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Latest generic ballot numbers

MovingPictures

MovingPictures

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The generic ballot is not a measure of the popular vote for Congress, but it's always been a good bench mark for how the midterms are going to go.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=midterms-header

Generic Ballot

Emerson College D +13
Harris Interactive D +7
Morning Consultant D +2
ABC/Washington Post D +14
IBD D+13
YouGov D+6
Suffolk University D+11
Ispos +13
NBC/WSJ +8
Rasmussen D +5
FOX D+11

Average D 10+

Trump Approval

Gallup 41%
YouGov 39%
Emerson 38%
Harris Interactive 46%
IBD 36%
ABC/Washington Post 36%
Suffolk University 40%
Ispos 37%
NBC/WSJ 44%
FOX 45%

Average 40%:lol:

These are the kind of numbers that will result in an easy 40+ seat swing for Democrats, and a possible Senate flip or toss-up.

What's most interesting is that even polls where Trump's approval isn't completely in the gutter, the Democrats still hold a clear 7-8 point advantage.

And before some Einstein brings-up 2016, remember that all of the special elections so far were either on the nose, or understated Democratic turn out, so polling is still a very good measure of where things are at the moment.
 
A good sign, but the November elections are far from a slam dunk. The Russians and the Republicans will do everything they can to subvert and suppress the Democratic vote. But the good news is that the Democratic base is not taking anything for granted this time around.
 
Phys251 said:
A good sign, but the November elections are far from a slam dunk. The Russians and the Republicans will do everything they can to subvert and suppress the Democratic vote. But the good news is that the Democratic base is not taking anything for granted this time around.
Click to expand...

About that....

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/7/18/17585898/young-voter-turnout-polls-midterms-2018


https://www.vox.com/2018/8/29/17795718/poll-millennial-young-vote-2018-midterms

Wide gaps in polling data for desire to vote, however, the lukewarm embrace of actual bread and butter politics remains consistent.
 
Last edited:
Fiddytree said:
About that....

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/7/18/17585898/young-voter-turnout-polls-midterms-2018


https://www.vox.com/2018/8/29/17795718/poll-millennial-young-vote-2018-midterms

Wide gaps in polling data for desire to vote, however, the lukewarm embrace of actual bread and butter politics remains consistent.
Click to expand...

To be fair, the low turnout of young voters has always been a problem. It'll be interesting to see how they fare as compared to past midterms. I suspect they'll turnout a few percentage points higher.
 
Phys251 said:
To be fair, the low turnout of young voters has always been a problem. It'll be interesting to see how they fare as compared to past midterms. I suspect they'll turnout a few percentage points higher.
Click to expand...

Yes, but for the generational cohort, they are also much slower in keeping at pace with previous generations with increasing their participation.
 
Fiddytree said:
Yes, but for the generational cohort, they are also much slower in keeping at pace with previous generations with increasing their participation.
Click to expand...

They haven't really felt a major political force driving them to the polls. Until now. So again, we will see.
 
I am pretty interested to see how much the Stoneman Douglas students have an impact as they have been on a very well organized voter registration campaign. I have a hunch that they drove the Florida Gubernatorial nomination from the Dem side pretty hard. Something has to account for that result because it sure as heck was not money.

The student campaign has been well enough organized and also supported by parents to make me at least consider that combined with the Trump effect on Dem turnout, they might just turn out to be significant in this.
 
MovingPictures said:
The generic ballot is not a measure of the popular vote for Congress, but it's always been a good bench mark for how the midterms are going to go.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=midterms-header

Generic Ballot

Emerson College D +13
Harris Interactive D +7
Morning Consultant D +2
ABC/Washington Post D +14
IBD D+13
YouGov D+6
Suffolk University D+11
Ispos +13
NBC/WSJ +8
Rasmussen D +5
FOX D+11

Average D 10+

Trump Approval

Gallup 41%
YouGov 39%
Emerson 38%
Harris Interactive 46%
IBD 36%
ABC/Washington Post 36%
Suffolk University 40%
Ispos 37%
NBC/WSJ 44%
FOX 45%

Average 40%[emoji38]

These are the kind of numbers that will result in an easy 40+ seat swing for Democrats, and a possible Senate flip or toss-up.

What's most interesting is that even polls where Trump's approval isn't completely in the gutter, the Democrats still hold a clear 7-8 point advantage.

