By Toluse Olorunnipa
March 23, 2018
Trump Country looks to be hit hardest as China strikes back against new tariffs the U.S. president announced Thursday. U.S. agriculture and the president’s rural political base are in China’s sights as it weighs retaliation after Donald Trump slapped tariffs on at least $50 billion in Chinese imports. In its initial counter-strike, China announced a 25 percent levy on U.S. pork imports -- a heavy blow to Iowa, the top pork-producing state and a political battleground that swung to Trump in 2016 after going for Democrat Barack Obama in the previous two elections. China has plenty of leverage over the Farm Belt voters who helped elect Trump. He captured 61 percent of the vote in U.S. rural areas and small towns, according to exit polls. The Asian nation is the most important foreign customer for U.S. agriculture; China purchased about one-third of the entire U.S. soybean harvest last year. “We do not want a trade war with the United States or with anybody else. But we are not afraid of it,” Chinese ambassador Cui Tiankai said in a video posted to the U.S. embassy’s Facebook page. “If somebody tries to impose a trade war on us, we will certainly fight back and retaliate. If people want to play tough, we will play tough with them and see who will last longer.”
Any hit to agricultural producers’ earnings would be especially painful as falling commodity prices already are hurting rural America. U.S. farm income is forecast to drop 6.7 percent this year to its lowest level since 2006, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that assumed normal trade relations with China. “Were farmers faced with falling prices for the exports and higher prices at home because of the import tariffs, the popularity of the tariffs would diminish quickly,” Mike Jakeman, a global analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said by email. “This is a high-risk strategy for the U.S. administration and one that is likely to weaken, rather than strengthen, the global economy.” Republicans including Chuck Grassley of Iowa, which is also the nation’s biggest soybean-producing state, raised concerns about Chinese retaliation against American farmers. Senator Michael Bennet, a Democrat from Colorado, also expressed his displeasure at the potential impact on rural areas. “Our farmers and ranchers want to be able to export the goods that they are producing here in the United States,” Bennet said. “They don’t need sympathy; they need the administration to act responsibly.”
