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The trade war has begun!

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independentusa

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The trade war has begun with tit-for-tat between the two nations. The Chinese though seem to be winning as far as Trump goes because they are targeting goods from the areas of the country that voted for Trump. We are now up to 60 billion dollars of goods with tariffs from both countries. Trump seemingly going after steel and electronics and the Chinese more agricultural goods. Most farmers voted for Trump and the GOP. This is not going to end well, although Trump says there is no trade war, so don't you worry. Wonder what is going to happen to the stock market today. Read that the futures are down hundreds of points.
 
"The shroud of the Dark side has fallen. Begun, the trade wars have."
 
independentusa said:
The trade war has begun with tit-for-tat between the two nations. The Chinese though seem to be winning as far as Trump goes because they are targeting goods from the areas of the country that voted for Trump. We are now up to 60 billion dollars of goods with tariffs from both countries. Trump seemingly going after steel and electronics and the Chinese more agricultural goods. Most farmers voted for Trump and the GOP. This is not going to end well, although Trump says there is no trade war, so don't you worry. Wonder what is going to happen to the stock market today. Read that the futures are down hundreds of points.
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It's going to be a hard lesson, but you guys gotta learn it sometime. It sucks that people are going to suffer as a result...but maybe they'll learn why populism NEVER works in the process, and manage to remember it for a generation or two.
 
Aaaand as to be expected the DOW dropped 500 points, or 2% in under a minute and is falling fast. Pretty much every modern economist agrees tariffs and trade wars are ultimately bad for both sides involved, but Trump doesn't listen to experts, he only shoots from the hip.

Buckle in folks.
 
OlNate said:
It sucks that people are going to suffer as a result...but maybe they'll learn why populism NEVER works in the process, and manage to remember it for a generation or two.
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Haha, maybe you haven't been paying attention but this crew doesn't learn from reality, they deny that. They "learn" from right-wing media, which will tell them in no uncertain terms that the liberals and their pansy policies are what hurt the economy, and they will believe it.

This is not a lessons-learned era, it's moved to a big-data propaganda state. It is uncharted territory. And remember, many states in the U.S. early on tried to keep slaves and would rather fight a civil war to kill their fellow citizens in order to keep them, and many in their petty minds still nurse those old wounds. Sounds crazy, but then, it's crazy.

(But keep talking sense to us OlNate, I really do like your perspective on things.)
 
RabidAlpaca said:
Aaaand as to be expected the DOW dropped 500 points, or 2% in under a minute and is falling fast. Pretty much every modern economist agrees tariffs and trade wars are ultimately bad for both sides involved, but Trump doesn't listen to experts, he only shoots from the hip.

Buckle in folks.
Click to expand...

I just don't understand this bunch. Trade deals are bad, but trade wars are good, that seems to be Trump's thinking. He says our trade deals are bad, but hasn't done a thing to change them yet, instead begins a trade war. Remember how all of the people who voted for Trump were saying what a great negotiator he is, NOT. Now a lot of those farmers who voted for him will be going broke before this is all over and we can get someone in office to repeal all of these tariffs and end this trade war.
 
independentusa said:
The trade war has begun with tit-for-tat between the two nations. The Chinese though seem to be winning as far as Trump goes because they are targeting goods from the areas of the country that voted for Trump. We are now up to 60 billion dollars of goods with tariffs from both countries. Trump seemingly going after steel and electronics and the Chinese more agricultural goods. Most farmers voted for Trump and the GOP. This is not going to end well, although Trump says there is no trade war, so don't you worry. Wonder what is going to happen to the stock market today. Read that the futures are down hundreds of points.
Click to expand...

China is threatening to target soybeans. That won't have the impact you think it will have. Soybeans, a tender annual, aren't even planted until a couple of weeks after the last frost date. No farmers in the US have planted yet. Just this morning, the local farm report advised that farmers are already switching gears to dry corn, milo, canola, and sunflowers for 2018. Some soybean fields will still produce but not an abundance that can't be sold. Farmers aren't as dumb as you might think they are.
 
independentusa said:
I just don't understand this bunch. Trade deals are bad, but trade wars are good, that seems to be Trump's thinking. He says our trade deals are bad, but hasn't done a thing to change them yet, instead begins a trade war. Remember how all of the people who voted for Trump were saying what a great negotiator he is, NOT. Now a lot of those farmers who voted for him will be going broke before this is all over and we can get someone in office to repeal all of these tariffs and end this trade war.
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If you believe that, you know nothing about farming.
 
What a waste, then again we are talking about Trump. Expect more trade mess. It was monumentally stupid to think China would not respond.
 