And before some Einstein brings-up 2016, remember that all of the special elections so far were either on the nose, or understated Democratic turn out, so polling is still a very good measure of where things are at the moment.
Click to expand...
The only polls im interested in will taken on nov. 6th

Sent from my SM-T800 using Tapatalk
 
MovingPictures said:
The generic ballot is not a measure of the popular vote for Congress, but it's always been a good bench mark for how the midterms are going to go.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=midterms-header

Generic Ballot

Emerson College D +13
Harris Interactive D +7
Morning Consultant D +2
ABC/Washington Post D +14
IBD D+13
YouGov D+6
Suffolk University D+11
Ispos +13
NBC/WSJ +8
Rasmussen D +5
FOX D+11

Average D 10+

Trump Approval

Gallup 41%
YouGov 39%
Emerson 38%
Harris Interactive 46%
IBD 36%
ABC/Washington Post 36%
Suffolk University 40%
Ispos 37%
NBC/WSJ 44%
FOX 45%

Average 40%:lol:

These are the kind of numbers that will result in an easy 40+ seat swing for Democrats, and a possible Senate flip or toss-up.

What's most interesting is that even polls where Trump's approval isn't completely in the gutter, the Democrats still hold a clear 7-8 point advantage.

And before some Einstein brings-up 2016, remember that all of the special elections so far were either on the nose, or understated Democratic turn out, so polling is still a very good measure of where things are at the moment.
Click to expand...

Red:
The only "Einsteins" who bring up the 2016 presidential election polls and the election outcome are people who either disregard or don't in the first place understand statistics.
 
Phys251 said:
A good sign, but the November elections are far from a slam dunk. The Russians and the Republicans will do everything they can to subvert and suppress the Democratic vote. But the good news is that the Democratic base is not taking anything for granted this time around.
Click to expand...

You’re right liberals are starting to sensor conservatives, and didn’t the FBI tell you that the Russians didn’t change any votes and no Americans were involved


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
MrShangles said:
You’re right liberals are starting to sensor conservatives, and didn’t the FBI tell you that the Russians didn’t change any votes and no Americans were involved


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I don't actually recall the FBI saying anything of the sort. It's true that no votes actually cast were changed. No one ever alleged that. It's impossible to tell whether or not the Russian propaganda campaign changed anyone's mind, one way or the other. The involvement of Americans is still the subject of a rather prominent investigation.
 
bearpoker said:
I don't actually recall the FBI saying anything of the sort. It's true that no votes actually cast were changed. No one ever alleged that. It's impossible to tell whether or not the Russian propaganda campaign changed anyone's mind, one way or the other. The involvement of Americans is still the subject of a rather prominent investigation.
Click to expand...

Muller is investigating tax fraud now, They don’t even say Russian collusion anymore. And Russians spent $150,000 in adds on Facebook and democrats spent billions, what went wrong, why was Facebook taking money from Russians for posting political adds?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Fiddytree said:
Yes, but for the generational cohort, they are also much slower in keeping at pace with previous generations with increasing their participation.
Click to expand...
That might be because many millennials don't seem to "grow-up" until they're breaking past thirty.

Yeah, I know they've got increased challenges in personal finances, employment, and acquiring the education required for success. I'm not going to beat on them too hard. But I've got a kid in her late twenties, and her girlfriends seem perfectly fine in relationships with guys pushing thirty who live at home with Mom & Dad! That was the kiss of death to dating (for a man) during my generation!

And I can't even imagine the awkwardness of leaving the girl in her apartment with her bills and life's struggles come morning, as the guy saunters off back to his parents' basement. Argh! But the several girls I'm speaking of are apparently fine with this arrangement, or so I'm told.
 
MrShangles said:
Muller is investigating tax fraud now, They don’t even say Russian collusion anymore. And Russians spent $150,000 in adds on Facebook and democrats spent billions, what went wrong, why was Facebook taking money from Russians for posting political adds?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Mueller farmed out the tax fraud investigations and doesn't say anything about what he's doing. You think that because he's not out spilling beans and making a fool of himself on cable news shows that he's not doing anything. Keep on thinking that.
 
Chomsky said:
That might be because many millennials don't seem to "grow-up" until they're breaking past thirty.

Yeah, I know they've got increased challenges in personal finances, employment, and acquiring the education required for success. I'm not going to beat on them too hard. But I've got a kid in her late twenties, and her girlfriends seem perfectly fine in relationships with guys pushing thirty who live at home with Mom & Dad! That was the kiss of death to dating (for a man) during my generation!

