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Trade War beginning to be felt in the U.S.

Mycroft said:
Nothing you say applies to the quote from Mr. Johnson.

Moving on...
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No one cares what your opinion is about the relevancy of Mr. Johnson's business, but the fact is, he's in the business of propping up shopping malls.
After you purchase your new glasses, you can read about him on his own page.
 
Mycroft said:
You have a real problem getting your comments to apply to the posts you are responding to, don't you?

This is your second one.
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Obvious troll comment is obvious. Scrolling past future troll comments.
 
Luckyone said:
The Trade War, which is 100% Trump's doing, is beginning to be felt and repercussions are to follow.

World Economy Is Set to Feel the Delayed Trade War Pain in 2019
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I was chatting this morning with my housekeeper. She'd just returned from grocery shopping and she noted price increases for of several inelastically demanded good she routinely buys -- bread, the cats' food and water -- and some elastically demanded goods, dried pasta/noodles being the one I recall as I write this.

Such price increases are precisely what's supposed to happen given the tariffs....
International trade is blamed for hurting U.S. manufacturing jobs, but it provides American consumers with a host of lower-cost goods that act as a relief valve for inflation. Median household income has outpaced inflation by about 20% but hasn't kept pace with the soaring costs of some major living expenses.

Here are the cost increases of major household expenses (most not affected by trade)...
  • +259% College tuition
  • +161% Childcare
  • +142% Cost of medical care
  • +96% Paying a mortgage
  • +78% Household energy costs
  • +43% Dry Cleaning
...And here's inflation on goods heavily influenced by trade:
  • +72% Cost of eating food at home
  • +11% New cars & trucks*
  • -5% Dresses
  • -10% Furniture & Bedding
  • -14% Women's coats
  • -22% Sweaters
  • -22% Household appliances*
  • -25% Men's suits
  • -57% Computers*
  • -97% Televisions*
* Price changes reflect improved quality and technology.​
(Source)
 
Checkerboard Strangler said:
They just purchased millions of tons of American soybeans, it was a thread right here on DP, get new reading glasses.
But before you rush out to Lenscrafters, to buy a new pair of glasses (most likely made in China or Italy) please know that this may be the last US soybean purchase they make for a while.
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Yeah, it was more necessity than anything. In the long term, unless things change, China wants to stop buying US soybeans altogether.
 
Gaugingcatenate said:
Is that what your Google aggregator tells you, we were doing pretty well for nine years?
:lamo:lamo:lamo:lamo:lamo
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The economy and the market were doing great until the democrats won the house. Here we go again.
 
PIPEWRENCH said:
The economy and the market were doing great until the democrats won the house. Here we go again.
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Ever heard of correlation vs causation? Didn't think so. And if you think the market downturn is because the republicans lost the house, I have a bridge you will certainly be interested in.
 
aks said:
Ever heard of correlation vs causation? Didn't think so. And if you think the market downturn is because the republicans lost the house, I have a bridge you will certainly be interested in.
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The causation is clearly the democrats winning the house. The correlation is the fact of the timing. It is just that simple.:lamo:lamo:lamo
 
The image of shooting oneself in the foot couldn't be more relevant...
 
Luckyone said:
Her is more tangible proof that Trump's trade war has been costing us:

The S&P 500 Lost 11% of Value From Trump’s Trade War, Research Says
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As some of you know, I am a chart analyst in the Stock Market and I have a charting service in which I offer stock mentions (what stock to buy or sell with desired entry points, stop loss points, and objective based on chart support and resistance levels). I have been offering this service now for 12 years and my track record is pretty dam good with a average return on investment of about 67% per year. I have had 9 profitable years and only 2 losing years and so far this year, I am up strongly.

I have a message board where I update the indexes and all held stocks every day and when needed intraday.

I just wrote this comment at 2:30 pm today (2/21):

The indexes have now all gone below yesterday's lows and all given a sell signal on the 10-minute chart. This is the first sign that the momentum has stopped, given that it is the first day in the last 4 trading days that the indexes have gone below the previous days low and in the NAZ, it is the first time that has happened in the last 8 days. In addition and also in the NAZ a red close today would be the first in 9 days.

