Trump's ratings are stil pretty high

KLATTU said:

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports®

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 29% who Strongly Approve of the way the president is performing and 42% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -13. (see trends).

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High relative to what? Since his cherry picked highest number is lower than the average of Obama, W, and Clinton for basically their entire first terms, it doesn't seem like his approval is all that high. Almost every poll has had him between 39 and 45 in the last 3 months, with a few below that range but none above, it doesn't seem likely that Trump's approval is at the highest point of the range either.

Source for Obama, Bush, Clinton approval: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Source for Trump's polls: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Polls don't mean anything to our President. I'll bet those who partake in these polls are compensated,especially if it's something negative. They're meaningless,only for a short range discussion.

PeteEU said:

And? I said mid to late 30s, and sure could be 40 as well.. plus margin of error. Point is, Rasmussen has a very well documented GOP bias, so their numbers are higher than it in reality is.

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Documented by a bunch of lw ers. LAFF.

ecofarm said:

A president gets so much credit and blame for an economy that has little to do with his office. Sure a tax plan matters some, but it takes a lot of time to be realized and lag from different plans start to overlap.

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Three to five years, I have been told, is the average time it takes for an economic intervention to have an impact. Five years ago who was president?

KLATTU said:

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports®

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 29% who Strongly Approve of the way the president is performing and 42% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -13. (see trends).

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Highest compared to who? Lowest first-year approval since these polls were taken.

Approval polls mean next to nothing. Votes count.

Well I suspect trump will be losing some approval points over this one. Outgoing VA Sec was fine..yet another trump cabinet member taking advantage of his position. But who on God's green earth is going to believe that Trump's personal doctor, the white house physician with no administrative experience whatsoever is going to be able to run this massive organization called the Veterans Administration with God knows how many Vets relying upon it.

So much for "we care about our wonderful military". So go ahead with the "what a pessimist" comments trump supporters as you try to rationalize this one. While he is a Naval Officer, try as I might, I cannot find one single piece of evidence that he has any administrative experience at all and we are not looking for a guy to ask us to say "ahhhhhhh". The department needs an administrator.

Just for clarification, there are God only knows how many MD there are with administrative experience, even MD's with military and administrative experience....BUT NOOOOOO!!!!

Based on the low unemployment rate (a trend started by Obama) and the overall positive state of the economy (again, a trend started by Obama) Trump's numbers are historically LOW for our current economic climate.

Jack Hays said:

Well, no. New York​ is staunchly anti-Trump.

Why Are Trump's Approval Ratings on the Rise?
Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine

". . . There’s been a new buzz this week because two surveys absolutely guaranteed to get media attention — one from CNN and the other from the Associated Press — both showed the president’s job approval rating jumping seven points in the last month. Both, as it happens, had the same numbers both months: 35 percent in February and 42 percent in March. So once again, the speculation began: What might be lifting Trump’s popularity? Was it the economy or the tax bill? And was this the beginning of a rise that could stun the world this November, and then keep him in office through (yikes!) 2024? . . . "

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Rasmussen has consistently polled Trump five or more points higher than most other polls. This is typical of Rasmussen, the only national poll that in the closing days of the 2008 election had Romney the probable winner.

Trump's average approval rating has risen, however, since the tax bill. In recent days it has fallen back a little. Silver's Fivethirtyeight.com has daily poll averages for anyone interested. Silver himself, you may remember, was a skilled pollster for the New York Times, who uniquely correctly called the 2008 race in every state.

JackA said:

Rasmussen has consistently polled Trump five or more points higher than most other polls. This is typical of Rasmussen, the only national poll that in the closing days of the 2008 election had Romney the probable winner.

Trump's average approval rating has risen, however, since the tax bill. In recent days it has fallen back a little. Silver's Fivethirtyeight.com has daily poll averages for anyone interested. Silver himself, you may remember, was a skilled pollster for the New York Times, who uniquely correctly called the 2008 race in every state.

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My post has nothing to do with Rasmussen.

KLATTU said:

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports®

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 29% who Strongly Approve of the way the president is performing and 42% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -13. (see trends).

Click to expand...

Due to the unique nature of this President and the reasons his base voted for him, I think you can ultimately see a "real" approval rating of 47%.

Cardinal said:

Due to the unique nature of this President and the reasons his base voted for him, I think you can ultimately see a "real" approval rating of 47%.

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I don’t know what this means. His average polled approval rating has ranged between 38.5 and 40.8 percent for months. His “real” influence with voters has been manifested in the general wipe out of Republicans in special elections.

