavorable view of that person or group - or if you've never heard of them.
      • Barack Obama 59%
        Joe Biden 54%
        Bernie Sanders 49%
        James Mattis 40%
        Mike Pence 39%
        Hillary Clinton 38%
        Donald Trump 37%
        Robert Mueller 36%

        Xelor Comment:
        I don't know what the margin of error is for the poll, but I know that Barry, Bernie and Joe fall outside of it, Jim may fall outside of it, the other above shown persons are in a "dead heat" with trump as goes favorability. Also, even though Trump isn't the worst on favorability, he is the worst on unfavorability (page 37). Interestingly, Bob has roughly equal rates on favorability and unfavorability, whereas there's a huge chasm between Trump's two rates on those two qualities. The Trump negative rating's prodigious primacy over his positive rating portends that profoundly puissant and persistent be the polity's preponderant pique with and misprision for him.

    • Do you think Donald Trump should give in and withdraw his demand for 5 billion for the border security?
      • Trump should give in 58%
        Should not give in 42%

        Xelor Comment:
        Trump isn't the giving-in sort. I hazard that if he doesn't give in, he'll exacerbate the above noted metrics that augur poorly for his re-election prospects.

        Asked whether the Dems should compromise, respondents were split 51% to 49% on whether they should or should not. My personal stance on that is that Dems compromise in any number of ways so long as none of those ways includes appropriating money for a southern border wall/fence.


    The poll has other interesting questions and responses. Read it for yourself, but please keep in mind this thread's discussion topic is about the noted poll questions, responses to them and the implications of those responses. Responses of any sort should be made based on the assumption that the poll is representationally faithful of the US voting population. (That proviso is simply to avoid foiks having to bog down in methodological and statistics analysis.)1



    Notes:
    • General info, crosstabs, and other CAPS/Harris polls here.
    • I have not calculated the std. dev and MoE for the poll. For my comments above, I've assumed the MoE is somewhere between (inclusive) ±3% to ±5% because that's typical.
    1. That said, if you want to rail about the poll itself and its intrinsic validity, please have the decency to support your remarks to that effect with specific claims based on the poll's stated methodology and data collected for the noted poll questions.
    It’s all according to who they ask those questions, some collage full of liberals?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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    Re: Indications Trump's re-election odds are "tanking"

    Quote Originally Posted by DH Kirkwood View Post
    My game console, which I probably shouldn't be using to post on this board, does not like the link. You wouldn't by chance know the average ages of people sampled, would you? Or whether or not this poll neglected cell-phones?
    FWIW, the OP's first link goes directly to a PDF document depicting the topline results from the poll. (Crosstab information is a separate link.) Attached below is the age data you requested. The first page of the topline report indicates the following as goes the data collection approach:
    This survey was conducted online within the United States from December 24-25, 2018 among 1,473 registered voters by The Harris Poll.

    Based on that, I'd say the nobody responded as a result of having been called and asked the poll questions.
    Attached Images Attached Images

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    Re: Indications Trump's re-election odds are "tanking"

    Quote Originally Posted by MrShangles View Post
    It’s all according to who they ask those questions, some collage full of liberals?
    You don't need to ask me. That's why I provided you, in my OP, with a link to the poll topline and the crosstab. You can do your own analysis of the data. The CAPS has fully exposed its data.

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    Re: Indications Trump's re-election odds are "tanking"

    Quote Originally Posted by ttwtt78640 View Post
    One must remember that Trump's odds of winning in 2016 were said to be slim to none based on polls. Based on the any demorat will (surely?) win in 2020 polling data - why not run Hillary again?
    Red:
    What? From whence did you get "the any demorat [sic] will (surely?) win in 2020 polling data" proposition/conclusion?

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    Re: Indications Trump's re-election odds are "tanking"

    Quote Originally Posted by Xelor View Post
    FWIW, the OP's first link goes directly to a PDF document depicting the topline results from the poll. (Crosstab information is a separate link.) Attached below is the age data you requested. The first page of the topline report indicates the following as goes the data collection approach:
    This survey was conducted online within the United States from December 24-25, 2018 among 1,473 registered voters by The Harris Poll.

    Based on that, I'd say the nobody responded as a result of having been called and asked the poll questions.
    Thanks for posting this. Saved me the time to get it.

    Here is the latest Gallup Party Affiliation numbers:

    Dem - 32%
    Rep - 26%
    Ind - 39%

    So...that poll oversampled Reps and Dems and grossly undersampled Ind.

    Add to that the inherent deficiencies of an online poll and...

    POLL REJECTED!!
    TANSTAAFL

    Liberal turned conservative David Mamet famously said: In order to continue advancing their illogical arguments modern liberals have to pretend not to know things…

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