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independentusa said:
The trade war has begun with tit-for-tat between the two nations. The Chinese though seem to be winning as far as Trump goes because they are targeting goods from the areas of the country that voted for Trump. We are now up to 60 billion dollars of goods with tariffs from both countries. Trump seemingly going after steel and electronics and the Chinese more agricultural goods. Most farmers voted for Trump and the GOP. This is not going to end well, although Trump says there is no trade war, so don't you worry. Wonder what is going to happen to the stock market today. Read that the futures are down hundreds of points.
Click to expand...

China will be hurt more than US. Exports to us are a good chunk of their economy. Exports to them are a tiny part of ours. Itll raise some prices here, which will create demand for domestic products and even it out. I much prefer free trade, but it cant be one sided.
 
HowardBThiname said:
If you believe that, you know nothing about farming.
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There are many one crop farmers in this country that can't as easily change crops as you think. And it might be way too late to get seed for a different crop as most pre-purchase those seeds in the fall for a better price. I should know as after he retired from the Military my father bought a farm and I helped with farming during the summers when i went to college. I now live near cranberry marshes where the farmers who raise this crop are unable to change crops as easily as you say and this is one of those items with which the Chinese have imposed a 25% tariff. There is already an abudance of cranberries on the market and the price is low, this will put some farmers who raise cranberries out of business. So you might be right about a some farmers, but most are already tied into the crops they had planned for this summer.
 
whatever happened to people willing to fight against actual human rights abuses? unfair labor practices?

do we really want to keep sucking on China's teet for ever and ever as long as we can get cheap crap?

I think we should act while they still need our consumer market more than we need them.
 
HowardBThiname said:
China is threatening to target soybeans. That won't have the impact you think it will have. Soybeans, a tender annual, aren't even planted until a couple of weeks after the last frost date. No farmers in the US have planted yet. Just this morning, the local farm report advised that farmers are already switching gears to dry corn, milo, canola, and sunflowers for 2018. Some soybean fields will still produce but not an abundance that can't be sold. Farmers aren't as dumb as you might think they are.
Click to expand...

US Soybean Export Council has said it ‘regrets’ China’s decision, warning that companies in the US and China will both suffer.

Financial markets have reacted badly, with the price of soybeans tumbling by 5%.

The Soybean Export Council and the Financial markets disagree with you. Perhaps you think they also know nothing?
 
jonny5 said:
China will be hurt more than US. Exports to us are a good chunk of their economy. Exports to them are a tiny part of ours. Itll raise some prices here, which will create demand for domestic products and even it out. I much prefer free trade, but it cant be one sided.
Click to expand...

THe Chinese government will help, as they already do, their industries where our government is already strapped for cash and can not do so. They can easily weather the storm while we can not do so. Yes it will hurt both countries but ours more than theirs.
 
independentusa said:
The trade war has begun with tit-for-tat between the two nations. The Chinese though seem to be winning as far as Trump goes because they are targeting goods from the areas of the country that voted for Trump. We are now up to 60 billion dollars of goods with tariffs from both countries. Trump seemingly going after steel and electronics and the Chinese more agricultural goods. Most farmers voted for Trump and the GOP. This is not going to end well, although Trump says there is no trade war, so don't you worry. Wonder what is going to happen to the stock market today. Read that the futures are down hundreds of points.
Click to expand...

To be fair, the trade wars are long overdue. The imbalance was completely one sided. Not sure this is the best path, but we'll see what happens.
 
Hypothetical said:
whatever happened to people willing to fight against actual human rights abuses? unfair labor practices?

do we really want to keep sucking on China's teet for ever and ever as long as we can get cheap crap?

I think we should act while they still need our consumer market more than we need them.
Click to expand...

We crossed that bridge already. Can't put that toothpaste back in the tube.

And

We need them just as much if not more. If they ever start to balk at our t-bills we will find out that hard lesson.
 
jnug said:
We crossed that bridge already. Can't put that toothpaste back in the tube.

And

We need them just as much if not more. If they ever start to balk at our t-bills we will find out that hard lesson.
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what bridge did we cross already? the "we're not going to care about human rights violations as long as we get cheap crap from it" bridge? well that's shameful.

and you better get ready for some tough times ahead regardless, at some point, if you are going to let China dictate our future.
 
Hypothetical said:
what bridge did we cross already? the "we're not going to care about human rights violations as long as we get cheap crap from it" bridge? well that's shameful.

and you better get ready for some tough times ahead regardless, at some point, if you are going to let China dictate our future.
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Tell that to the family of 4, that is just getting by with both parents working, that they have to pay 25% more for goods. Being high and mighty on your soapbox is easy when you don't have to tread in the ditches.
 
