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I don't.
The latest story is that the case started with George P's conversation with some foreign dignitary in a London bar, but even that's rather fuzzy as there were action taken previous to this, if I'm not mistaken. But the actual starting point, the FBI's 'Paragraph One' - the reasoning for the start of the investigation, hasn't come to public light, and I rather doubt that it ever will.
I feel that the beginnings of the investigation were in the bias of the folks who were in charge. Comey, McCabe, Strzok and Page all seem to have harbored very odd ideas on what their job responsibilities entailed.
I find it odd that Strzok was at the center of all of this as one, single individual in a bureau that employs well over 100,000 people. Was everyone else on leave?
If this is true, what else must be true?
In this case, the "If this is true" part is simply if this investigation started on this flimsy evidence, then there must be something else that was the starting point.
We know that the investigation was started and we know that the folks responsible for its inception were Trump hating ideologues.
Connecting those dots doesn't seem like a leap of faith.