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The Steele Dossier in 2018: Everyone’s Favorite Weapon
From the essay:
Now there's some self-evident truth for the empiricist Trumpkins.
From the essay:
Like the issue of Russian collusion in general, the details in the new book “Fire and Fury” or most anything that angers the President, he and his supporters don’t attempt to address specific allegations. Instead, they label whatever they don’t like a lie, pure fiction, a hoax or fake news.
Needless to say, professional investigators approach the dossier very differently. They [haven't] the luxury of accepting it as gospel or blowing it off completely. They ... have to take the allegations seriously, apply professional rigor and employ tradecraft in an effort to run down leads and seek corroborating evidence if warranted. They must ask whether the dossier’s narrative aligns with evidence gathered from other intelligence sources. If the answer to this question had been “no,” investigators would not waste any more time with it. Professional investigators are busy and are judged on results. Regardless of their personal views, they have no interest in promoting opinions and hearsay. Rather, they seek evidence that is rock-solid and verifiable, or they will be embarrassed in court and out of a job. Following these criteria, if the dossier had not proven useful in the broader context of other intelligence leads, it would have remained sidelined as merely one of many sources of information meriting follow-up.
....
In any event, at this point it’s less about using public information to validate the dossier, than it is the complete inability of Trump supporters to provide an alternate narrative. Not being able to adduce evidence to refute its points, they have attacked its pedigree. Calling it complete fantasy, or a pile of trash reeks of desperation and highlights that they have no real defense. Indeed, most people who call it a hoax probably haven’t ever read it. While that may suffice for scoring a talking point on a panel at Fox or CNN, it is meaningless to those trying to determine guilt or innocence. In this sense, Trump’s defenders are not doing him a service. They would do better by attempting to surface information that would be of actual interest to investigators – the people who matter. Those investigating crimes are professionals. They are not swayed by name calling, or the suggestion that it is wholly false (or true). They look at the allegations and closely scrutinize them. It goes without saying that if the President’s defenders believe the dossier is garbage, why all the drama, worry and attacks? Criminal investigators cannot make a case based on garbage.
Certainly, the Steele dossier is only one plausible narrative. Subsequent events have shown that it is not out of the realm of reality. We’ve been able to see with our own eyes behavior that aligns with some of what the dossier presents. On the other hand, given what we’ve learned to date, the Trump team has never been able to provide a counter-narrative. What does the story of innocence look like? Why all the engagement with Russians? Why the highly organized cover-up and lies? Why the attacks on the FBI and Mr. Steele? As Ruth Marcus recently commented in Washington Post, “The lengths to which Trump seems willing to go to shut down this probe and to hide his tracks suggest that something more than his fragile ego is at stake here.”
Needless to say, professional investigators approach the dossier very differently. They [haven't] the luxury of accepting it as gospel or blowing it off completely. They ... have to take the allegations seriously, apply professional rigor and employ tradecraft in an effort to run down leads and seek corroborating evidence if warranted. They must ask whether the dossier’s narrative aligns with evidence gathered from other intelligence sources. If the answer to this question had been “no,” investigators would not waste any more time with it. Professional investigators are busy and are judged on results. Regardless of their personal views, they have no interest in promoting opinions and hearsay. Rather, they seek evidence that is rock-solid and verifiable, or they will be embarrassed in court and out of a job. Following these criteria, if the dossier had not proven useful in the broader context of other intelligence leads, it would have remained sidelined as merely one of many sources of information meriting follow-up.
....
In any event, at this point it’s less about using public information to validate the dossier, than it is the complete inability of Trump supporters to provide an alternate narrative. Not being able to adduce evidence to refute its points, they have attacked its pedigree. Calling it complete fantasy, or a pile of trash reeks of desperation and highlights that they have no real defense. Indeed, most people who call it a hoax probably haven’t ever read it. While that may suffice for scoring a talking point on a panel at Fox or CNN, it is meaningless to those trying to determine guilt or innocence. In this sense, Trump’s defenders are not doing him a service. They would do better by attempting to surface information that would be of actual interest to investigators – the people who matter. Those investigating crimes are professionals. They are not swayed by name calling, or the suggestion that it is wholly false (or true). They look at the allegations and closely scrutinize them. It goes without saying that if the President’s defenders believe the dossier is garbage, why all the drama, worry and attacks? Criminal investigators cannot make a case based on garbage.
Certainly, the Steele dossier is only one plausible narrative. Subsequent events have shown that it is not out of the realm of reality. We’ve been able to see with our own eyes behavior that aligns with some of what the dossier presents. On the other hand, given what we’ve learned to date, the Trump team has never been able to provide a counter-narrative. What does the story of innocence look like? Why all the engagement with Russians? Why the highly organized cover-up and lies? Why the attacks on the FBI and Mr. Steele? As Ruth Marcus recently commented in Washington Post, “The lengths to which Trump seems willing to go to shut down this probe and to hide his tracks suggest that something more than his fragile ego is at stake here.”
Now there's some self-evident truth for the empiricist Trumpkins.