Praxas said:
Tell that to the family of 4, that is just getting by with both parents working, that they have to pay 25% more for goods. Being high and mighty on your soapbox is easy when you don't have to tread in the ditches.
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thanks for assuming that it wouldn't cause me any problems. some things are worth some pain in standing up for.
 
Hypothetical said:
thanks for assuming that it wouldn't cause me any problems. some things are worth some pain in standing up for.
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If you can afford a 25% increase than you aren't having the same problems as the folks I mentioned. I doubt that a 25% to you is going to cause you to go bankrupt, not be able to pay rent, etc.
 
Hypothetical said:
what bridge did we cross already? the "we're not going to care about human rights violations as long as we get cheap crap from it" bridge? well that's shameful.

and you better get ready for some tough times ahead regardless, at some point, if you are going to let China dictate our future.
Click to expand...

We chose globalization and technology over trying to maintain paying $20 an hour for work somebody else was willing to do for $5 an hour. The simple fact is that the world at large is in much better shape from a human rights perspective now than it was 30-40 years ago because much more of the world has grown itself into a higher standard of living. We did a pretty good job handling the first half of the transition toward a more contemporary US economy and then have utterly blown the second half of that transition to smithereens. But going back will just be going back while the rest of the world pushes forward. We have to make amends and do the second half of the job. There is no going back and there is only pain in tariffs. This has been tried to death with bad results to catastrophic results every time.
 
independentusa said:
THe Chinese government will help, as they already do, their industries where our government is already strapped for cash and can not do so. They can easily weather the storm while we can not do so. Yes it will hurt both countries but ours more than theirs.
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No, we have a much more adaptable economy and stable political situation not to mention tons of revenue and global allies. Any problems we have here result in a better situation in the end.
 
independentusa said:
There are many one crop farmers in this country that can't as easily change crops as you think. And it might be way too late to get seed for a different crop as most pre-purchase those seeds in the fall for a better price. I should know as after he retired from the Military my father bought a farm and I helped with farming during the summers when i went to college. I now live near cranberry marshes where the farmers who raise this crop are unable to change crops as easily as you say and this is one of those items with which the Chinese have imposed a 25% tariff. There is already an abudance of cranberries on the market and the price is low, this will put some farmers who raise cranberries out of business. So you might be right about a some farmers, but most are already tied into the crops they had planned for this summer.
Click to expand...

Cranberry farmers, perhaps, but they really aren't located in the states that voted for Trump, as the OP says.

I'm in the Midwest and own a farm, although I'm the tenant, not the producer. Farmers growing hard red and winter wheat bought last year and planted in October for this year's wheat harvest. Some may have already ordered soybeans, corn, milo, sunflowers or canola, but not many. Those are late spring crops and farmers will usually wait to see what how those commodities are trading on the Futures before planning what to plant. The ones who did preorder should still be fine, since there will still be a demand for soybeans, even if China cuts back. And, China is only cutting its own throat with that tariff since the Chinese are major consumers of soy.
 
Aristaeus said:
US Soybean Export Council has said it ‘regrets’ China’s decision, warning that companies in the US and China will both suffer.

Financial markets have reacted badly, with the price of soybeans tumbling by 5%.

The Soybean Export Council and the Financial markets disagree with you. Perhaps you think they also know nothing?
Click to expand...

What do you expect the "Soybean Export Council" to say? That isn't a reflection of the farming industry as a whole, as the OP suggested. The commodities are volatile but soybeans is still higher today than it was last year at this time, that's after the "tumble" you noted.

https://nasdaq.websol.barchart.com/...t=286&startDate=1491319159&endDate=1522855159
 
independentusa said:
THe Chinese government will help, as they already do, their industries where our government is already strapped for cash and can not do so. They can easily weather the storm while we can not do so. Yes it will hurt both countries but ours more than theirs.
Click to expand...

Not with the tariffs they've imposed so far -- their big one, soybeans, will hurt them far more than it will hurt us.

Brazil supplied half of China’s imports last year while the United States shipped around 33 million tonnes, about a third of the total. Replacing those U.S. tonnes will be no easy feat.

Crops in Argentina, the world’s No. 3 producer, have been hit by a drought, cutting exports from there to less than 7 million tonnes in the 2017/18 season, its smallest in a decade, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Outside of Brazil, the United States and Argentina, about 17 million tonnes of soybeans comes from a handful of countries.
Click to expand...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-trade-war-but-may-hit-own-foot-idUSKCN1HB11V
 
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