With this coming at important and pivotal levels it is indicative that the bulls have lost their edge.

The NAZ has also broken the 200 10-minite MA, currently at 7460, amd there is intraday resistance at 7463, meaning that if the bulls cannot rally above the line in the next hour or two,, further and likely stronger selling is likely to be seen.

The next level to watch is 2746 in the SPX. That is where the 200-day MA is currently at and if the index closes below that level, a failure signal will be given. A red close in the NAZ today (likely) will mean that index has tested the MA line successfully and that will also bring in new selling interest.

I have not yet seen any of the buying interest seen last night and having gone below yesterday's lows, it is highly unlikely it will be seen. Nonetheless if a positive reversal day occurs (unlikely), it would give the bulls a strong reason to smile.

What I am saying is the it seems that the market is ready to go south and it could be the beginning of a strong drop of anywhere from a minimum of 2000 points in the DOW to a maximum of 6000 points.
 
Luckyone said:
As some of you know, I am a chart analyst in the Stock Market and I have a charting service in which I offer stock mentions (what stock to buy or sell with desired entry points, stop loss points, and objective based on chart support and resistance levels). I have been offering this service now for 12 years and my track record is pretty dam good with a average return on investment of about 67% per year. I have had 9 profitable years and only 2 losing years and so far this year, I am up strongly.

I have a message board where I update the indexes and all held stocks every day and when needed intraday.

I just wrote this comment at 2:30 pm today (2/21):

The indexes have now all gone below yesterday's lows and all given a sell signal on the 10-minute chart. This is the first sign that the momentum has stopped, given that it is the first day in the last 4 trading days that the indexes have gone below the previous days low and in the NAZ, it is the first time that has happened in the last 8 days. In addition and also in the NAZ a red close today would be the first in 9 days.

With this coming at important and pivotal levels it is indicative that the bulls have lost their edge.

The NAZ has also broken the 200 10-minite MA, currently at 7460, amd there is intraday resistance at 7463, meaning that if the bulls cannot rally above the line in the next hour or two,, further and likely stronger selling is likely to be seen.

The next level to watch is 2746 in the SPX. That is where the 200-day MA is currently at and if the index closes below that level, a failure signal will be given. A red close in the NAZ today (likely) will mean that index has tested the MA line successfully and that will also bring in new selling interest.

I have not yet seen any of the buying interest seen last night and having gone below yesterday's lows, it is highly unlikely it will be seen. Nonetheless if a positive reversal day occurs (unlikely), it would give the bulls a strong reason to smile.

What I am saying is the it seems that the market is ready to go south and it could be the beginning of a strong drop of anywhere from a minimum of 2000 points in the DOW to a maximum of 6000 points.
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This was the additional message I gave my subscribers just 30 minutes ago:

I took another look at all the charts of the indexes and held stocks and almost across the board it is a very dangerous situation for the bulls. It is like being at the peak of a mountain and leaning toward falling.

Understand that the indexes have gone straight up with no backing and filling occurring, meaning that it the first domino falls there are a lot of domino's that will likely fall as well as there are no levels nearby where they could fall to and recover.

It is not a healthy chart situation and more importantly it is not supported by any change of fundamentals from where they were in December. This rally has been more about being overdone to the downside in December and anticipation of things getting better than than it has been about any positive change of fundamentals. In addition, the rally in the oil market is more of a negative than a positive as it is more likely to cause some inflation than not.

It is a very dangerous situation as the risk/reward situation for the bulls has to be about 1-4 with the upside in the DOW being the all-time high at 26951 and the downside to support being the low made in December at 21712. As such, a purchaser of the DOW is looking to make about 1000 point but risking about 4000 points. Such risk/reward ratios benefit the bears greatly.

As I have been writing this, the DOW has made a new low on the day and the SPX is down to the low and at the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 2770. The NAZ is back below the MA line and the DOW is getting close as the line is presently at 25870.

I have a feeling that the market is staring to pivot downward.
 
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