And I can't even imagine the awkwardness of leaving the girl in her apartment with her bills and life's struggles come morning, as the guy saunters off back to his parents' basement. Argh! But the several girls I'm speaking of are apparently fine with this arrangement, or so I'm told.
Click to expand...

One may not have much to do with the other, however. As graduate school had lengthened, I had to make a choice. Thanks to an influx of workers in one occupational sector, the cost of living was previously quite low and shot up to Manhattan heights in 2 years time, coincidentally right when I was wrapping up my course work. I was still technically a student writing my thesis, though coursework was complete. The jobs I could pursue could not keep up with the cost of living at all--which was the experience of most in the region. I had to start student loan payments immediately and they were not on the low end. I chose to live with my parents until I could be more self-sustained.

But let me say that generational fluxes are fairly common in socio-economic history. For instance, in the pacific northwest in the late 19th century, family farm acreage dwindled, leaving young men financially insecure well into their 20s if not 30s. A rite of passage was to control your own plot of land, but absent that option, what was there? A large number of young men stayed on the family farm well-past the comfort level of their parents and grand parents' generation.
 
Fiddytree said:
One may not have much to do with the other, however. As graduate school had lengthened, I had to make a choice. Thanks to an influx of workers in one occupational sector, the cost of living was previously quite low and shot up to Manhattan heights in 2 years time, coincidentally right when I was wrapping up my course work. I was still technically a student writing my thesis, though coursework was complete. The jobs I could pursue could not keep up with the cost of living at all--which was the experience of most in the region. I had to start student loan payments immediately and they were not on the low end. I chose to live with my parents until I could be more self-sustained.

But let me say that generational fluxes are fairly common in socio-economic history. For instance, in the pacific northwest in the late 19th century, family farm acreage dwindled, leaving young men financially insecure well into their 20s if not 30s. A rite of passage was to control your own plot of land, but absent that option, what was there? A large number of young men stayed on the family farm well-past the comfort level of their parents and grand parents' generation.
Click to expand...
Yes, economics indeed have much to do with it.

Supporting oneself, owning property, marriage, children, all have ways of making us more serious and mature.

There's a Polish saying I was told when growing up, that roughly translates into English as:

"A boy does not become a man, until he owns land"

It's a great saying, and so encapsulates the Polish-American immigrant experience. Growing-up in an urban Polish community, I soon learned nothing is so dear to a Pole as their two-flat!
 
MovingPictures said:
The generic ballot is not a measure of the popular vote for Congress, but it's always been a good bench mark for how the midterms are going to go.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=midterms-header

Generic Ballot

Emerson College D +13
Harris Interactive D +7
Morning Consultant D +2
ABC/Washington Post D +14
IBD D+13
YouGov D+6
Suffolk University D+11
Ispos +13
NBC/WSJ +8
Rasmussen D +5
FOX D+11

Average D 10+

Trump Approval

Gallup 41%
YouGov 39%
Emerson 38%
Harris Interactive 46%
IBD 36%
ABC/Washington Post 36%
Suffolk University 40%
Ispos 37%
NBC/WSJ 44%
FOX 45%

Average 40%:lol:

These are the kind of numbers that will result in an easy 40+ seat swing for Democrats, and a possible Senate flip or toss-up.

What's most interesting is that even polls where Trump's approval isn't completely in the gutter, the Democrats still hold a clear 7-8 point advantage.

And before some Einstein brings-up 2016, remember that all of the special elections so far were either on the nose, or understated Democratic turn out, so polling is still a very good measure of where things are at the moment.
Click to expand...
I'm a bit blown away by how the differential was slowly receding for maybe two months, then recently started shooting for the sky.

I'm feeling better lately about the House. Still don't see the Senate, though.
 
Chomsky said:
I'm a bit blown away by how the differential was slowly receding for maybe two months, then recently started shooting for the sky.

I'm feeling better lately about the House. Still don't see the Senate, though.
Click to expand...
Yeah, a lot people are wondering why the generic ballot and Trump's approval have taken such a hard left turn.

I don't think it's the recent indictments. My hunch is that the "undecided" voters are now coming clean about breaking for Democrats, as well their disapproval of Trump, and that's driving some of the generic ballots up.

The worst news for Republicans? The curve for Democrats is the best it's been since Clinton won in 1992.

DmQR3z8XgAAI7CF.jpg

While a blue wave would be awesome and I expect there to be one, we only need the magic 218 to reach all of our goals.
 
