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Why there will be no Blue wave!

Chomsky said:
Wow. I'm a bit flummoxed here, because I very much respect your opinion. Thanks for raining on the parade. I'm still thinking a D win by just a few extra seats. Pretty much what I always believed.

Interesting statement here, too. Actually I never gave it any thought.

Thanks much for this post and the links! I keep forgetting about the Green Papers. Very old school!
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As you can tell, the Last thing I look at is generic ballot, especially with legalized gerrymandering and legalized voter suppression.
As someone who voted against Nixon in 1972, this is still the gop of increase their negatives and decrease their participation.

I continue to look at under-performing Dem CDs since 2010, their albatross for state-wide races for the Senate, Governor, and Potus.
From those green papers, you can also see which CDs are uncontested; then cross-reference with the potus vote for that CD.
I don't see many GOP CDs uncontested by Dems this year, which should elevate GOP turnout state-wide.
I do see GOPs not contesting some Dem CDs again this term, which does hold down overall Dem CD turn-out, hurting state-wide turnout.
I see this in IL-03 and IL-04 every election.

Pennsylvania is the wild-card for the House. If Dems only clear 3 seats in PA, it will be a short night.
New Jersey is another so-called big pick-up state.

Each new day of lying, despicable scare tactics from the gop is met with the silence of the Dem lambs.
This is 2016 all over again, with a potential run of the Senate table.
 
independentusa said:
In fact the GOP will keep control of both the Senate and the House. The Dems think that they can rely on the educated women in the suburbs,who usually vote for the GOP, will switch and vote for the GOP because of the GOP's seemingly disregard of women and their rights. It won't happen. In the end these women will vote for the GOP and thus for Donald Trump, even if they say it s not a vote for him. It might be because their husband or their friends push them to do so or just because they being Gopers, always vote for the GOP candidate. Whatever reason they tell themselves, they will go into that booth and pull the lever fro the party they always vote for and the Blue wave will never exist. It is as simple as that. I have often written on this board before that GOPers always vote for the GOP candidate, no matter how bad the candidate is and how good the Dem candidate turns out to be.
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You keep stating that, it energizes Dems to go to the polls, thanks!!
 
Linc said:
As you can tell, the Last thing I look at is generic ballot, especially with legalized gerrymandering and legalized voter suppression.
As someone who voted against Nixon in 1972, this is still the gop of increase their negatives and decrease their participation.

I continue to look at under-performing Dem CDs since 2010, their albatross for state-wide races for the Senate, Governor, and Potus.
From those green papers, you can also see which CDs are uncontested; then cross-reference with the potus vote for that CD.
I don't see many GOP CDs uncontested by Dems this year, which should elevate GOP turnout state-wide.
I do see GOPs not contesting some Dem CDs again this term, which does hold down overall Dem CD turn-out, hurting state-wide turnout.
I see this in IL-03 and IL-04 every election.

Pennsylvania is the wild-card for the House. If Dems only clear 3 seats in PA, it will be a short night.
New Jersey is another so-called big pick-up state.

Each new day of lying, despicable scare tactics from the gop is met with the silence of the Dem lambs.
This is 2016 all over again, with a potential run of the Senate table.
Click to expand...

"HIT EM HARDER!!!" is what got the BUS DRIVERS TO UTOPIA in this jam to begin with.

Maybe they should try something else.
 
Linc said:
As you can tell, the Last thing I look at is generic ballot, especially with legalized gerrymandering and legalized voter suppression.
As someone who voted against Nixon in 1972, this is still the gop of increase their negatives and decrease their participation.

I continue to look at under-performing Dem CDs since 2010, their albatross for state-wide races for the Senate, Governor, and Potus.
From those green papers, you can also see which CDs are uncontested; then cross-reference with the potus vote for that CD.
I don't see many GOP CDs uncontested by Dems this year, which should elevate GOP turnout state-wide.
I do see GOPs not contesting some Dem CDs again this term, which does hold down overall Dem CD turn-out, hurting state-wide turnout.
I see this in IL-03 and IL-04 every election.

Pennsylvania is the wild-card for the House. If Dems only clear 3 seats in PA, it will be a short night.
New Jersey is another so-called big pick-up state.

Each new day of lying, despicable scare tactics from the gop is met with the silence of the Dem lambs.
This is 2016 all over again, with a potential run of the Senate table.
Click to expand...
You're a great analyst, Linc. I just wish you were coming to a different conclusion.

I very much agree that Pennsy will be an excellent early House bellwether. As you said, if Dems only pull 3 (or less), trouble's afoot. If they grab 5 or more, it will be a helluva' an interesting night. By 8:00P CST, we'll have a rough idea of where the night's going.

The Senate looks like hell. I always predicted the GOP would pick-up 1 or 2. Now it's looking even worse! :(
 
Chomsky said:
You're a great analyst, Linc. I just wish you were coming to a different conclusion.

