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It's been a bad two weeks for Dems: Generic ballot now nearly even

KLATTU

KLATTU

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With less than three weeks to Election Day, Democrats and Republicans remain in a near tie on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-four percent (44%) would opt for the Republican. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

Generic Congressional Ballot - Rasmussen Reports®

YOWSA! if the Democrats don't take the house the meltdown will be epic.

:eek:
 
Rasmussen :lol:
 
KLATTU said:
With less than three weeks to Election Day, Democrats and Republicans remain in a near tie on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-four percent (44%) would opt for the Republican. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

Generic Congressional Ballot - Rasmussen Reports®

YOWSA! if the Democrats don't take the house the meltdown will be epic.

:eek:
Click to expand...

Ah, desperation! The reality once you move past a single poll from one company looks differently. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/?ex_cid=irpromo

The most recent polls:

YouGov: Democrats +5 %
IPSOS: Democrats +10 %
Morning Consult: Democrats +7 %
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research: Democrats +1 %

That averages out to about democrats +8 %. It helps to not look only at polls that tell you what you want to hear.
 
https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/410784-dems-hold-6-point-lead-on-generic-ballot

Democrats hold a 6-point lead over Republicans on the generic ballot less than one month before November's midterm races, according to a new American Barometer survey.

The poll, conducted by Hill.TV and the HarrisX polling company, found that 43 percent of respondents said they would vote for a Democratic candidate, while 37 percent said they would back a Republican candidate.
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https://www.politicususa.com/2018/1...e-an-11-point-lead-in-the-generic-ballot.html

Recently Republicans and the mainstream media have been promoting the narrative that Republicans are tightening the race for control of the U.S. House of Representatives. But a new Washington Post/ABC News poll contradicts this narrative, showing Democrats with a very strong 11 percentage point lead in the generic congressional ballot. And independent women voters favor Democrats by an astounding 33 percentage points.
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https://hotair.com/archives/2018/10/15/abc-generic-ballot-battleground-districts-r1/

It could be even worse than that from the Democratic perspective. The WaPo/ABC generic ballot result is on the outer edge of the aggregation at RCP, where Democrats have a 7.3-point lead. It’s probably too much to call it an outlier, as Reuters and CNN both give Democrats similar leads, but most other recent polls put the difference in single digits. Rasmussen calls it a solid tie and IBD/TIPP has it at D+2, but most of the polls are in the D+6 -to- D+8 range.
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trixare4kids said:
The 2016 election of DJT v. HRC:


Rasmussen Reports Calls It Right - Rasmussen Reports®

:mrgreen: He who laughs last, laughs best.
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Also: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-rasmussen-reports-biased/

If you’re running a news organization and you tend to cite Rasmussen’s polls disproportionately, it probably means that you are biased — it does not necessarily mean that Rasmussen is biased.
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There's also this:

But there are other respects in which I’m much less sympathetic to Rasmussen’s case. In particular, this has to do with their choices of question wording and subject matter. The Politico question, for instance, points toward an August question in which Rasmussen asked “It’s always better to cut taxes than to increase government spending because taxpayers, not bureaucrats, are the best judges of how to spend their money.” That is not a question designed to elicit the most accurate reflection of public opinion.
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The one thing that Rasmussen poll numbers do is establish themselves as best-case scenarios for Republicans.
 
KLATTU said:
With less than three weeks to Election Day, Democrats and Republicans remain in a near tie on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-four percent (44%) would opt for the Republican. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

Generic Congressional Ballot - Rasmussen ReportsÂ[emoji2400]

YOWSA! if the Democrats don't take the house the meltdown will be epic.

:eek:
Click to expand...
You realize this literally happens almost every election cycle. For months leading up to an election we are bombarded with polls telling us how the Democrats are the favorites and then in the last 2 weeks the polls magically tighten up and the race becomes competitive.