JackA said:

Rasmussen has consistently polled Trump five or more points higher than most other polls. This is typical of Rasmussen, the only national poll that in the closing days of the 2008 election had Romney the probable winner.

Trump's average approval rating has risen, however, since the tax bill. In recent days it has fallen back a little. Silver's Fivethirtyeight.com has daily poll averages for anyone interested. Silver himself, you may remember, was a skilled pollster for the New York Times, who uniquely correctly called the 2008 race in every state.

Click to expand...

After Silver successfully called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009.[5]

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In the 2012 United States presidential election, Silver correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.[8]

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Not to bust your balls (I lean left of center), Obama defeated McCAIN in 2008..... and ROMNEY in 2012.

In your Post #33, you seem to blur the two races. In any event, Nate Silver's results give him ample credibility.

No matter when or how it happens, You can anticipate me enthusiastically celebrating the end of President Chump's presidency!

Trippy Trekker said:

Not to bust your balls (I lean left of center), Obama defeated McCAIN in 2008..... and ROMNEY in 2012.

In your Post #33, you seem to blur the two races. In any event, Nate Silver's results give him ample credibility.

No matter when or how it happens, You can anticipate me enthusiastically celebrating the end of President Chump's presidency!

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Yeah, I meant 2012 in both places. Thanks

JackA said:

I don’t know what this means. His average polled approval rating has ranged between 38.5 and 40.8 percent for months. His “real” influence with voters has been manifested in the general wipe out of Republicans in special elections.

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There's nothing you've said that's wrong, but the "coming home" factor that will apply to trump in 2020 will be absolute. Since what we've been seeing has essentially been a cult of personality, approval for trump doesn't translate into approval for other candidates in his party, which is one factor (but not the only one) for why democrats have been doing well in special elections. But democrats need to prepare themselves for the fact that 2020 will not look like now.

It cannot be overstated that a populist president factor changes nearly everything.

KLATTU said:

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports®

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 29% who Strongly Approve of the way the president is performing and 42% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -13. (see trends).

Click to expand...

I prefer to go with RCP averages. It's the averaging of the eleven latest polls which tends to eliminate any skewed polls and certain biases. It also reduces the margin of error which every poll has.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Trump has pretty much stayed between 38-42 using the RCP averages so far for his entire presidency. Which means he hasn't gained much support or lost much. This steadiness is unheard of. It seems most people have made up their minds what they think about him one way or the other. They aren't changing them.

Obama on the other hand over the same time period saw a steady decline from 67% in January of 2009 down to 47% at the end of March 2010. Whereas Trump's was 44% at the end of January 2017 down to 41.5% today. Bush II started out at 51% rose to 86% right after 9-11 and fell to 79% at the end of March 2002. Bush II isn't a good example because of 9-11.

Bill Clinton started out at 58%, fell to 39% June of 1993 rose back to 52% at the end of March of 1994. This up and down cycles are more normal. Although Bill dropped back to 41% just prior to the 1993 midterms in which the democrats lost 54 seats in the house. Obama had dropped to 43% in November of 2010 when the Democrats lost 63 seats in the house. Bush II was at 63% when his party gained 8 seats in the house in November of 2002. Bush II is the only president to have had his party gain seats in the House in his first midterm since FDR. Every other president lost seats and if not for 9-11 uniting the country behind Bush II and his party, I am sure Bush II wouldn't be the lone exception.

Cardinal said:

There's nothing you've said that's wrong, but the "coming home" factor that will apply to trump in 2020 will be absolute. Since what we've been seeing has essentially been a cult of personality, approval for trump doesn't translate into approval for other candidates in his party, which is one factor (but not the only one) for why democrats have been doing well in special elections. But democrats need to prepare themselves for the fact that 2020 will not look like now.

It cannot be overstated that a populist president factor changes nearly everything.

Click to expand...

I think Trump is far from being a populist president. He has had his base which has remained constant since the primaries. Not gaining many or losing many. He has lost a lot of independents who supported him in the general election though. Trump won independents 46-42 with 12% voting third party. That support has eroded as can be seen in his national approval polls dropping from 44% down to 41% since January of 2017. Republicans and Democrats approval or disapproval has remained basically unchanged throughout Trump's entire presidency.

Independents at the end of January 2017, shortly after Trump inauguration gave him a 44-41 job approval over disapproval. About as close to the election results one is going to get. But today, independents approval has dropped from 44 down to 37. Their disapproval has risen from 41 to 54%.