I very much agree that Pennsy will be an excellent early House bellwether. As you said, if Dems only pull 3 (or less), trouble's afoot. If they grab 5 or more, it will be a helluva' an interesting night. By 8:00P CST, we'll have a rough idea of where the night's going.

The Senate looks like hell. I always predicted the GOP would pick-up 1 or 2. Now it's looking even worse! :(
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The D's are well trained in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Let's watch and see if they did it again.

I have my pizza tonight!

Meatball and onion.

Anchovies too.

:2wave:
 
Hawkeye10 said:
The D's are well trained in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Let's watch and see if they did it again.

I have my pizza tonight!

Meatball and onion.

Anchovies too.

:2wave:
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Good man. I eat anchovy pizza almost every week. Seriously. I might skip every third weak. Sausage, Onions, Anchovy. The secret is, it's got to be easy cheese. Too much cheese kills an anchovy pizza. But they love onions ...
 
Chomsky said:
Good man. I eat anchovy pizza almost every week. Seriously. I might skip every third weak. Sausage, Onions, Anchovy. The secret is, it's got to be easy cheese. Too much cheese kills an anchovy pizza.
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In Rockford that was the test back in the day...if they did not offer anchovies they were not a serous joint.

That and cheap plastic pitchers of good beer.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
In Rockford that was the test back in the day...if they did not offer anchovies they were not a serous joint.

That and cheap plastic pitchers of good beer.
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Agreed! There was a time where anchovy pizzas were a very popular item, especially in Italian communities.

But you forgot about those bottles of cheap Chianti in straw baskets, that were once the rage? The ones they would stick a candle in, and let the wax coat the bottle?

;)
 
Chomsky said:
You're a great analyst, Linc. I just wish you were coming to a different conclusion.

I very much agree that Pennsy will be an excellent early House bellwether. As you said, if Dems only pull 3 (or less), trouble's afoot. If they grab 5 or more, it will be a helluva' an interesting night. By 8:00P CST, we'll have a rough idea of where the night's going.

The Senate looks like hell. I always predicted the GOP would pick-up 1 or 2. Now it's looking even worse! :(
Click to expand...

As for my IL, we'll get a new governor.
As for the 4 GOP House seats 'at risk' here, I only see one in the suburbs at best.
The other one in the burbs, plus the two downstate, are wishful thinking for Dems.

Have you seen this word 'triage' being used by Dems? :lamo
GOPs supposedly pulled out of KS-03 and IA-01 but are back in with huge 'dark-money' buys.
Dems have pulled out of NE-02 and MN-08, and are at risk in NV-03 and NV-04.

Since every word out of his mouth is a LIE, as TrusTed told us, you have to wonder where the DEM daily truth squad is.
As with the 2014 election, these lies are baked in to those who will vote R.

NY is more wishful thinking for DEMs thinking they can take out any of these 9 of 27 CDs.
Ohio, with a 12-4 R advantage, maybe one at best.
If you apportion the total CD vote in Ohio, R's would be up 9-7, not 12-4.
Same with FL, TX, PA, GA, etc. As I said, 'baked in'.

And, you don't see Dems working overlapping markets in neighboring states.
 
Chomsky said:
Agreed! But you forgot about those bottles of cheap Chianti in straw baskets, that were once the rage? The ones they would stick a candle in, and let the wax coat the bottle?

;)
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No no no man, that was never a dependable test.

I am so disappointed in you.

:monkeyarm











:lol:
 
eohrnberger said:
This "caravan" heading to our borders is quite worrisome. Mexico is doing something, but 500 policemen is no match for what appears to be between 7,000 and 14,000 people. In order to prevent this "caravan" from touching US soil and then have to be processed by the ridiculous rules of catch and release, the US may have to request access to Mexico for the US military to stop them, or the Mexican military to stop them, and then, in the middle of a confrontation, just one shot fired, and it'd be all over, politically.

Yes, quite worrisome. I'm not seeing anything good come of this. Still wondering why so many from Honduras all decided at the same time to start walking North, just in time to arrive just before the midterm elections. As if it was planned, coordinated an d/ or instigated by some external third party, or something. . . . . Hmmm. :confused:
Click to expand...

The majority of the mass's final destination is California not Texas and Arizona. And all those tight races in CA just got a shot in the arm because Republicans/Independents in that state don't want to see this massive bunch entering their state.
 
Linc said:
As for my IL, we'll get a new governor.
As for the 4 GOP House seats 'at risk' here, I only see one in the suburbs at best.
The other one in the burbs, plus the two downstate, are wishful thinking for Dems.

Have you seen this word 'triage' being used by Dems? :lamo
GOPs supposedly pulled out of KS-03 and IA-01 but are back in with huge 'dark-money' buys.
Dems have pulled out of NE-02 and MN-08, and are at risk in NV-03 and NV-04.