I don't think the Democrats did themselves any favors in the month of October but I also don't think there was a big momentum swing either. This midterm was always going to be a close contest. The leftwing controlled media just didn't want you to know it. The irony is that it is a former of voter supression, which they claim they are so opposed to.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I467 using Tapatalk
 
KLATTU said:
YOWSA! if the Democrats don't take the house the meltdown will be epic.

:eek:
Click to expand...

Leftists have been uncivil for years, doing violence on those who disagree with them. Now, having said that, what's next? I mean it is possible, very possible, the kooker left will lose their collective butts this November. If that happens, what level of violence will the scumbags go?

Personally I'll LMAO if the low-life leftists fail to take the House. America chased out 1200+ leftists from office since 2010, so it can happen. Let's pray it does. :)
 
DamnYankee said:
Leftists have been uncivil for years, doing violence on those who disagree with them. Now, having said that, what's next? I mean it is possible, very possible, the kooker left will lose their collective butts this November. If that happens, what level of violence will the scumbags go?

Personally I'll LMAO if the low-life leftists fail to take the House. America chased out 1200+ leftists from office since 2010, so it can happen. Let's pray it does. :)
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The only real violence of any significance comes from the rabid right wing.

Of course, it takes intellectual honesty to understand that, so I'm not holding my breath.

https://twitter.com/DavidNeiwert/status/1051973730824409088

You have no idea what you're talking about.
 
Backing the O/P, the Democrat's Midterm blue wave advantage disappears according to IBD's generic ballot.

Meanwhile, the Democrats' advantage on the "generic ballot" question has all but disappeared. This asks only registered voters whether they'd prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats or Republicans after the midterm elections in November.

The latest poll shows that 45% say they'd prefer Democrats in control, while 43% say they want the GOP to retain control of Congress.

This is a huge swing from last month, which had the Democrats up by 11 points over Republicans (50% to 39%).

Not surprisingly, Republicans have grown more emphatic about keeping control. Support for a GOP Congress among registered Republicans climbed from 86% last month to 92% this month.

But independents shifted toward the GOP as well, with 37% backing a GOP Congress, up from 30% last month. Support among independents for a Democratic Congress dropped from 49% last month to 41% in October.

The IBD/TIPP Poll did find that Democrats have a slight advantage when it comes to enthusiasm about the election. Eighty three percent say they are very or extremely interested in the midterms, compared with 74% for Republicans, and 72% for independents.

Methodology: IBD/TIPP conducted the latest poll from September 27 through October 3. It includes responses from 905 adults nationwide, who were asked questions by live interviewers on phones. The poll's margin of error is +/-3.3 percentage points. The "generic ballot" question includes responses from 846 registered voters. (Toplines from the poll can be found here.)

The IBD/TIPP Poll has been credited as being the most accurate poll in the past four presidential elections, and was one of only two that correctly predicted the outcome of the November 2016 presidential election.
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https://www.investors.com/politics/trump-approval-rating-ibd-tip-poll/
 
trouble13 said:
You realize this literally happens almost every election cycle. For months leading up to an election we are bombarded with polls telling us how the Democrats are the favorites and then in the last 2 weeks the polls magically tighten up and the race becomes competitive.

I don't think the Democrats did themselves any favors in the month of October but I also don't think there was a big momentum swing either. This midterm was always going to be a close contest. The leftwing controlled media just didn't want you to know it. The irony is that it is a former of voter supression, which they claim they are so opposed to.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I467 using Tapatalk
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Some believe the leftist propaganda machine breathlessly reports leftists way ahead in an attempt to demoralize those opposed to leftists. In other words if you demoralize your opponent, they may not vote at all. I'm not sure if those kind of tactics work but they sure didn't in 2016 when the leftist media was reporting Globalist Granny, "had it in the bag," and was on her way to victory with something like a 90% chance of winning.
 
