Great. Would you please float me seven figures cash, flexible payment arrangements? :2razz:
The Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy
I personally think the numbers right now look like an absolute bloodbath for the GOP and they're only compounding their problems. The idea of confirming Kavanaugh in October and letting Putin visit the WH in October is just madness, as it will only fire-up liberals more just weeks before the election.
Ohio-12 will be a good benchmark of what they're in for. So far, the polls show an incredibly close race in a district the GOP won with twice as many votes as the last DNC challenger, leading now only by three or four points. If they lose or if its close, that will signal a wave election bigger than even 06'.
Yeah, I'm coming around more & more to the Wave possibility.
Her theory may work, due to her factoring in the extreme polarization of the electorate, and the new Trumpian concept of eschewing broadening your base, for playing to your hardcore base in order to stimulate turnout.
However, I can't say this will work in 2020 for Trump though. I think if he continues down his current path he will lose too many Indies to prevail then. But this hardcore base turnout thing is likely the method to succeed in the midterms, which are all about base turnout to begin with.
Also, I'm very encouraged seeing the Generic Congressional Ballot steadily rising for the Dems, since it's low of 3-1/2pts back around April or so. It's now just passed 8pts, and seems to be trending upward. But more importantly, and dovetailing into Judy Wason's theory, is the Dems are apparently enjoying a huge voter enthusiasm advantage! Every poll I've seen claims double digit differences, with some pushing 20 pts! Yow! We've got to remember that in recent history the midterm enthusiasm gap has always favored the Repubs, by anywhere from 6-10 points, and it resulted in large Repub gains. So we are apparently seeing an enthusiasm gap swing of 16 to mid-20 points. That is freaking huge! I mean, really huge!
It is due to this enthusiasm-differential direction & magnitude change, along with giving some credence to the possibility of Wason's theory prevailing, that I now am wiling to believe there could indeed be a substantial Blue Wave, and it may even be epochal.
We're in uncharted territory now, in the polarized Trumpian world. We are heading into the unknown. So I'm still going to still cautiously claim a Dem floor of a close pick-up of the House. But I'm willing to accept that a large Blue wave may indeed be coming, and I will not at all be surprised if it indeed arrives.
Thanks again for the Wason article, and I hope you don't mind me sharing it if the opportunity presents itself. I already have a reply where I'd like to reference it.
TL;DR I think I'm becoming a believer