Since every word out of his mouth is a LIE, as TrusTed told us, you have to wonder where the DEM daily truth squad is.
As with the 2014 election, these lies are baked in to those who will vote R.

NY is more wishful thinking for DEMs thinking they can take out any of these 9 of 27 CDs.
Ohio, with a 12-4 R advantage, maybe one at best.
If you apportion the total CD vote in Ohio, R's would be up 9-7, not 12-4.
Same with FL, TX, PA, GA, etc. As I said, 'baked in'.

And, you don't see Dems working overlapping markets in neighboring states.
Click to expand...
Yep, much of that I bolded due to gerrymandering.

But if the Dems only grab 1 in OH, that will be disappointing.
 
vesper said:
The majority of the mass's final destination is California not Texas and Arizona. And all those tight races in CA just got a shot in the arm because Republicans/Independents in that state don't want to see this massive bunch entering their state.
Click to expand...

Dunno for sure. Could be.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
No no no man, that was never a dependable test.

I am so disappointed in you.

:monkeyarm











:lol:
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It was a better test than Old Style in a plastic pitcher! But I will agree with the anchovy test. ;)

Also, the garlic content in the garlic bread was another indicator. One of my current complaints is we're removing the garlic content from Italian-American cooking, like we removed salt from everything else!

But if we remove pizza from the equation, the indicator for an Italian restaurant was the strength of their veal dishes. That's really old school!
 
Chomsky said:
It was a better test than Old Style in a plastic pitcher! But I will agree with the anchovy test. ;)

Also, the garlic content in the garlic bread was another indicator. One of my current complaints is we're removing the garlic content from Italian-American cooking, like we removed salt from everything else!

But if we remove pizza from the equation, the indicator for an Italian restaurant was the strength of their veal dishes. That's really old school!
Click to expand...

So whaddya think....do the D's get the House?

I dont feel like I know enough about what is going on to predict.....it sure is not 6/7 like Nate Silver has it though...
 
Chomsky said:
Yep, much of that I bolded due to gerrymandering.

But if the Dems only grab 1 in OH, that will be disappointing.
Click to expand...

What we’re not hearing much of anything about is the 99 state legislative bodies, though not all of those members are up this year. 36 governors this year. Together, these are the ones to rewrite 43 CD maps and 99 state maps in 2021.

I’ll try to check ballotpedia before I see you tomorrow night; World Series night.

I keep hearing about D’s gaining let’s say 23 seats, for a 218 to 217 edge. If R’s flip 8 seats, I’d be harder pressed to tell you which 31 seats D’s will flip than the 8 seats R’s will flip.

To be honest, I’d rather two more years of the last two than losing the House in 2020, in which 2020 ‘should’ be a good Dem Senate year also. We still haven’t seen the final Mueller report either.

As for 2020, I support Gov. Bullock of Montana for POTUS.
 
MovingPictures said:
It feels more like 2012 than 2016, IMHO.

Democrats are taking this election seriously, understanding the consequences of the GOP retaining complete control of the Congress.
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I somewhat agree with you. I found it dumbfounding how the Democrats ignored massive seat losses after 2008. They had a smug arrogance to them feeling they were right and the country agreed, despite loss after loss in each election.

I think trump winning woke them up and they are taking this election serious. The buffer is that republicans appear to be taking the election seriously too. There is so much anger coming out of the left and being at the right that people are concerned what the left would do if they got the majority.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I467 using Tapatalk
 
Hawkeye10 said:
So whaddya think....do the D's get the House?

I dont feel like I know enough about what is going on to predict.....it sure is not 6/7 like Nate Silver has it though...
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You're probably right with Silver, though I do hate to go against him.

I'm going to say D's probably get the House, but not by much and no wave.

Watch Pennsy for the first returns, early in the night. Three or less flips there, and it's probably over for the Dems. Four, and it will be a long and interesting night. Five or more, and they're looking great!

You heard it hear first! (in conjunction with Linc)
 
Chomsky said:
You're probably right with Silver, though I do hate to go against him.

I'm going to say D's probably get the House, but not by much and no wave.

Watch Pennsy for the first returns, early in the night. Three or less flips there, and it's probably over for the Dems. Four, and it will be a long and interesting night. Five or more, and they're looking good!

You heard it hear first!

(in conjunction with Linc)
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If the D's do not take the HOUSE all of the top national D leadership needs to go overboard, for gross incompetence, starting with Hillary....AGREED?
 
Hawkeye10 said:
If the D's do not take the HOUSE all of the top national D leadership needs to go overboard, for gross incompetence, starting with Hillary....AGREED?
Click to expand...
100%

But, I'd like to ditch most of them now. The Dems need their revolution too, you know.
 
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