Trump, far from being a populist president has played strictly to his base. He hasn't even attempted to expand it by adding some independent support. It's like he doesn't give a darn about additional support, just keeping his base happy. Trump in my opinion is far from being a traditional Republican, in that aspect I can see the word populist used. But I like Larry Sabato's definition better. He classified Trump as an independent running as a Republican. A lot of lifelong more traditional Republicans don't accept him as one of theirs either.

Perotista said:

I think Trump is far from being a populist president. He has had his base which has remained constant since the primaries. Not gaining many or losing many. He has lost a lot of independents who supported him in the general election though. Trump won independents 46-42 with 12% voting third party. That support has eroded as can be seen in his national approval polls dropping from 44% down to 41% since January of 2017. Republicans and Democrats approval or disapproval has remained basically unchanged throughout Trump's entire presidency.

Independents at the end of January 2017, shortly after Trump inauguration gave him a 44-41 job approval over disapproval. About as close to the election results one is going to get. But today, independents approval has dropped from 44 down to 37. Their disapproval has risen from 41 to 54%.

Trump, far from being a populist president has played strictly to his base. He hasn't even attempted to expand it by adding some independent support. It's like he doesn't give a darn about additional support, just keeping his base happy. Trump in my opinion is far from being a traditional Republican, in that aspect I can see the word populist used. But I like Larry Sabato's definition better. He classified Trump as an independent running as a Republican. A lot of lifelong more traditional Republicans don't accept him as one of theirs either.

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Your post works on an incorrect understanding of what I'm talking about. Go to wiki under "populism."

Cardinal said:

There's nothing you've said that's wrong, but the "coming home" factor that will apply to trump in 2020 will be absolute. Since what we've been seeing has essentially been a cult of personality, approval for trump doesn't translate into approval for other candidates in his party, which is one factor (but not the only one) for why democrats have been doing well in special elections. But democrats need to prepare themselves for the fact that 2020 will not look like now.

It cannot be overstated that a populist president factor changes nearly everything.

Click to expand...

It's been shown that Trump's "cult of personality" following doesn't necessarily help other Republicans, but it's also true that Trump's overall popularity seen some erosion, probably five to seven points or so since the election. He can't win with his fanatic base alone. Now he's beginning to lose influential pols on the Right. When Ann Coulter, once a true believer, calls him out as a "shallow, lazy ignoramus", as she did the other day, it bodes not well.

JackA said:

It's been shown that Trump's "cult of personality" following doesn't necessarily help other Republicans, but it's also true that Trump's overall popularity seen some erosion, probably five to seven points or so since the election. He can't win with his fanatic base alone. Now he's beginning to lose influential pols on the Right. When Ann Coulter calls him out as a "shallow, lazy ignoramus", as she did the other day, it bodes not well.

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I'm not concerned with what Coulter says. If Trump does something she likes tomorrow, she'll be right back on board. And so will everybody else who voted for him. What's important to remember is that political rules that apply to past Presidents don't apply to trump. Trump's approval may dip for one reason or another, and then for completely unorthodox reasons that we don't even properly understand, his approval will go back up again, seemingly apropos of nothing or even in direct contrast to what should be. The people who are wavering back and forth are operating on a set of expectations you and I are not. Over the past few weeks (minus this one since it's actually been extraordinarily quiet), Trump has been a particularly chaotic, scandal-plagued President, and his numbers have been going up. In order to understand this President and his support, you have to throw out most of what you know to be true from precedent...but only as it applies to his base! The normal rules still hold for Independents and Liberals.

KLATTU said:

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports®

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 29% who Strongly Approve of the way the president is performing and 42% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -13. (see trends).

Click to expand...

You consider -13 to be high huh? That's a joke.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

In the last four days, there have been seven different polls that tracked Trump's approval rating. You picked Rasmussen because they're consistently biased towards conservatives. They are the only poll that has Trump with an approval rating that's within double digits of his disapproval rating.

But please, continue to believe this bull**** all you like. It's only going to help decent Americans take back control of their country sooner rather than later.

Cardinal said:

Your post works on an incorrect understanding of what I'm talking about. Go to wiki under "populism."

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Wiki itself states there are many different definitions. I always looked upon populism or a populist president or governor or akin. To that which reflects the will of the people. Which is one of the definitions of populism. In other words a president in this case which reflects and govern's according to the wants and wishes, the will of the people. Whereas with his attempt to repeal Obamacare Trump went against the wishes or wants of the people. Same with tax reform. Trump may have opposed the will of the people more than he has gone along with it.

Trump has govern basically according to the will of his base. A minority when it comes to the people or the entire electorate. Hence going against or governing opposite of the populace wants and wishes is the opposite of being a populist president. More in line with being an elitist or an ideologue.