Phys251 said:
2016 is old news. :lol:

Most likely scenario is that the Dems take the House and the GOP keeps the Senate.
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Read my next post; post #11. You'll see the correlation. :2razz:
 
Phys251 said:
Also: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-rasmussen-reports-biased/



There's also this:



The one thing that Rasmussen poll numbers do is establish themselves as best-case scenarios for Republicans.
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There are polls that are reflect more positively for conservatives and polls that reflect more positively towards liberals. Doesn't mean how their polling is wrong, polling is just a sample...That being said it the people that use these polls that are more bias than the polls themselves. If the person was unbiased they would considered the many different polls that target many different people to get a better understanding. But with Trump supporters they will hang their hats on Rasmussen because it reflects better on them.
 
DamnYankee said:
Some believe the leftist propaganda machine breathlessly reports leftists way ahead in an attempt to demoralize those opposed to leftists. In other words if you demoralize your opponent, they may not vote at all. I'm not sure if those kind of tactics work but they sure didn't in 2016 when the leftist media was reporting Globalist Granny, "had it in the bag," and was on her way to victory with something like a 90% chance of winning.
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I'm not claiming it works but it's something I observe in almost every election cycle. I don't pay attention to polls until a few days out from the election. Even then I take them with a grain of salt.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I467 using Tapatalk
 

The IBD/TIPP Poll has been credited as being the most accurate poll in the past four presidential elections, and was one of only two that correctly predicted the outcome of the November 2016 presidential election.
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If by correctly they mean incorrectly since their national poll was designed to measure the national popular vote.
 
trouble13 said:
You realize this literally happens almost every election cycle. For months leading up to an election we are bombarded with polls telling us how the Democrats are the favorites and then in the last 2 weeks the polls magically tighten up and the race becomes competitive.
Click to expand...

I've heard this claim a lot for years and I don't think the polls bear this out at all. From 2008 to 2016 the only race that really has that phenomenon is Trump/Clinton. And in that race the numbers were where they finished all throughout September, with a bit of a spike at the beginning of October, and then back to Clinton +2-3 at the end.

But if you look at really any polling over the last decade, you won't find what you describe.
 
trouble13 said:
I'm not claiming it works but it's something I observe in almost every election cycle. I don't pay attention to polls until a few days out from the election. Even then I take them with a grain of salt.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I467 using Tapatalk
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Yes, I agree. Polls don't really mean much to me but during these election cycles it's hard to avoid them, they seem to be all over the place and the left lives for polls.
 
Anagram said:
If by correctly they mean incorrectly since their national poll was designed to measure the national popular vote.
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According to my link, IBD also did an electoral college poll. In that poll, looks like they came in first for accuracy but you're right they also conducted a popular vote poll too.

Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein: Closest to Electoral College Results (Winner - Trump)

------Poll------ Date Sample MoE Clinton (D) Trump (R) Johnson (L) Stein (G) Spread
Updated Final Results - RCP/WAPO 48.2 46.2 3.3 1.1 Clinton +2
1. IBD/TIPP Tracking 11/4 - 11/7 1026 LV 3.1 43 45 8 2 Trump +2

Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein: Closest to Popular Vote Spread (Winner - Clinton)
------Poll------ Date Sample MoE Clinton (D) Trump (R) Johnson (L) Stein (G) Spread
Updated Final Results - RCP/WAPO 48.2 46.2 3.3 1.1 Clinton +2
1. Rasmussen Reports 11/2 - 11/6 1500 LV 2.5 45 43 4 2 Clinton +2
2. IBD/TIPP Tracking 11/4 - 11/7 1026 LV 3.1 43 45 8 2 Trump +2

Rasmussen Reports Calls It Right - Rasmussen Reports®
 
Redress said:
Rassmussen did decent(though not that much better than other pollers, and not the best) on the presidential race. They did noticeably worse than others on house and senate races. Guess what the races are this year...
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We'll see soon enough how it goes.
 
trixare4kids said:
According to my link, IBD also did an electoral college poll. In that poll, looks like they came in first for accuracy but you're right they also conducted a popular vote poll too.

Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein: Closest to Electoral College Results (Winner - Trump)

------Poll------ Date Sample MoE Clinton (D) Trump (R) Johnson (L) Stein (G) Spread
Updated Final Results - RCP/WAPO 48.2 46.2 3.3 1.1 Clinton +2
1. IBD/TIPP Tracking 11/4 - 11/7 1026 LV 3.1 43 45 8 2 Trump +2

Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein: Closest to Popular Vote Spread (Winner - Clinton)
------Poll------ Date Sample MoE Clinton (D) Trump (R) Johnson (L) Stein (G) Spread
Updated Final Results - RCP/WAPO 48.2 46.2 3.3 1.1 Clinton +2
1. Rasmussen Reports 11/2 - 11/6 1500 LV 2.5 45 43 4 2 Clinton +2
2. IBD/TIPP Tracking 11/4 - 11/7 1026 LV 3.1 43 45 8 2 Trump +2

Rasmussen Reports Calls It Right - Rasmussen Reports®
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That's not an electoral college poll. Those are all of their popular votes polls that Rasmussen somehow sorted by "electoral college results." Which doesn't really make any sense because that's not what the polls were measuring, and the electoral college can't be calculated in a spread percentage like that.
 
Redress said:
Rassmussen did decent(though not that much better than other pollers, and not the best) on the presidential race. They did noticeably worse than others on house and senate races. Guess what the races are this year...
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Yeah, these silly cons whistling in the dark, they forget that the elctoral college isn't a factor this time, and that Rasmussesn screwed up their congressional pollying so badly last time, get ready for the house to actually do it's job, and check and unhinged, unethical, and corrupt administration.:lamo
 
Anagram said:
I've heard this claim a lot for years and I don't think the polls bear this out at all. From 2008 to 2016 the only race that really has that phenomenon is Trump/Clinton. And in that race the numbers were where they finished all throughout September, with a bit of a spike at the beginning of October, and then back to Clinton +2-3 at the end.

But if you look at really any polling over the last decade, you won't find what you describe.
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We will need to agree to disagree. I'm not motivated enough to research and pull up poll history for the various races it happens with. General rule of thumb is the Democrats numbers go down and the Republicans go up as we get closer to an election. That's not to say democrats don't still win or that they flip from the favorite to the underdog. It's also not to say that democrats in deep red states don't still run competitive campaigns either. It's to say the polls generally reflect an overly optimistic prediction for the Democrat and underestimates the Republican until the final days.

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trouble13 said:
We will need to agree to disagree. I'm not motivated enough to research and pull up poll history for the various races it happens with. General rule of thumb is the Democrats numbers go down and the Republicans go up as we get closer to an election. That's not to say democrats don't still win or that they flip from the favorite to the underdog. It's also not to say that democrats in deep red states don't still run competitive campaigns either. It's to say the polls generally reflect an overly optimistic prediction for the Democrat and underestimates the Republican until the final days.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I467 using Tapatalk
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I refuse to agree to disagree on the grounds that I just re-looked all of these up before my last post. The actual numbers don't support your claim that there are these sudden shifts to Republicans in the last few weeks. There's no difference of opinion here, there's just numbers.

2008 GCB: No shift to Republicans.
2008 Obama v. McCain: No shift to Republicans.
2010 GCB: No shift to Republicans.
2012 GCB: No shift to Republicans.
2012 Obama v. Romney: No shift to Republicans.
2014 GCB: No shift to Republicans.
2016 GCB: Shift to Republicans.
2016 Hillary v. Trump: Slight shift to Trump from early October, but Hillary was lower than her final result all throughout September. Which doesn't fit with your narrative of polling companies intentionally spiking results.

And of course this doesn't even take into account the fact that there's no evidence of bias from results. In five of these the polls ended with a slight Republican bias. In 3 of them, there was a slight Democrat bias.

I'd be happy to pull out some individual state races at random from any of those years to show it doesn't happen in those either if you want.
 
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