MrShangles said:
You’re right liberals are starting to sensor conservatives, and didn’t the FBI tell you that the Russians didn’t change any votes and no Americans were involved


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

"Sensor conservatives"? Does this mean smelling them?

The FBI didn't tell Phys251 or anyone else that "the Russians didn't change any votes". Not even the FBI would have any way of knowing.
 
MovingPictures said:
Yeah, a lot people are wondering why the generic ballot and Trump's approval have taken such a hard left turn.

I don't think it's the recent indictments. My hunch is that the "undecided" voters are now coming clean about breaking for Democrats, as well their disapproval of Trump, and that's driving some of the generic ballots up.

The worst news for Republicans? The curve for Democrats is the best it's been since Clinton won in 1992.

DmQR3z8XgAAI7CF.jpg

While a blue wave would be awesome and I expect there to be one, we only need the magic 218 to reach all of our goals.
Click to expand...
I think it's a reaction to Trump's week of hell, with Manafort & Cohen.

I also believe in "reversion to the mean", and expect a slight pull-back. In addition, after Labor Day more polls will start using "likely voters" rather than "registered voters", which usually reflects Republican voters better in midterms. We'll see if this year carries that trend.

One other item: I noticed in a recent poll (forget which) the Dem enthusiasm differential had shrunk. It seems the Repubs became a bit more enthusiastic. If so, that definitely concerns me. But regardless, the recent polls are positive.

Also, it's too early for Undecideds to break. More Indies may be leaning Dem, though.
 
Chomsky said:
I think it's a reaction to Trump's week of hell, with Manafort & Cohen.

I also believe in "reversion to the mean", and expect a slight pull-back. In addition, after Labor Day more polls will start using "likely voters" rather than "registered voters", which usually reflects Republican voters better in midterms. We'll see if this year carries that trend.

One other item: I noticed in a recent poll (forget which) the Dem enthusiasm differential had shrunk. It seems the Repubs became a bit more enthusiastic. If so, that definitely concerns me. But regardless, the recent polls are positive.

Also, it's too early for Undecideds to break. More Indies may be leaning Dem, though.
Click to expand...
Enthusiasm isn't really a metric, so I don't worry too much about it. I don't even put any stock in the 'likely voter' metric either, as this is going to be an atypical election, with many people voting that typically don't - mostly on the left side of the aisle.

I have no doubt that come November the conservative voters will show-up, as they are a reliable voting block no matter the election cycle. However, when Democrats vote in mass numbers we are pretty much unbeatable, even if we lack the independent vote like 2012.

Trump has horrible, dreadful numbers with independents, and it won't get better in two months. When you add independents to an already energized Democratic base that is also swaying many non voters (or voters that typically sit midterms out), the Republicans are definitely going to be in for a beating like never before.
 
MovingPictures said:
Enthusiasm isn't really a metric, so I don't worry too much about it. I don't even put any stock in the 'likely voter' metric either, as this is going to be an atypical election, with many people voting that typically don't - mostly on the left side of the aisle.

I have no doubt that come November the conservative voters will show-up, as they are a reliable voting block no matter the election cycle. However, when Democrats vote in mass numbers we are pretty much unbeatable, even if we lack the independent vote like 2012.

Trump has horrible, dreadful numbers with independents, and it won't get better in two months. When you add independents to an already energized Democratic base that is also swaying many non voters (or voters that typically sit midterms out), the Republicans are definitely going to be in for a beating like never before.
Click to expand...
To the bolded:

Actually though it is, and it's in some polls, including some of these ones. And it's critical. You can measure the pulse of the country, and find it's say 45-55% on some candidate. But if the 45% guys are 15% more enthusiastic, the 55% guys are going to lose. Turnout is the critical item in any election. Actually, it's what elections are all about. On election day, everything else is superfluous.
 
Chomsky said:
To the bolded:

Actually though it is, and it's in some polls, including some of these ones. And it's critical. You can measure the pulse of the country, and find it's say 45-55% on some candidate. But if the 45% guys are 15% more enthusiastic, the 55% guys are going to lose. Turnout is the critical item in any election. Actually, it's what elections are all about. On election day, everything else is superfluous.
Click to expand...
The best indicator of voter enthusiasm are the primary ballots, which right now the Democrats have cast 54% to the Republicans 46%. Even more telling is the fact that in 29 of 35 states that have held primaries, the Republican turnout so far is down 30 of those seats, and way off from 2010 levels.

Most of what that is, IMHO, are independent voters that went with the GOP in 2010 and 2014 turning on them.
 
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