Now you may have taken any one of the different definitions and thus classified him as a populist. In which case we disagree on the definition of a populist president and whether or not Trump is one. So be it.

Perotista said:

Wiki itself states there are many different definitions. I always looked upon populism or a populist president or governor or akin. To that which reflects the will of the people. Which is one of the definitions of populism. In other words a president in this case which reflects and govern's according to the wants and wishes, the will of the people. Whereas with his attempt to repeal Obamacare Trump went against the wishes or wants of the people. Same with tax reform. Trump may have opposed the will of the people more than he has gone along with it.

Trump has govern basically according to the will of his base. A minority when it comes to the people or the entire electorate. Hence going against or governing opposite of the populace wants and wishes is the opposite of being a populist president. More in line with being an elitist or an ideologue.

Now you may have taken any one of the different definitions and thus classified him as a populist. In which case we disagree on the definition of a populist president and whether or not Trump is one. So be it.

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But the primary working definition is "a political philosophy supporting the rights and power of the people in their struggle against a privileged elite.[1] Critics of populism have described it as a political approach that seeks to disrupt the existing social order by solidifying and mobilizing the animosity of the "commoner" or "the people" against "privileged elites" and the "establishment"."

Which describes the current situation to a T.

Cardinal said:

I'm not concerned with what Coulter says. If Trump does something she likes tomorrow, she'll be right back on board. And so will everybody else who voted for him. What's important to remember is that political rules that apply to past Presidents don't apply to trump. Trump's approval may dip for one reason or another, and then for completely unorthodox reasons that we don't even properly understand, his approval will go back up again, seemingly apropos of nothing or even in direct contrast to what should be. The people who are wavering back and forth are operating on a set of expectations you and I are not. Over the past few weeks (minus this one since it's actually been extraordinarily quiet), Trump has been a particularly chaotic, scandal-plagued President, and his numbers have been going up. In order to understand this President and his support, you have to throw out most of what you know to be true from precedent...but only as it applies to his base! The normal rules still hold for Independents and Liberals.

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I suspect Trump may be concerned with what she says.

His numbers were going up. In past few days they've dipped. Gallup and Public Policy are both out with new polls putting him at 39 percent while Ipsos has a new poll showing him at 38 percent. Rasmussen as usual is the outlier with a poll at 45 percent, skewing the average.

JackA said:

I suspect Trump may be concerned with what she says.

His numbers were going up. In past few days they've dipped. Gallup and Public Policy are both out with new polls putting him at 39 percent while Ipsos has a new poll showing him at 38 percent. Rasmussen as usual is the outlier with a poll at 45 percent, skewing the average.

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There's very little coherent data to understand the ups and downs well enough to draw a pattern. We only have two solid data points 1)The firing of Comey saw an extreme dip, 2)the healthcare debate, while it was in the news, saw an extreme dip. For a while it was common wisdom that quiet times saw a rise in approval, but that hasn't been strictly true either.

Cardinal said:

But the primary working definition "a political philosophy supporting the rights and power of the people in their struggle against a privileged elite.[1] Critics of populism have described it as a political approach that seeks to disrupt the existing social order by solidifying and mobilizing the animosity of the "commoner" or "the people" against "privileged elites" and the "establishment"."

Which describes the current situation to a T.

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Trump definitely has gone against the establishment to include what is now his new political party for the last six years. I'd call Trump more of an anarchist than a populist. One who brought chaos to our political system and governance. But again, he isn't a true anarchist in that he wants to be the ruler. The ruler over the chaos he has caused. But that seems to be the case in all those who professed anarchy. Anarchy with them at the head, the boss, the sole ruler.

Trump did accomplish your definition during the primaries and general election. He did mobilize 35% of the GOP to overthrow the establishment or elites of the Republican Party. But it took an extra large field of candidates for him to be successful along with the remainder of the GOP unwilling and unable to decide on a candidate to unite behind to oppose him. The general election was more against Hillary. Trump didn't need to mobilize independents to go against the elites as 70% of them had an unfavorable view of and seen Hillary in a negative light. In fact 54% of all independents disliked both Trump and Clinton that it came to voting for the one you least wanted to lose. Still 12% or 12 out of that 54 voted third party. Voted against both.

If Trump is a populist, he is failing with independents to turn them against the elites. They have turned against him. If Trump is a populist, they don't want his brand of populism. Only his base does. I think you will see the rejection of Trump's brand of populism in the midterms. Perhaps so much so the Republicans won't be renominating him for 2020.